1. The Read
The index went nowhere and everything under it moved. VOO closed Friday at $713.61, RSI 66.0, a second straight week tagged breakout — and up all of +0.41% over the week. Underneath that flat print, energy's sector fund vaulted 17.3 RSI points to 67.4 on a +7.67% week, the sharpest single move on the whole macro board, while China's two large baskets each shed roughly 18 RSI points out of overbought. Breadth was a coin flip: 570 symbols up, 491 down, median move +0.1%. Volatility never showed up — VIX 14.25, and the credit tape stayed orderly (high-yield +0.1%, investment grade −0.4% over seven sessions), which is what separates positioning from a break. This was rotation, not advance.
Two moves earned their gains with evidence. Energy confirmed across every layer — producers, service names, refiners and the oil fund all positive on the week, with refiners $PSX (RSI 76.7) and $VLO (RSI 73.0) now the firmest reads in the complex and both within a quarter-point of 52-week highs; the caution is that a +7.67% week arriving at RSI 67 is confirmation, not an entry. Memory moved as one group for the first time in weeks, and this time the receipt exists: Sandisk ripped +35.38% on the week with fiscal fourth-quarter results and a board-approved $14 billion repurchase program on file with the SEC, and an August 13 announcement that it began sampling its tenth-generation BiCS10 1Tb TLC NAND. Micron (+10.72%), Seagate (+19.77%), Western Digital (+17.15%) and SK hynix's ADR (+20.61%) all came with it. Coverage this week also put Micron and Sandisk among the most-traded stocks on the US tape — the crowding that is the flip side of a trade this loud.
Then there is the other half of the tape, where large, cross-confirmed moves have no driver on record. Broadcom fell −5.94% in a single session, RSI collapsing 64.6 → 46.5; a fresh news pull on the name returned quote pages and a 2024 filing, nothing dated to the session. China's baskets dropped in lockstep — $FXI 64.7 → 46.4, $KWEB 64.3 → 46.0 — and the fresh pull on $FXI explicitly identified no company or macro development; the $KWEB receipt on file predates the move by weeks and is not evidence of absence. Atlassian carried RSI 78.9 and a +76.77% month into a second week; its annual report for the year ended June 30 was filed August 14 and its fiscal fourth-quarter print landed in late July, so the run is bracketed by dated events nobody here has read the numbers from — dated, not explained. And Unusual Machines closed +25.04% at $34.06, pennies under a fresh 52-week high of $34.93 set intraday the same session, on 4.24x average volume; the only live artifact behind it is a 60-point message-board gain screenshot. Its June-quarter filing is real — revenue $16.7M against $2.1M a year earlier — but so are the auditor change and charter amendment disclosed two days before the move, and nobody has read them.
What is gone from this market is the discount rack. No name in the tracked corpus closed below RSI 30 outside decay-risk leveraged products — the second straight week — while the momentum board's overbought list grew from 41 names to 55. The strict deep-value screen returned zero names for the first time in this window. That is not a bearish signal by itself; it is a statement about what is available. If this breakout stalls there is no oversold cohort to rotate into, and every conditional entry on the desk's list is a wait, not a buy.
Watch Monday: the weekend produced no confirmed development that changes Friday's picture. Monday needs four checks — whether energy's +7.67% week holds or hands it back (the freshest energy item on the macro wire is still the August 4 UN report on Strait of Hormuz disruption, ten days stale to this move); whether any driver surfaces for Broadcom or the China baskets; $FN's Monday print as the first optical read-through since Coherent's quarter, with $BHP alongside it; and — before anyone touches Unusual Machines — the August 11 and August 12 filings covering the change in certifying accountant and the charter amendment. $HD, $KEYS, $BIDU, $AS, $KLAR, $SQM and $HSAI are scheduled for Tuesday.
Extended analysis
Leaders and laggards
571 advancing 492 declining 73.3% above the 200-day Color is 7-day price direction, not a buy or sell call.
Leaders
top 7D gainersLaggards
top 7D losers2. What Changed Since the Last Brief
Screen CROSSINGS between the previous brief's close ( ) and this one — a name appears only on the session it crossed, not for as long as it stays there. Every name carries its before → after.
New oversold (3) — BBAR RSI 32.6 → 29.5, ELPC RSI 31.4 → 29.5, FTCI RSI 31 → 29.9.
New overbought (14) — HTFL RSI 65.9 → 83.7, IOVA RSI 69.4 → 73, UMAC RSI 61.8 → 72.2, AEM RSI 68.8 → 72.1, MDT RSI 69.4 → 71, SMCI RSI 69.8 → 70.7, CON RSI 69.4 → 70.5, ATI RSI 69.7 → 70.3, KTOS RSI 68.1 → 70.3, COFE RSI 67.2 → 70.2, NERD RSI 65 → 70.2, RTXE RSI 67.4 → 70.2, PTGX RSI 67.3 → 70.1, BOAT RSI 66.1 → 70.
Golden crossings (6) — CHYM -0.6% → 0.37%, HTFL -0.42% → 0.49%, MA -0.13% → 0.25%, PG -0.04% → 0.04%, PI -0.48% → 0.23%, SHW -0.06% → 0.28%.
Death crossings (3) — HCC 0.01% → -0.37%, IPGP 0.24% → -0.46%, SHA0.DE 0.6% → -0.12%.
New monsters (27) — MXL 76.8% → 94.2%, MAAS 81.1% → 89.8%, PENG 78.5% → 85.9%, FCEL 62% → 77.2%, MU 73.1% → 75.8%, AMD 49.5% → 58.6%, AAOI 37.8% → 58.2%, CHYM 48.5% → 47.4%, HTFL 7.5% → 45.8%, DIOD 27.3% → 35.1%, ALOY 18.9% → 34.8%, HIMX 29.3% → 34%, RDW 29.4% → 32.8%, SM 27.7% → 32.6%, LPTH 13.9% → 31.3%, DAR 29% → 31.1%, +11 more.
Newly near a 52-week high (28) — IOVA -5.78% → -0.29% from high, 2383.TW -8.96% → -1.36% from high, OSCR -7.01% → -1.53% from high, DCO -5.4% → -1.62% from high, HTFL -24.77% → -2.14% from high, UMAC -20.72% → -2.49% from high, EPD -5.35% → -3.16% from high, DXPE -7.16% → -3.44% from high, 6103.T -5.08% → -3.68% from high, DLR -5.07% → -3.84% from high, IRM -5.98% → -3.9% from high, NHC -5.51% → -3.9% from high, 6501.T -5.04% → -3.95% from high, LTH -6.2% → -4.19% from high, WEAT -6.75% → -4.26% from high, CAKE -5.55% → -4.29% from high, +12 more.
Newly in an entry zone (1) — NTR $68.24 · $68-$71.
3. Three Things
- Energy took the week — the sector fund's RSI vaulted 17.3 points to 67.4 on a +7.67% run, the sharpest move on the macro board, with every producer, service name and refiner posting a positive week.
- Four large, cross-confirmed moves have no driver on record — Broadcom −5.94% in a session, $FXI and $KWEB each down ~18 RSI points, Atlassian's +76.77% month, and Unusual Machines' +25.04% day.
- Nothing is cheap and plenty is stretched — zero names under RSI 30 outside leveraged products for a second straight week, against 55 names on the overbought list, up from 41.
4. The Big Picture
The tape held its breakout and stopped advancing; the movement went sideways instead of up.
Act 1 — Rotation Without Advance. VOO $713.61, RSI 66.0, breakout regime for a second week — and +0.41% to show for it. Every broad benchmark sits within about two points of a 52-week high with no death cross anywhere in the group, but the leadership inside them churned: equal-weight ($RSP, RSI 71.0) and value ($VTV, RSI 72.6) pushed into outright overbought while consumer discretionary and materials gave back last week's gains. Volatility products slid deeper into collapse ($VIXY RSI 32.8, $VXX 33.8) and are now the macro board's only sub-40 readings. VIX at 14.25 with orderly credit says no one is paying up for protection.
Act 2 — The Two Moves That Confirmed. Energy's read is the cleanest structural signal on the board: $XLE RSI 67.4, up from 50.1 a week earlier, the oil fund's weekly change flipping from −8.66% to +7.31%, services (+8.51%) and exploration (+8.47%) both up hard, refiners overbought and at highs. It is real and it is extended. Memory is the second, and it comes with paper: Sandisk's SEC-filed fiscal Q4 and $14 billion buyback authorization, plus the BiCS10 1Tb TLC sampling announcement dated August 13, against a +35.38% week. Seagate, Western Digital, Micron and SK hynix's ADR all moved with it — the first synchronized run in the complex in weeks.
Act 3 — The Unexplained Four. Broadcom's −5.94% session was the sharpest reversal tracked anywhere this week and was independently flagged in four separate screens, all of which came back with no source. $FXI and $KWEB fell ~18 RSI points together out of overbought; the fresh check on $FXI returned no discrete event, and the $KWEB receipt on file is weeks older than the move. Atlassian's RSI 78.9 / +76.77% month is now two weeks old with the numbers behind its late-July print and its August 14 annual filing still unread here. Unusual Machines' +25.04% day closed pennies under a fresh high with a message-board screenshot as the only live artifact. Four verified moves with unknown causes is a different risk shape than four explainable ones — you cannot fade what you cannot name.
