NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
The cut split down its middle this week. The chip leg ran — $AMD +8.46%, $MXL +8.78%, $INTC +5.50%, $ARM +4.09% — while the power leg was taken apart in the same five sessions: $CEG -10.55%, $TLN -6.54%, $BE -3.67%, $GEV -1.77%. The oversold band, empty a week ago, reopened with two names in it and both are power. $CEG is the week's break: RSI 53.7 to 36.4, now 13.0% below its 200-day and down 21.07% on the year, with nothing on the desk's record naming a driver. Last week's open question closed: $SWKS cooled from an extreme RSI 83.4 to 64.7, and a dated item on the Qorvo merger advancing now sits in its news file.
Data as-of the 2026-09-18 close (Friday's settled session) — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar.
This is the same 20-ticker NVDA-adjacent cut and exclusion method as the prior scan: the broad-basket funds and the non-adjacent members of the three source lists are left out.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A two-speed week — chips led the tape while the power-demand leg sold off hard; the split is the whole story |
| Leaders | $AMD (RSI 65.4, +8.46% on the week, +20.02% on the month, 4.26% off its 52-week high); $MXL (60.8, +8.78%, +385.75% on the year); $INTC (61.7, +5.50%, +17.03% on the month) |
| Laggards | $CEG (36.4, -10.55% on the week, -21.07% on the year, 13.0% below its 200-day); $TLN (39.5, -6.54%, -29.61% on the year); $ON (42.6, -8.09%) |
| Key insight | The two names now in the oversold band are both power producers, and both fail the long test — the weakness is concentrated in the electricity leg, not in chips |
| Caveat | The $TLN news file was last pulled September 11 and predates this week's decline; the $CEG file was pulled September 17 and holds quote pages only. Neither absence is evidence there was no driver |
What's Going On
Chips carried the week and power paid for it. $AMD closed $559.82, up 8.46% on the week and 20.02% on the month, 14.1% above its 20-day and now only 4.26% below its 52-week high — the cut's best combination of momentum and proximity to highs. $MXL added 8.78% (8.17% of it on Friday alone) to $81.12, $INTC 5.50% to $108.60, and $ARM 4.09% to $275.61. $NVDA itself did nothing dramatic and did not need to: $222.27, up 1.82%, RSI 54.2, 12.0% above its 200-day with a 26.12% year — the steadiest chart in the cut, 6.03% off its high.
The power leg went the other way in the same week the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate a quarter point — the first increase in three years, announced Wednesday and explained by persistent inflation, with the 10-year Treasury yield back at 5.00% afterward (Yahoo Finance and CNBC, September 16). The Bank of England held the next day (CNBC, September 17). $CEG fell 10.55% to $254.71, $TLN 6.54% to $292.30, $BE 3.67% to $265.63 and $GEV 1.77% to $940.33. The coincidence of timing is on the record; a cause for any individual decline is not. The $CEG news file was pulled September 17 and returned quote and profile pages with nothing on the move; the $TLN file was last pulled September 11, before the decline; and the desk's event record holds no entry for either name in this window.
$CEG is the more serious of the two. A week ago it had just slipped below its 200-day by 3.6% with a -10.5% year; it is now 13.0% below that line with a -21.07% year and an alpha of -36.09. That is no longer a wobble in a recovering name — it is the second power producer in the cut to fail the long test outright. $TLN has failed it for four straight scans and keeps deteriorating: its year-over-year return has gone -16.7%, -22.0%, and now -29.61%, with the price 17.5% below its 200-day.
Last week's unexplained name resolved itself in two directions. $SWKS cooled from an extreme RSI of 83.4 to 64.7 and went nowhere on the week (+0.46%), leaving a +29.61% month and a price 17.5% above its 20-day; and its news file, pulled September 16, now carries a September 15 trade-press item attributing the run to the Qorvo merger advancing. That item comes from a low-grade aggregator and no filing corroborates it on the desk's record, so the driver is attributed and unconfirmed rather than established. $AVGO, meanwhile, remains the chip leg's one genuine laggard: $357.61, down 1.21% on the week, now 3.1% below its 200-day with a 3.55% year and an alpha of -11.46 — the only chip name in the cut that fails on both counts.
