Defensive Scan
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Defensive Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 34 rows · screens, not recommendations
Defensives are NOT hedging — even in a tape where mega-cap is in drawdown, the classic staples (MCD RSI 35, COST RSI 36, WMT RSI 38, T RSI 38) are being sold while discretionary-tilt (TGT +20.4% 3M, HD +11.9% 30D, ECL +11% 30D) and the protein-defensive HRL (+24.1% 30D, RSI 77) lead. The sector ETFs are finally catching a bid (XLP RSI 53 golden-cross, XLU RSI 64 +4.2% vs SMA200) but the marquee staples names are the laggards. No flight-to-safety into the anchors; the bid is in discretionary and utilities, not staples.
Source: defensive.json. Latest bar 2026-06-25.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Defensives bifurcated — ETFs (XLP/XLU) basing-to-up but classic staples (MCD/COST/WMT/T) being sold. Bid is in discretionary (TGT/HD) + utilities (XLU), not staples anchors |
| Leaders | HRL (RSI 77, +24.1% 30D, breakout), ECL (RSI 69, +11% 30D), HD (RSI 65, +11.9% 30D), TGT (RSI 65, +20.4% 3M, near ATH), XLU (RSI 64, +4.2% vs SMA200) |
| Laggards | MCD (RSI 35↓, -13.1% 3M, strong-down), COST (RSI 36↓, -6.3% 30D, below SMA50), WMT (RSI 38↓, -5.1% 3M), T (RSI 38↓, -21.7% 3M, downtrend), TSN (RSI 44, -10.5% 30D) |
| Key insight | MCD at RSI 35 (strong-down, death-cross, -11.4% vs SMA200) — even the gold-standard defensive is broken; meanwhile HRL (RSI 77) and TGT (near ATH) lead. The "safe" anchors are the worst names; the sleeve's strength is in its riskier corners |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | $266.75 | 35.1 ↓ | -4.1% | -2.81% | -3.83% | -13.07% | -21.95% | ❌ Don't Buy (strong-down, DC) |
| COST | $940.17 | 36.2 ↓ | -2.8% | +0.90% | -6.26% | -3.89% | -14.26% | 🔍 Watch (basing, GC, -1.6% vs SMA200) |
| WMT | $115.78 | 37.7 ↓ | -2.1% | +1.40% | -2.35% | -5.06% | -14.34% | 🔍 Watch (down, GC, -0.5% vs SMA200) |
| T | $22.42 | 37.5 ↓ | -3.3% | -0.22% | -10.39% | -21.66% | -24.74% | ❌ Don't Buy (downtrend, DC) |
| PPC | $26.83 | 37.8 ↓ | -6.0% | -2.23% | -4.89% | -25.74% | -46.93% | ❌ Don't Buy (collapse, DC) |
| TSN | $57.80 | 43.9 ↓ | +0.4% | +2.76% | -10.51% | -7.42% | -16.81% | 🔍 Watch (pullback, GC, below SMA50) |
| VZ | $46.07 | 46.1 ↓ | -1.0% | -0.15% | -4.99% | -7.84% | -10.86% | 🔍 Watch (basing, GC, +5.6% vs SMA200) |
| XLP | $83.94 | 52.5 | +0.8% | +1.05% | +1.07% | +4.17% | -6.88% | 🔒 Hold (strong-up, GC) |
| LOW | $222.38 | 53.6 | +3.2% | -1.15% | +4.86% | -5.33% | -24.12% | 🔍 Watch (strong-down, DC, -8.5% vs SMA200) |
| SBUX | $103.16 | 58.0 | +3.9% | +3.56% | +1.72% | +13.75% | -5.25% | 🔒 Hold (uptrend, GC, +13% vs SMA200) |
| XLU | $45.85 | 63.5 | +3.8% | +1.40% | +1.80% | +1.80% | -4.08% | 🔒 Hold (strong-up, GC) |
| HD | $344.98 | 65.0 | +6.9% | +1.79% | +11.92% | +5.83% | -19.16% | 📈 Accumulate (weak-up, DC, -2.1% vs SMA200) |
