Defensive Scan
Defensive Scan
Defensives splitting into two camps — protein/home improvement names cracking hard (PPC -10.5% 30D, LOW -12.5%, HD -8.6%) while telecom and restaurants hold firm (VZ +3.6%, TGT +5.4%, SBUX +2.3%); XLP sector ETF down -3% 30D confirms broad staples weakness, but XLU utilities quietly grinding near highs at RSI 58.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 MIXED — Broad staples weakness (XLP -3% 30D) but utilities holding (XLU +4.4% 30D); pockets of oversold value forming in protein/home improvement while telecom and restaurants show relative strength |
| Leaders | VZ (+3.6% 30D, RSI 69), TGT (+5.4% 30D), SBUX (+2.3% 30D), XLU (+4.4% 30D) |
| Laggards | LOW (-12.5% 30D, RSI 33), PPC (-10.5% 30D, RSI 33), HD (-8.6% 30D), ECL (-7.3% 30D) |
Price Table (2026-03-10)
Sector Benchmarks
| ETF | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLP | $85.72 | 45 | $87.96 | -2.5% | -1.7% | -3.0% | 🟡 Weak |
| XLU | $46.56 | 58 | $46.49 | +0.1% | -1.4% | +4.4% | 🟢 Healthy |
Individual Stocks
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VZ | $50.71 | 69 | $49.65 | +2.1% | -0.2% | +3.6% | 🟠 Near Overbought |
| SBUX | $100.77 | 65 | $97.19 | +3.7% | +3.5% | +2.3% | 🟡 Neutral-Strong |
| TGT | $120.74 | 64 | $116.48 | +3.7% | -1.5% | +5.4% | 🟡 Neutral-Strong |
| GILD | $148.56 | 55 | $149.40 | -0.6% | +0.3% | -4.7% | 🟡 Neutral |
| AMGN | $375.43 | 55 | $375.40 | 0.0% | -0.2% | +3.1% | 🟡 Neutral |
| COST | $997.36 | 54 | $996.26 | +0.1% | -0.7% | +2.0% | 🟡 Neutral |
| MCD | $327.94 | 53 | $329.21 | -0.4% | -1.3% | +2.0% | 🟡 Neutral |
| T | $27.71 | 52 | $28.23 | -1.8% | -3.0% | -2.7% | 🟡 Neutral |
| BIIB | $188.41 | 51 | $190.99 | -1.3% | +0.8% | -1.5% | 🟡 Neutral |
| WMT | $125.12 | 50 | $126.82 | -1.3% | -1.9% | -2.8% | 🟡 Neutral |
| HRL | $23.34 | 40 | $24.47 | -4.6% | -4.7% | -2.6% | 🟡 Approaching Oversold |
| TSN | $60.24 | 38 | $62.92 | -4.3% | -4.0% | -5.6% | 🟡 Approaching Oversold |
| HD | $357.15 | 37 | $375.95 | -5.0% | -2.0% | -8.6% | 🟡 Approaching Oversold |
| ECL | $281.39 | 35 | $299.14 | -5.9% | -5.7% | -7.3% | 🟡 Approaching Oversold |
| PPC | $38.64 | 33 | $41.82 | -7.6% | -5.7% | -10.5% | 🟢 Oversold |
| LOW | $251.11 | 33 | $269.64 | -6.9% | -2.3% | -12.5% | 🟢 Oversold |
Tier Analysis
Oversold (RSI < 35) — Entry Zone Forming
LOW RSI 33 — Lowe's is the most oversold name in the scan at -12.5% 30D and -6.9% below SMA20. Home improvement demand fears are driving the selloff, but LOW trades at only -14.3% from 52-week highs — not yet capitulation. Housing cycle sensitivity is the risk. Quality franchise at a discount if you believe housing stabilizes.
PPC RSI 33 — Pilgrim's Pride taking the hardest hit at -10.5% 30D and -7.6% below SMA20. Protein sector headwinds (feed costs, oversupply concerns) dragging the stock -31.9% from 52-week highs — the deepest drawdown in the entire scan. This is either a value trap or a contrarian entry in a cyclical protein name.
Approaching Oversold (RSI 35-40) — Watch Closely
ECL RSI 35 — Ecolab falling -7.3% 30D and sitting -5.9% below SMA20. Industrial cleaning/water treatment leader rarely gets this oversold. Quality compounder approaching entry zone. Only -9% from highs — not deep distress.
HD RSI 37 — Home Depot weakening alongside LOW. -8.6% 30D and -5% below SMA20. Housing cycle bellwether — if LOW is oversold, HD is close behind. Better balance sheet than LOW but similar macro headwinds.
TSN RSI 38 — Tyson tracking PPC lower with -5.6% 30D. Protein sector weakness is broad-based, not company-specific. -4.3% below SMA20.
HRL RSI 40 — Hormel sliding -4.7% 7D, now -27.2% from 52-week highs. The deepest percentage drawdown from highs after PPC. Processed foods facing secular headwinds. Low conviction.
