NVDA Ecosystem Scan

Scan

NVDA Ecosystem Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 33 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-22-nvda-ecosystem.md

This cohort's cooldown is now two scans deep: no name in this cut is above RSI 55, and $TLN pushed to a new cut-low of 32.4, deeper than any print this scan has tracked. Reads mixed on the week — $MRVL (-8.6 RSI points), $ASML (-7.1), and $SWKS (-4.2) all cooled further while $AVGO, $QCOM, and $CEG bounced modestly — but the long-trend check tells the same story it has for two scans running: the majority of this cut is trading well above its 200-day average with strongly positive year-over-year returns ($MRVL +233%, $INTC +259%, $AMD +176%, $MXL +268%). The same four names that failed the long-trend test last scan — $TLN, $CEG, $QCOM, $SWKS — still fail it this scan, unchanged as the group's genuine weak spot.

Data as-of the 2026-08-28 close (Friday's settled session) — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar this scan.

Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names — same 20-ticker cut and exclusion methodology as the prior scan (AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P/AIQ/SMH/SFTBY excluded from ai-infra.json; EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC/XLE/XOP/CMBT excluded from energy.json; SMH/SOXX excluded from semis.json as broad-basket duplicates). Prior scan: 2026-08-22-nvda-ecosystem.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A second straight scan of broad cooling — no name above RSI 55, a new cut-low on $TLN — but most of the cohort remains well above its 200-day average with a strongly positive year, so this stays a deep pullback rather than a rollover
Leaders $CEG (RSI 54.4, the cut's highest print despite failing the long-trend test); $NVDA (52.3, basing, thesis marked intact, 11% above its 200-day)
Laggards $TLN (32.4, a new cut-low, below its 200-day with a negative year); $ON (36.3); $GEV (37.0, still above its 200-day and up 44% on the year despite the drop)
Key insight $MRVL — last scan's only gainer — posted this scan's sharpest single-name drop (RSI 55.8 → 47.2, -8.6 points) on a 8.6% weekly decline, yet remains 46% above its 200-day and up 180% on the year

What's Going On

This cohort has now cooled for two consecutive scans, and the floor keeps dropping: $TLN fell to RSI 32.4, the lowest print this cut has shown, on a 5.8% weekly decline and a price now 13% below its 200-day average. Unlike the prior scan's uniform cooldown (19 of 20 names lower), this scan is mixed — $MRVL, $ASML, and $SWKS extended their declines while $AVGO, $QCOM, $INTC, and $CEG all bounced modestly off last scan's lows. Either way, not a single name in the cut is above RSI 55 for the first time in this scan's tracking history.

The long-trend check keeps telling a different story than the week-over-week RSI read. $MRVL posted the sharpest single-name drop this scan (RSI 55.8 to 47.2, an 8.6% weekly price decline) but is still 46% above its 200-day average and up 180% over the past year. $AMD, down modestly on the week, remains 39% above its 200-day and up 176% over the year. $MXL — despite an ongoing multi-scan decline — is still 33% above its 200-day and up 268% on the year. That combination is a deep pullback inside an intact multi-year uptrend, not a structural breakdown, and it covers the majority of this cut, including $NVDA itself (11% above its 200-day, up 21% over the year, basing rather than breaking).

Four names still fail that test, unchanged from the prior scan: $TLN and $CEG are both below their 200-day average with a negative year-over-year return (TLN -23.7%, CEG -13.4%) and badly negative long-trend alpha. $QCOM sits just below its 200-day with a barely positive year (+2.1%) and continues to carry the "collapse" tag in the underlying data. $SWKS is the trickiest case again: it's technically 3.1% above its 200-day but down 12.4% over the past year with a heavily negative alpha — the same flat-or-down-on-the-year, lagging-alpha tell that separates a genuinely broken name from one just having a rough week.

