Defensive Scan

Scan

Defensive Scan

Scan symbols 14
COSTECLHDEHRLLOWEMCDPPCSBUXTGTETSNVZWMTEXLPXLU
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raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 21 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-04-26-defensive-scanported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-31-defensive-scan.mdscan slugdefensive-scansource typescan-archive

Defensives are splitting hard: the winners (T, VZ, WMT, COST, TGT, TSN) are in legitimate strong-up trends with golden crosses, while the losers (HD, HRL, SBUX, ECL, XLP, MCD) are broken below SMA50 with RSIs approaching oversold. This is not a monolithic sector rotation — you have to pick your names carefully.

Price Table

Symbol Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% Trend
TGT $120.64 62.0 +2.5% +3.02% +6.60% +24.67% strong-up
T $28.74 58.5 +1.7% -1.81% +2.61% +17.07% strong-up
TSN $63.50 57.1 +3.4% +5.02% -1.40% +9.20% strong-up
VZ $49.99 52.7 -1.1% -2.31% +0.02% +24.85% strong-up
WMT $124.15 52.3 +0.6% +0.47% -2.12% +11.67% strong-up
COST $994.76 55.2 +0.5% +2.21% -0.80% +15.51% strong-up
XLU $45.54 49.0 -1.0% +1.21% -3.19% +7.43% strong-up
PPC $37.36 45.7 +0.2% +7.22% -11.78% -4.18% strong-down
LOW $236.21 41.4 -1.5% +0.21% -8.15% -1.61% down
MCD $309.78 38.8 -2.7% -0.60% -6.96% +1.92% weak-down
SBUX $89.26 39.5 -6.3% -6.24% -7.75% +6.68% weak-down
HRL $22.48 39.9 -2.5% +0.96% -9.43% -3.93% strong-down
ECL $264.18 37.8 -2.5% -0.41% -12.71% +0.90% down
XLP $81.57 37.8 -1.9% +0.17% -7.53% +5.59% weak-down
HD $328.70 38.1 -3.0% -1.36% -10.76% -3.84% strong-down

Tier Analysis

Momentum Leaders (RSI > 55)

  • TGT (62.0): The biggest surprise in this scan — +24.7% in 3M and +6.6% in 30D. Strong-up, golden cross, +21.8% above SMA200. Discount retail is clearly getting a consumer trade-down bid. Near 52wk high (-4.3%).
  • T (58.5): Telecom stalwart with a genuine renaissance — +17.1% in 3M, strong-up, golden cross. +8.4% above SMA200. 5Y return of +72.8% finally validates the dividend + fiber thesis. Only -3.5% from 52wk high.
  • TSN (57.1): Protein plays getting tariff-avoidance and food security bids. +5% this week, strong-up, golden cross. +12.6% above SMA200.
  • COST (55.2): The ultimate defensive compounder. +15.5% in 3M, strong-up, golden cross. +5.1% above SMA200. Membership renewal resilience makes this recession-proof.

Solid Defensives (RSI 45-55)

  • VZ (52.7): +24.8% in 3M — matching TGT's quarter. Strong-up, golden cross, +17.8% above SMA200. -3.3% from 52wk high. Telecom sector clearly getting rotation bid.
  • WMT (52.3): The consumer staples fortress. Golden cross, +14.4% above SMA200. Near-flat 30D but the 3M and 5Y story (+193%) is the reason to hold.
  • XLU (49.0): Utilities ETF quietly +7.4% in 3M. Strong-up, golden cross. AI power demand story supporting utility fundamentals. Only -4.7% from 52wk high.
  • PPC (45.7): Chicken producer bounce +7.2% this week but -11.8% in 30D — volatile. Strong-down trend, death cross. -34.1% from 52wk high. Not ready.

Deteriorating (RSI 35-45)

  • MCD (38.8): Consumer spending fatigue showing up in QSR. -7% in 30D, RSI approaching oversold. Weak-down, -3.3% below SMA50. Still above SMA200 (+1.4%) — not broken, but not buying.
  • SBUX (39.5): -6.2% in 7D is a fresh flush. New CEO restructuring story losing patience. -6.3% below SMA20, approaching SMA200. Weak-down but not a death cross — watching.
  • LOW (41.4): Home improvement in structural trouble. -8.2% in 30D, -9.3% below SMA50. Down trend. -19.4% from 52wk high. Housing market weakness is the culprit.
  • HRL (39.9): Hormel is a multi-year disaster. Strong-down, death cross, -9.7% below SMA200, -29.9% from 52wk high. The processed food category is losing to fresh/private label.