Neutral (RSI 40-60) — Core Defensive Holdings
AMGN, GILD, BIIB — Big pharma cluster all sitting at RSI 51-55, right at their SMA20s. Stable, boring, doing their job as portfolio ballast. GILD -4.7% 30D is the weakest of the three.
WMT RSI 50 — Retail giant grinding lower (-2.8% 30D) but not breaking down. Post-earnings digestion continues. -7.1% from highs.
MCD RSI 53 — McDonald's steady at +2.0% 30D. Quick-service restaurant defensive performing as expected.
COST RSI 54 — Costco right at SMA20, flat and stable. Membership model continues to be the best defensive moat in retail.
Near Overbought (RSI 60-70) — Don't Chase
VZ RSI 69 — Verizon is the standout performer at +3.6% 30D and +28.3% over 3 months. Only -1.4% from 52-week highs. Telecom dividend play working, but RSI 69 says don't add here.
SBUX RSI 65 — Starbucks turnaround thesis gaining momentum at +19.7% over 3 months. Trading 3.7% above SMA20. Hold, don't chase.
TGT RSI 64 — Target up +25.8% over 3 months and +5.4% 30D. Retail recovery play working. Above SMA20 by 3.7%.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | RSI | Action | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | $245-$255 | 33 | ✅ Strong Buy | Home improvement duopoly, -12.5% 30D selloff; RSI oversold; quality at discount |
| PPC | $36-$40 | 33 | 🔍 Research | Deepest drawdown (-31.9% from high); protein cyclical — need to assess if value trap |
| ECL | $275-$285 | 35 | 📈 Accumulate | Quality compounder rarely this cheap; industrial water/cleaning leader |
| HD | $350-$365 | 37 | 📈 Accumulate | Home improvement bellwether approaching oversold; pair with LOW |
| TSN | $58-$62 | 38 | 🔍 Research | Protein sector weakness broad-based; wait for stabilization signal |
| HRL | $22-$24 | 40 | 🔍 Research | -27% from highs but secular headwinds in processed foods; low conviction |
| VZ | Hold | 69 | ⚠️ Avoid adding | RSI 69 near overbought; great run but don't chase +28% 3M move |
| SBUX | Hold | 65 | 🔒 Hold | Turnaround working; hold positions, wait for pullback to add |
| TGT | Hold | 64 | 🔒 Hold | +25.8% 3M recovery; let it consolidate before adding |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ STRONG BUY | LOW | RSI 33 oversold, -12.5% 30D; home improvement duopoly at rare discount |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | ECL, HD | Quality defensives approaching oversold; DCA into weakness |
| 🔒 HOLD | AMGN, GILD, COST, MCD, WMT, SBUX, TGT, VZ | Core defensive ballast performing as expected; don't sell into weakness |
| 🔍 WATCH | PPC, TSN, HRL, BIIB, T | Protein/food names weakening; need stabilization before entry |
| ⚠️ AVOID | VZ (new adds) | RSI 69, +28% 3M — great stock but don't chase at these levels |
What Changed (vs prior scan)
| Stock | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| LOW | -12.5% 30D, RSI 33 | Sharpest decline in scan — home improvement fears escalating; entering oversold |
| PPC | -10.5% 30D, RSI 33 | Protein sector selloff deepening; -31.9% from highs |
| HD | -8.6% 30D, RSI 37 | Tracking LOW lower; housing cycle drag |
| ECL | -7.3% 30D, RSI 35 | Quality industrial compounder rarely this oversold |
| VZ | +3.6% 30D, RSI 69 | Telecom dividend play outperforming; approaching overbought |
| TGT | +5.4% 30D, RSI 64 | Retail recovery continuing; best 3M return at +25.8% |
| XLP vs XLU | XLP -3% vs XLU +4.4% 30D | Utilities outperforming staples — rate-sensitive defensives winning |
| NEW: XLP, XLU | Added as sector benchmarks | Gives sector-level context for individual stock moves |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| XLU (+4.4% 30D) outperforming XLP (-3.0% 30D) by 7.4 percentage points | Utilities > Staples rotation — rate-sensitive defensives preferred over consumer defensives |
| LOW and PPC both at RSI 33 but very different drawdowns (-14% vs -32% from highs) | LOW is the higher-quality oversold entry; PPC has deeper structural issues |
| Protein sector (PPC, TSN, HRL) uniformly weak — all below SMA20 by 4-8% | Sector-wide headwinds, not company-specific; wait for group stabilization |
| VZ +28.3% 3M is the best performer in entire defensive universe | Telecom dividend trade crowded; approaching mean reversion risk at RSI 69 |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Previous scan had many stale data points and missing RSI readings | Pre-computed summaries now provide clean, current data for every name |
| Assuming all defensives move together | Utilities vs staples divergence (7.4% spread) shows defensives are NOT monolithic |
Open Questions
- Is the LOW/HD selloff a buying opportunity or the start of a housing-cycle downturn?
- Will protein sector (PPC/TSN/HRL) stabilize or continue lower on feed cost / oversupply fears?
- How long can VZ sustain RSI 69 without a pullback — is the telecom dividend trade overcrowded?
- XLU outperformance — is this a rates signal (expecting cuts) or just rotation within defensives?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.