Defensive Scan
Defensive Scan
Defensives splitting: LOW approaching oversold at RSI 30 with -14.0% 30D, HD weakening (RSI 34, -10.2% 30D) with death cross, while VZ (+28.1% 3M) and SBUX (+20.4% 3M) lead the rotation trade at elevated RSI — consumer staples ETF (XLP) and utilities (XLU) holding steady as sector anchors.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 MIXED — Home improvement (LOW, HD) selling off hard with death crosses, protein producers (PPC, TSN) weakening, while telecoms (VZ) and recovery plays (SBUX, TGT) run hot; sector ETFs (XLP, XLU) stable and above SMA200 |
| Leaders | VZ (+28.1% 3M, RSI 68), TGT (+25.8% 3M, RSI 64), SBUX (+20.4% 3M, RSI 67), AMGN (+19.9% 3M), GILD (+19.3% 3M) |
| Laggards | LOW (-14.0% 30D, RSI 30), HD (-10.2% 30D, RSI 34), PPC (-10.5% 30D, RSI 33), ECL (-7.3% 30D, RSI 35), TSN (-5.6% 30D, RSI 38) |
Price Table (2026-03-11)
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | SMA50 | SMA200 | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector ETFs | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLP | $85.72 | 45 | $87.96 | $84.20 | $80.16 | -2.5% | +1.8% | strong-up | -1.7% | -3.0% | 🟡 Neutral |
| XLU | $46.56 | 58 | $46.49 | $44.37 | $42.84 | +0.1% | +4.9% | strong-up | -1.4% | +4.4% | 🟢 Healthy |
| Telecoms | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T | $27.11 | 46 | $28.21 | $26.10 | $26.41 | -3.9% | +3.9% | up | -3.0% | -4.8% | 🟡 Neutral — pullback from run |
| VZ | $50.62 | 68 | $49.81 | $44.74 | $41.80 | +1.6% | +13.2% | strong-up | -0.2% | +3.4% | 🟠 Near Overbought |
| Pharma / Healthcare | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| GILD | $145.98 | 51 | $149.34 | $139.06 | $120.96 | -2.2% | +5.0% | strong-up | +0.3% | -6.3% | 🟡 Neutral |
| AMGN | $377.92 | 57 | $376.19 | $353.82 | $309.98 | +0.5% | +6.8% | strong-up | -0.2% | +3.8% | 🟢 Healthy |
| BIIB | $188.41 | 51 | $190.99 | $183.42 | $154.67 | -1.3% | +2.7% | strong-up | +0.8% | -1.5% | 🟡 Neutral |
| Retail / Consumer | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WMT | $123.46 | 47 | $126.66 | $122.03 | $106.96 | -2.5% | +1.2% | strong-up | -1.9% | -4.1% | 🟡 Neutral |
| MCD | $327.94 | 53 | $329.21 | $317.28 | $304.71 | -0.4% | +3.4% | strong-up | -1.3% | +2.0% | 🟡 Neutral |
| COST | $997.36 | 54 | $996.26 | $962.28 | $949.68 | +0.1% | +3.6% | strong-up | -0.7% | +2.0% | 🟡 Neutral |
| SBUX | $101.38 | 67 | $97.42 | $93.95 | $88.12 | +4.1% | +7.9% | strong-up | +3.5% | +2.9% | 🟠 Near Overbought |
| TGT | $120.74 | 64 | $116.48 | $109.70 | $97.26 | +3.7% | +10.1% | strong-up | -1.5% | +5.4% | 🟠 Near Overbought |
| Home Improvement | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| HD | $351.01 | 34 | $374.02 | $372.57 | $373.90 | -6.2% | -5.8% | strong-down | -2.0% | -10.2% | 🟡 Approaching Oversold |
| LOW | $246.81 | 30 | $267.75 | $266.72 | $244.58 | -7.8% | -7.5% | weak-down | -2.3% | -14.0% | 🟢 Oversold |
| Food / Consumer Staples | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| HRL | $23.34 | 40 | $24.47 | $24.21 | $25.40 | -4.6% | -3.6% | strong-down | -4.7% | -2.6% | 🟡 Weak |
| TSN | $60.24 | 38 | $62.92 | $61.63 | $55.85 | -4.3% | -2.3% | weak-down | -4.0% | -5.6% | 🟡 Approaching Oversold |
| PPC | $38.64 | 33 | $41.82 | $41.50 | $41.86 | -7.6% | -6.9% | strong-down | -5.7% | -10.5% | 🟡 Approaching Oversold |
| Industrials / Services | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ECL | $281.39 | 35 | $299.14 | $285.51 | $271.87 | -5.9% | -1.4% | weak-down | -5.7% | -7.3% | 🟡 Approaching Oversold |
Tier Analysis
Oversold (RSI ≤ 30) — Entry Territory
LOW (RSI 30, -14.0% 30D, -7.8% below SMA20) — Lowe's at the edge of oversold. At $246.81, still barely above SMA200 ($244.58, +0.9%), which is the last line of defense. The -7.5% below SMA50 confirms the trend breakdown. -15.8% from 52-week high. Home improvement duopoly — quality franchise at oversold levels.
