NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
Data as-of 2026-08-14 close — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar this scan.
AVGO posted the cut's sharpest reversal: RSI 64.6 → 46.5 (-18.1 points) on a -8.13% week, while its regime classifier held at "pullback" — unchanged despite the drop. NVDA's regime moved the other way on almost no RSI change at all: RSI barely slipped (64.5 → 62.8, -1.7), but its classifier downgraded from the cut's lone confirmed "uptrend" last scan to "basing." QCOM's regime fell further, to "collapse," on a nearly flat RSI read (47.6 → 47.4) — a second regime move with no matching price signal. GEV (45.9 → 56.4, +10.5, the cut's biggest gain) and ASML (51.9 → 59.8, +7.9) both upgraded to "uptrend," now the only two names in the cut carrying that tag.
Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names. Latest bar 2026-08-14 for every name in this cut. Note: AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P (ai-infra.json) and EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC (energy.json) excluded as off-thesis for this ecosystem cut, same methodology as last scan. Prior scan: 2026-08-08-nvda-ecosystem.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A quiet-looking RSI range (44.7-63.2, no name oversold or overbought) hides real churn underneath — AVGO cratered, NVDA and QCOM both lost their regime tags, while GEV and ASML gained theirs |
| Leaders | CEG (RSI 63.2, cut's highest print, regime still "downtrend"); NVDA (62.8, still the highest thesis-intact name despite the downgrade); GEV (56.4, cut's biggest gain, newly "uptrend") |
| Laggards | AVGO (46.5, -18.1-point RSI drop, the cut's sharpest reversal); ON (44.7, weakest print in the cut, unchanged tier); QCOM (47.4, regime downgraded to "collapse" on a flat RSI read) |
| Key insight | NVDA lost the cut's only confirmed "uptrend" tag this scan — downgraded to "basing" — even though its RSI barely moved; the group's headline name and its regime read are no longer in agreement |
What's Going On
AVGO was the session's biggest mover, and not in a good way. RSI fell from 64.6 to 46.5 (-18.1 points, the largest single-name swing in the cut) on -8.13% over the week and -5.94% in a single day (change7d, change1d per semis.json). Its regime classifier held at "pullback," the same tag it carried into this scan — no downgrade despite the size of the drop, and its thesis flag stays marked "intact."
NVDA moved the opposite direction on the surface but told a similar story underneath. RSI eased only slightly, 64.5 to 62.8 (-1.7 points, essentially flat on +0.54% over the week), yet its regime classifier downgraded from "uptrend" — the only confirmed uptrend tag in last scan's cut — to "basing." QCOM's regime slipped further, from "pullback" to "collapse," on a nearly unchanged RSI (47.6 → 47.4, -0.2). Neither downgrade is explained by a large RSI or price move; both look like the regime classifier catching up to something the RSI hasn't shown yet.
GEV posted the cut's largest RSI gain: 45.9 to 56.4 (+10.5 points) on +7.36% over the week, and its regime upgraded from "pullback" to "uptrend." ASML posted a comparable move, 51.9 to 59.8 (+7.9 points) on +5.92% over the week, also upgrading to "uptrend." With NVDA's downgrade, GEV and ASML are now the only two names in the 20-ticker cut carrying a confirmed "uptrend" regime.
CEG and TLN remain the cut's two "downtrend"-tagged names, unchanged from last scan, even though both posted solid RSI gains this scan — CEG 54.3 → 63.2 (+8.9, now the cut's highest print) and TLN 46.2 → 52.6 (+6.4). The same tape/structure mismatch flagged for this pair last scan persists.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-08)
- AVGO posted the cut's largest RSI drop. 64.6 → 46.5 (-18.1), on -8.1% over the week; regime unchanged at "pullback."
- NVDA lost the cut's only "uptrend" regime tag. RSI barely moved (64.5 → 62.8, -1.7), but regime downgraded to "basing."
- QCOM's regime fell to "collapse." RSI stayed nearly flat (47.6 → 47.4, -0.2) — the second regime move this scan with no matching price signal.
- GEV posted the cut's biggest gain and upgraded to "uptrend." RSI 45.9 → 56.4 (+10.5).
- ASML also upgraded to "uptrend." RSI 51.9 → 59.8 (+7.9).
- CEG became the cut's highest RSI print, still "downtrend." RSI 54.3 → 63.2 (+8.9), regime unchanged from last scan.
- TLN improved but stayed "downtrend." RSI 46.2 → 52.6 (+6.4), regime unchanged.
- No name entered or left the oversold/overbought bands this scan — the cut's range compressed further, from 41.3-65.0 last scan to 44.7-63.2 this scan.