5. Focus List
All figures are the Friday August 14 settled close.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | Trend | Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | $495.40 | 70.9 | +10.0% | −0.92% | +25.22% | up | Overbought inside a breakout, still death-crossed — a +25% month with a flat week is a chart that's asking for a rest. |
| TSLA | $342.27 | 48.7 | +4.0% | +4.17% | −13.23% | strong-down | Second straight week clawing out of oversold; collapse regime and −31.85% off the high say repaired sentiment, not repaired structure. |
| NVDA | $225.16 | 62.8 | +7.0% | +0.54% | +5.96% | strong-up | Golden cross intact, but the regime tag slipped from uptrend to basing on almost no price change — consolidation, not distribution. |
| AAPL | $305.93 | 43.8 | −3.9% | −2.28% | −6.51% | weak-down | Below its 20-day, above its 200-day, golden cross intact — a mild pullback that has stabilized rather than deepened. |
| GOOGL | $345.90 | 46.7 | −0.1% | −2.37% | −6.75% | weak-down | Pinned exactly at its 20-day with a −12.77% quarter; the cohort's clearest orderly cooling. |
| AMZN | $262.65 | 53.4 | +2.4% | −4.31% | +3.02% | strong-up | Worst week of the mega-caps but the only one still tagged uptrend with an intact golden cross. |
| NET | $315.78 | 64.3 | +10.1% | +5.17% | +15.65% | strong-up | 0.42% from a 52-week high, +59.84% on the quarter, 46% above its volume-weighted cost basis — leadership, and priced like it. |
| ARM | $279.44 | 50.9 | +4.8% | −1.11% | +0.88% | weak-down | 30-day return turned positive for the first time this stretch; sitting at the top edge of its $255–280 support band, still death-crossed. |
| NTR | $68.24 | 54.3 | +0.8% | +5.93% | −0.13% | up | Best week in the fertilizer complex while Mosaic's month flipped negative — the split inside agriculture widened. |
| MU | $971.66 | 56.5 | +9.2% | +10.72% | +7.45% | strong-up | Moved with the whole memory complex for the first time in weeks; 24.32% off its high, so this is a recovery, not a breakout. |
| SNDK | $1,641.11 | 57.0 | +21.2% | +35.38% | +1.62% | weak-down | The week's biggest move in the focus list, and the only one with a filing behind it — fiscal Q4 plus a $14B buyback authorization. |
| OUST | $48.71 | 59.2 | +19.9% | +12.24% | +28.35% | strong-up | Lidar's turn continues; 19.9% above its 20-day is where the risk now sits. |
| IONQ | $46.26 | 59.6 | +19.8% | +4.12% | +23.33% | strong-up | Best structure of the quantum sleeve — but 46.86% off its high, and still a pullback regime, not a base. |
| RGTI | $18.82 | 60.4 | +16.4% | +4.91% | +23.41% | weak-up | Sharp gain, downtrend tag unchanged — the group's recurring pattern of price without structure. |
| QBTS | $21.17 | 55.1 | +11.1% | +1.97% | +15.87% | weak-up | Same shape as its peers: month up, regime still downtrend, 55.29% off the high. |
| QUBT | $9.01 | 54.0 | +7.3% | −1.85% | +12.06% | strong-down | Thesis tagged broken and the regime feed pushed it further into collapse this week — the sleeve's weakest link. |
| INFQ | $12.86 | 61.0 | +20.7% | +7.98% | +30.29% | neutral | Best month in the basket, but a too-young regime means there isn't enough history to grade the trend. |
| XNDU | $11.53 | 54.6 | +7.2% | +4.82% | +6.17% | neutral | Quiet drift; 74.6% off its high is the number that matters here. |
| HQ | $16.99 | 52.5 | +16.1% | +20.24% | −22.46% | neutral | A +20% week inside a −22% month — the clearest single example of this group's whipsaw. |
| ARQQ | $24.36 | 62.1 | +22.4% | +6.38% | +33.48% | up | Strongest month in the sleeve and 22.4% above its 20-day; extension is the risk, not the thesis. |
| LAES | $3.01 | 65.9 | +18.6% | +17.12% | +13.58% | weak-up | Regime improved collapse → downtrend on Friday's bar; two 6-K filings landed the same day. |
| PL | $24.69 | 52.4 | +10.6% | +3.18% | −0.84% | down | Thesis flagged broken, collapse regime, 52.18% off the high — a bounce inside damage. |
| ARGX | $851.29 | 45.5 | −2.0% | −1.59% | −1.35% | weak-down | Quiet cooling inside an intact uptrend; 10.13% off its high. |
| ILMN | $190.89 | 50.2 | −1.9% | +1.56% | +2.00% | strong-up | Boring in the good way — uptrend regime, +33.92% quarter, 6.94% off its high. |
Microsoft is the list's tension: RSI 70.9 and 10% above its 20-day on a +25.22% month, with the 50-day still under the 200-day. That combination — overbought price, unrepaired structure — is the one that punishes chasers. Interest belongs at a 200-day reclaim that holds after a base, not at this print.
Sandisk and Micron are the same trade at two speeds. Sandisk's +35.38% week arrived with a filed quarter and a $14 billion authorization; Micron's +10.72% arrived with no company-specific item on file at all. Both sit 24–35% below their 52-week highs, which is the tell that this is a repair of a violent July unwind rather than a fresh leg.
The quantum sleeve did the same thing it has done for weeks: eight of nine names posted double-digit monthly gains while their regime tags stayed in downtrend or collapse. Not one printed a higher low plus a reclaimed rising average on volume — the single condition that would turn a basket into a name.
Planet Labs is the list's honest failure: a +3.18% week on a broken thesis, collapse regime and a 52.18% drawdown. A green week does not repair that.
6. Sector Scorecard
| Sector | RSI Range | Trend | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy (E&P) | 63–64 ($XOP 63.3, $CVX 64.4, $XOM 64.0) | strong-up | The week's only cross-confirmed structural move — and already extended. |
| Oil Services | 55–65 ($OIH 65.1, $HAL 55.4) | mixed | Services joined at +8.51% on the week; Halliburton's month is still negative — participation without leadership. |
| Refiners | 73–77 ($VLO 73.0, $PSX 76.7) | strong-up | Overbought and within a quarter-point of 52-week highs. Confirmation, not entry. |
| Agriculture | 37–60 ($CTVA 37.1, $CORN 59.8) | split | Grains firm, fertilizer fractured — Nutrien +5.93% while Mosaic's month flipped to −6.21%. |
| Precious Metals | 60–66 ($GLD 63.3, $GDX 66.4, $SLV 59.8) | pausing | Flat weeks on top of double-digit months; gold's death-cross gap narrowed to −2.6%, the closest yet to flipping. |
| Biotech | 34–77 ($XBI 58.2, $REGN 76.9) | two-tier | Four names overbought while Ginkgo fell into the 30s — the widest internal spread on the board. |
| Custom Silicon | 46–58 ($AVGO 46.5, $CRDO 58.1, $ALAB 48.9) | broken leader | Broadcom's unexplained −5.94% session took the lane's anchor down 18 RSI points in a day. |
| Defense | 64–71 ($RTX 70.6, $NOC 70.2, $LMT 67.8, $ITA 64.4) | strong-up | No extremes, no laggards — the primes are firm and boring while the small-cap drone tier does the moving. |
| Broad Indices | 60–71 ($SPY 65.8, $QQQ 59.6, $RSP 71.0) | strong-up | Near highs, no death crosses, and equal-weight now the only benchmark above 70. |
| Mega-Cap Tech | 44–71 ($MSFT 70.9, $NVDA 62.8, $AAPL 43.8, $GOOGL 46.7) | dispersing | Four names, four postures — this cohort has not moved as a bloc for weeks. |
| Enterprise SaaS | 51–75 ($MDB 75.1, $SNOW 72.1, $ZS 70.2, $FTNT 51.9) | hot, thinning | Cloud funds cooled while single names extended; Fortinet's month flipped negative and Okta broke from the cyber cluster. |
| Consumer | 36–77 ($PYPL 77.4, $BRBR 36.0, $HIMS 42.8) | rough | The cultural-signals book's worst week in a while: Hims −24.27% on the month, Lululemon's RSI down 18 points. |
| Housing | 51–52 ($XHB 51.7, $ITB 51.4) | cooling | Both gave back last week's sharp recovery; home construction still death-crossed. |
| International | 46–67 ($EFA 66.7, $EWJ 65.4, $FXI 46.4, $EWZ 36.6) | bifurcated | Developed markets at highs, China's baskets in freefall, Brazil the sleeve's only other clear negative. |
| Crypto | 34–50 ($BTC-USD 41.7, $COIN 44.1, $MARA 34.4) | risk-off | Bitcoin's RSI fell to 41.7 on a −2.92% month; three of four spot proxies were downgraded back to collapse. |
ETF tape · 42 funds
The desk's curated ETF read — one fund per lane it tracks, not every fund on the watchlists — grouped by what the fund is exposed to, and where each closed on the issue date. The big number and the tile's shade are that session's move (1D); 7D and 30D are the trailing windows behind it, and RSI is the 14-day reading (above 70 is stretched, below 30 washed out). Shades near flat stay gray — a ±0.25% day is not a color.
Index & international · 9 funds
Tech, AI & cloud · 9 funds
Health & biotech · 3 funds
Commodities, energy & metals · 7 funds
Rates, credit, dollar & vol · 6 funds
Crypto · 2 funds
Income & real assets · 3 funds
7. Market Vibe
This is a market that has run out of things to buy cheaply and has not yet run out of nerve. Zero names below RSI 30 outside leveraged products, for the second week running — and the strict deep-value screen returning literally nothing for the first time in this tracked window — is a genuine condition, not a scanning quirk. Against it sits an overbought list that grew from 41 names to 55. When both ends of the distribution move the same direction, what you have is a tape that has already priced its good news and holds no cushion.
The rotation is doing real work underneath. Money moved into web infrastructure and cloud software (relative strength +17.8 and +15.3) and out of the mega-cap complex and the AI-power lane (−9.4 and −8.4). Memory is the fastest-accelerating lane on the board (+17.0) on only 17% breadth — a probe, not a confirmation. Humanoid robotics, Canadian oil and gas, and nearline storage all turned up before the trailing board did. Fading: government compute and copper, the latter down −2.65% on the week after leading the prior one.
What doesn't fit: bonds. Every long-duration and credit proxy slid back toward or below neutral this week — 20-year Treasuries at RSI 40.3, negative on both the week and the month and the only gauge on the desk's weather board negative on both — while equities held. High-yield, the one bond fund that has never carried a death cross, was flat at RSI 62.4. Equity strength without a bond bid is a mild divergence, not a warning, but it is the thing to watch if the breakout cracks. The other misfit is China: an 18-point simultaneous collapse in two large, liquid baskets, in the same week developed international sat at 52-week highs, with no event attached to it in anything the desk holds.