Approaching Oversold (RSI 30-40) — Watch Closely
PPC (RSI 33, -10.5% 30D, -7.6% below SMA20) — Pilgrim's Pride protein producer in sharp decline. Death cross active, -31.9% from 52-week high. -6.9% below SMA50. HD (RSI 34, -10.2% 30D, -6.2% below SMA20) — Home Depot death cross active, -5.8% below SMA50. The home improvement pair (HD + LOW) selling off together signals sector-wide consumer spending concern, not stock-specific. -17.8% from 52-week high. ECL (RSI 35, -7.3% 30D, -5.9% below SMA20) — Ecolab industrial cleaning/water treatment weakening. Golden cross still intact, +3.5% above SMA200 — not as dire as HD/LOW. TSN (RSI 38, -5.6% 30D, -4.3% below SMA20) — Tyson Foods protein producer drifting lower. Golden cross intact, +7.9% above SMA200 provides floor. HRL (RSI 40, -2.6% 30D) — Hormel at the edge. Death cross, -8.1% below SMA200. Structural decline in packaged foods. INCY — Not in this watchlist but cross-reference from biotech.
Neutral (RSI 40-58) — Holding Ground
The defensive core cluster: XLP (RSI 45), T (RSI 46), WMT (RSI 47), GILD (RSI 51), BIIB (RSI 51), MCD (RSI 53), COST (RSI 54), AMGN (RSI 57), XLU (RSI 58). All golden crosses intact, all above SMA200. This is the defensive playbook working exactly as designed — boring, stable, thesis intact. WMT at $123.46 (-4.1% 30D) showing minor weakness but +15.4% above SMA200 provides massive cushion. COST at $997.36 right at SMA20 — textbook consolidation.
Extended (RSI > 60) — Don't Chase
VZ (RSI 68, +28.1% 3M, +13.2% above SMA50) — Verizon on a massive defensive rotation run. At $50.62, only -1.6% from 52-week high. Golden cross, strong-up trend, but RSI 68 is near overbought territory. Don't chase. SBUX (RSI 67, +20.4% 3M, +7.9% above SMA50) — Starbucks turnaround rally extending. At $101.38, only -3.3% from high. Strong-up trend but extended. TGT (RSI 64, +25.8% 3M, +10.1% above SMA50) — Target recovery trade running hot. At $120.74, only -4.2% from high. Strong momentum but elevated.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ LOW | $240-$250 | RSI 30, home improvement duopoly at oversold. -14.0% 30D selloff, testing SMA200 ($244.58). Quality franchise. |
| 🔍 HD | $340-$360 | RSI 34, death cross active. Tracking LOW lower. Wait for RSI <30 for highest conviction. -17.8% from high. |
| 🔍 PPC | $36-$40 | RSI 33, protein producer selloff. Death cross, -31.9% from high. Needs sector clarity. |
| 🔍 ECL | $270-$285 | RSI 35, industrial bellwether weakening. Golden cross intact, +3.5% above SMA200 provides floor. |
| 🔍 TSN | $58-$62 | RSI 38, protein drifting lower. Golden cross intact, above SMA200. Monitor for RSI <35. |
| 📈 WMT | $120-$125 | RSI 47, retail king stable. -4.1% 30D pullback in strong-up trend. Golden cross, +15.4% above SMA200. |
| 📈 MCD | $320-$330 | RSI 53, stable franchise at SMA20. Golden cross, +7.6% above SMA200. Boring = good here. |
| 📈 COST | $980-$1,000 | RSI 54, Costco right at SMA20. Golden cross, +5.0% above SMA200. Quality compounder. |
| ⚠️ VZ | >$48 | RSI 68, +28.1% 3M — extended. Don't chase telecom rotation. Wait for pullback to $46-48. |
| ⚠️ SBUX | >$95 | RSI 67, +20.4% 3M — turnaround priced in for now. Wait for consolidation. |
| ⚠️ TGT | >$115 | RSI 64, +25.8% 3M — recovery rally extended. Wait for RSI <55 re-entry. |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ STRONG BUY | LOW | RSI 30, home improvement duopoly at oversold. Quality franchise -14.0% 30D, testing SMA200 support. |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | HD | RSI 34, death cross active. Home improvement pair selloff — sector spending concern or rotation? |