$ON and $AMKR remain the two names worth a close watch without confirmed breakdown status. $ON is 6.6% below its 200-day but still up 43% over the past year; $AMKR is 14.1% below its 200-day yet up 94% on the year. Both are testing their long-term average from below after a strong multi-year run rather than showing the clean below-200-day, negative-1Y signature that defines the breakdown group.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-22)

  • The cohort's floor moved lower for a second straight scan. $TLN dropped from RSI 37.3 to 32.4 (-4.9), a new cut-low, price down 5.8% for the week.
  • $MRVL posted the cut's sharpest single-scan drop, reversing its status as the only gainer last scan. RSI 55.8 → 47.2 (-8.6), price down 8.6% for the week — still 46% above its 200-day.
  • $ASML gave back its recovery from last scan. RSI 50.5 → 43.4 (-7.1), still up 122% over the year.
  • $SWKS extended its decline. RSI 52.1 → 47.9 (-4.2), still flat-to-down on the year (-12.4%).
  • $AVGO and $QCOM both bounced off last scan's lows. AVGO: 38.7 → 42.7 (+4.0). QCOM: 43.6 → 48.5 (+4.9) — QCOM remains below its 200-day.
  • $INTC and $CEG also recovered modestly. INTC: 39.6 → 41.5 (+1.9). CEG: 53.0 → 54.4 (+1.4), still the cut's highest print despite failing the long-trend test.
  • No name in the cut is above RSI 55 — the first time this scan's tracking has shown zero names in the upper half of the neutral band.
  • The same four names — $TLN, $CEG, $QCOM, $SWKS — remain the only genuine breakdowns, unchanged from the prior scan.
  • No stale bars this scan — every name carries a fresh 2026-08-28 close.
  • Universe unchanged. Same 20 tickers and exclusion methodology as the prior scan.

How To Read The Board

RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions — under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought. vs SMA20 is the price gap to the 20-day average; a fast decline shows up as a large negative number. 1Y% and vs SMA200 are the two numbers to check before calling anything a breakdown: a name trading above its 200-day average with a strongly positive year is in a deep pullback inside an intact trend no matter how ugly the week looks — most of this cut fits that description for a second straight scan. A name trading below its 200-day with a flat-to-negative year and negative long-trend alpha, like $TLN, $CEG, $QCOM, and $SWKS, is the one actually under structural test.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Signal
TLN $296.11 32.4 $331.81 -10.8% -5.8% -6.4% -23.7% -17.7% 🔴 Breakdown, new cut-low
ON $72.61 36.3 $77.97 -6.9% -2.2% -7.9% +43.0% -6.6% 🟡 Testing 200-day, still +43% 1Y
GEV $911.93 37.0 $993.54 -8.2% -4.8% +1.3% +43.9% +3.9% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
AMAT $461.67 37.6 $511.28 -9.7% -6.3% +5.8% +179.3% +15.0% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
TXN $258.64 38.3 $272.23 -5.0% -2.1% -4.7% +26.7% +9.1% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
AMKR $47.88 39.3 $53.11 -9.9% -4.7% +12.1% +94.2% -14.1% 🟡 Below 200-day, still +94% 1Y
LSCC $114.40 39.5 $124.45 -8.1% -2.8% +1.3% +71.6% +7.1% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
ARM $239.05 40.0 $261.20 -8.5% -1.8% +6.3% +67.7% +19.9% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
MXL $61.73 41.4 $69.94 -11.7% -7.4% +7.8% +268.3% +33.3% 🟡 Ongoing decline, still intact
INTC $89.47 41.5 $95.87 -6.7% -0.7% +9.3% +258.9% +22.9% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
AVGO $368.79 42.7 $391.06 -5.7% +0.1% -0.4% +20.4% -0.2% 🟡 Testing 200-day, still +20% 1Y
ASML $1,696.16 43.4 $1,756.30 -3.4% -3.9% +9.4% +122.2% +15.9% 🟡 Mild pullback, intact
AMD $465.57 44.8 $482.04 -3.4% -1.6% +8.4% +176.2% +38.7% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
BE $210.77 46.3 $218.71 -3.6% +4.6% +28.7% +284.6% +11.8% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
MRVL $216.62 47.2 $224.17 -3.4% -8.6% +32.6% +180.5% +45.7% 🟡 Sharpest drop, still intact
SWKS $65.79 47.9 $67.49 -2.5% -2.0% +7.5% -12.4% +3.1% 🔴 Flat-to-down 1Y, weak alpha
QCOM $164.19 48.5 $161.80 +1.5% +2.1% +5.5% +2.1% -2.2% 🔴 Breakdown
TSM $417.52 49.6 $419.18 -0.4% -0.3% +11.4% +75.2% +13.0% 🟡 Mild pullback, intact
NVDA $217.55 52.3 $218.05 -0.2% +1.3% +14.5% +20.9% +11.1% 🟡 Basing, thesis intact
CEG $276.75 54.4 $274.06 +1.0% +1.4% +7.3% -13.4% -7.1% 🔴 Breakdown

