Defensive Scan

Scan

Defensive Scan

Scan symbols 14
COSTECLHDEHRLLOWEMCDPPCSBUXTGTETSNVZWMTEXLPXLU
Watchlists 1
@defensive-scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 27 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-04-28-defensive-scan.mdscan slugdefensive-scansource typescan-archive

Classic defensives breaking down — telecoms (T, VZ) deep oversold (RSI 27-29), MCD/HRL/PPC strong-down with deathcrosses. Utilities (XLU) and Walmart-style (TGT, SBUX, TSN) holding ground. Defensive sector failing to play its safe-haven role.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Mixed — supposed defensives selling off; only utilities and select retail (SBUX, TGT, TSN) holding
Leaders SBUX (RSI 58, +7.6% 3M), TSN (+7.5% 3M strong-up), XLU (+8.2% 3M strong-up), TGT (strong-up, +17.7% above SMA200)
Laggards T (RSI 29.2, -7% 7D), VZ (RSI 26.9, -9.5% 30D), HRL (-33% from high, deathcross), PPC (-39% from high), MCD (-14% from high, RSI 33.6)
Key insight Telecoms are oversold and broken (T weak-down with RSI 29, VZ down -9.5% 30D). MCD breaking down -5.2% 30D, RSI 33.6. Defensive isn't defensive when capital rotates to dollar safety. Utilities (XLU) the only working classic-defensive.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi Trend Signal
T $25.61 29.2 ↓ -7.8% -6.93% -6.67% +9.58% -14.03% down 🔍 Watch
VZ $45.42 26.9 ↓ -6.8% -7.02% -9.54% +15.75% -12.11% weak-down 🔍 Watch
WMT $124.57 49.8 +0.5% +0.21% -0.92% +3.99% -7.51% weak-down 🔒 Hold
MCD $292.39 33.6 ↓ -3.9% -4.77% -5.23% -6.81% -14.44% down 🔍 Watch
COST $994.00 48.4 -0.9% -0.11% -0.26% +4.46% -6.85% weak-down 🔒 Hold
HRL $21.31 43.9 +0.2% -0.42% -6.12% -11.58% -33.11% strong-down ⚠️ Avoid
TSN $64.45 57.0 +2.5% +1.34% +4.24% +7.49% -2.95% strong-up 🔒 Hold
PPC $33.64 29.2 ↓ -6.6% -3.04% -8.44% -18.69% -39.04% strong-down ⚠️ Avoid
ECL $266.96 44.2 -1.2% -2.54% +1.70% -5.36% -13.68% down 🔍 Watch
HD $329.06 41.9 -2.1% -5.10% +1.72% -10.91% -22.89% strong-down 🔍 Watch
LOW $240.32 46.3 -0.8% -4.99% +3.82% -9.44% -18.00% down 🔍 Watch
SBUX $97.48 57.9 +4.4% +3.27% -0.35% +7.63% -7.00% strong-up 🔒 Hold
TGT $117.88 48.3 -0.5% -0.05% +0.71% +8.44% -6.44% strong-up 🔒 Hold
XLP $81.55 42.7 -0.6% +0.05% -3.49% -0.27% -9.53% weak-down 🔍 Watch
XLU $46.39 53.7 +0.8% +1.19% -1.15% +8.21% -2.95% strong-up 🔒 Hold

Tier Analysis

Tier 1 — Strong-Up Defensives (Working)

  • XLU ($46.39, +8.2% 3M) — utilities ETF, strong-up, golden cross, near 52wk high. The only working classic defensive.
  • TGT ($117.88, +8.4% 3M) — strong-up, +17.7% above SMA200. Discount retail rotation.
  • SBUX ($97.48, +7.6% 3M) — coffee chain comeback, strong-up.
  • TSN ($64.45, +7.5% 3M) — protein producer strong-up, near 52wk high.

Tier 2 — Holding Steady

  • WMT ($124.57) — weak-down but only -7.5% from high, +160% 3y. Compounder intact.
  • COST ($994) — weak-down but -6.9% from high, +106% 3y.
  • XLP ($81.55, RSI 42.7) — staples ETF, weak-down. Stable but not leading.

Tier 3 — Oversold Telecoms (Watch)

  • VZ ($45.42, RSI 26.9, -9.5% 30D) — extreme oversold. +15.75% 3M shows recent rally was real but fading fast.
  • T ($25.61, RSI 29.2, -6.7% 30D) — extreme oversold. Note: +9.58% 3M still positive on a longer view.

Tier 4 — Down/Strong-Down (Caution)

  • MCD ($292, RSI 33.6) — fast food breakdown, -5.2% 30D, -14% from high. The "Big Mac index" is flashing.
  • HD ($329, deathcross, -22.9% from high) — housing-linked retail under pressure.
  • LOW ($240) — same housing weakness as HD.
  • ECL ($267, RSI 44) — water/cleaning tech, down trend, -13.7% from high.

Tier 5 — Broken Theses

  • HRL ($21.31, deathcross, -33% from high) — Hormel value-trap, in strong-down.
  • PPC ($33.64, RSI 29.2, deathcross, -39% from high) — Pilgrim's Pride collapse, -18.7% 3M.

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 30D% Setup
VZ $45.42 <$48 26.9 ↓ -9.54% Extreme oversold telecom, +15.75% 3M shows demand still there. Watch for capitulation low.
T $25.61 <$26 29.2 ↓ -6.67% Extreme oversold, dividend yield-trap risk. Wait for trend confirm.
MCD $292.39 <$295 33.6 ↓ -5.23% Approaching oversold, quality consumer brand. Watch for $290 hold.
HRL — — 43.9 -6.12% Avoid — strong-down with deathcross, -33% from high
PPC — — 29.2 ↓ -8.44% Avoid — falling knife, broken trend

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD XLU, TGT, SBUX, TSN, WMT, COST Strong-up or stable compounders, defensive working
🔍 WATCH VZ, T, MCD, HD, LOW, ECL, JNJ, XLP Oversold or mid-pullback — need stabilization
⚠️ AVOID HRL, PPC Strong-down with deathcrosses, broken trend

What Changed (vs prior defensive scans)

  • Telecom failure — T and VZ both at extreme RSI lows (29 and 27). The classic dividend/yield trade is breaking. Last full defensive read had VZ closer to neutral.
  • MCD breakdown — RSI 33.6 from neutral, -5.2% 30D. Breaking down trend after months of stability.
  • XLU still leading — utilities continue to outperform staples (XLP weak-down vs XLU strong-up).
  • Discount retail rotation visible — TGT (strong-up), WMT (stable), COST (stable) outperforming high-end discretionary.
  • Food producers diverging — TSN strong-up while HRL (-33% from high) and PPC (-39%) are being repriced. Maybe it's avian flu cycles, maybe it's beef vs chicken margins.
  • Housing-linked retail still weak — HD (-22.9% from high) and LOW (-18% from high) showing housing weakness lingering.
  • The "defensive" thesis isn't working — XLP (staples ETF) is weak-down, only XLU (utilities) is strong-up. When defensives stop being defensive, watch for cash/bonds rotation instead of equity rotation.
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Apr 26 ScanDefensive Scan Apr 13 Scan3 — DEFENSIVE SCAN Apr 10 ScanDefensive Scan Apr 3 ScanDefensive Scan Mar 31 ScanDefensive Scan May 29 ScanDefensive Scan Mar 26 ScanDefensive Scan Mar 24 ScanDefensive Scan Mar 20 ScanDefensive Scan Mar 13 ScanDefensive Scan

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