NVDA Ecosystem Scan

Scan

NVDA Ecosystem Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 33 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-08-nvda-ecosystem.md

Data as-of 2026-08-14 close — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar this scan.

AVGO posted the cut's sharpest reversal: RSI 64.6 → 46.5 (-18.1 points) on a -8.13% week, while its regime classifier held at "pullback" — unchanged despite the drop. NVDA's regime moved the other way on almost no RSI change at all: RSI barely slipped (64.5 → 62.8, -1.7), but its classifier downgraded from the cut's lone confirmed "uptrend" last scan to "basing." QCOM's regime fell further, to "collapse," on a nearly flat RSI read (47.6 → 47.4) — a second regime move with no matching price signal. GEV (45.9 → 56.4, +10.5, the cut's biggest gain) and ASML (51.9 → 59.8, +7.9) both upgraded to "uptrend," now the only two names in the cut carrying that tag.

Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names. Latest bar 2026-08-14 for every name in this cut. Note: AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P (ai-infra.json) and EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC (energy.json) excluded as off-thesis for this ecosystem cut, same methodology as last scan. Prior scan: 2026-08-08-nvda-ecosystem.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A quiet-looking RSI range (44.7-63.2, no name oversold or overbought) hides real churn underneath — AVGO cratered, NVDA and QCOM both lost their regime tags, while GEV and ASML gained theirs
Leaders CEG (RSI 63.2, cut's highest print, regime still "downtrend"); NVDA (62.8, still the highest thesis-intact name despite the downgrade); GEV (56.4, cut's biggest gain, newly "uptrend")
Laggards AVGO (46.5, -18.1-point RSI drop, the cut's sharpest reversal); ON (44.7, weakest print in the cut, unchanged tier); QCOM (47.4, regime downgraded to "collapse" on a flat RSI read)
Key insight NVDA lost the cut's only confirmed "uptrend" tag this scan — downgraded to "basing" — even though its RSI barely moved; the group's headline name and its regime read are no longer in agreement

What's Going On

AVGO was the session's biggest mover, and not in a good way. RSI fell from 64.6 to 46.5 (-18.1 points, the largest single-name swing in the cut) on -8.13% over the week and -5.94% in a single day (change7d, change1d per semis.json). Its regime classifier held at "pullback," the same tag it carried into this scan — no downgrade despite the size of the drop, and its thesis flag stays marked "intact."

NVDA moved the opposite direction on the surface but told a similar story underneath. RSI eased only slightly, 64.5 to 62.8 (-1.7 points, essentially flat on +0.54% over the week), yet its regime classifier downgraded from "uptrend" — the only confirmed uptrend tag in last scan's cut — to "basing." QCOM's regime slipped further, from "pullback" to "collapse," on a nearly unchanged RSI (47.6 → 47.4, -0.2). Neither downgrade is explained by a large RSI or price move; both look like the regime classifier catching up to something the RSI hasn't shown yet.

GEV posted the cut's largest RSI gain: 45.9 to 56.4 (+10.5 points) on +7.36% over the week, and its regime upgraded from "pullback" to "uptrend." ASML posted a comparable move, 51.9 to 59.8 (+7.9 points) on +5.92% over the week, also upgrading to "uptrend." With NVDA's downgrade, GEV and ASML are now the only two names in the 20-ticker cut carrying a confirmed "uptrend" regime.

CEG and TLN remain the cut's two "downtrend"-tagged names, unchanged from last scan, even though both posted solid RSI gains this scan — CEG 54.3 → 63.2 (+8.9, now the cut's highest print) and TLN 46.2 → 52.6 (+6.4). The same tape/structure mismatch flagged for this pair last scan persists.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-08)

  • AVGO posted the cut's largest RSI drop. 64.6 → 46.5 (-18.1), on -8.1% over the week; regime unchanged at "pullback."
  • NVDA lost the cut's only "uptrend" regime tag. RSI barely moved (64.5 → 62.8, -1.7), but regime downgraded to "basing."
  • QCOM's regime fell to "collapse." RSI stayed nearly flat (47.6 → 47.4, -0.2) — the second regime move this scan with no matching price signal.
  • GEV posted the cut's biggest gain and upgraded to "uptrend." RSI 45.9 → 56.4 (+10.5).
  • ASML also upgraded to "uptrend." RSI 51.9 → 59.8 (+7.9).
  • CEG became the cut's highest RSI print, still "downtrend." RSI 54.3 → 63.2 (+8.9), regime unchanged from last scan.
  • TLN improved but stayed "downtrend." RSI 46.2 → 52.6 (+6.4), regime unchanged.
  • No name entered or left the oversold/overbought bands this scan — the cut's range compressed further, from 41.3-65.0 last scan to 44.7-63.2 this scan.
  • Universe unchanged. Same 20 tickers as the August 8 cut — no entrants or dropouts, same exclusion list.

