NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
Every name in this 20-ticker cut closed higher on the day — the first universal up-day this scan has tracked — and five names (TSM, NVDA, BE, CEG, SWKS) pushed back above RSI 55 after two straight scans where none did. But this reads as a bounce inside a still-damaged complex, not a reversal: several of today's biggest gainers are still down double digits over the past three months ($ON -36.6%, $ARM -26.5%, $AMKR -26.3%, $QCOM -21.9%), and only $NVDA itself sits close to its 52-week high (-2.6%) while the rest of the cohort trades roughly a quarter below its own peak. $TLN remains the cut's only clean breakdown — below its 200-day average with a negative year-over-year return — though even it recovered 13.8 RSI points this scan. $CEG and $QCOM both climbed back barely above their 200-day line while staying flat-to-negative on the year, and $SWKS is now the cut's highest RSI (67.7) despite still being down slightly on the year with a badly negative alpha.
Data as-of the 2026-09-04 close (Friday's settled session) — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar this scan.
Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names — same 20-ticker cut and exclusion methodology as the prior scan (AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P/AIQ/SMH/SFTBY excluded from ai-infra.json; EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC/XLE/XOP/CMBT excluded from energy.json; SMH/SOXX excluded from semis.json as broad-basket duplicates). Prior scan: 2026-08-28-nvda-ecosystem.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A broad one-day bounce (100% of names higher) inside a quarter that's still deeply damaged for most of the cohort — real strength, but not yet a trend change |
| Leaders | $SWKS (RSI 67.7, the cut's highest print, up 19.8 points this scan); $CEG (66.7, up 12.3); $BE (63.1, up 16.8 on a 7.35% single-day gain) |
| Laggards | $AVGO (38.1, the only name to fall further this scan despite the broad bounce); $AMAT (39.8); $AMKR (41.3) |
| Key insight | $NVDA is just 2.6% off its 52-week high while the rest of the cut sits roughly a quarter below its own peak — the cleanest chart in a cohort that's still bouncing off a bruised three months |
What's Going On
Every one of the 20 names in this cut closed higher on the day, several by 4-7% — $MRVL (+7.05%), $BE (+7.35%), $CEG (+4.88%), $AMD (+4.69%), $INTC (+4.51%), $ASML (+4.17%), $AMAT (+4.31%). That reverses two straight scans in which no name in the cut closed above RSI 55; today five do — $TSM (56.8), $NVDA (60.4), $BE (63.1), $CEG (66.7), $SWKS (67.7).
Translate that pop against the last quarter and the picture is more mixed. Several of today's strongest single-day movers are still down double digits over three months: $ON is off 36.6% over that window, $ARM 26.5%, $AMKR 26.3%, $QCOM 21.9%, $MXL 22.5%, $AMAT 14.8%. The cut's typical distance from its own 52-week high runs roughly negative-high-20s to negative-30s (AVGO -27.6%, AMKR -50.5%, ON -44.9%, ARM -44.3%, MXL -51.1%), and $NVDA is the standout exception at just -2.6% off its high — the cleanest chart in the cohort even as most of its ecosystem trades a quarter down. That combination — a broad one-day pop riding on top of a bruised quarter — is the read to hold onto before calling this scan's bounce a trend change.
The long-trend check still separates the cut's one genuine breakdown from names that are simply having a rough quarter. $TLN is the only name both below its 200-day average (-11.5%) and negative on the year (-16.7%) — still a clean breakdown, though it recovered 13.8 RSI points this scan (32.4 to 46.2) and both of its long-trend numbers improved from two scans ago (-17.7%/-23.7%). $CEG and $QCOM, the other two names flagged as breakdowns for three straight scans, both climbed back barely above their 200-day line this scan — CEG to +0.9%, QCOM to +0.5% — even though their year-over-year returns stayed flat-to-negative (CEG -3.3%, QCOM +5.7% with a badly negative alpha of -13). Call that "recovering price, still-lagging trend" rather than a clean pass. $SWKS is the trickiest name in the cut: comfortably above its 200-day (+15.9%) with the cohort's highest RSI, yet still down slightly on the year (-0.8%) with an alpha of -19.5 — the same misleading-RSI signature flagged here for two scans running.
The remaining sixteen names — $AVGO, $AMAT, $AMKR, $TXN, $ON, $LSCC, $GEV, $MXL, $ARM, $ASML, $AMD, $MRVL, $INTC, $TSM, $NVDA, $BE — are all above their 200-day average (or, like $AVGO at -3.0%, essentially testing it from just below) with strongly positive year-over-year returns, several of them extreme: $MXL +303%, $INTC +289%, $MRVL +249%, $BE +361%, $AMD +195%. That's the deep-pullback-inside-an-intact-uptrend read that's held for the bulk of this cut for three scans running.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-28)
- Every name in the cut closed higher on the day — the first universal up-day this scan has tracked, reversing two consecutive scans of broad cooling.
- $SWKS posted the cut's largest RSI gain. RSI 47.9 → 67.7 (+19.8) on a 12.5% weekly gain — now the cut's highest print, though still flat-to-down on the year (-0.8%).
