NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
This cohort's cooldown is now two scans deep: no name in this cut is above RSI 55, and $TLN pushed to a new cut-low of 32.4, deeper than any print this scan has tracked. Reads mixed on the week — $MRVL (-8.6 RSI points), $ASML (-7.1), and $SWKS (-4.2) all cooled further while $AVGO, $QCOM, and $CEG bounced modestly — but the long-trend check tells the same story it has for two scans running: the majority of this cut is trading well above its 200-day average with strongly positive year-over-year returns ($MRVL +233%, $INTC +259%, $AMD +176%, $MXL +268%). The same four names that failed the long-trend test last scan — $TLN, $CEG, $QCOM, $SWKS — still fail it this scan, unchanged as the group's genuine weak spot.
Data as-of the 2026-08-28 close (Friday's settled session) — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar this scan.
Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names — same 20-ticker cut and exclusion methodology as the prior scan (AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P/AIQ/SMH/SFTBY excluded from ai-infra.json; EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC/XLE/XOP/CMBT excluded from energy.json; SMH/SOXX excluded from semis.json as broad-basket duplicates). Prior scan: 2026-08-22-nvda-ecosystem.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A second straight scan of broad cooling — no name above RSI 55, a new cut-low on $TLN — but most of the cohort remains well above its 200-day average with a strongly positive year, so this stays a deep pullback rather than a rollover |
| Leaders | $CEG (RSI 54.4, the cut's highest print despite failing the long-trend test); $NVDA (52.3, basing, thesis marked intact, 11% above its 200-day) |
| Laggards | $TLN (32.4, a new cut-low, below its 200-day with a negative year); $ON (36.3); $GEV (37.0, still above its 200-day and up 44% on the year despite the drop) |
| Key insight | $MRVL — last scan's only gainer — posted this scan's sharpest single-name drop (RSI 55.8 → 47.2, -8.6 points) on a 8.6% weekly decline, yet remains 46% above its 200-day and up 180% on the year |
What's Going On
This cohort has now cooled for two consecutive scans, and the floor keeps dropping: $TLN fell to RSI 32.4, the lowest print this cut has shown, on a 5.8% weekly decline and a price now 13% below its 200-day average. Unlike the prior scan's uniform cooldown (19 of 20 names lower), this scan is mixed — $MRVL, $ASML, and $SWKS extended their declines while $AVGO, $QCOM, $INTC, and $CEG all bounced modestly off last scan's lows. Either way, not a single name in the cut is above RSI 55 for the first time in this scan's tracking history.
The long-trend check keeps telling a different story than the week-over-week RSI read. $MRVL posted the sharpest single-name drop this scan (RSI 55.8 to 47.2, an 8.6% weekly price decline) but is still 46% above its 200-day average and up 180% over the past year. $AMD, down modestly on the week, remains 39% above its 200-day and up 176% over the year. $MXL — despite an ongoing multi-scan decline — is still 33% above its 200-day and up 268% on the year. That combination is a deep pullback inside an intact multi-year uptrend, not a structural breakdown, and it covers the majority of this cut, including $NVDA itself (11% above its 200-day, up 21% over the year, basing rather than breaking).
Four names still fail that test, unchanged from the prior scan: $TLN and $CEG are both below their 200-day average with a negative year-over-year return (TLN -23.7%, CEG -13.4%) and badly negative long-trend alpha. $QCOM sits just below its 200-day with a barely positive year (+2.1%) and continues to carry the "collapse" tag in the underlying data. $SWKS is the trickiest case again: it's technically 3.1% above its 200-day but down 12.4% over the past year with a heavily negative alpha — the same flat-or-down-on-the-year, lagging-alpha tell that separates a genuinely broken name from one just having a rough week.
$ON and $AMKR remain the two names worth a close watch without confirmed breakdown status. $ON is 6.6% below its 200-day but still up 43% over the past year; $AMKR is 14.1% below its 200-day yet up 94% on the year. Both are testing their long-term average from below after a strong multi-year run rather than showing the clean below-200-day, negative-1Y signature that defines the breakdown group.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-22)
- The cohort's floor moved lower for a second straight scan. $TLN dropped from RSI 37.3 to 32.4 (-4.9), a new cut-low, price down 5.8% for the week.