8. Scan Dashboard — Every Screen at a Glance
6a. The Dashboard
| Scan | Signal | Top Ticker | RSI | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Pulse | 🟡 | $XLE | 67.4 | Energy up 17 RSI points, China down 18, indices barely moved. |
| AI Sector | 🟡 | $AVGO | 46.5 | Memory surged together; Broadcom fell 5.9% with no driver on file. |
| AI Infrastructure | 🟠 | $P | 83.9 | Everpure's RSI vaulted to 83.9 on a +67% month; zero oversold names left. |
| Biotech | 🟢 | $REGN | 76.9 | Four names overbought; the oversold band swapped occupants. |
| NVIDIA Ecosystem | 🟡 | $AVGO | 46.5 | Broadcom's 18-point drop is the cut's sharpest; ASML and GEV upgraded. |
| Defensives | 🟡 | $TGT | 72.3 | Home Depot reversed 13 RSI points; utilities climbed 12 off the floor. |
| Healthcare | 🟢 | $ABT | 73.4 | Merck gained 14 RSI points into breakout; two names cleared collapse. |
| Consumer | 🟡 | $PYPL | 77.4 | Monster's "crash" was a 2-for-1 split; PayPal overbought a fourth week. |
| Retail | 🟡 | $TGT | 72.3 | Target alone extends; TJX, Amer Sports and Deckers all broke down. |
| Cloud ETFs | 🟢 | $SKYY | 73.9 | Three of four cooled; SKYY extended alone on a +20.66% month. |
| Cybersecurity | 🟡 | $ZS | 70.2 | Zscaler crossed into overbought; Fortinet's month flipped negative. |
| EV & Clean Energy | 🔴 | $SEDG | 34.8 | Last week's relief rally reversed; oversold cohort back to three names. |
| ETF Universe | 🟡 | $SOXS | 26.9 | China baskets shed ~18 RSI points each; inverse semis the lowest read. |
| Insider Activity | 🟢 | $RBLX | 38.7 | Zero names under RSI 30 for a second week; CRSP, INTC, TSM buying. |
| Bargain Bin | 🟢 | $TTD | 34.6 | The strict screen returns zero names — a first in this window. |
| Tech Insider Buys | 🟠 | $ESTC | 85.1 | Elastic at RSI 85; Atlassian's +76.77% month still unattributed. |
| Crypto | 🔴 | $BTC-USD | 41.7 | Bitcoin's RSI fell 13 points; three spot proxies back to collapse. |
| Macro & Commodities | 🟡 | $VTV | 72.6 | Value and equal-weight overbought; metals paused, not reversed. |
| Defense Contractors | 🟢 | $RTX | 70.6 | No extremes in the book; LEU's +21.5% month against a −58.7% drawdown. |
| Geopolitical Risk | 🟢 | $PSX | 76.7 | Every producer, service name and refiner positive on the week. |
| Optical Supply Chain | 🟢 | $AAOI | 60.9 | Collapse pocket empty a second week; two book leaders printed zero volume. |
| Drone & Defense | 🟠 | $UMAC | 72.3 | Unusual Machines +25% in a session; components outran the primes. |
| Supply-Chain Traces | 🟢 | $MP | 67.1 | MP Materials cleared its last collapse tag; Carpenter whipsawed a third time. |
| Semiconductor Equipment | 🟡 | $ASML | 59.8 | ASML repaired its last weak spot as Applied dropped to the book's low. |
| Food Security | 🟡 | $NTR | 54.3 | ADM broke a five-week slide; Mosaic's month flipped negative. |
| Cultural Signals | 🔴 | $BRBR | 36.0 | The book's roughest week: Hims −24.27%, Lululemon's RSI down 18 points. |
| Airlines | 🔴 | $DAL | 52.3 | All six lower; three broke back to weak-down; Alaska −8.01%. |
| Chemicals | 🟢 | $LYB | 58.2 | Dow and Lyondell reversed to the sector's strongest; Sherwin's cross cleared. |
| Travel & Leisure | 🟡 | $ABNB | 75.0 | Expedia pushed into overbought on the sector's best week (+7.08%). |
| Momentum Board | 🟠 | $CRNX | 90.6 | 482 names across 82 lists; the overbought list grew 41 → 55. |
| Turnaround Watch | 🟡 | $RCAT | 66.1 | 63 deep-drawdown names turning up; nearly all still death-crossed. |
| Momentum ETF Screen | 🟡 | $COWZ | 76.0 | 39 of 50 funds below every threshold; free-cash-flow funds at highs. |
| Lazarus Watch | 🟡 | $ADBE | 59.0 | Five fallen-quality names waking up; none has cleared the entry gate. |
Momentum Discovery and Momentum Rotation Discovery were deliberately not regenerated this cycle — both ran August 13, inside their seven-day window. Their absence is a schedule decision, not a coverage gap.
6b. Expanded Dispatches
Bargain Bin. The strict filter — RSI under 30 and price under the 20-day — returned zero names for the first time in this tracked window. Last week's lone hit, The Trade Desk, recovered its RSI to 34.6 from 28.2 while still sitting 16.3% below its 20-day average: off the list without a reversal. The closest-miss tier widened to eleven names below their 20-day, the largest such cohort tracked here. When the discount screen empties out, the market isn't safe — it's just fully priced.
Drone & Defense. Unusual Machines' +25.04% session was the largest one-day move in the 22-name book, and it came alongside Red Cat +8.80% and Ondas +3.70% — small components names outrunning the two large caps, AeroVironment (+1.78%) and Kratos (+2.85%), on the day and the week. The 30-day window tells the opposite story: AeroVironment's +36.53% month beats both, even while it and Kratos still carry death crosses and downtrend tags. nLIGHT went the other way, dropping into collapse on a −22.44% month with its own stated stop only 5% below the price.
Semiconductor Equipment. ASML cleared the book's last weak spot, lifting to uptrend as its 30-day return finally turned positive at +1.72% after two straight weeks as the only negative month in the group. Applied Materials moved the other way on a −5.12% single session, its RSI down to 45.0 and its month at −12.47% — now the lowest read in the book. Its quarterly print landed on the calendar this week and the figures are not yet in hand here, which makes the drop dated but not decoded.
Momentum Board. 482 names across 82 lists — 47 parabolic, 78 momentum, 76 strong. The extremes are getting silly: Crinetics at RSI 90.6 sitting +76.8% above its 200-day, AbCellera at RSI 84.1 and +146.8% above its 200-day after a +64.21% week. The overbought roster grew from 41 names to 55 in a week. That is a fatter tail than the tape's own +0.41% index week justifies.
Turnaround Watch. 63 deep-drawdown names turned up on both trailing windows — Red Cat (+20.9% week), Archer (+18.4%), SEALSQ (+17.1%), Intuitive Machines (+15.9%), MP Materials (+14.9%). Nearly every row still carries a death cross, which is the point of the class: this is leg two of bottom → pop → flag → breakout, and the flag hasn't been printed yet. Four rows arrived already overbought (Kratos, Leidos, Agnico, Zscaler), which historically means the pop is running ahead of the base.
9. The Front Page — Deep Research Teasers
7a. Perspective Dispatches
Every figure below is read from the current price summaries at Friday's close, not from perspective bodies.
AI Power Bottleneck. The demand case held and the cohort still sold: Nebius +47.73% on the week (RSI 64.5, uptrend) against IREN, Applied Digital, Cipher and TeraWulf all still tagged collapse. Site-level permitting joined the risk list after a second major metro moved toward a data-center moratorium.
AI Power Delivery. The delivery layer took the week's damage — Alpha & Omega −14.72% on the week into its own stated $30.00–34.50 support band, Power Integrations at RSI 45.2 on a −11.64% month, Vicor recovering +6.12% but still −9.78% on the month. Applied Materials' print is the next real gate and its numbers are unread.
Gulf Infrastructure Strike. Quiet week for the helium and Hormuz storyline; no fresh Ras Laffan development landed. Linde at RSI 38.0 is the chemicals sector's only sub-40 read, and the depletion-window calendar keeps closing regardless of news flow.
Risk-On Tech Rotation. The surviving concentrated-long cohort refuses to move as a bloc — Microsoft in breakout at RSI 70.9, Nvidia consolidating at 62.8, Alphabet and Amazon cooling inside live uptrends. On the cyber leg, CrowdStrike sits 0.60% from a 52-week high with an inflecting operating margin flagged the same week.
The Gold Anomaly. Gold paused rather than reversed: +0.76% on the week atop a +7.82% month, with the death-cross cushion narrowed to −2.6% — the closest this fund has come to flipping in the tracked window. Miners held their 200-day breakout for a second week but stopped extending (+0.09%).
AI Optical Supercycle. The lane split violently: Applied Optoelectronics +15.53% and LightPath +15.63% on the day, against Coherent −14.06% on the week. Curated reads this week attribute the InP laser-capacity constraint to a company earnings call rather than analyst framing — the closest thing to primary language this thesis has had in weeks, still not a filing.
US Energy Dominance. The cleanest confirmation on the board: exploration +8.47%, services +8.51%, Chevron RSI 64.4 and Exxon 64.0, refiners overbought at highs. Copper stays the one deteriorating sub-leg, −2.65% on the week after leading the prior one.
Memory Supercycle. The whole cohort moved as one — Sandisk +35.38%, SK hynix's ADR +20.61%, Seagate +19.77%, Western Digital +17.15%, Micron +10.72%, Korea's country fund +8.22%. Coverage naming Micron and Sandisk among the most-traded US stocks is exactly the crowding this thesis carries as its number-one risk.
SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event. No SpaceX-specific development landed, and the perspective's own scheduled retrospective date has now passed without a lifecycle decision — flagged, not resolved. The AI-infrastructure cohort's weakness this week traces to permitting and delivery risk, not to anything listing-related.
Nearline HDD Storage. The rotation board flags nearline storage as an emerging lane (57% of names up) and the four-name cohort was green together. Still no drive-maker call content on file — the supply-discipline gate this thesis actually depends on remains unfilled.
Livestock Disease. Wendy's ran +12.35% on the week to RSI 62.2 on above-average volume, tagged to this lane by the desk's own cross-signal detector — and the cause is unverified. No screwworm or agency detection content landed; do not read a beef-substitution story into an unexplained volume spike.
Biotech Capital Cycle. AbCellera printed RSI 84.1 on a +64.21% week and +178.24% quarter, 0.86% off its high — the single most extended name in the desk's universe. Twist +141.14% on the quarter and Repligen at RSI 70.7 say the picks-and-shovels tier is participating; IQVIA at +14.43% on the month is the laggard finally moving.
Nuclear Fuel Cycle. Centrus posted the defense book's largest monthly gain (+21.47%) while sitting 58.68% below its 52-week high — the widest short-run/long-run disagreement anywhere in that book. Cameco was essentially flat (+0.36%); Constellation's RSI climbed to 63.2 but its regime still reads downtrend.
CPU Shortage Supply Chain. Amkor's collapse → pullback flip landed on Friday's bar, cross-confirming three separate screens; Credo +14.62% on the month. Astera Labs is the lane's laggard at −8.27% on the month. The ABF-substrate anchor showed up as a rotation leader for the first time — on zero shares traded, which is a caveat, not a signal.
China Structural Discount. The thesis's core claim — that this is a multiple problem, not an earnings problem — got a violent demonstration: $FXI and $KWEB each shed ~18 RSI points out of overbought with no identified driver, while developed-market international funds sat at 52-week highs. Isolation confirmed; re-rate absent.