- $BE surged on the day's biggest single-name move. RSI 46.3 → 63.1 (+16.8), price up 7.35% on the day and 20.0% for the week.
- $TLN recovered the most of any name below its 200-day. RSI 32.4 → 46.2 (+13.8) — still the cut's only clean breakdown, but well off last scan's cut-low.
- $CEG and $QCOM both climbed back above their 200-day. CEG: RSI 54.4 → 66.7 (+12.3), vs-200-day -7.1% → +0.9%. QCOM: RSI 48.5 → 53.1 (+4.6), vs-200-day -2.2% → +0.5% — both remain flat-to-negative on the year despite the price recovery.
- $AVGO was the only name to fall further this scan, RSI 42.7 → 38.1 (-4.6), even as the rest of the cohort bounced — still +16.9% on the year.
- No name was above RSI 55 last scan; five are now — $TSM, $NVDA, $BE, $CEG, $SWKS.
- The oversold band emptied from seven names to one. $TLN, $ON, $GEV, $AMAT, $TXN, $AMKR, $LSCC were all in the 25-40 band two scans ago; only $AVGO (38.1) remains there now.
- No stale bars this scan — every name carries a fresh 2026-09-04 close.
- Universe unchanged. Same 20 tickers and exclusion methodology as the prior scan.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions — under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought. vs SMA20 is the price gap to the 20-day average; a fast move shows up as a large number in either direction. 1Y% and vs SMA200 are the two numbers to check before calling anything a breakdown or a trend change: a name trading above its 200-day average with a strongly positive year is in a deep pullback inside an intact trend, no matter how sharp today's single-day move looks — most of this cut fits that description. $TLN, trading below its 200-day with a negative year, is the one name actually under structural test. $CEG, $QCOM, and $SWKS are the trickiest reads this scan: all three now sit at or above their 200-day, but their year-over-year returns are still flat-to-negative with badly lagging alpha — a rising RSI or price recovering above a moving average doesn't erase that gap on its own. 3M% matters this scan specifically: several names posting today's biggest gains are still down double digits over the past quarter, which is the difference between a one-day bounce and a resumed uptrend.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 1D% | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | 52wkHi | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | $357.90 | 38.1 | $378.32 | -5.4% | +0.2% | -3.0% | -14.4% | -7.1% | +16.9% | -3.0% | -27.6% | 🟡 Only name to fall further, still intact |
| AMAT | $454.71 | 39.8 | $489.24 | -7.1% | +4.3% | -1.5% | -14.8% | +0.5% | +187.4% | +11.9% | -38.5% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| AMKR | $47.77 | 41.3 | $51.28 | -6.8% | +1.8% | 0.0% | -11.1% | -26.3% | +96.7% | -14.6% | -50.5% | 🟡 Below 200-day, still +97% 1Y |
| TXN | $258.44 | 41.5 | $266.56 | -3.0% | +1.8% | -0.1% | -6.9% | -9.3% | +38.0% | +8.0% | -22.6% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| ON | $74.38 | 41.9 | $76.45 | -2.7% | +1.0% | +2.5% | -3.3% | -36.6% | +54.8% | -5.1% | -44.9% | 🟡 Testing 200-day, still +55% 1Y |
| LSCC | $115.90 | 43.5 | $120.37 | -3.7% | +2.0% | +1.4% | -9.7% | -14.5% | +75.7% | +7.3% | -26.2% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| GEV | $941.95 | 44.6 | $971.98 | -3.1% | 0.0% | +3.3% | -7.5% | +0.9% | +57.3% | +6.3% | -21.2% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| MXL | $62.74 | 44.6 | $67.30 | -6.8% | +5.5% | +1.8% | -7.0% | -22.5% | +303.5% | +32.2% | -51.1% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| TLN | $317.00 | 46.2 | $322.49 | -1.7% | +3.8% | +7.1% | -3.9% | -13.1% | -16.7% | -11.5% | -29.8% | 🔴 Only clean breakdown, recovering |
| ARM | $252.09 | 48.0 | $253.34 | -0.5% | +3.9% | +5.5% | -8.2% | -26.5% | +86.1% | +24.9% | -44.3% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| ASML | $1,714.88 | 48.3 | $1,752.62 | -2.2% | +4.2% | +1.1% | +2.2% | +4.6% | +127.6% | +16.1% | -14.1% | 🟡 Mild pullback, intact |
| AMD | $477.57 | 49.7 | $475.20 | +0.5% | +4.7% | +2.6% | -0.9% | +2.4% | +195.2% | +40.1% | -18.3% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| MRVL | $223.55 | 51.1 | $224.58 | -0.5% | +7.1% | +3.2% | +5.9% | -15.2% | +248.8% | +47.3% | -32.2% | 🟡 Biggest 1D pop, still intact |
| INTC | $95.80 | 51.7 | $93.95 | +2.0% | +4.5% | +7.1% | -5.2% | -3.4% | +289.3% | +29.2% | -32.7% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| QCOM | $168.74 | 53.1 | $164.02 | +2.9% | +0.1% | +2.8% | +7.1% | -21.9% | +5.7% | +0.5% | -35.1% | 🔴 Back above 200-day, still flat 1Y |
