NVDA Ecosystem Scan

Scan

NVDA Ecosystem Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 35 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-28-nvda-ecosystem.md

Every name in this 20-ticker cut closed higher on the day — the first universal up-day this scan has tracked — and five names (TSM, NVDA, BE, CEG, SWKS) pushed back above RSI 55 after two straight scans where none did. But this reads as a bounce inside a still-damaged complex, not a reversal: several of today's biggest gainers are still down double digits over the past three months ($ON -36.6%, $ARM -26.5%, $AMKR -26.3%, $QCOM -21.9%), and only $NVDA itself sits close to its 52-week high (-2.6%) while the rest of the cohort trades roughly a quarter below its own peak. $TLN remains the cut's only clean breakdown — below its 200-day average with a negative year-over-year return — though even it recovered 13.8 RSI points this scan. $CEG and $QCOM both climbed back barely above their 200-day line while staying flat-to-negative on the year, and $SWKS is now the cut's highest RSI (67.7) despite still being down slightly on the year with a badly negative alpha.

Data as-of the 2026-09-04 close (Friday's settled session) — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar this scan.

Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names — same 20-ticker cut and exclusion methodology as the prior scan (AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P/AIQ/SMH/SFTBY excluded from ai-infra.json; EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC/XLE/XOP/CMBT excluded from energy.json; SMH/SOXX excluded from semis.json as broad-basket duplicates). Prior scan: 2026-08-28-nvda-ecosystem.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A broad one-day bounce (100% of names higher) inside a quarter that's still deeply damaged for most of the cohort — real strength, but not yet a trend change
Leaders $SWKS (RSI 67.7, the cut's highest print, up 19.8 points this scan); $CEG (66.7, up 12.3); $BE (63.1, up 16.8 on a 7.35% single-day gain)
Laggards $AVGO (38.1, the only name to fall further this scan despite the broad bounce); $AMAT (39.8); $AMKR (41.3)
Key insight $NVDA is just 2.6% off its 52-week high while the rest of the cut sits roughly a quarter below its own peak — the cleanest chart in a cohort that's still bouncing off a bruised three months

What's Going On

Every one of the 20 names in this cut closed higher on the day, several by 4-7% — $MRVL (+7.05%), $BE (+7.35%), $CEG (+4.88%), $AMD (+4.69%), $INTC (+4.51%), $ASML (+4.17%), $AMAT (+4.31%). That reverses two straight scans in which no name in the cut closed above RSI 55; today five do — $TSM (56.8), $NVDA (60.4), $BE (63.1), $CEG (66.7), $SWKS (67.7).

Translate that pop against the last quarter and the picture is more mixed. Several of today's strongest single-day movers are still down double digits over three months: $ON is off 36.6% over that window, $ARM 26.5%, $AMKR 26.3%, $QCOM 21.9%, $MXL 22.5%, $AMAT 14.8%. The cut's typical distance from its own 52-week high runs roughly negative-high-20s to negative-30s (AVGO -27.6%, AMKR -50.5%, ON -44.9%, ARM -44.3%, MXL -51.1%), and $NVDA is the standout exception at just -2.6% off its high — the cleanest chart in the cohort even as most of its ecosystem trades a quarter down. That combination — a broad one-day pop riding on top of a bruised quarter — is the read to hold onto before calling this scan's bounce a trend change.

The long-trend check still separates the cut's one genuine breakdown from names that are simply having a rough quarter. $TLN is the only name both below its 200-day average (-11.5%) and negative on the year (-16.7%) — still a clean breakdown, though it recovered 13.8 RSI points this scan (32.4 to 46.2) and both of its long-trend numbers improved from two scans ago (-17.7%/-23.7%). $CEG and $QCOM, the other two names flagged as breakdowns for three straight scans, both climbed back barely above their 200-day line this scan — CEG to +0.9%, QCOM to +0.5% — even though their year-over-year returns stayed flat-to-negative (CEG -3.3%, QCOM +5.7% with a badly negative alpha of -13). Call that "recovering price, still-lagging trend" rather than a clean pass. $SWKS is the trickiest name in the cut: comfortably above its 200-day (+15.9%) with the cohort's highest RSI, yet still down slightly on the year (-0.8%) with an alpha of -19.5 — the same misleading-RSI signature flagged here for two scans running.