One more thing worth noting: Friday was a sharp reversal day inside the week. The equipment and analog names that lost the week bounced hard in the final session — $AMAT +6.51%, $AMKR +4.90%, $ARM +4.04%, $TXN +3.29%, $ASML +3.04%, $AVGO +2.97% — while $QCOM fell 5.82% and $BE 5.39% on the same day. A single session does not settle a week, but it does mean the weekly numbers below understate how the cut was trading into the close.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-11)
- $CEG broke. RSI 53.7 → 36.4 (-17.3), price $284.75 → $254.71, -10.55% on the week; year-over-year return worsened from -10.5% to -21.07% and the gap to its 200-day widened from -3.6% to -13.0%. No driver on the desk's record.
- $TLN deteriorated for a fourth straight scan. RSI 44.7 → 39.5, year-over-year return -22.0% → -29.61%, now 17.5% below its 200-day.
- The oversold band reopened with two power names. A week ago no name in the cut sat below RSI 40; now $CEG (36.4) and $TLN (39.5) do.
- $SWKS cooled off its extreme print. RSI 83.4 → 64.7 (-18.7), price $88.35 → $88.76, flat on the week (+0.46%) — and a dated Qorvo-merger item now sits in its news file, where last scan found nothing.
- $AMD extended into the cut's strongest chart. RSI 58.0 → 65.4, price $516.13 → $559.82, +8.46% on the week; now 4.26% off its 52-week high, from 11.7% a week ago.
- $MXL and $INTC both added mid-to-high single digits. MXL: RSI 56.4 → 60.8, $74.57 → $81.12. INTC: 57.5 → 61.7, $102.94 → $108.60.
- $QCOM gave back last week's surge. RSI 66.3 → 54.0, price $181.97 → $177.72, -2.34% on the week with -5.82% of it on Friday.
- $AVGO slipped further below its 200-day. From -2.2% to -3.1%; RSI 42.2 → 45.5, still the chip leg's one laggard.
- $ON and $LSCC both lost more than 7%. ON: RSI 49.0 → 42.6, -8.09%. LSCC: 49.7 → 43.4, -7.35%. Both still carry positive years.
- $NVDA firmed quietly. RSI 49.8 → 54.2, price $218.29 → $222.27, +1.82%.
- No stale bars this scan — every name carries a fresh 2026-09-18 close. Universe unchanged at 20 tickers.
How To Read The Board
RSI is a fourteen-session stretch gauge: under 30 oversold, over 70 overbought, over 80 extreme. The gap to the 20-day average shows how fast the recent move was. The one-year return and the distance to the 200-day average are what separate a pullback from a breakdown, and this week they sort the cut cleanly by leg. Fifteen of the twenty names sit above their 200-day with a positive year, and that group includes every name in the chip leg except $AVGO, $ON and $AMKR. $CEG and $TLN fail both tests and are the two genuine breakdowns. $AVGO fails the spirit of the test — barely positive on the year, negative alpha, below its 200-day. $ON and $AMKR sit below their 200-day but with strong years (+35.02% and +72.50%), which makes them deep pullbacks rather than broken names. Nothing in the chip leg looks structurally damaged this week; the damage is in electricity.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 1D% | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | 52wkHi | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | $254.71 | 36.4 | $277.89 | -8.3% | -3.1% | -10.6% | -7.1% | -21.1% | -13.0% | -38.3% | 🔴 Broke down this week, cause unknown |