- $MRVL posted the cut's sharpest single-scan drop, reversing its status as the only gainer last scan. RSI 55.8 → 47.2 (-8.6), price down 8.6% for the week — still 46% above its 200-day.
- $ASML gave back its recovery from last scan. RSI 50.5 → 43.4 (-7.1), still up 122% over the year.
- $SWKS extended its decline. RSI 52.1 → 47.9 (-4.2), still flat-to-down on the year (-12.4%).
- $AVGO and $QCOM both bounced off last scan's lows. AVGO: 38.7 → 42.7 (+4.0). QCOM: 43.6 → 48.5 (+4.9) — QCOM remains below its 200-day.
- $INTC and $CEG also recovered modestly. INTC: 39.6 → 41.5 (+1.9). CEG: 53.0 → 54.4 (+1.4), still the cut's highest print despite failing the long-trend test.
- No name in the cut is above RSI 55 — the first time this scan's tracking has shown zero names in the upper half of the neutral band.
- The same four names — $TLN, $CEG, $QCOM, $SWKS — remain the only genuine breakdowns, unchanged from the prior scan.
- No stale bars this scan — every name carries a fresh 2026-08-28 close.
- Universe unchanged. Same 20 tickers and exclusion methodology as the prior scan.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions — under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought. vs SMA20 is the price gap to the 20-day average; a fast decline shows up as a large negative number. 1Y% and vs SMA200 are the two numbers to check before calling anything a breakdown: a name trading above its 200-day average with a strongly positive year is in a deep pullback inside an intact trend no matter how ugly the week looks — most of this cut fits that description for a second straight scan. A name trading below its 200-day with a flat-to-negative year and negative long-trend alpha, like $TLN, $CEG, $QCOM, and $SWKS, is the one actually under structural test.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLN | $296.11 | 32.4 | $331.81 | -10.8% | -5.8% | -6.4% | -23.7% | -17.7% | 🔴 Breakdown, new cut-low |
| ON | $72.61 | 36.3 | $77.97 | -6.9% | -2.2% | -7.9% | +43.0% | -6.6% | 🟡 Testing 200-day, still +43% 1Y |
| GEV | $911.93 | 37.0 | $993.54 | -8.2% | -4.8% | +1.3% | +43.9% | +3.9% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| AMAT | $461.67 | 37.6 | $511.28 | -9.7% | -6.3% | +5.8% | +179.3% | +15.0% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| TXN | $258.64 | 38.3 | $272.23 | -5.0% | -2.1% | -4.7% | +26.7% | +9.1% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| AMKR | $47.88 | 39.3 | $53.11 | -9.9% | -4.7% | +12.1% | +94.2% | -14.1% | 🟡 Below 200-day, still +94% 1Y |
| LSCC | $114.40 | 39.5 | $124.45 | -8.1% | -2.8% | +1.3% | +71.6% | +7.1% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| ARM | $239.05 | 40.0 | $261.20 | -8.5% | -1.8% | +6.3% | +67.7% | +19.9% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| MXL | $61.73 | 41.4 | $69.94 | -11.7% | -7.4% | +7.8% | +268.3% | +33.3% | 🟡 Ongoing decline, still intact |
| INTC | $89.47 | 41.5 | $95.87 | -6.7% | -0.7% | +9.3% | +258.9% | +22.9% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| AVGO | $368.79 | 42.7 | $391.06 | -5.7% | +0.1% | -0.4% | +20.4% | -0.2% | 🟡 Testing 200-day, still +20% 1Y |
| ASML | $1,696.16 | 43.4 | $1,756.30 | -3.4% | -3.9% | +9.4% | +122.2% | +15.9% | 🟡 Mild pullback, intact |
| AMD | $465.57 | 44.8 | $482.04 | -3.4% | -1.6% | +8.4% | +176.2% | +38.7% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| BE | $210.77 | 46.3 | $218.71 | -3.6% | +4.6% | +28.7% | +284.6% | +11.8% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| MRVL | $216.62 | 47.2 | $224.17 | -3.4% | -8.6% | +32.6% | +180.5% | +45.7% | 🟡 Sharpest drop, still intact |