AI Capex Digestion. The rotation into value and breadth kept running — equal-weight and value both crossed into overbought while the mega-cap complex bled relative strength (−9.4). Oracle remains the cohort's broken member at 54.81% off its high in collapse regime. The read stays rotation, not reckoning.
Physical AI / Robotics. Ouster +12.24% on the week and Teradyne +22.41% on the month keep the profitable arms-dealer tier in front; Intuitive Surgical cleared collapse to downtrend but still hasn't confirmed. Zebra's +47.36% month against a robotics basket up 1.9% is idiosyncratic strength, not a sector ride.
Quantum Computing. The basket whipsawed again without converting: eight names posted double-digit monthly gains while their regime tags stayed downtrend or collapse, and Quantum Computing Inc's thesis is tagged broken. Not one printed the higher low plus reclaimed rising average on volume that would justify a single-name rotation.
AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime. The week's one relevant item: Bloomberg reported August 14 that Anthropic's second-quarter revenue jumped at least 14-fold year over year to more than $11.5 billion with positive adjusted operating income, ahead of investor meetings for a potential listing — attributed to Bloomberg's reporting; no primary company document is on hand. Nothing in the mega-cap tape shows a funding-source pattern yet.
Trump Policy Ticker Catalysts. No qualifying direct post or policy remark named any tracked ticker this week. The closest thing to a policy trade was a message-board post branding Unusual Machines' +25% day a "trump trade" — retail framing, not a source, and precisely the confound this event study exists to reject.
The Midterm Window. No new trigger fired beyond the earlier cluster. Conditions still read as the window's supportive setup — small caps up 1.17% on the week to RSI 63.7, equal-weight overbought, fear disarmed at VIX 14.25 — but the consumer-cyclical handoff the window needs hasn't happened, with discretionary down 1.38% on the week.
Drone Defense. Opened this week. The tension it exists to adjudicate showed up immediately: a prime rebuilding from a stop-work order and a class-action overhang (AeroVironment, +36.53% month, still death-crossed) against a components pure-play scaling on a dilution-funded war chest (Unusual Machines, +83.91% month, 2.48% from a fresh high). Owning "drones" is not one trade.
7b. Momentum Watch
| Ticker | Price | vs SMA200 | 3M% | Theme | Why It's Interesting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $ABCL | $11.38 | +146.8% | +178.2% | AI-bio platforms | The board's most extended name — RSI 84.1, +64.21% in one week, 0.86% off its high. |
| $UMAC | $34.06 | +109.1% | +110.3% | Drone components | +25.04% in a session on 4.24x volume, pennies under a fresh 52-week high, no driver on record. |
| $DELL | $490.81 | +114.2% | +103.2% | AI systems | Doubled in a quarter with an operating margin inflecting to 8.3% from a 6.0% prior-four-quarter median. |
| $STX | $973.44 | +77.2% | +22.5% | Nearline storage | +19.77% on the week as the whole memory complex moved together for the first time in weeks. |
| $CRNX | $84.70 | +76.8% | +130.3% | Biotech | RSI 90.6 — the highest reading in the corpus — on a month that moved +0.95%. Persistence, not thrust. |
The clusters this week are biotech platforms, AI systems and storage, and the drone components tier. What links them is that three of the five are 100%+ above their own 200-day averages, which is where the arithmetic of mean reversion starts working against you regardless of the story.
7c. Deep Dive Spotlight
Unusual Machines — low conviction, entry does not exist here. Revenue is real now and profits still aren't: $16,722,467 in the June quarter against $2,123,970 a year earlier, with gross profit of $5.8M against $0.79M — but operating income was −$7,834,143, worse than the year-ago quarter on roughly eight times the revenue. The two profitable quarters came from a $39.3M equity-securities book, not operations, and share count went from 16.8 million to 50.0 million in fifteen months. Verdict: avoid at $34.06; entry zone $21–24, stop $18.50, speculative sleeve only. The zone sits 41.9% below the current price.
AeroVironment — medium conviction, the trade is the flag, not the pop. The merger doubled revenue and destroyed GAAP earnings in the same year: fiscal 2026 revenue $1.977B (+140.9%) with a $265.1M net loss against a $43.6M profit the year before. The June-quarter beat is real and is most of the +36.53% month; the death cross from the January stop-work order and the March award loss has not closed, and the point of control at $199.98 is overhead supply. Verdict: don't chase at $192.81; entry zone $163–180, stop $158, target $276. The trade is a retest of the $176.42 shelf, not this print.
All 49 tracked company profiles carry a fresh Friday tape note. Two stand out: Atlassian at RSI 78.9 in a parabolic regime with a confirmed death cross, and Dell at +103.16% on the quarter with a golden cross intact.
7d. Sector Rotation Radar
| Theme | Top Mover | RSI | 30D% | Direction | Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI Infrastructure | $PLTR | 68.3 | +30.11% | ↑ extended | Biggest mover by magnitude, still death-crossed — extension, not entry. |
| Biotech | $AMGN | 70.3 | +15.88% | ↑ | Closest to a fresh high (−1.33%) but near-overbought inside an already-extended breakout. |
| Cloud SaaS | $CRWD | 61.4 | +4.92% | ↑ clean | The only golden-cross uptrend within a percentage point of a 52-week high. |
| Consumer | $SBUX | 58.0 | +2.45% | → | Steadiest name and 0.68% from a high, but a basing tag keeps it short of a promote. |
| Crypto | $HOOD | 48.9 | −17.29% | ↓ | The complex's only golden cross and positive week inside an otherwise downtrend regime. |
| Energy | $GEV | 56.4 | +0.76% | ↑ | Best week in the basket (+7.36%) in a golden-cross uptrend — the cleanest promote of the eleven. |
| Mag 7 | $MSFT | 70.9 | +25.22% | ↑ stretched | The most extended chart in the group and still death-crossed; no name clears a clean bar. |
| Memory | $STX | 62.0 | +17.52% | ↑ hot | Sharpest single-week move in the basket (+19.77%); Micron is the better-supported name. |
| Retail | $TJX | 42.0 | +1.07% | ↓ | The only golden-crossed name and the tightest to a high, but −5.43% on the week. |
| Space | $LUNR | 62.8 | +28.01% | ↑ fragile | Sharpest move in the complex, still death-crossed and 62.44% off its high — a watch. |
| Web Cloud | $NET | 64.3 | +15.65% | ↑ leader | Golden cross, uptrend, thesis intact, 0.42% from a high — the cleanest structure on the board. |
Monster Watch · 240 of 1092 tracked names
Sector Rotation Radar · 70 themes
Flow means 30-day relative strength versus SPY, not dollars moving: Inflow beat SPY by more than 2 points, Outflow trailed by more than 2, and Neutral stayed inside that band.
reference_jasonl_capital_kopn_check.md). Kopin Corporation, $3.97 microcap. Claimed: MicroLED… Ark Neutral +4.1% 30D ARK Invest ETFs - tracking Cathie Wood's funds Robotics Neutral +3.8% 30D Robotics & physical-AI across the stack — seeded 2026-06-27 from @mkfilko + @MMatters22596 robotics baskets (live rotation theme). Layers: brain/compute (NVDA Isaac/GR00T, BB/QNX OS), vision (CGNX, AMBA), lidar/sensors… AI Infra Neutral +3.0% 30D AI Infrastructure - hyperscalers (AMZN), GPUs (NVDA), lithography (ASML), power generation (TAC — TransAlta, Canadian IPP: hydro/wind/solar/battery/gas, NOT nuclear; label corrected 2026-06-19 from 'nuclear'), foundry… ETF Ideas Neutral +3.0% 30D ETF Ideas - Index (QQQM, QQQ, VOO, VTI), 3x Leveraged (TQQQ, SOXL, SPXL, TECL — paper-book legal instruments only; the full exempt set lives in config/avoid-instruments.json), Inverse (SOXS — degen Rule 6, data-only),… IBB Neutral +2.9% 30D Biotechnology cohort spanning large-cap therapeutics, rare disease, gene editing, diagnostics, life-science tools, and CROs. Biotech Neutral +2.8% 30D Biotech scan - broader universe for opportunity discovery. ETFs (XBI, IBB, IBBQ), Large cap pharma (ABBV, GILD, AMGN, LLY, VRTX, REGN), GLP-1 (NVO, LLY), mRNA (BNTX, MRNA), gene editing (CRSP, BEAM, EDIT, NTLA),… Macro Commodities Neutral +2.7% 30D Macro & commodities - oil (USO/BNO), natgas (UNG), gold (GLD/GDX/GDXJ/GDRZF), silver (SLV/SIL), copper (COPX), agriculture (DBA/WEAT/CORN/SOYB/AGRO), specialty chemicals (CE), uranium (URA), dollar (UUP), euro (FXE),… Spacex S1 Supply Chain Neutral +2.7% 30D SpaceX S-1 picks-and-shovels + space peers screen (2026-06-04): AI-compute/power/optical supply chain, space industrial base, disrupted incumbents, holders. Tied to spacex-s1 investigations. Humanoid Robotics Neutral +2.5% 30D Humanoid robotics components — sensors and motion control for the 2027-2028 humanoid wave. Component layer: VPG (Vishay Precision Group — strain gauges and force/torque sensors), MOG-A (Moog — precision motion… Defensive Neutral +2.5% 30D Defensive/Value - ETFs (XLP consumer staples, XLU utilities). Telecom (T, VZ), consumer staples (WMT, MCD, COST, SBUX, TGT), food/protein (HRL, TSN, PPC), industrial (ECL), home improvement (HD, LOW). Rotation… AI Infrastructure Neutral +2.1% 30D Complete AI Infrastructure - power, cooling, electrical, construction, data/optical connectivity (NOK Nokia), manufacturing, power connectors, REITs, materials, backup, water, AI compute providers (NBIS Nebius, OSS One… Biotech Neutral +2.0% 30D Biotech - pharma innovation (LLY), lab tools (TMO), mRNA (MRNA), gene editing (CRSP, NTLA, VRTX), immunotherapy (IBRX) War Sensitivity Neutral +1.9% 30D War-sensitivity watchlist — stocks ranked by their reaction to ceasefire fake-outs (TACO trades). Tier 1 fast movers: COPX/JETS/UAE (5-9% pops). Tier 2 hidden oil-sensitive: W/RH/ATZ/AS (heavy-goods shipping costs).