Defensive Scan

Scan

Defensive Scan

Scan symbols 13
TSNCOSTTHRLMCDTGTEHDEHRLSBUXWMTEVZXLPXLU
Watchlists 1
@defensive
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 34 rows · screens, not recommendations

Defensives are NOT acting defensive — the classic staples (COST RSI 38, TSN RSI 31, WMT -9.2% 30D) are getting sold while discretionary-tilted names (TGT +15.3% 3M, HD +11.4% 30D, HRL +19.3% 30D) lead. In a risk-on tape the defensive sleeve is the laggard; the sector ETFs (XLP/XLU) are flat/basing, confirming no flight-to-safety bid.

Source: defensive.json. Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-18; some names 06-16/06-17 (stale) flagged inline.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Defensives lagging in a risk-on tape — no flight-to-safety bid; XLP basing (RSI 46, flat), XLU basing (RSI 52, flat). Classic staples (COST/TSN/WMT) being sold; discretionary-tilt (TGT/HD/HRL) leads
Leaders HRL (+19.3% 30D, RSI 68), TGT (+15.3% 3M, RSI 63, -3.2% from ATH), HD (+11.4% 30D, RSI 62), ECL (+9.8% 30D, RSI 59)
Laggards TSN (RSI 31↓, -16.6% 30D, -17.6% from ATH), COST (RSI 38, -13.1% 30D, basing), T (RSI 38, -16.0% 3M, strong-down), PPC (RSI 47, -22.1% 3M, collapse), WMT (-9.2% 30D)
Key insight TSN at RSI 31 (near oversold) after -16.6% 30D — protein/chicken complex (TSN/PPC) breaking down hard; meanwhile HRL (also protein) ripped +19.3% 30D. Within "defensive food," sharp bifurcation

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi% Signal
TSN $55.46 31.2 ↓ -6.5% -3.35% -16.56% -6.19% -17.62% 🔍 Watch
COST $951.45 37.9 ↓ -3.0% -2.94% -13.06% -2.25% -13.23% 🔍 Watch
T $23.16 38.4 ↓ -3.5% +3.88% -5.20% -15.97% -22.26% ❌ Don't Buy (06-16, 2d stale)
XLP $83.30 45.7 -0.7% -2.62% -1.61% +1.62% -5.05% 🔒 Hold
PPC $29.09 46.5 +0.6% -3.17% +2.57% -22.07% -42.46% ❌ Don't Buy (06-16, 2d stale)
WMT $121.03 47.4 +0.8% +1.55% -9.23% -2.86% -10.45% 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale)
VZ $46.73 47.6 -1.0% +4.76% -0.06% -6.11% -9.58% 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale)
XLU $44.76 51.5 +0.8% +0.54% -0.53% -3.82% -5.73% 🔒 Hold
SBUX $101.68 54.0 +1.7% +3.62% -4.62% +4.82% -6.61% 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale)
LOW $224.02 56.0 +4.2% +2.14% +2.75% -6.09% -23.56% 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale)
MCD $278.61 59.0 -0.4% +1.91% -0.11% -11.16% -18.48% 🔍 Watch
ECL $269.12 59.4 +3.8% -0.02% +9.82% +4.31% -12.98% 📈 Accumulate
HD $334.28 61.9 +5.1% +0.39% +11.36% +2.61% -21.67% 📈 Accumulate
TGT $133.40 62.6 +5.0% +5.04% +8.10% +15.33% -3.24% 📈 Accumulate (06-16, 2d stale)
HRL $24.33 68.2 +5.1% -1.43% +19.26% +10.29% -24.17% ⚠️ Approaching OB (06-17)

Tier Analysis

Oversold / Breaking Down (RSI < 45)

  • TSN ($55.46, RSI 31) — Tyson Foods: -16.6% 30D, golden cross still intact but price -12.1% below SMA50. Protein/chicken complex weakness; near oversold. Watch for RSI < 30 capitulation entry, but trend is down.
  • COST ($951.45, RSI 38) — Costco: -13.1% 30D, basing, golden cross. Quality compounder in a sharp pullback (-13.2% from ATH). Premium-valuation de-rate; watch for stabilization.
  • T ($23.16, RSI 38) — AT&T: strong-down, death-cross, -16% 3M, -22.3% from ATH. Telecom de-rating; no entry. (06-16, 2d stale)

Neutral / Basing (RSI 45–60)

  • PPC ($29.09, RSI 47) — Pilgrim's Pride: collapse regime, -22.1% 3M, -42.5% from ATH, death-cross. Chicken complex broken. Avoid. (06-16, 2d stale)
  • WMT ($121.03, RSI 47) — Walmart: -9.2% 30D, basing, golden cross, -10.5% from ATH. Pullback after a strong run; thesis intact, just digesting. Watch. (06-16, 2d stale)
  • VZ ($46.73, RSI 48) — Verizon: basing, golden cross, +7.4% vs SMA200. Telecom yield play; flat 30D. (06-16, 2d stale)
  • XLP ($83.30, RSI 46) — Consumer Staples ETF: basing, -5% from ATH, flat. No flight-to-safety bid. The sleeve as a whole is dead money in this tape.
  • XLU ($44.76, RSI 52) — Utilities ETF: basing, flat, -5.7% from ATH. Same story — defensive sectors are not catching a bid.
  • SBUX ($101.68, RSI 54) — Starbucks: uptrend, golden cross, +11.9% vs SMA200, -6.6% from ATH. Turnaround intact but -4.6% 30D pullback. (06-16, 2d stale)
  • LOW ($224.02, RSI 56) — Lowe's: strong-down regime despite RSI 56; death-cross, -23.6% from ATH. Reclaiming SMA20 but below SMA50/200. (06-16, 2d stale)
  • MCD ($278.61, RSI 59) — McDonald's: pullback, -11.2% 3M, death-cross, -18.5% from ATH. The classic defensive is itself weak. Watch.