| TGT | $139.57 | 64.7 | +7.8% | +8.44% | +11.27% | +20.42% | -2.28% | 📈 Accumulate (strong-up, GC, near ATH, +30.7% vs SMA200) |
| ECL | $281.47 | 68.6 | +6.9% | +0.82% | +11.02% | +6.81% | -8.99% | 📈 Accumulate (uptrend, +4.7% vs SMA200) |
| HRL | $25.92 | 77.0 ↑ | +7.4% | +4.76% | +24.08% | +15.05% | -18.66% | ⚠️ EXTENDED/TRIM (breakout, RSI 77) |
Tier Analysis
Oversold / Breaking Down (RSI < 45)
- MCD ($266.75, RSI 35) — McDonald's: strong-down, death-cross, -13.1% 3M, -11.4% vs SMA200, -22% from ATH. The gold-standard defensive is itself broken — not washed enough (RSI 35, below SMA200) to be a clean oversold-quality entry; this is a BROKEN/AVOID until it reclaims the 50. Watch RSI < 30 for a contrarian probe.
- COST ($940.17, RSI 36) — Costco: basing, golden cross, -6.3% 30D, -1.6% vs SMA200, -14.3% from ATH. Quality compounder in a pullback; golden cross + barely-below-SMA200 keeps it from BROKEN — call it NEUTRAL/watch for RSI stabilization. Not oversold-quality (below SMA200), not broken (GC intact).
- WMT ($115.78, RSI 38) — Walmart: down, golden cross, -0.5% vs SMA200, -14.3% from ATH. Pullback after a strong run; sitting right on the 200. Watch for the bounce off SMA200; trend-reconfirm needed.
- T ($22.42, RSI 38) — AT&T: downtrend, death-cross, -21.7% 3M, -12.3% vs SMA200, -24.7% from ATH. Telecom de-rating. BROKEN/AVOID.
- TSN ($57.80, RSI 44) — Tyson: pullback, golden cross, -10.5% 30D, -7% below SMA50, -1.3% vs SMA200. Protein complex weak; on the SMA200. Watch only.
Neutral / Basing (RSI 46–60)
- VZ ($46.07, RSI 46) — Verizon: basing, golden cross, +5.6% vs SMA200. Telecom yield play; flat-to-soft. Watch.
- XLP ($83.94, RSI 53) — Consumer Staples ETF: strong-up regime + golden cross, +4.2% vs SMA200, -6.9% from ATH. Finally catching a bid vs prior dead-money reads. Hold.
- LOW ($222.38, RSI 54) — Lowe's: strong-down regime despite RSI 54; death-cross, -8.5% vs SMA200, -24% from ATH. Below SMA50/200; reclaiming SMA20 only. Watch.
- SBUX ($103.16, RSI 58) — Starbucks: uptrend, golden cross, +13.75% 3M, +13% vs SMA200, -5.3% from ATH. Turnaround intact and confirming. Hold.
Momentum / Leading (RSI 63–77)
- XLU ($45.85, RSI 64) — Utilities ETF: strong-up, golden cross, +4.2% vs SMA200. The defensive sleeve's quiet leader — utilities catching a real bid. Hold.
- TGT ($139.57, RSI 65) — Target: strong-up, golden cross, +20.4% 3m, near ATH (-2.3%), +30.7% vs SMA200. Sleeve leader; CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT but RSI 65 + near ATH — add on a pullback to SMA20, don't chase the print.
- HD ($344.98, RSI 65) — Home Depot: weak-up reclaiming SMA20/50, +11.9% 30D, but still -2.1% vs SMA200 and death-cross. Housing-discretionary bid returning; needs to reclaim the 200 to confirm.
- ECL ($281.47, RSI 69) — Ecolab: uptrend, +11% 30D, +4.7% vs SMA200. Specialty-chem defensive showing relative strength; approaching extended.