… Retail Neutral +1.8% 30D Retail/Consumer - ETFs (XRT retail). Home Improvement (HD, LOW), E-commerce (SHOP), Athletic/Apparel (AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CROX, ANF), Food/Beverage (SBUX, MCD, CMG, DPZ, YUM), General Retail (COST, WMT, TGT, TJX) Biotech Capital Cycle Outflow +0.8% 30D AI-bio platforms + lab-tools/consumables + CROs — biotech capital-cycle / IPO-window-levered picks-and-shovels (perspective: biotech-capital-cycle) Grid Buildout Outflow +0.8% 30D Transformer, switchgear, electrical-equipment, and engineering contractors exposed to transmission and data-center grid buildout. Livestock Disease Outflow +0.5% 30D Livestock-disease / beef supply-shock — single consolidated watchlist + alert hub for the New World Screwworm → cattle-supply thesis (first US case 2026-06-03; US herd 75-yr low; record beef). ROLES: (A) Animal-health… Consumer Outflow -0.1% 30D Consumer brands - ETFs (XLY consumer discretionary). Athleisure (AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CROX), food/beverage (SBUX, CMG, DPZ), health/wellness (HIMS), payments (PYPL, XYZ — Block Inc, ticker renamed from SQ in 2025),… Memory Outflow -0.6% 30D Memory & Storage - HBM/DRAM (MU), HDDs/SSDs (STX, WDC), thematic ETF (DRAM Roundhill Memory ETF — added 2026-05-06 after launching ~April 2026; note refresh 2026-05-10: now +101.9% off $26.14 low to $52.80 ATH, +13.4%… Semis Outflow -0.7% 30D Semiconductors - GPUs (NVDA, AMD), foundry (TSM), networking chips (AVGO, MRVL), architecture (ARM), mobile (QCOM), equipment (ASML, AMAT), packaging (AMKR), analog/power (ON), programmable-logic (LSCC - added… China Tech Outflow -0.9% 30D Chinese internet and platform leaders with broad mainland, Hong Kong, and technology ETF exposure. Food Security Outflow -1.3% 30D Food security — geopolitical energy shock cascade play. Fertilizer (NTR Nutrien, MOS Mosaic, CF Industries), farm equipment (DE Deere), grain trading (ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland, BG Bunge Global — added 2026-05-10, $24B… Energy Outflow -1.3% 30D Energy - data center power (BE, EOSE, TAC, CEG, GEV, TLN), nuclear (CEG), solar (FSLR, ENPH), utilities (NEE). Overlaps with ai-infra for power plays. Neoclouds Outflow -1.3% 30D GPU cloud and AI infrastructure providers, including power-rich data-center and former crypto-mining operators. Airlines Outflow -1.5% 30D Airlines — war-ends playbook beneficiary. Oil drop → margin expansion, leisure travel recovery. JETS ETF for broad exposure. (Removed 2026-05-04: HA absorbed by ALK via 2024 acquisition; SAVE bankrupt + delisted… Tech Outflow -1.7% 30D Big Tech WFE Test Metrology Outflow -2.1% 30D Semiconductor wafer-fab equipment, process control, metrology, test, packaging, and materials suppliers. CPU Shortage Supply Chain Outflow -2.8% 30D AI compute shortage supply chain across CPUs, high-speed connectivity, assembly and test, and semiconductor baskets. Cultural Thesis Outflow -3.0% 30D Cultural thesis watchlist — stocks driven by consumer behavior shifts, social arbitrage signals, and cultural cascades. HIMS = telehealth / GLP-1 cultural arbitrage (replaced BRBR as the protein-economy vehicle… Supply Chain Traces Outflow -3.6% 30D Supply chain trace discoveries — tickers found by our autonomous research agents across all traces. Tungsten (KMT Kennametal, CRS Carpenter; Almonty Layer-1 pure-play pending correct-ticker re-add — was wrongly tracked… Crypto Outflow -3.7% 30D Crypto: BTC, ETH, SOL, major alts (via yfinance -USD tickers), spot ETFs (IBIT, GBTC, ETHE, BITO), crypto equities (MSTR, COIN, miners), crypto ETF (BITQ) Mag7 Outflow -3.8% 30D Magnificent 7 - The seven largest US tech companies EV Clean Energy Outflow -3.8% 30D EV makers + clean energy + related ETFs. Solar tracking (NXT Nextracker), industrial energy storage/batteries (ENS EnerSys). Lithium pure-plays added 2026-05-10 from… Peptide Economy Outflow -4.2% 30D Peptide / GLP-1 economy — principals + next-gen pipeline + consumer/distribution layer. Surfaced 2026-05-05 as a coverage gap: no focused lens existed despite GLP-1s being the largest pharma run of the past 18 months.… AI Power Outflow -5.6% 30D AI Power Bottleneck — Leopold Aschenbrenner's watts-per-rack thesis. Fuel cells (BE), distributed power (PSIX, BW), nat gas (EQT, LBRT, PUMP), BTC miners pivoting to AI compute (CORZ, IREN, APLD, CIFR, HUT, BTDR, CLSK,… Watchlist Outflow -6.5% 30D Faang Outflow -6.5% 30D FAANG - Facebook (Meta), Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google 10. Key Signals
Gold & Metals — a pause, not a turn. Gold $401.48, RSI 63.3, +0.76% on the week against a +7.82% month; silver +1.70% on +12.01%; miners +0.09% on +21.58%. Every one is flat-to-mildly-positive on the week and double-digit positive on the month — the definition of consolidation. The live number is gold's death-cross cushion at −2.6%, narrowed from −3.2%, the closest it has come to flipping in this tracked window. The dollar is not doing the work here; the metals are simply not giving anything back.
Insider Buying — a clean board and three new names. For a second straight week, no name in the 59-stock insider universe closed below RSI 30, so both the buy-the-capitulation and sell-into-the-dip criteria returned zero. Three names entered the buying table for the first time in this window — CRISPR Therapeutics (+$28.1M), Intel (+$2.4M) and TSMC (+$1.5M) — each worth a second confirming filing before it counts. Amazon (−$9.6B), Nvidia (−$3.3B) and Apple (−$420.8M) all reappeared after a one-week data gap, confirming that absence was a fetch failure and not a change in behavior.
Crypto — risk appetite rolled over. Bitcoin's RSI fell from 55.3 to 41.7 with price down to $62,819.85 and the month flipping to −2.92%; three of the four spot proxies were downgraded back to collapse, undoing last week's structural upgrade. Miners are worse — Marathon at RSI 34.4 on a −25.14% month is the deepest monthly print in the whole crypto book. Coinbase reversed its post-crash bounce to −11.21% on the month. If crypto is the risk-appetite gauge, it disagreed with equities all week.
Regime Transitions — repairs outnumber breaks, barely. The code-diffed feed logged 37 real state changes on Friday's bar against Thursday's, led by uptrend → pullback (7), collapse → pullback (6) and pullback → uptrend (6); the board now stands at 272 uptrends, 364 pullbacks, 118 downtrends and 100 collapses. Amkor and Celestica both cleared collapse, cross-confirming three separate screens. Home Depot's pullback → downtrend confirms the defensives book's steepest reversal. Roblox is the outlier worth resolving: its RSI improved 33.8 → 38.7 while the classifier moved it the opposite way, downtrend → collapse, on the same bar. Dispersion is not gradeable this cycle — the feed's rolling window holds only five names, which is a missing instrument, not a calm reading.
The Melt-Up Tell. The buffered S&P fund closed at RSI 70.3, 0.05% from its 52-week high, on a +1.68% month. A product engineered to go nowhere printing an overbought reading at an all-time high is the signature of a low-volatility grind, not a rally — and it lines up exactly with VIX 14.25, orderly credit and a +0.41% index week. It is the most honest description of this tape on the board.
Recorded signals · 42
11. The Wild & Whacky
- Monster Beverage did not crash. The chart halved because the company began trading split-adjusted August 11 on a 2-for-1 (declared as a 100% stock dividend, per its own current report). Re-based, the read is boring: $46.82, RSI 48.5, −4.04% on the month, golden cross intact — and the regime feed upgraded it downtrend → uptrend on the same bar.
- RSI 90.6 on a month that went nowhere. Crinetics posted the highest RSI in the corpus while gaining +0.95% over thirty days and +0.74% over the week. That is a stock grinding upward in tiny consistent increments 0.32% below its high — persistence, not thrust, and a reminder that an RSI extreme describes consistency, not magnitude.
- A 52-week high set on the day of the move. Unusual Machines' $34.93 intraday high was printed in the same +25.04% session that closed at $34.06 — there was no prior high to break out through. The only live retail artifact is a 60-point message-board gain screenshot calling it a "trump trade."
- Two of the optical book's strongest reads traded zero shares. One name's RSI jumped from 40.3 to 71.6 — the highest in the book — and another sat at the book's lowest, 41.3, both on no volume at all. A price that nobody transacted at is a quote, not a market.
- Price and structure disagreed on Roblox. RSI improved from 33.8 to 38.7 while the regime classifier downgraded it from downtrend to collapse the same day, with the month at −33.01%. One of the two is wrong and the tape hasn't said which.
- GPU rent becomes a commodity on October 5. CME Group announced August 11 that it and Silicon Data will list futures on the hourly rental cost of Nvidia H100 and B200 chips — NYMEX-listed, cash-settled against Silicon Data's rental indexes, one contract per month of rental expense, pending regulatory review. If they get liquidity, AI compute gets a public reference price.
- Anthropic's revenue reportedly went up 14-fold. Bloomberg reported August 14 that second-quarter revenue jumped at least 14-fold year over year to more than $11.5 billion with positive adjusted operating income, ahead of investor meetings for a potential listing. Attributed to Bloomberg's reporting, no primary company document — but if it holds, it reprices what the AI mega-IPO wave is actually funded by.
- The most oversold thing on the board is a bet against semiconductors. The inverse-leveraged semiconductor fund at RSI 26.9 is the lowest reading in a 68-name universe. That is not a discount; it is the tape saying the thing it shorts went up.
