Defensive Scan
Scan
Defensive Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 29 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/2026-05-29-defensive-scan.md
EOW tape: defensive sector broadly weak — WMT capitulating (RSI 28.7), COST approaching oversold (RSI 34.1), staples ETF XLP at -6% 3M; only TGT and HRL show relative strength.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 Bearish — defensive/staples rotation is off; consumer names losing ground to risk-on AI/semi surge; WMT/COST in oversold territory |
| Leaders | TGT (+13.3% 3M, RSI 54.5, golden cross), HRL (+11% 7D surprise bounce, RSI 68.3), SBUX (+3% 3M with golden cross) |
| Laggards | WMT (RSI 28.7, -12% 30D), COST (RSI 34.1, -5.6% 30D), PPC (-33% 3M, -44% from ATH), MCD (-15% 3M, deathcross) |
| Key insight | WMT crosses into capitulation at RSI 28.7 — quality name at potential entry zone, though -9% below SMA20; COST also approaching oversold at RSI 34.1 |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | $115.75 | 28.7 ↓ | -9.1% | -0.45% | -12.10% | -8.57% | -14.36% | weak-down | ✅ Oversold Entry |
| TSN | $61.02 | 32.6 ↓ | -7.8% | -6.30% | -4.76% | -5.25% | -12.18% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| COST | $956.32 | 34.1 ↓ | -6.6% | -3.04% | -5.60% | -4.49% | -12.78% | weak-down | 📈 Accumulate |
| LOW | $214.36 | 37.1 ↓ | -3.4% | +1.19% | -10.23% | -16.25% | -26.85% | strong-down | 🔍 Watch |
| PPC | $28.31 | 35.8 | -2.7% | -0.66% | -14.47% | -33.15% | -44.01% | strong-down | ❌ Don't Buy |
| SBUX | $99.16 | 39.1 | -5.0% | -2.17% | -5.31% | +3.08% | -8.93% | strong-up | 📈 Accumulate |
| T | $24.80 | 41.5 | -1.2% | -1.89% | -5.09% | -10.53% | -16.75% | down | 🔍 Watch |
| XLU | $44.42 | 41.3 | -1.4% | -1.06% | -5.19% | -5.57% | -7.07% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| XLP | $82.91 | 42.6 | -1.8% | -0.32% | -1.66% | -6.01% | -8.02% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| MCD | $279.20 | 41.9 | -1.2% | -1.15% | -4.90% | -15.16% | -17.40% | strong-down | 🔍 Watch |
| ECL | $256.00 | 47.6 | +0.9% | +3.02% | -1.77% | -15.41% | -17.22% | strong-down | 🔍 Watch |
| HD | $317.14 | 49.1 | +1.5% | +2.54% | -3.55% | -13.90% | -25.68% | strong-down | 🔍 Watch |
| VZ | $47.81 | 51.8 | +0.4% | -0.66% | -0.46% | -2.90% | -7.49% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| TGT | $127.07 | 54.5 | +1.7% | +1.40% | -1.14% | +13.34% | -4.53% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| HRL | $23.23 | 68.3 | +11.3% | +11.17% | +8.20% | -5.07% | -27.09% | up | ⚠️ Overbought |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 30) — Entry Zone
- WMT ($115.75, RSI 28.7) — world's largest retailer hitting oversold. -12% 30D selloff. -9.1% below SMA20. Quality franchise, yield support. Best defensive entry in the scan.
Oversold (RSI 30–40) — Watch Closely
- COST ($956.32, RSI 34.1) — member warehouse model, long-term compounder. -5.6% 30D, -6.6% below SMA20. Golden cross still active; likely temporary pullback.
- TSN ($61.02, RSI 32.6) — protein processor, -7.8% below SMA20. Margin pressure from tariff/feed costs. Watch only.
- LOW ($214.36, RSI 37.1) — home improvement in structural breakdown (deathcross). -16% 3M. Housing weakness + tariff headwind.
- PPC ($28.31, RSI 35.8) — Pilgrim's Pride collapsing (-33% 3M). Deathcross, -44% from ATH. Avoid.
- SBUX ($99.16, RSI 39.1) — approaching oversold. Golden cross intact. Consumer softness weighing on China-exposed names. Accumulate zone.
Neutral (RSI 40–60)
- T, XLU, XLP, MCD, ECL, HD — sector ETFs and stalwarts all pulling back. MCD -15% 3M with deathcross. ECL -15% 3M. HD -14% 3M.
- VZ ($47.81) — telecom holding steady. Golden cross. +10.6% above SMA200. Best relative strength in telco bucket.
- TGT ($127.07, RSI 54.5) — standout: +13.3% 3M, golden cross, near ATH (-4.5%). Beating the defensive sector comfortably.
Overbought (RSI > 70)
- HRL ($23.23, RSI 68.3) — Hormel bounced +11% this week. Still -27% from ATH. Deathcross active. Likely dead-cat or short squeeze.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | $115.75 | <$120 | 28.7 ↓ | -12.10% | Capitulation in quality name. Golden cross intact. Best defensive entry in universe. |
| COST | $956.32 | <$975 | 34.1 ↓ | -5.60% | Compounding machine approaching oversold. Add on further weakness. |
| SBUX | $99.16 | <$102 | 39.1 | -5.31% | New CEO turnaround + golden cross. RSI approaching buy zone. |
| VZ | $47.81 | $46-48 | 51.8 | -0.46% | Stable yield play. Hold/accumulate as defensive anchor. |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ OVERSOLD ENTRY | WMT | RSI 28.7, retail giant capitulating, quality franchise, golden cross intact |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | COST, SBUX | RSI 34-39, quality names with intact golden cross, compounders at discount |
| 🔒 HOLD | TGT, VZ | Relative outperformers in a weak defensive tape |
| 🔍 WATCH | T, TSN, LOW, MCD, ECL, HD, XLP, XLU | Weak-down or deathcross, not yet at capitulation |
| ⚠️ OVERBOUGHT / CAUTION | HRL | +11% surge into RSI 68 but deathcross active; dead-cat risk |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | PPC | Structural collapse (-33% 3M), deathcross, -44% from ATH |
What Changed (directional)
- WMT crossing into capitulation — meaningful shift for the defensive anchor. -12% 30D selloff is largest single-month drop in this watchlist. Quality entry window opening.
- COST joining the pullback — RSI now 34, approaching oversold alongside WMT. Prior was stable; now clearly in distribution.
- TGT bucking the trend — +13.3% 3M while peers lose 5-16%. Consumer discretionary strength bleeding into TGT at the expense of WMT/COST.
- MCD structural breakdown — deathcross confirmed, -15% 3M. Fast-food elasticity cracking at higher wage costs.
- HRL surprise bounce — +11% in one week for a sleepy food stock. Watch for reversal if this is news-driven.
- PPC collapse deepening — -33% 3M is the worst in the scan. Protein input cost + tariff-related headwinds compounding.
- Sector ETFs (XLP/XLU) both softening — confirms defensive sector rotation is off; money moving to risk-on AI/semis instead.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.