Oversold / Broken (RSI < 38)

  • HD (38.1): Strong-down, death cross, -11% below SMA200. -23% from 52wk high. Housing market correction playing out in real-time.
  • ECL (37.8): -12.7% in 30D, -14.6% from 52wk high. Down trend. Industrial cleaning/water treatment cycle deteriorating.
  • XLP (37.8): The consumer staples ETF itself is weak-down, -7.5% in 30D. Signals broad weakness in the staples category.

Entry Zones

Stock Entry Range Thesis
TGT $115–$121 Discount retail trade-down story with momentum. +21.8% above SMA200, golden cross.
T $27.50–$29.00 Fiber + dividend renaissance. Only -3.5% from 52wk high. Pull to SMA20 is the entry.
VZ $48.00–$51.00 Telecom rotation underway. +17.8% above SMA200, golden cross.
COST $975–$995 Recession-proof compounder. Golden cross, +5.1% above SMA200.
WMT $120–$125 Consumer fortress. +14.4% above SMA200. Any dip to SMA50 is a buy.
XLU $44.00–$46.00 Utilities ETF with AI power demand tailwind. Strong-up, golden cross.

Action Matrix

Top Buys / Add

  1. TGT — Quarter's biggest defensive winner. Consumer trade-down theme has legs. Golden cross, near 52wk high.
  2. T — Telecom turnaround validated. +17.1% in 3M, +8.4% above SMA200. Dividend yield makes hold-through easy.
  3. VZ — Matches T's 3M momentum. Less leverage, similar thesis. Telecom sector rotation is real.
  4. COST — The all-weather defensive compounder. Membership model is pricing power.
  5. XLU — Utilities quietly working. AI power demand is a 5-year secular tailwind.

Top Sells / Avoid

  1. HD — Housing correction structural. Strong-down, death cross, -11% below SMA200. No floor visible.
  2. HRL — Multi-year secular decline. Death cross, -9.7% below SMA200. Category loss to fresh food.
  3. PPC — Volatile bounce but death cross and strong-down trend. Wait for base.
  4. ECL — Industrial cycle headwinds. -14.6% from 52wk high with no catalyst.
  5. XLP ETF — Even the sector ETF is breaking down (-7.5% in 30D). Selective beats broad.

Key Observations

  • Telecom is the stealth winner: T (+17.1% in 3M) and VZ (+24.8%) are outperforming almost every other defensive — fiber buildout + dividend yield + AI infrastructure demand is creating a genuine re-rating.
  • Consumer trade-down is real: TGT +24.7% in 3M and WMT +11.7% — discount/value retail is getting the rotation bid as consumers tighten spending.
  • Housing-adjacent defensives (HD, LOW) are in structural trouble — home improvement retail requires housing turnover, which is frozen at multi-decade lows.
  • Food/QSR split: TSN (+9.2%) vs HRL (-3.9%) vs MCD (-7% in 30D) — fresh protein wins, processed food loses, QSR getting consumer spending fatigue.
  • XLP ETF weakness (-7.5% in 30D) signals broad staples derating — you need to be in the winners (COST, WMT, T, VZ) not the sector ETF.
  • SBUX watching closely — -6.2% this week and approaching SMA200. New CEO turnaround either inflects here or falls through to a new low.

Data: 2026-03-31 pre-computed summaries.

10 events
DateTypeEvent
Apr 3 ScanDefensive Scan Mar 26 ScanDefensive Scan Mar 24 ScanDefensive Scan Apr 10 ScanDefensive Scan Mar 20 ScanDefensive Scan Apr 13 Scan3 — DEFENSIVE SCAN Mar 13 ScanDefensive Scan Mar 12 ScanDefensive Scan Mar 11 ScanDefensive Scan Mar 10 ScanDefensive Scan

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