12. Paper Trade Report Card
Headline: nine books, zero stop-losses, and all the trading happened on the newest ledgers. The core books did nothing and got paid anyway.
| Strategy | Total Value | Return | Highlight |
|---|---|---|---|
| yolo | $111,988.98 | +11.99% | Retook the top on zero trades — the book gained $612.29 doing nothing. |
| claude-trader | $110,235.20 | +10.24% | Three profit-target exits for +$2,348.71 realized; the near-target tier is now empty. |
| bench-signals | $55,616.24 | +4.93% (on $53,004.43 invested) | Zero trades; the book simply repriced up from +4.68%. |
| degen | $102,079.20 | +2.08% | Two 10-day leveraged time stops today; 79.8% cash, undefeated at 3W/0L. |
| dip-buyer | $100,000.00 | 0.00% | Stood up August 12; no trades yet. |
| momentum-trader | $100,000.00 | 0.00% | Stood up August 12; no trades yet. |
| short-seller | $100,000.00 | 0.00% | Funded, never traded. |
| conviction | $99,634.90 | −0.37% | Banked AbCellera at +21.8% (+$1,062.27); still −$1,608.06 realized lifetime. |
| swing-kid | $99,619.66 | −0.38% | First new position since July — Enterprise Products at $38.90, filled at the close. |
Friday's session: three exits and one entry, +$2,493.93 realized, six of nine books stood down. Week: +$5,994.65 realized against zero realized losses and zero stops fired — the first such week in the recent tracked window.
Danger zones. The deepest open loss on the desk is Vistra at −9.33% (RSI 48.0, strong-down). The signals tracker's worst position deteriorated through −10% (Apple −10.04%), still five points from its stop. Two positions are outright overbought with no mechanical trim above them — Amgen at RSI 70.3 and Microsoft at RSI 70.9, both nowhere near the +30% and +20% targets that would sell them.
The lesson this week. Two rules cut winners for being slow rather than wrong: leveraged time stops closed positions at +2.21% and +4.95%, and a flat +20% conviction target sold AbCellera — which then printed RSI 84.1 and +146.8% above its 200-day. Time stops and flat targets are decay insurance, and this week the premium was visible. Separately, one book churned a leveraged index fund twice in five sessions and re-entered at a higher price than it exited, which is the shape a trend-death rule takes when the trend doesn't actually die.
13. What I'd Tell a Friend
There is nothing to buy on discount right now. Zero names under RSI 30 outside leveraged products, two weeks running, and 55 names on the overbought list. That is the whole message. Everything below is a condition, not a purchase — a level plus a confirmation, and if the level doesn't come, nothing happens.
- $AOSL at $30.77 — inside its $30.00–34.50 support band. RSI 43.0, pullback regime, and it got here on a −14.72% week. The only one of three fresh support-zone flags trading squarely inside its band. Interest begins on a hold with a higher low, not on the touch.
- $VICR at $234.74 — inside $215–245. RSI 50.9, +6.12% on the week against a −9.78% month. Same discipline: the zone needs to hold, not just be visited.
- $ARM at $279.44 — at the top edge of $255–280. RSI 50.9, 30-day return positive for the first time this stretch (+0.88%), still death-crossed. The entry is the lower half of the band; this print is the wrong end.
- $WMT at $115.27 — 1.4% below a 200-day reclaim at $116.91. RSI 55.7, regime upgraded downtrend → pullback this week. The longest-standing open alert on the board and the closest it has been; the trigger is a reclaim that holds, not a poke through.
- $AVAV at $192.81 — do not chase; the zone is $163–180. RSI 65.6, death cross intact, +7.1% above the top of its own zone with a volume wall at $199.98 overhead. The trade is a retest of the $176.42 shelf or the 20/50-day cluster, stop $158.
What to do today: nothing, on purpose. The one thing to watch next week is whether energy's +7.67% week holds. It is the only broadly confirmed structural move on the board, and if it hands the gains straight back, the rotation that has been carrying a flat index loses its engine — and there is no oversold cohort underneath to rotate into.
14. Active Perspectives
| Perspective | Status | Key Update |
|---|---|---|
| AI Power Bottleneck | active | Demand case intact, cohort sold off anyway; site permitting joins the named risks after a second metro moratorium push. |
| AI Power Delivery | active | Delivery layer took the damage — Alpha & Omega −14.72% on the week; Applied Materials' print is the open gate. |
| Memory Supercycle | active | Whole cohort moved as one; Sandisk +35.38% with a filed quarter and a $14B buyback. Crowding now evidenced, not theoretical. |
| Nuclear Fuel Cycle | active | Quiet week upstream; Centrus's +21.47% month sits against a −58.68% drawdown. |
| AI Capex Digestion | active | Rotation into value and breadth kept running; read stays rotation, not reckoning. |
| Physical AI / Robotics | active | Arms-dealer tier leads (Ouster +12.24%, Teradyne +22.41% month); humanoid names still watch-only. |
| The Midterm Window | active | No new trigger; fear disarmed at VIX 14.25, consumer-cyclical handoff still missing. |
| Drone Defense | active (new) | Opened this week on the drone tape; offense tier splits between a rebuilding prime and a dilution-funded components name. |
| Gulf Infrastructure Strike | monitoring | Quiet week; depletion-window calendar closes regardless. |
| Risk-On Tech Rotation | monitoring | Mega-cap cohort still refuses to move as a bloc; CrowdStrike's tape and margin converged. |
| The Gold Anomaly | monitoring | Death-cross cushion narrowed to −2.6%, the closest to flipping in this window. |
| AI Optical Supercycle | monitoring | InP capacity constraint got its most concrete corroboration yet; still no primary filing. |
| US Energy Dominance | monitoring | Cleanest confirmation on the board; copper the one deteriorating sub-leg. |
| SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event | monitoring | Scheduled retrospective date passed with no lifecycle decision — flagged, unresolved. |
| Nearline HDD Storage | monitoring | Flagged as an emerging lane; drive-maker call content still unfilled. |
| Livestock Disease | monitoring | Wendy's +12.35% on volume, cause unverified — do not infer a substitution read. |
| Biotech Capital Cycle | monitoring | AbCellera at RSI 84.1 after a +64.21% week; tools tier participating. |
| CPU Shortage Supply Chain | monitoring | Amkor cleared collapse; the substrate anchor led on zero volume. |
| China Structural Discount | monitoring | Both baskets shed ~18 RSI points with no driver — isolation confirmed, re-rate absent. |
| Quantum Computing | monitoring | Basket whipsawed again; no pure-play earned the rotate-in trigger. |
| AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime | monitoring | Bloomberg-reported Anthropic revenue jump is the week's only relevant item; no primary document. |
| Trump Policy Ticker Catalysts | monitoring | No qualifying direct-post catalyst; a message-board "trump trade" label is not a source. |
15. Scan Summary
Screens completed (33): Market Pulse · AI Sector · AI Infrastructure · Biotech · NVIDIA Ecosystem · Defensives · Healthcare · Consumer · Retail · Cloud ETFs · Cybersecurity · EV & Clean Energy · ETF Universe · Insider Activity · Bargain Bin · Tech Insider Buys · Crypto · Macro & Commodities · Defense Contractors · Geopolitical Risk · Optical Supply Chain · Drone & Defense · Supply-Chain Traces · Semiconductor Equipment · Food Security · Cultural Signals · Airlines · Chemicals · Travel & Leisure · Momentum Board · Turnaround Watch · Momentum ETF Screen · Lazarus Watch.
Momentum Discovery and Momentum Rotation Discovery were not regenerated — both ran August 13, inside their seven-day window.
Counts: 33 dated screens · 11 candidate roundups · 49 tracked company profiles refreshed · 2 new deep dives (AeroVironment, Unusual Machines) · 22 active perspectives (one opened this week) · 482 names covered across 82 watchlists on the momentum board · 63 turnaround-watch entrants · 37 regime transitions on Friday's bar.
Data basis: all prices, RSI, moving-average distances and trailing returns are the Friday, August 14, 2026 settled close. Event and cause claims are sourced to filings, dated news reports, or explicitly marked unknown. Previous edition: the August 13 market brief.
Sources
- Tape truth: the desk's watchlist summaries at the Friday, August 14, 2026 settled close; regime and rotation state from the same build.
- Screens: the 33 August 14 screens named above. Desk state: the August 14 status report and actions digest.
- Deep dives: the August 14 AeroVironment and Unusual Machines deep dives. Company profiles: 49 August 14 refreshes. Candidate roundups: 11.
- Perspectives: the 22 active and monitoring perspective logs, August 14 entries, including the newly opened Drone Defense perspective.
- Filings and primary sources: Sandisk fiscal Q4 FY2026 results and $14B repurchase authorization (SEC EDGAR); Sandisk BiCS10 sampling (company IR); Strait of Hormuz disruption (UN News, 2026-08-04); July payrolls (Forbes, 2026-08-07); CME/Silicon Data compute futures (CME Group press release, 2026-08-11); Anthropic Q2 revenue (Bloomberg, 2026-08-14).
- Community temperature (pointers, not facts): the August 14 message-board and chat captures named in the body.
Today's Actions · 44 MSTR $93.04 · APP $315.44 · OKLO $44.38
exit · 3
entry · 41
XLE breaking out 1.8% off its 52-week high after a +7.7% week
MPC breaking out 1.3% off its 52-week high after a +19.2% week — a +40% three-month run, not a one-week pop trend-hold
MDB breaking out 2.7% off its 52-week high after a +15.4% week — a +47% three-month run, not a one-week pop · overbought stretch
GLD coming into play — 21.2% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+0.8% this week)
NFLXE coming into play — 38.3% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+5.4% this week)
CRM coming into play — 26.7% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+1.8% this week)
ABCL $8.45 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, advisory); trigger at $8.45 · overbought stretch trend-hold
LEU $177 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, tape); trigger at $177 trend-hold
AOSL $30.00–34.50 in its $30.00–34.50 buy zone
BESIY $260–280 in its $260–280 buy zone
CME $280 in its $280 buy zone
IBM $231.80–244.00 in its $231.80–244.00 buy zone
LULU $135 in its $135 buy zone
URA $52 in its $52 buy zone
VICRE $215–245 in its $215–245 buy zone
AMD $514.39 basing after run — new this week
CRWD $216.95 basing after run — new this week
AAPL no setup today — drifting down, -2.3% this week, 11.1% off its 52-week high
AMZN no setup today — still in trend, -4.3% this week, 8.6% off its 52-week high
ARGX no setup today — drifting down, -1.6% this week, 10.7% off its 52-week high
ARM no setup today — drifting down, -1.1% this week, 38.3% off its 52-week high trend-hold
ARQQ no setup today — moving sideways, +6.4% this week, 60.7% off its 52-week high
GOOGL no setup today — drifting down, -2.4% this week, 15.3% off its 52-week high
HQ no setup today — moving sideways, +20.2% this week, 62.2% off its 52-week high
ILMN no setup today — still in trend, +1.6% this week, 7.8% off its 52-week high
INFQ no setup today — moving sideways, +8.0% this week, 39.6% off its 52-week high
IONQ no setup today — still in trend, +4.1% this week, 45.3% off its 52-week high
LAES no setup today — drifting up, +17.1% this week, 65.4% off its 52-week high
MSFT no setup today — moving sideways, -0.9% this week, 10.0% off its 52-week high trend-hold
MU no setup today — still in trend, +10.7% this week, 22.6% off its 52-week high
NET no setup today — still in trend, +5.2% this week, 5.0% off its 52-week high
NTR no setup today — moving sideways, +5.9% this week, 18.7% off its 52-week high
NVDA no setup today — still in trend, +0.5% this week, 4.7% off its 52-week high trend-hold
OUST no setup today — still in trend, +12.2% this week, 23.6% off its 52-week high
PL no setup today — moving sideways, +3.2% this week, 52.3% off its 52-week high trend-hold
QBTS no setup today — drifting up, +2.0% this week, 54.7% off its 52-week high
QUBT no setup today — under pressure, -1.9% this week, 65.1% off its 52-week high
RGTI no setup today — drifting up, +4.9% this week, 67.6% off its 52-week high
SNDK no setup today — drifting down, +35.4% this week, 30.3% off its 52-week high
TSLA no setup today — under pressure, +4.2% this week, 31.4% off its 52-week high
XNDU no setup today — moving sideways, +4.8% this week, 72.8% off its 52-week high
The desk's frozen record The machine-built sections as this issue recorded them — the tape, calls, and wires that were true on this date (desk plumbing and file-path lines removed for reading).