The remaining sixteen names — $AVGO, $AMAT, $AMKR, $TXN, $ON, $LSCC, $GEV, $MXL, $ARM, $ASML, $AMD, $MRVL, $INTC, $TSM, $NVDA, $BE — are all above their 200-day average (or, like $AVGO at -3.0%, essentially testing it from just below) with strongly positive year-over-year returns, several of them extreme: $MXL +303%, $INTC +289%, $MRVL +249%, $BE +361%, $AMD +195%. That's the deep-pullback-inside-an-intact-uptrend read that's held for the bulk of this cut for three scans running.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-28)

  • Every name in the cut closed higher on the day — the first universal up-day this scan has tracked, reversing two consecutive scans of broad cooling.
  • $SWKS posted the cut's largest RSI gain. RSI 47.9 → 67.7 (+19.8) on a 12.5% weekly gain — now the cut's highest print, though still flat-to-down on the year (-0.8%).
  • $BE surged on the day's biggest single-name move. RSI 46.3 → 63.1 (+16.8), price up 7.35% on the day and 20.0% for the week.
  • $TLN recovered the most of any name below its 200-day. RSI 32.4 → 46.2 (+13.8) — still the cut's only clean breakdown, but well off last scan's cut-low.
  • $CEG and $QCOM both climbed back above their 200-day. CEG: RSI 54.4 → 66.7 (+12.3), vs-200-day -7.1% → +0.9%. QCOM: RSI 48.5 → 53.1 (+4.6), vs-200-day -2.2% → +0.5% — both remain flat-to-negative on the year despite the price recovery.
  • $AVGO was the only name to fall further this scan, RSI 42.7 → 38.1 (-4.6), even as the rest of the cohort bounced — still +16.9% on the year.
  • No name was above RSI 55 last scan; five are now — $TSM, $NVDA, $BE, $CEG, $SWKS.
  • The oversold band emptied from seven names to one. $TLN, $ON, $GEV, $AMAT, $TXN, $AMKR, $LSCC were all in the 25-40 band two scans ago; only $AVGO (38.1) remains there now.
  • No stale bars this scan — every name carries a fresh 2026-09-04 close.
  • Universe unchanged. Same 20 tickers and exclusion methodology as the prior scan.

How To Read The Board

RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions — under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought. vs SMA20 is the price gap to the 20-day average; a fast move shows up as a large number in either direction. 1Y% and vs SMA200 are the two numbers to check before calling anything a breakdown or a trend change: a name trading above its 200-day average with a strongly positive year is in a deep pullback inside an intact trend, no matter how sharp today's single-day move looks — most of this cut fits that description. $TLN, trading below its 200-day with a negative year, is the one name actually under structural test. $CEG, $QCOM, and $SWKS are the trickiest reads this scan: all three now sit at or above their 200-day, but their year-over-year returns are still flat-to-negative with badly lagging alpha — a rising RSI or price recovering above a moving average doesn't erase that gap on its own. 3M% matters this scan specifically: several names posting today's biggest gains are still down double digits over the past quarter, which is the difference between a one-day bounce and a resumed uptrend.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA20 1D% 7D% 30D% 3M% 1Y% vs SMA200 52wkHi Signal
AVGO $357.90 38.1 $378.32 -5.4% +0.2% -3.0% -14.4% -7.1% +16.9% -3.0% -27.6% 🟡 Only name to fall further, still intact
AMAT $454.71 39.8 $489.24 -7.1% +4.3% -1.5% -14.8% +0.5% +187.4% +11.9% -38.5% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
AMKR $47.77 41.3 $51.28 -6.8% +1.8% 0.0% -11.1% -26.3% +96.7% -14.6% -50.5% 🟡 Below 200-day, still +97% 1Y
TXN $258.44 41.5 $266.56 -3.0% +1.8% -0.1% -6.9% -9.3% +38.0% +8.0% -22.6% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
ON $74.38 41.9 $76.45 -2.7% +1.0% +2.5% -3.3% -36.6% +54.8% -5.1% -44.9% 🟡 Testing 200-day, still +55% 1Y
LSCC $115.90 43.5 $120.37 -3.7% +2.0% +1.4% -9.7% -14.5% +75.7% +7.3% -26.2% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
GEV $941.95 44.6 $971.98 -3.1% 0.0% +3.3% -7.5% +0.9% +57.3% +6.3% -21.2% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
MXL $62.74 44.6 $67.30 -6.8% +5.5% +1.8% -7.0% -22.5% +303.5% +32.2% -51.1% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
TLN $317.00 46.2 $322.49 -1.7% +3.8% +7.1% -3.9% -13.1% -16.7% -11.5% -29.8% 🔴 Only clean breakdown, recovering
ARM $252.09 48.0 $253.34 -0.5% +3.9% +5.5% -8.2% -26.5% +86.1% +24.9% -44.3% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
ASML $1,714.88 48.3 $1,752.62 -2.2% +4.2% +1.1% +2.2% +4.6% +127.6% +16.1% -14.1% 🟡 Mild pullback, intact
AMD $477.57 49.7 $475.20 +0.5% +4.7% +2.6% -0.9% +2.4% +195.2% +40.1% -18.3% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
MRVL $223.55 51.1 $224.58 -0.5% +7.1% +3.2% +5.9% -15.2% +248.8% +47.3% -32.2% 🟡 Biggest 1D pop, still intact
INTC $95.80 51.7 $93.95 +2.0% +4.5% +7.1% -5.2% -3.4% +289.3% +29.2% -32.7% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
QCOM $168.74 53.1 $164.02 +2.9% +0.1% +2.8% +7.1% -21.9% +5.7% +0.5% -35.1% 🔴 Back above 200-day, still flat 1Y
TSM $428.91 56.8 $419.94 +2.1% +2.9% +2.6% +3.6% +3.3% +82.4% +15.0% -10.5% 🟡 Mild pullback, intact
NVDA $230.36 60.4 $220.08 +4.7% +0.8% +5.9% +5.1% +12.3% +34.2% +17.1% -2.6% 🟢 Cleanest chart, near highs
BE $252.87 63.1 $218.54 +15.7% +7.4% +20.0% +7.9% -4.1% +360.5% +32.2% -28.0% 🟢 Uptrend, thesis intact
CEG $298.96 66.7 $278.66 +7.3% +4.9% +8.0% +12.8% +17.3% -3.3% +0.9% -27.6% 🔴 Back above 200-day, still flat 1Y
SWKS $74.02 67.7 $68.44 +8.1% +3.5% +12.5% +10.5% +0.6% -0.8% +15.9% -18.6% 🔴 Cut's highest RSI, still flat 1Y