| 🔍 WATCH | PPC, ECL, TSN | RSI 33-38, approaching oversold. Monitor for stabilization. |
| 🔍 WATCH | HRL | RSI 40, death cross, -8.1% below SMA200. Structural decline in packaged foods — needs thesis. |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | WMT, COST, MCD | RSI 47-54, defensive retail stable. Golden crosses intact, minor pullbacks in uptrends. |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | AMGN | RSI 57, strong-up trend, golden cross. +19.9% 3M compounder. |
| 🔒 HOLD | GILD, BIIB | RSI 51, defensive pharma. Golden crosses, stable. |
| 🔒 HOLD | XLP, XLU | Sector ETFs RSI 45-58. Strong-up trends, golden crosses. Doing their job. |
| 🔒 HOLD | T | RSI 46, pulled back -4.8% 30D after +12.9% 3M run. Death cross but still above SMA50. |
| ⚠️ AVOID | VZ | RSI 68, +28.1% 3M — near overbought. Don't chase telecom rotation. |
| ⚠️ AVOID | SBUX | RSI 67, +20.4% 3M — turnaround rally extended. |
| ⚠️ AVOID | TGT | RSI 64, +25.8% 3M — recovery priced in at these levels. |
What Changed (vs 2026-03-10 scan)
| Change | Detail |
|---|---|
| LOW approaching oversold | RSI dropped to 30 with -14.0% 30D selloff. Testing SMA200 at $244.58 — critical support. |
| HD death cross active | RSI 34 with -10.2% 30D. Home improvement pair (HD + LOW) selling off together — consumer spending signal. |
| PPC sharp decline | RSI 33, -10.5% 30D. Protein producers (PPC + TSN) both weakening — food sector pressure. |
| VZ extended at RSI 68 | +28.1% 3M telecom rotation trade running hot. Near overbought — don't chase. |
| SBUX/TGT recovery rallies extended | Both RSI >64 with +20%+ 3M gains. Turnaround trades getting crowded. |
| XLU strengthening | RSI 58, +4.4% 30D, +9.0% 3M. Utilities rotation gaining momentum — defensive preference clear. |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Home improvement pair (LOW RSI 30 + HD RSI 34) selling off in tandem — both -10%+ 30D | Consumer discretionary spending concern. Home improvement tied to housing cycle — rates/tariff fears? |
| VZ +28.1% 3M while T -4.8% 30D | Telecom rotation diverging within sector. VZ executing turnaround; T struggling after initial bounce. |
| Protein producers (PPC -10.5% 30D, TSN -5.6% 30D) weakening together | Food sector pressure — input costs, demand softening, or tariff impact on agriculture? |
| XLU RSI 58, +9.0% 3M, golden cross | Utilities rotation gaining legs. Classic late-cycle defensive play working — macro concern signal. |
| Defensive core (WMT, MCD, COST) RSI 47-54, all golden crosses | Anchored and stable. Exactly what you want from defensives during market stress. |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Chasing VZ/SBUX/TGT after 20%+ 3M runs | Extended names with RSI >64 have poor risk/reward for new entries. Wait for pullbacks. |
Open Questions
- LOW testing SMA200 ($244.58) — does it hold or break through? Critical support level for entry thesis.
- HD + LOW both oversold — is this housing cycle concern, tariff fears on building materials, or pure rotation?
- PPC + TSN both weakening — food sector headwind or temporary? Check input costs and demand data.
- VZ RSI 68 — how much further can telecom rotation run? Is this dividend yield chase or fundamental turnaround?
- HRL death cross, -8.1% below SMA200 — structural decline in packaged foods or value trap?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.