Regime State
- State counts: collapse: 100, pullback: 364, uptrend: 272, downtrend: 118.
- Latest transition batch: 2026-08-14 vs 2026-08-13; 32 confirmed state-to-state flips, 0 entries, 0 exits.
- Confirmed flips: $AAUC collapse -> pullback; $ALMS uptrend -> pullback; $AMKR collapse -> pullback; $BWIN pullback -> uptrend; $CLS collapse -> pullback; $CLSK pullback -> downtrend.
Cross-sector Rotation
- Money rotating INTO Government Compute (RS +26.8, 17% strong-up), Web Cloud (RS +17.8, 78% strong-up), Cloud SAAS (RS +15.3, 50% strong-up) — OUT OF Faang (RS -9.4), Watchlist (RS -9.4), AI Power (RS -8.4). Benchmark SPY +2.9% 30d. ⚡ EMERGING (turning up before the trailing board): Humanoid Robotics (accel +7.2, 50% up), Canadian OG (accel +4.2, 86% up), Nearline Storage (accel +3.5, 57% up). ◔ EARLY TURN (accelerating, breadth unconfirmed — probe, not a call): Memory (accel +17.0, 17% up, led by SNDK/SKHY/STX), WFE Test Metrology (accel +6.9, 43% up, led by FORM/TER/KLIC), Supply Chain Traces (accel +6.6, 38% up, led by MP/ATEYY/ELMT), Neoclouds (accel +5.7, 20% up, led by NBIS/CRWV/GLXY), Energy (accel +4.8, 42% up, led by XOP/XLE/GEV). Fading leaders: Government Compute (accel -5.4), Trace Glp1 Manufacturing (accel -3.3), Copper (accel -5.6).
- ⚡ Front-run (emerging, turning up before the trailing board): Humanoid Robotics (accel +7.2, 50% up); Canadian OG (accel +4.2, 86% up); Nearline Storage (accel +3.5, 57% up).
Volatility Gate
- VIX 14.25 (CALM) · 1d -2.6%. 😴 VIX CALM — 14.25 (<16). Complacent; no fear discount available.
- No fire-sale trigger (rule: >=30% one-day spike is the trigger; the level alone is context).
- Credit tape (7d): HYG +0.1% · LQD -0.4% · IEF -0.1% — the flush-vs-break discriminator: orderly credit means the selling is positioning, not a credit event.
The Prints
- $JD — Reported EPS $6.29 versus analyst consensus of $5.61 (+12.0%).
- $LUNR — Reported EPS $-0.16 versus analyst consensus of $-0.07 (-129.0%).
- $MSGS — Reported EPS $1.16 versus analyst consensus of $0.63 (+84.1%).
Upcoming Prints (next 72h)
Tripwires
- Tripwires: no new trips since the 2026-08-15 duty pass.
Desk Calls
| Ticker | Stance | Entry | Review-by | 30d vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $AVAV | watch | a pullback that bases in the $163-$180 band — the reclaimed 20-day ($165.70), 50-day… | 2026-09-15 | n/a |
| $AXON | watch | a pullback that holds the $576.14 shelf or the 20-day ($556.43) | 2026-09-30 | n/a |
| $ITA | pass | no entry 2.69% off a 52-week high with RSI 64.4; the wrapper prices the primes, not… | 2026-09-30 | n/a |
| $KTOS | pass | no entry while price sits 12.3% below the 200-day ($73.65) with a death cross intact… | 2026-09-30 | n/a |
| $RCAT | pass | no entry after a +20.85% week that stalled at the anchored VWAP from the low… | 2026-09-30 | n/a |
| $UMAC | watch | a pullback that bases in $21-$24, where the value-area high ($21.09), 50-day… | 2026-10-09 | n/a |
| $DUST | pass | n/a — the inverse side of the same instrument problem | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $GDX | watch | don't chase RSI 70.3 after a +21.31% week — a first pullback that holds the 200-day… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $GLD | watch | a close above the 200-day ($411.70) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the… | 2026-09-04 | pending |
| $MU | watch | reclaims and holds the 20-day ($888.26) with RSI back above 50 | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $NUGT | pass | n/a — leveraged miner exposure compounds the whipsaw that already makes miners the… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $SIL | watch | above its 200-day by 2.4% but RSI 67.1 after +20.0% — same pullback discipline as… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $SIMO | watch | price back above the 20-day ($264.25) with the 30-day loss narrowing | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $SLV | watch | the laggard of the complex at 9.8% below its 200-day ($63.76) — a reclaim of that… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $SNDK | pass | no entry while price sits 13.0% below the 20-day ($1,393.06) and 28.2% below the… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $STX | watch | holds the 20-day ($834.21) and turns RSI back above 50 | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $UUP | watch | n/a — the dollar at RSI 39.5 is the tailwind, not the trade | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $WDC | watch | not before the Aug 5 call's allocation and gross-margin language is public and read;… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $GLD | watch | a close above the 200-day ($411.72) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the… | 2026-09-04 | pending |
| $CVX | watch | strongest RSI in the upstream cohort (67.2) — hold above the 20-day (~$185.34) to… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $GLD | watch | this is a signal to watch, not a trade — a reclaim of the 20-day (~$373.15) would be… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $HAL | avoid | not a trend-hold candidate yet — wait for a base and a reclaim of the 50-day… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $PSX | watch | RSI is a hair under overbought (69.7) — wait for a pullback to the 20-day (~$200.76)… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $USO | watch | the -5.5% weekly pullback holds above the 20-day (~$121.96) — a normal pullback… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $VLO | watch | same setup as PSX — a pullback to the 20-day (~$295.63); note this row is one… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $CEG | watch | reclaim the 20-day (~$256) with hyperscaler spending language intact on the Jul… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | pending |
| $ELAN | watch (invalidation?) | a volume-confirmed (at least average volume) close through the 52-week high… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | pending |
| $GEV | watch | held the AI unwind at −5%; reclaim the 20-day (~$1,085) and print a higher low | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | pending |
| $LEU | watch | first higher low after a clean Jul 29–30 capex read — the −18% month is a beta… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | pending |
| $CLMT | pass | RSI 83 on 2.7x volume, +165% in a year — parabolic-chaser material, not trend-hold;… | 2026-09-04 | pending |
| $DK | pass | reopen if it builds a multi-week base above the 20-day ($52.58) and resumes — a… | 2026-09-04 | pending |
| $MPC | watch | the lane's quality large-cap; interest begins on the first pullback that HOLDS the… | 2026-08-21 | pending |
| $MU | watch (in zone) | Friday printed a reversal bar (low $804, closed $848.95); a close above that bar's… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | pending |
| $NVDA | watch (in zone) | the general never broke (−3.7% in 30 days vs the ETF's −15.7%); a reclaim of its… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | pending |
| $PANW | watch | the lane's strongest structure (-2.7% from its 52-week high, +83% on the year);… | 2026-09-04 | pending |
| $PL | watch (invalidation?) | untouchable while the knife falls (RSI 30, −14% on the week); interest begins when… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $PSX | watch | the diversified laggard of the three (+70% on the year, midstream/chem mix dilutes… | 2026-08-21 | pending |
| $S | watch | the laggard catching up (+30% in 30 days, still only +9% on the year and -8.6% from… | 2026-09-10 | pending |
| $SMH | watch (invalidation?) | the complex switch: first close back above the 50-day ($597.33) after a higher low,… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | pending |
| $STX | watch (in zone) | the complex's only accumulation-shaped bar: +5.7% on 1.35× volume, closed near the… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | pending |
| $VLO | watch | best 12-month tape of the pure refiners (+117%); same frame — first 20-day hold… | 2026-08-21 | pending |
| $ARM | watch (in zone) | reclaim the pre-registered $270 line and hold it — the trigger the thesis flag broke… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | pending |
| $CCJ | watch | washed out at RSI 30 — wait for the $84 shelf to hold and a first higher low; the… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $CEG | watch (in zone) | the merchant bellwether needs a turn signature, not a dip-buy — a base under the… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $DUK | watch (invalidation?) | the one working expression — regulated rate-base growth from the same demand; a… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $LEU | watch (in zone) | only after a full-quarter base — the enrichment monopoly story is intact but the… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $MU | watch | gated on the prints, not the chart — a storage/memory print (STX Jul 28, WDC Jul 29,… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | pending |
| $NVDA | watch | the R1 playbook leg — hold the 20-day retest (~$202) through the July 28–29 storage… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | pending |
| $TLN | watch (invalidation?) | the strongest tape of the merchants — hold the $360 shelf and the 200-day (~$371),… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $VST | watch (invalidation?) | reclaim the 200-day (~$166) and hold it — first sign the derate is done | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $ABCL | watch (in zone) | the pop already happened (Feb low $2.78 to a $8.44 high) — this is the first flag;… | 2026-08-31 | +25.3% |