Tier Analysis

Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)

None.

Oversold (RSI 25-40)

$AVGO (38.1) — the only name remaining in this band, down from seven names two scans ago ($TLN, $ON, $GEV, $AMAT, $TXN, $AMKR, $LSCC all sat here at the deepest point of the cooldown). $AVGO is also the only name in the entire cut to fall further this scan despite the broad bounce, though it remains up 16.9% on the year with price just 3.0% below its 200-day.

RSI 40+ (everyone else)

  • Genuine breakdown (below 200-day, negative 1-year): $TLN — the cut's only remaining name that fails the long-trend check outright, though it recovered the most RSI of any name this scan.
  • Recovering price, still-lagging trend: $CEG, $QCOM — both climbed back above their 200-day this scan but remain flat-to-negative on the year with badly lagging alpha.
  • Flat 1-year despite the cut's highest RSI: $SWKS — comfortably above its 200-day, yet still slightly negative on the year with an alpha of -19.5.
  • Deep pullback, long trend intact: $AMAT, $AMKR, $TXN, $ON, $LSCC, $GEV, $MXL, $ARM, $ASML, $AMD, $MRVL, $INTC, $TSM, $NVDA, $BE — fifteen names, the bulk of the cut, all above (or essentially at) their 200-day with strongly positive year-over-year returns.

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 1Y% Setup
NVDA $230.36 <$189.74 (support shelf) 60.4 +34.2% Just 2.6% off its 52-week high — the cleanest chart in the cohort
AVGO $357.90 <$344.95 (support shelf) 38.1 +16.9% Only name still falling this scan; testing its 200-day from just below
MRVL $223.55 <$89.40 (support shelf, far below) 51.1 +248.8% Today's biggest single-name pop (+7.1%), still 47% above its 200-day
BE $252.87 <$218.98 (support shelf) 63.1 +360.5% Second-biggest 1D mover (+7.4%); thesis marked intact
TLN $317.00 No support shelf identified 46.2 -16.7% The cut's only clean breakdown, though it recovered 13.8 RSI points this scan

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD NVDA, TSM, ASML, MRVL, BE Above the 200-day, strongly positive year-over-year return, thesis marked intact where tracked
📈 ACCUMULATE AMD, INTC, AMAT, LSCC, ARM, MXL, GEV Deep pullback this scan but well above the 200-day with strong multi-year returns
🔍 WATCH AVGO, ON, AMKR, TXN Testing or briefly below the 200-day line; positive year-over-year return keeps these out of the breakdown bucket, but confirm before entry
⚠️ RECOVERING, STILL LAGGING CEG, QCOM Price climbed back above the 200-day this scan, but the year-over-year return and alpha are still flat-to-negative
⚠️ FLAT-1Y, WEAK ALPHA SWKS Cut's highest RSI this scan but still slightly negative on the year with badly lagging alpha
❌ AVOID / BREAKDOWN WATCH TLN Below the 200-day with a negative year-over-year return — the cut's one remaining genuine breakdown

What To Watch Next

  • $AVGO was the only name to fall further this scan while the rest of the cohort bounced — is this the start of a new laggard, or noise inside an otherwise broad rally?
  • $TLN recovered 13.8 RSI points but remains the cut's only clean breakdown — does the bounce carry it back above its 200-day, or does it fade?
  • $CEG and $QCOM both climbed back above their 200-day this scan while staying flat-to-negative on the year — does the price recovery pull the trend numbers up with it, or does the alpha catch down to the price again?
  • Is today's universal up-day (100% of names higher, five now above RSI 55) the start of a new leg, or a one-day bounce inside a quarter that's still deeply negative for several names ($ON -36.6%, $ARM -26.5%, $AMKR -26.3%)?

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
  • Prior scan for comparison: 2026-08-28-nvda-ecosystem.
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.