| TSM | $428.91 | 56.8 | $419.94 | +2.1% | +2.9% | +2.6% | +3.6% | +3.3% | +82.4% | +15.0% | -10.5% | 🟡 Mild pullback, intact |
| NVDA | $230.36 | 60.4 | $220.08 | +4.7% | +0.8% | +5.9% | +5.1% | +12.3% | +34.2% | +17.1% | -2.6% | 🟢 Cleanest chart, near highs |
| BE | $252.87 | 63.1 | $218.54 | +15.7% | +7.4% | +20.0% | +7.9% | -4.1% | +360.5% | +32.2% | -28.0% | 🟢 Uptrend, thesis intact |
| CEG | $298.96 | 66.7 | $278.66 | +7.3% | +4.9% | +8.0% | +12.8% | +17.3% | -3.3% | +0.9% | -27.6% | 🔴 Back above 200-day, still flat 1Y |
| SWKS | $74.02 | 67.7 | $68.44 | +8.1% | +3.5% | +12.5% | +10.5% | +0.6% | -0.8% | +15.9% | -18.6% | 🔴 Cut's highest RSI, still flat 1Y |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
$AVGO (38.1) — the only name remaining in this band, down from seven names two scans ago ($TLN, $ON, $GEV, $AMAT, $TXN, $AMKR, $LSCC all sat here at the deepest point of the cooldown). $AVGO is also the only name in the entire cut to fall further this scan despite the broad bounce, though it remains up 16.9% on the year with price just 3.0% below its 200-day.
RSI 40+ (everyone else)
- Genuine breakdown (below 200-day, negative 1-year): $TLN — the cut's only remaining name that fails the long-trend check outright, though it recovered the most RSI of any name this scan.
- Recovering price, still-lagging trend: $CEG, $QCOM — both climbed back above their 200-day this scan but remain flat-to-negative on the year with badly lagging alpha.
- Flat 1-year despite the cut's highest RSI: $SWKS — comfortably above its 200-day, yet still slightly negative on the year with an alpha of -19.5.
- Deep pullback, long trend intact: $AMAT, $AMKR, $TXN, $ON, $LSCC, $GEV, $MXL, $ARM, $ASML, $AMD, $MRVL, $INTC, $TSM, $NVDA, $BE — fifteen names, the bulk of the cut, all above (or essentially at) their 200-day with strongly positive year-over-year returns.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 1Y% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $230.36 | <$189.74 (support shelf) | 60.4 | +34.2% | Just 2.6% off its 52-week high — the cleanest chart in the cohort |
| AVGO | $357.90 | <$344.95 (support shelf) | 38.1 | +16.9% | Only name still falling this scan; testing its 200-day from just below |
| MRVL | $223.55 | <$89.40 (support shelf, far below) | 51.1 | +248.8% | Today's biggest single-name pop (+7.1%), still 47% above its 200-day |
| BE | $252.87 | <$218.98 (support shelf) | 63.1 | +360.5% | Second-biggest 1D mover (+7.4%); thesis marked intact |
| TLN | $317.00 | No support shelf identified | 46.2 | -16.7% | The cut's only clean breakdown, though it recovered 13.8 RSI points this scan |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA, TSM, ASML, MRVL, BE | Above the 200-day, strongly positive year-over-year return, thesis marked intact where tracked |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | AMD, INTC, AMAT, LSCC, ARM, MXL, GEV | Deep pullback this scan but well above the 200-day with strong multi-year returns |
| 🔍 WATCH | AVGO, ON, AMKR, TXN | Testing or briefly below the 200-day line; positive year-over-year return keeps these out of the breakdown bucket, but confirm before entry |
| ⚠️ RECOVERING, STILL LAGGING | CEG, QCOM | Price climbed back above the 200-day this scan, but the year-over-year return and alpha are still flat-to-negative |
| ⚠️ FLAT-1Y, WEAK ALPHA | SWKS | Cut's highest RSI this scan but still slightly negative on the year with badly lagging alpha |
| ❌ AVOID / BREAKDOWN WATCH | TLN | Below the 200-day with a negative year-over-year return — the cut's one remaining genuine breakdown |
What To Watch Next
- $AVGO was the only name to fall further this scan while the rest of the cohort bounced — is this the start of a new laggard, or noise inside an otherwise broad rally?
- $TLN recovered 13.8 RSI points but remains the cut's only clean breakdown — does the bounce carry it back above its 200-day, or does it fade?
- $CEG and $QCOM both climbed back above their 200-day this scan while staying flat-to-negative on the year — does the price recovery pull the trend numbers up with it, or does the alpha catch down to the price again?
- Is today's universal up-day (100% of names higher, five now above RSI 55) the start of a new leg, or a one-day bounce inside a quarter that's still deeply negative for several names ($ON -36.6%, $ARM -26.5%, $AMKR -26.3%)?
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
- Prior scan for comparison: 2026-08-28-nvda-ecosystem.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.