| SWKS | $65.79 | 47.9 | $67.49 | -2.5% | -2.0% | +7.5% | -12.4% | +3.1% | 🔴 Flat-to-down 1Y, weak alpha |
| QCOM | $164.19 | 48.5 | $161.80 | +1.5% | +2.1% | +5.5% | +2.1% | -2.2% | 🔴 Breakdown |
| TSM | $417.52 | 49.6 | $419.18 | -0.4% | -0.3% | +11.4% | +75.2% | +13.0% | 🟡 Mild pullback, intact |
| NVDA | $217.55 | 52.3 | $218.05 | -0.2% | +1.3% | +14.5% | +20.9% | +11.1% | 🟡 Basing, thesis intact |
| CEG | $276.75 | 54.4 | $274.06 | +1.0% | +1.4% | +7.3% | -13.4% | -7.1% | 🔴 Breakdown |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
$TLN (32.4), $ON (36.3), $GEV (37.0), $AMAT (37.6), $TXN (38.3), $AMKR (39.3), $LSCC (39.5) — seven names in this band, matching the deepest level this cut has shown. $GEV, $AMAT, $TXN, $LSCC, and $AMKR still carry a positive year-over-year return and sit at or above their 200-day (AMKR being the exception on the 200-day but not on the year); $TLN is the one that fails the long-trend test outright.
RSI 40+ (everyone else)
- Genuine breakdown (below 200-day, negative or flat/lagging 1-year): $TLN, $CEG, $QCOM, $SWKS — the same four names as the prior scan, the only ones in the cut that fail the long-trend check.
- Deep pullback, long trend intact: $ARM, $MXL, $INTC, $AVGO, $ASML, $AMD, $BE, $MRVL, $TSM, $NVDA — ten names, the bulk of the cut, all above their 200-day (or, for AVGO, essentially flat on it) with solidly positive year-over-year returns.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 1Y% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $217.55 | <$189.74 (support shelf) | 52.3 | +20.9% | Basing after a two-scan cohort cooldown; thesis still marked intact, 11% above its 200-day |
| MRVL | $216.62 | <$89.40 (support shelf, far below) | 47.2 | +180.5% | This scan's sharpest single-name drop but still 46% above its 200-day |
| AMD | $465.57 | <$230.88 (support shelf, far below) | 44.8 | +176.2% | 39% above its 200-day despite the pullback |
| TLN | $296.11 | No support shelf identified | 32.4 | -23.7% | The cut's deepest breakdown, a new cut-low this scan, no confirmed floor |
| AVGO | $368.79 | <$352.12 (support shelf) | 42.7 | +20.4% | Testing its 200-day from just below for a second straight scan |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA, TSM, ASML, MRVL | Above the 200-day, positive year-over-year return, thesis intact where marked |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | MXL, AMD, INTC, AMAT, LSCC, ARM, BE, GEV | Deep pullback this scan but still well above the 200-day with strong multi-year returns |
| 🔍 WATCH | AVGO, ON, AMKR, TXN | Testing or briefly below the 200-day line; positive year-over-year return keeps these out of the breakdown bucket, but confirm before entry |
| ❌ AVOID / BREAKDOWN WATCH | TLN, CEG, QCOM, SWKS | Below (or flat on) the 200-day with a negative or lagging year-over-year return and negative long-trend alpha, unchanged from the prior scan |
What To Watch Next
- $TLN pushed to a new cut-low this scan (RSI 32.4) — does it find a floor, or does the breakdown deepen further?
- No name in the cut is above RSI 55 — is this the bottom of the two-scan cooldown, or does the pullback have further to run before the cohort stabilizes?
- $MRVL posted the sharpest single-name drop this scan after being the only gainer last time — does it find support near its shelf, or does the reversal continue?
- $SWKS remains flat-to-down on the year with a badly negative alpha despite sitting technically above its 200-day — does the price confirm the breakdown, or does the alpha catch up to the price instead?
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
- Prior scan for comparison: 2026-08-22-nvda-ecosystem.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.