- Universe unchanged. Same 20 tickers as the August 8 cut — no entrants or dropouts, same exclusion list.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions; under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought/extended. vs SMA20 is the gap to the 20-day average — a large negative number means a fast recent decline. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders; a high number means most of the move is unrealized profit that can get sold into any weakness. Trend pairs direction/strength with a cross signal — GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross). This scan's regime moves are the notable read: NVDA and QCOM both lost ground on their regime tags with almost no RSI change to explain it, while AVGO's RSI cratered without a matching regime downgrade at all. Treat the regime field and the RSI field as two separate instruments this scan — they are not telling the same story for several names in this cut.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | vs VWAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ON | $82.66 | 44.7 | -1.0% | +1.8% | -10.7% | -26.9% | -39.6% | weak-down GC | +10.0% |
| AMAT | $507.18 | 45.0 | -3.3% | -5.9% | -12.5% | +16.3% | -27.7% | weak-down GC | +41.3% |
| AVGO | $392.99 | 46.5 | -1.6% | -8.1% | -0.3% | -7.4% | -15.6% | strong-up GC | +9.3% |
| QCOM | $165.79 | 47.4 | +1.6% | -1.2% | -6.9% | -17.4% | -36.6% | down GC | -5.1% |
| TXN | $279.58 | 47.5 | 0.0% | -2.3% | -6.7% | -7.2% | -18.1% | weak-down GC | +25.2% |
| AMKR | $58.99 | 49.5 | +5.0% | +6.7% | -12.8% | -16.1% | -40.3% | weak-down GC | +9.6% |
| LSCC | $130.46 | 50.7 | +1.7% | +0.3% | -1.5% | +8.6% | -18.2% | weak-down GC | +34.2% |
| ARM | $279.44 | 50.9 | +4.8% | -1.1% | +0.9% | +33.6% | -38.5% | weak-down GC | +33.5% |
| BE | $229.94 | 51.1 | +8.7% | +4.8% | -3.9% | -16.7% | -32.8% | weak-down GC | +42.9% |
| INTC | $102.50 | 51.2 | +5.9% | +0.8% | -0.5% | -5.8% | -26.6% | weak-down GC | +57.9% |
| TLN | $362.74 | 52.6 | +3.6% | +4.3% | -9.3% | +8.5% | -20.6% | down GC | -2.6% |
| AMD | $514.39 | 53.8 | +4.1% | +6.4% | -2.8% | +21.3% | -17.4% | strong-up GC | +85.0% |
| MRVL | $222.02 | 54.0 | +9.6% | +1.5% | +7.6% | +25.5% | -32.7% | weak-down GC | +39.0% |
| TSM | $426.35 | 54.4 | +3.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +5.7% | -10.1% | strong-up GC | +23.3% |
| MXL | $84.84 | 56.1 | +16.9% | +13.2% | -4.5% | -8.1% | -40.3% | strong-up GC | +47.7% |
| GEV | $1,063.25 | 56.4 | +5.3% | +7.4% | +0.8% | +1.4% | -12.3% | strong-up GC | +33.8% |
| ASML | $1,844.08 | 59.8 | +7.0% | +5.9% | +1.7% | +23.0% | -7.6% | strong-up GC | +36.5% |
| SWKS | $69.62 | 60.0 | +7.2% | -1.4% | +21.1% | +2.5% | -23.3% | strong-up GC | +6.4% |
| NVDA | $225.16 | 62.8 | +7.0% | +0.5% | +6.0% | +0.0% | -4.8% | strong-up GC | +18.2% |
| CEG | $282.50 | 63.2 | +5.0% | +4.7% | +9.5% | +5.7% | -32.5% | weak-up DC | -7.1% |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold band (RSI 25-40)
None — the lowest print in the cut is ON at 44.7, well clear of the band for a second straight scan.
Neutral and above (everyone else)
- Collapse-regime tier: QCOM — the cut's newest structurally-damaged name, despite an almost-unchanged RSI.
- Downtrend-regime tier: CEG, TLN — the two names not upgraded despite posting the cut's largest RSI gains alongside GEV.
- Pullback-regime tier: AMD, INTC, TSM, AVGO, MRVL, ARM, AMAT, AMKR, ON, LSCC, TXN, MXL, SWKS, BE — 14 names, the bulk of the cut.
- Basing-regime tier: NVDA — downgraded this scan from the cut's only "uptrend" tag.
- Uptrend-regime tier: ASML, GEV — the cut's two newly-upgraded names, now the only confirmed uptrends in the cut.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 7D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | $392.99 | <$346.82 (support shelf) | 46.5 | -8.1% | Cut's sharpest reversal this scan; regime still "pullback," shelf sits below |
| NVDA | $225.16 | <$189.50 (support shelf) | 62.8 | +0.5% | Regime downgraded to "basing" this scan; thesis still marked intact |
| QCOM | $165.79 | <$158.76 (support shelf) | 47.4 | -1.2% | Regime downgraded to "collapse" on an almost-flat RSI read; confirm before entry |
| GEV | $1,063.25 | Extended vs shelf at $626.42 | 56.4 | +7.4% | Cut's biggest RSI gain, regime newly upgraded to "uptrend" |
| CEG | $282.50 | <$278.03 (support shelf) | 63.2 | +4.7% | Cut's highest RSI print, but regime still reads "downtrend" — same mismatch as last scan |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | ASML, GEV | Newly confirmed "uptrend" regime this scan, cleanest reads in the cut, not extended |
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA, AVGO, BE, ARM | Thesis marked intact or intact-but-priced; note NVDA's regime softened to "basing" and AVGO dropped hard this scan |
| 🔍 WATCH | AMD, INTC, TSM, MRVL, AMAT, AMKR, ON, LSCC, TXN, MXL, SWKS | Broad pullback-regime, unrated thesis, no confirmed floor either way |
| ❌ AVOID / FALLING KNIFE | QCOM, CEG, TLN | "Collapse" or "downtrend" regime — the most structurally damaged names in the cut |
What To Watch Next
- AVGO dropped 18 RSI points this scan without a regime downgrade — does the regime classifier catch up, or does the tape recover first?
- NVDA lost its "uptrend" tag this scan on a nearly flat RSI — does the regime reconfirm next scan, or does NVDA drift further into "basing"?
- QCOM's regime fell to "collapse" despite unchanged RSI — is this a lagging classifier catching up to older weakness, or an early signal?
- GEV and ASML are now the cut's only two confirmed-uptrend names — does the rest of the group follow, or do these two stay outliers?
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-14 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.