| $CBRS | watch (in zone) | a close above the post-flush bounce high ($221.30) confirms the higher low and… | 2026-08-31 | +13.0% |
| $META | watch (invalidation?) | second reclaim attempt off a higher low — buy interest is a close above ~$665,… | 2026-08-31 | -8.6% |
| $MSFT | watch (in zone) | no turn signature yet — interest begins at the 200-day reclaim (~$442) after a base;… | 2026-10-01 | +28.8% |
| $NTLA | watch (invalidation?) | golden cross, +31% month, and a fresh impulse into $18.48 on July 2 — buy interest… | 2026-08-31 | -25.0% |
| $ORCL | pass | reopen when the knife stops: the February low ($136) holds on this retest AND a +7%… | 2026-10-01 | +2.3% |
| $AXTI | pass | reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue… | 2026-10-01 | +43.6% |
| $CIFR | pass | reopen only on revenue inflecting up AND visible de-leveraging of the $4.4B debt stack | 2026-10-01 | -25.1% |
| $CORZ | pass | reopen on a recapitalization that restores positive equity with the CoreWeave… | 2026-10-01 | -14.3% |
| $CRDO | buy (in zone) | elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the… | 2026-09-15 | -7.1% |
| $CRWV | pass | reopen only on a financing regime change — interest expense stabilizing while… | 2026-10-01 | -3.0% |
| $EQT | watch | the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two… | 2026-10-01 | -2.4% |
| $HUT | pass | reopen on a financed capacity deal that closes the gap between $160M of cash and… | 2026-10-01 | -20.3% |
| $KGS | buy (invalidation?) | the sleeper — record Q1, raised full-year guidance to include the Distributed Power… | 2026-08-15 | -18.0% |
| $MXL | watch (in zone) | wire-flagged inflection but already a 4.5x over the year and −16% this week on no… | 2026-08-15 | -16.6% |
| $NBIS | buy (in zone) | pullback within an intact uptrend — buy the 50-day reclaim at ~$217, which says the… | 2026-08-31 | -16.9% |
| $OKTA | pass | the rotation's confirming leader — but RSI 78 and 3% off its high is chasing; reopen… | 2026-09-15 | -2.7% |
| $TER | buy (in zone) | the −21% week has no company event behind it — Q1 revenue rose 87% with a 21% EPS… | 2026-08-15 | +4.2% |
| $WDAY | watch | the earnings proof-point of the rotation (beat + raised subscription guide) but… | 2026-09-15 | +26.6% |
| $WULF | watch (invalidation?) | the $2.63B war chest has to start converting into hosting revenue on the P&L — watch… | 2026-08-15 | -28.9% |
| $SKHY | watch (in zone) | first clean post-debut base — not the open (debut ~2026-07-10) | 2026-09-01 | n/a |
| $ZM | watch (in zone) | 2 consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue; base over $92 | 2026-09-01 | +16.0% |
| $MU | buy | own the up-cycle with cycle sizing — record DRAM/HBM pricing power, HBM booked… | 2026-09-01 | -12.0% |
| $SNDK | watch | only on evidence the +69% NAND operating margin is a baseline, not the peak — two… | 2026-09-01 | -20.8% |
| $STX | buy | own the cleanest un-hyped inflection — nearline-HDD margins compounding 23%→32% over… | 2026-09-01 | -5.3% |
| $WDC | buy | same nearline thesis as STX — margins 10%→36% on the same AI storage driver, no hype… | 2026-09-01 | -7.7% |
A desk call is an authored stance from a published report; entry and invalidation conditions are human-read, and the full ledger lives at /calls.
30d vs SPY is the raw name-vs-SPY move since the call — for trim/sell calls a NEGATIVE number means the call worked (the name fell after it).
From the Feeds
Curated picks from the last 7 days of the X / Reddit / Discord / web sweep — items the desk read and kept, not the raw capture firehose. Source: -pick- (type: curated-find).
webBloomberg — Chicago joins the data-center moratorium push · link- Chicago’s mayor is seeking a temporary data-center moratorium and new development rules. This is a second live state/local siting constraint after New York: useful evidence that power and permitting scarcity can raise the value of existing capacity while slowing greenfield delivery.
webVikram Sekar — Viks Newsletter — where copper and optics still contradict each other · link- A fresh physics-down field read from OCP APAC on where rack connectivity remains copper and where bandwidth, reach, and power force optics. It is useful for testing the optical-supercycle boundary conditions instead of assuming every link converts at once.
𝕏Photon Capital — COHR’s AI mix and InP capacity ramp $COHR · link- A useful, explicitly secondary synthesis of Coherent’s quarter: AI infrastructure is becoming the revenue center while internal InP output remains the upstream capacity question. Read it as a map back to the company call, not as primary authority; it directly informs the optical-supercycle constraint watch.
web— The photonics desk's COHR scorecard: $2.05B at the top of guide $COHR $CIEN $NOK $LITE · [link](@crux_capital_ on X)- Coherent printed Q4 revenue of $2.05B, up 34% year over year and at the very top of its own guide, per @crux_capital_'s same-day read — and the account graded the print against the pre-earnings checklist it published hours before (6-inch InP ramp, gross-margin path toward 42%, the 1.6T transceiver ramp, the $4B+ OCS o…
𝕏— The Kobeissi Letter — memory is now the tape: NVDA, MU and SNDK are three of the four most-traded US stocks $NVDA $MU $TSLA $SNDK · link- One datapoint that shows how far the memory trade has come: Micron alone now turns over nearly as much notional as Nvidia, and SanDisk out-trades almost everything else on the tape. Crowding is the flip side — the lane's #1 risk has always been that everyone gets in.
𝕏— SemiAnalysis — TileRT compiles the whole model into one persistent GPU kernel, claiming 1.9x decode interactivity on the same Blackwell chips $NVDA · link- Software squeezing 2x more interactive inference out of the same NVIDIA silicon cuts at the core pitch of the dedicated inference-ASIC vendors (Groq, Cerebras, SambaNova) — and raises effective utilization per deployed GPU, which feeds the power-per-rack math the AI-power lane tracks.
Filings
- NEW: $INFQ 4 filed 2026-08-14 (period 2026-08-04)
- NEW: $LAES 6-K filed 2026-08-14 (period 2026-08-14)
- NEW: $LAES 6-K filed 2026-08-14 (period 2026-08-14)
- NEW: $AOSL 4 filed 2026-08-14 (period 2026-08-13)
- NEW: $BE 4 filed 2026-08-14 (period 2026-08-13)
- NEW: $IBM 8-K filed 2026-08-14 (period 2026-08-10)
- NEW: $POWI 8-K filed 2026-08-14 (period 2026-08-11)
- NEW: $SKHY 6-K filed 2026-08-14 (period 2026-08-14)
- NEW: $TEAM 10-K filed 2026-08-14 (period 2026-06-30)
- NEW: $AAPL 4 filed 2026-08-13 (period 2026-08-11)
- NEW: $INTU 4 filed 2026-08-13 (period 2026-08-11)
- NEW: $INTU 4 filed 2026-08-13 (period 2026-08-11)
- …and 2 more in the source JSON.
- Last 14 days: $INFQ 4 (2026-08-14); $LAES 6-K (2026-08-14); $LAES 6-K (2026-08-14); $AOSL 4 (2026-08-14); $BE 4 (2026-08-14); $IBM 8-K (2026-08-14); $POWI 8-K (2026-08-14); $SKHY 6-K (2026-08-14); ….
Breadth And Movers
Price truth: *; primary summary date 2026-08-14. Row dates: 2026-08-14: 1869, 2026-08-13: 13.
- Summary coverage: 1869/1882 rows at 2026-08-14; 1079 unique symbols after de-duplication.
- Unique-symbol breadth: 570 up, 491 down, 18 flat; median 1D change +0.1%.
- Market-pulse breadth: 17 up, 25 down, 0 flat; median 1D change -0.1% from market-pulse.
Top gainers by 1D change (filtered to price >= $1, dollar volume >= $50M, finite RSI):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $UMAC | +25.0% | +30.4% | +83.9% | 72.3 | Overbought | $34.06 | drone-defense |
| $LPTH | +15.6% | +16.2% | +32.8% | 63.8 | strong-up | $15.17 | optical-supply-chain |
| $AAOI | +15.5% | +10.8% | +37.8% | 60.9 | strong-up | $150.28 | monster-discoveries |
| $INDI | +13.8% | +16.6% | +17.2% | 65.1 | Overbought | $4.71 | robotics |
| $RDDT | +12.6% | +10.1% | -10.1% | 55.3 | up | $178.09 | watching |
Top laggards by 1D change (same filter):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $MSTX | -8.8% | -14.3% | -13.7% | 39.0 | strong-down | $7.82 | etf-monster-universe |
| $MSTU | -8.5% | -14.0% | -13.1% | 38.9 | strong-down | $1.72 | etf-monster-universe |
| $XE | -7.7% | -7.4% | +39.3% | 57.2 | neutral | $20.98 | nuclear-fuel-cycle |
| $ASAN | -7.4% | -1.3% | +21.2% | 59.3 | up | $9.14 | insider-universe |
| $HUBS | -6.8% | +6.5% | +4.1% | 51.5 | weak-up | $224.14 | cloud-saas |
Targets In Zone
| Target | Anchor date | Tickers | Mechanical status | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOSL entry-zone — $30.00-$34.50 | 2026-08-14 | $AOSL | IN ZONE — $30.77 inside $30–$34.50, trend weak-down | $30.00-$34.50 |
| AVAV profit-target — $276.00 | 2026-08-14 | $AVAV | APPROACHING — $192.81 is 30.1% below the $276 target, trend weak-up | $276.00 |
| AVAV stop-loss — $158.00 | 2026-08-14 | $AVAV | HOLDING — $192.81 is 22.0% above the $158 stop | $158.00 |
| UMAC profit-target — $45.00 | 2026-08-14 | $UMAC | APPROACHING — $34.06 is 24.3% below the $45 target, trend strong-up | $45.00 |
| UMAC stop-loss — $18.50 | 2026-08-14 | $UMAC | HOLDING — $34.06 is 84.1% above the $18.50 stop | $18.50 |
| GDX profit-target — $115.00 | 2026-08-08 | $GDX | APPROACHING — $89.97 is 21.8% below the $115 target, trend up | $115.00 |
| GDX stop-loss — $85.00 | 2026-08-08 | $GDX | HOLDING — $89.97 is 5.8% above the $85 stop | $85.00 |
| NVTS entry-zone — $8-$10 | 2026-07-31 | $NVTS | APPROACHING — $14.45 is 44.5% above $8–$10; waiting for the pullback | $8-$10 |
Convergence Leaders
- Stocks in projection: 747;
convergentCount10;divergentCount24.