How To Read The Board

RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions; under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought/extended. vs SMA20 is the gap to the 20-day average — a large negative number means a fast recent decline. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders; a high number means most of the move is unrealized profit that can get sold into any weakness. Trend pairs direction/strength with a cross signal — GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross). This scan's regime moves are the notable read: NVDA and QCOM both lost ground on their regime tags with almost no RSI change to explain it, while AVGO's RSI cratered without a matching regime downgrade at all. Treat the regime field and the RSI field as two separate instruments this scan — they are not telling the same story for several names in this cut.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi% Trend vs VWAP
ON $82.66 44.7 -1.0% +1.8% -10.7% -26.9% -39.6% weak-down GC +10.0%
AMAT $507.18 45.0 -3.3% -5.9% -12.5% +16.3% -27.7% weak-down GC +41.3%
AVGO $392.99 46.5 -1.6% -8.1% -0.3% -7.4% -15.6% strong-up GC +9.3%
QCOM $165.79 47.4 +1.6% -1.2% -6.9% -17.4% -36.6% down GC -5.1%
TXN $279.58 47.5 0.0% -2.3% -6.7% -7.2% -18.1% weak-down GC +25.2%
AMKR $58.99 49.5 +5.0% +6.7% -12.8% -16.1% -40.3% weak-down GC +9.6%
LSCC $130.46 50.7 +1.7% +0.3% -1.5% +8.6% -18.2% weak-down GC +34.2%
ARM $279.44 50.9 +4.8% -1.1% +0.9% +33.6% -38.5% weak-down GC +33.5%
BE $229.94 51.1 +8.7% +4.8% -3.9% -16.7% -32.8% weak-down GC +42.9%
INTC $102.50 51.2 +5.9% +0.8% -0.5% -5.8% -26.6% weak-down GC +57.9%
TLN $362.74 52.6 +3.6% +4.3% -9.3% +8.5% -20.6% down GC -2.6%
AMD $514.39 53.8 +4.1% +6.4% -2.8% +21.3% -17.4% strong-up GC +85.0%
MRVL $222.02 54.0 +9.6% +1.5% +7.6% +25.5% -32.7% weak-down GC +39.0%
TSM $426.35 54.4 +3.4% +1.5% +1.6% +5.7% -10.1% strong-up GC +23.3%
MXL $84.84 56.1 +16.9% +13.2% -4.5% -8.1% -40.3% strong-up GC +47.7%
GEV $1,063.25 56.4 +5.3% +7.4% +0.8% +1.4% -12.3% strong-up GC +33.8%
ASML $1,844.08 59.8 +7.0% +5.9% +1.7% +23.0% -7.6% strong-up GC +36.5%
SWKS $69.62 60.0 +7.2% -1.4% +21.1% +2.5% -23.3% strong-up GC +6.4%
NVDA $225.16 62.8 +7.0% +0.5% +6.0% +0.0% -4.8% strong-up GC +18.2%
CEG $282.50 63.2 +5.0% +4.7% +9.5% +5.7% -32.5% weak-up DC -7.1%

Tier Analysis

Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)

None.

Oversold band (RSI 25-40)

None — the lowest print in the cut is ON at 44.7, well clear of the band for a second straight scan.

Neutral and above (everyone else)

  • Collapse-regime tier: QCOM — the cut's newest structurally-damaged name, despite an almost-unchanged RSI.
  • Downtrend-regime tier: CEG, TLN — the two names not upgraded despite posting the cut's largest RSI gains alongside GEV.
  • Pullback-regime tier: AMD, INTC, TSM, AVGO, MRVL, ARM, AMAT, AMKR, ON, LSCC, TXN, MXL, SWKS, BE — 14 names, the bulk of the cut.
  • Basing-regime tier: NVDA — downgraded this scan from the cut's only "uptrend" tag.
  • Uptrend-regime tier: ASML, GEV — the cut's two newly-upgraded names, now the only confirmed uptrends in the cut.

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 7D% Setup
AVGO $392.99 <$346.82 (support shelf) 46.5 -8.1% Cut's sharpest reversal this scan; regime still "pullback," shelf sits below
NVDA $225.16 <$189.50 (support shelf) 62.8 +0.5% Regime downgraded to "basing" this scan; thesis still marked intact
QCOM $165.79 <$158.76 (support shelf) 47.4 -1.2% Regime downgraded to "collapse" on an almost-flat RSI read; confirm before entry
GEV $1,063.25 Extended vs shelf at $626.42 56.4 +7.4% Cut's biggest RSI gain, regime newly upgraded to "uptrend"
CEG $282.50 <$278.03 (support shelf) 63.2 +4.7% Cut's highest RSI print, but regime still reads "downtrend" — same mismatch as last scan

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
📈 ACCUMULATE ASML, GEV Newly confirmed "uptrend" regime this scan, cleanest reads in the cut, not extended
🔒 HOLD NVDA, AVGO, BE, ARM Thesis marked intact or intact-but-priced; note NVDA's regime softened to "basing" and AVGO dropped hard this scan
🔍 WATCH AMD, INTC, TSM, MRVL, AMAT, AMKR, ON, LSCC, TXN, MXL, SWKS Broad pullback-regime, unrated thesis, no confirmed floor either way
❌ AVOID / FALLING KNIFE QCOM, CEG, TLN "Collapse" or "downtrend" regime — the most structurally damaged names in the cut

What To Watch Next

  • AVGO dropped 18 RSI points this scan without a regime downgrade — does the regime classifier catch up, or does the tape recover first?
  • NVDA lost its "uptrend" tag this scan on a nearly flat RSI — does the regime reconfirm next scan, or does NVDA drift further into "basing"?
  • QCOM's regime fell to "collapse" despite unchanged RSI — is this a lagging classifier catching up to older weakness, or an early signal?
  • GEV and ASML are now the cut's only two confirmed-uptrend names — does the rest of the group follow, or do these two stay outliers?

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-14 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.