- HRL ($25.92, RSI 77) — Hormel: breakout, +24.1% 30D, +16.9% vs SMA50. EXTENDED/TRIM — RSI 77 is overbought; protein-defensive ripping while TSN/PPC break down. Don't chase; trim discipline if held.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | $139.57 | <$130 | 64.7 | +11.3% | Sleeve leader; near ATH; GC; +30.7% vs SMA200; add on SMA20 pullback |
| SBUX | $103.16 | <$100 | 58.0 | +1.7% | Turnaround confirming; GC; +13% vs SMA200; buy SMA20 retest |
| HD | $344.98 | <$330 | 65.0 | +11.9% | Housing-discretionary; needs SMA200 reclaim; add on confirmation |
| COST | $940.17 | <$915 | 36.2 | -6.3% | Quality compounder; on SMA200; GC; watch for RSI stabilization (not oversold-quality yet) |
| WMT | $115.78 | <$113 | 37.7 | -2.4% | Pullback to SMA200; GC; watch for bounce + trend re-confirm |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | XLU, XLP, SBUX | ETFs catching a bid (GC, above SMA200); SBUX turnaround confirming |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE / CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT | TGT, ECL, HD | Strong-up / relative-strength leaders; add on pullbacks, HD needs SMA200 reclaim |
| 🔍 WATCH | COST, WMT, VZ, TSN, LOW | Pullbacks on/near SMA200; wait for RSI/trend confirm — not yet clean entries |
| ⚠️ EXTENDED / DON'T CHASE | HRL | RSI 77, +24.1% 30D — don't chase the protein-defensive rip |
| ❌ BROKEN / AVOID | MCD, T, PPC | Strong-down / collapse, death-cross, below SMA200 — structural de-rates not finished |
What Changed
- Staples anchors are the laggards — MCD (RSI 35, strong-down), COST (RSI 36), WMT (RSI 38), T (RSI 38) all being sold; the "safe" names are the worst in the sleeve.
- ETFs finally bid — XLP (RSI 53, golden cross, +4.2% vs SMA200) and XLU (RSI 64, +4.2% vs SMA200) now above the 200, a shift from prior dead-money reads. Utilities the quiet leader.
- HRL protein-defensive rip continues — Hormel +24.1% 30D, RSI 77, breakout — same "protein food" bucket as TSN/PPC but ripping. Sharp intra-sleeve bifurcation persists.
- TGT near ATH — Target +20.4% 3M, +30.7% vs SMA200; with HD (+11.9% 30D) the bid is in discretionary-tilt, not pure staples.
- MCD breaks down — even the classic defensive is strong-down + death-cross + below SMA200; the whole staples-anchor cohort is structurally soft.
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| MCD/COST/WMT/T all RSI 35-38 while XLU/HRL/TGT lead | Staples anchors are the laggard, not the hedge — defensive strength is in discretionary + utilities |
| XLP + XLU both now above SMA200 (vs prior flat reads) | Utilities/staples ETFs catching a real bid — first sign of rotation INTO the defensive sleeve, but selective |
| HRL (RSI 77) rips while TSN (RSI 44)/PPC (collapse) break | "Defensive food" remains bifurcated — protein complex split hard, idiosyncratic not macro |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Reading MCD's RSI 35 as oversold-quality | RSI 35 + strong-down + below SMA200 = broken, not dip-into-strength; needs to reclaim the 50 first |
| Buying COST as a falling knife OR as oversold-quality | -14% from ATH, on SMA200, GC intact = quality digesting in no-man's-land; wait for RSI to base, don't force it |
Open Questions
- MCD strong-down + below SMA200: structural de-rate or capitulation setup if RSI hits < 30?
- COST sitting on SMA200 with GC intact — does the premium-valuation de-rate finish here, or break the 200 into a deeper leg?
- XLP/XLU now above SMA200 — early rotation into defensives (tape turning cautious) or just a relief bounce in a still-risk-on tape?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.