Tier Analysis

Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)

None.

Oversold (RSI 25-40)

$TLN (32.4), $ON (36.3), $GEV (37.0), $AMAT (37.6), $TXN (38.3), $AMKR (39.3), $LSCC (39.5) — seven names in this band, matching the deepest level this cut has shown. $GEV, $AMAT, $TXN, $LSCC, and $AMKR still carry a positive year-over-year return and sit at or above their 200-day (AMKR being the exception on the 200-day but not on the year); $TLN is the one that fails the long-trend test outright.

RSI 40+ (everyone else)

  • Genuine breakdown (below 200-day, negative or flat/lagging 1-year): $TLN, $CEG, $QCOM, $SWKS — the same four names as the prior scan, the only ones in the cut that fail the long-trend check.
  • Deep pullback, long trend intact: $ARM, $MXL, $INTC, $AVGO, $ASML, $AMD, $BE, $MRVL, $TSM, $NVDA — ten names, the bulk of the cut, all above their 200-day (or, for AVGO, essentially flat on it) with solidly positive year-over-year returns.

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 1Y% Setup
NVDA $217.55 <$189.74 (support shelf) 52.3 +20.9% Basing after a two-scan cohort cooldown; thesis still marked intact, 11% above its 200-day
MRVL $216.62 <$89.40 (support shelf, far below) 47.2 +180.5% This scan's sharpest single-name drop but still 46% above its 200-day
AMD $465.57 <$230.88 (support shelf, far below) 44.8 +176.2% 39% above its 200-day despite the pullback
TLN $296.11 No support shelf identified 32.4 -23.7% The cut's deepest breakdown, a new cut-low this scan, no confirmed floor
AVGO $368.79 <$352.12 (support shelf) 42.7 +20.4% Testing its 200-day from just below for a second straight scan

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD NVDA, TSM, ASML, MRVL Above the 200-day, positive year-over-year return, thesis intact where marked
📈 ACCUMULATE MXL, AMD, INTC, AMAT, LSCC, ARM, BE, GEV Deep pullback this scan but still well above the 200-day with strong multi-year returns
🔍 WATCH AVGO, ON, AMKR, TXN Testing or briefly below the 200-day line; positive year-over-year return keeps these out of the breakdown bucket, but confirm before entry
❌ AVOID / BREAKDOWN WATCH TLN, CEG, QCOM, SWKS Below (or flat on) the 200-day with a negative or lagging year-over-year return and negative long-trend alpha, unchanged from the prior scan

What To Watch Next

  • $TLN pushed to a new cut-low this scan (RSI 32.4) — does it find a floor, or does the breakdown deepen further?
  • No name in the cut is above RSI 55 — is this the bottom of the two-scan cooldown, or does the pullback have further to run before the cohort stabilizes?
  • $MRVL posted the sharpest single-name drop this scan after being the only gainer last time — does it find support near its shelf, or does the reversal continue?
  • $SWKS remains flat-to-down on the year with a badly negative alpha despite sitting technically above its 200-day — does the price confirm the breakdown, or does the alpha catch up to the price instead?

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
  • Prior scan for comparison: 2026-08-22-nvda-ecosystem.
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.