Momentum / Leading (RSI 60–68)

  • ECL ($269.12, RSI 59) — Ecolab: +9.8% 30D, reclaiming above SMA200. Specialty-chem defensive showing relative strength. Accumulate.
  • HD ($334.28, RSI 62) — Home Depot: +11.4% 30D, weak-up reclaiming SMA20/50; still -21.7% from ATH and death-cross. Housing-discretionary bid returning.
  • TGT ($133.40, RSI 63) — Target: strong-up, golden cross, +15.3% 3M, near ATH (-3.2%), +26.5% vs SMA200. The leader of the sleeve — discretionary-retail re-rate. (06-16, 2d stale)
  • HRL ($24.33, RSI 68) — Hormel: +19.3% 30D, +11.8% vs SMA50, RSI 68 approaching overbought. Protein-defensive ripping while TSN/PPC break down. Don't chase. (06-17)

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 30D% Setup
TGT $133.40 <$130 62.6 +8.1% Sleeve leader; near ATH; GC; +26.5% vs SMA200; pullback to SMA20 = add
ECL $269.12 <$262 59.4 +9.8% Specialty-chem defensive; reclaiming SMA200; relative strength
COST $951.45 <$920 37.9 -13.1% Quality compounder; -13% from ATH; GC intact; watch for RSI stabilization
WMT $121.03 <$118 47.4 -9.2% Pullback after run; GC; thesis intact; watch for trend re-confirm
TSN $55.46 <$54 31.2 -16.6% Near oversold; protein complex weak; only for RSI < 30 capitulation probe

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD XLP, XLU Sector ETFs basing flat; no flight-to-safety but no breakdown either
📈 ACCUMULATE TGT, ECL, HD Strong-up / relative-strength leaders with momentum + golden cross / SMA reclaim
🔍 WATCH TSN, COST, WMT, VZ, SBUX, LOW, MCD Pullbacks with intact-ish theses; wait for RSI/trend confirmation
⚠️ APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT HRL RSI 68, +19.3% 30D — don't chase the protein-defensive rip
❌ DON'T BUY T, PPC Strong-down / collapse, death-cross, -22 to -42% from ATH; structural declines

What Changed

  • Defensives are the laggard sleeve — in a risk-on tape, XLP (RSI 46) and XLU (RSI 52) are both basing flat. No flight-to-safety bid; the defensive trade is dead money right now.
  • TSN breakdown (RSI 31) — Tyson -16.6% 30D into near-oversold; the chicken/protein complex (TSN + PPC -22% 3M) is breaking down hard.
  • HRL protein-defensive rip — Hormel +19.3% 30D, RSI 68 — same "protein food" bucket as TSN but ripping. Sharp intra-sleeve bifurcation.
  • COST -13.1% 30D — Costco the premium-quality staple in a sharp pullback (RSI 38); -13.2% from ATH. Valuation de-rate, golden cross still intact.
  • TGT leads (+15.3% 3M, near ATH) — discretionary-tilted retail (TGT) is the sleeve's strongest name; with HD (+11.4% 30D), the bid is in discretionary, not staples.
  • MCD weak — even the classic defensive McDonald's is in pullback (-11.2% 3M, death-cross). The whole staples-anchor cohort is soft.

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
XLP + XLU both basing flat in a risk-on tape No flight-to-safety bid — defensives are the laggard, not the hedge, right now
TSN (RSI 31) breaking down while HRL (RSI 68) rips "Defensive food" is not homogeneous — protein complex bifurcated hard
TGT/HD leading vs COST/WMT lagging Discretionary-tilt beating pure-staples — risk appetite even inside the defensive sleeve

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Buying the defensive sleeve as a tape hedge XLP/XLU are flat — defensives only hedge when there's a flight-to-safety bid, which isn't present
Treating COST's pullback as a falling knife -13% from ATH with golden cross intact = quality digesting, not breaking — but wait for RSI to stabilize before adding

Open Questions

  • TSN at RSI 31: capitulation entry near, or does the protein-complex breakdown have further to run? (vs HRL ripping — why the divergence?)
  • COST -13% from ATH: is the premium-valuation de-rate finished, or more multiple compression to come?
  • Does the discretionary-over-staples leadership (TGT/HD vs COST/WMT) persist, or rotate back if the tape turns risk-off?
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Jun 16 ScanDefensive Scan Jun 25 ScanDefensive Scan Jun 26 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 7 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 11 ScanDefensive Scan May 29 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 17 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 25 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 28 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 31 ScanDefensive Scan

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