| TLN | $292.30 | 39.5 | $303.01 | -3.5% | -0.3% | -6.5% | -9.3% | -29.6% | -17.5% | -35.2% | 🔴 Breakdown, fourth straight scan |
| ON | $69.98 | 42.6 | $72.22 | -3.1% | +2.5% | -8.1% | -8.6% | +35.0% | -11.9% | -48.1% | 🟡 Deep pullback below its 200-day |
| LSCC | $110.96 | 43.4 | $113.91 | -2.6% | +2.2% | -7.4% | -5.7% | +54.9% | +0.9% | -29.3% | 🟡 Sharp week, sitting on its 200-day |
| AMAT | $444.57 | 43.8 | $454.23 | -2.1% | +6.5% | -2.6% | -10.4% | +134.3% | +6.8% | -39.9% | 🟡 Deep pullback, trend intact |
| AVGO | $357.61 | 45.5 | $359.32 | -0.5% | +3.0% | -1.2% | -1.3% | +3.6% | -3.1% | -27.8% | 🔴 Chip leg's laggard, below its 200-day |
| ASML | $1,679.28 | 48.5 | $1,689.36 | -0.6% | +3.0% | -1.1% | -4.1% | +81.0% | +11.2% | -16.0% | 🟡 Mild pullback, trend intact |
| GEV | $940.33 | 48.7 | $929.94 | +1.1% | +1.7% | -1.8% | -4.8% | +53.9% | +4.3% | -21.4% | 🟡 Power name holding its 200-day |
| AMKR | $50.30 | 49.2 | $48.56 | +3.6% | +4.9% | -2.8% | -1.2% | +72.5% | -11.5% | -48.0% | 🟡 Below its 200-day, strong year |
| TXN | $266.64 | 51.1 | $260.60 | +2.3% | +3.3% | -0.8% | -0.3% | +46.8% | +9.3% | -20.2% | 🟡 Flat week, trend intact |
| QCOM | $177.72 | 54.0 | $172.27 | +3.2% | -5.8% | -2.3% | +9.8% | +5.7% | +5.4% | -31.6% | 🟡 Gave back last week's surge |
| NVDA | $222.27 | 54.2 | $218.88 | +1.5% | +1.3% | +1.8% | +2.2% | +26.1% | +12.0% | -6.0% | 🟢 Steadiest chart, near its high |
| TSM | $434.67 | 56.9 | $422.49 | +2.9% | +1.0% | +0.3% | +5.5% | +61.8% | +14.6% | -9.3% | 🟢 Quiet uptrend |
| BE | $265.63 | 57.5 | $240.45 | +10.5% | -5.4% | -3.7% | +28.6% | +228.1% | +33.6% | -24.4% | 🟡 Month still strong, week turned |
| ARM | $275.61 | 57.7 | $249.27 | +10.6% | +4.0% | +4.1% | +10.5% | +88.1% | +33.0% | -39.1% | 🟢 Extended above its 20-day, trend intact |
| MRVL | $244.25 | 58.0 | $227.48 | +7.4% | +1.5% | +3.5% | +2.9% | +229.0% | +54.2% | -26.0% | 🟢 Uptrend intact |
| MXL | $81.12 | 60.8 | $66.16 | +22.6% | +8.2% | +8.8% | +22.1% | +385.8% | +62.3% | -36.8% | 🟢 Best week in the cut, very extended |
| INTC | $108.60 | 61.7 | $95.87 | +13.3% | -0.2% | +5.5% | +17.0% | +255.3% | +40.8% | -23.7% | 🟢 Uptrend, extended |
| SWKS | $88.76 | 64.7 | $75.52 | +17.5% | -2.8% | +0.5% | +29.6% | +15.2% | +36.9% | -3.8% | 🟠 Cooled from extreme, still stretched |
| AMD | $559.82 | 65.4 | $490.75 | +14.1% | +2.7% | +8.5% | +20.0% | +254.5% | +57.9% | -4.3% | 🟢 Strongest chart in the cut |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
$CEG (36.4) and $TLN (39.5) — both power producers, both failing the long test. $CEG entered the band this week after a 10.55% decline; $TLN has been deteriorating for four scans. Neither has a confirmed floor and neither has an established driver. A week ago this band was empty.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+)
- Failing the long test: $AVGO — 3.1% below its 200-day with a 3.55% year and negative alpha, the chip leg's only structurally weak name.
- Below the 200-day but with strong years: $ON (+35.02%) and $AMKR (+72.50%) — deep pullbacks in names that have worked, not breakdowns; each is more than 47% off its 52-week high.
- Pullback, trend intact: $LSCC, $AMAT, $ASML, $GEV, $TXN, $QCOM — all above (or effectively at) their 200-day with strong years, all below or near their 20-day.
- Working: $NVDA, $TSM, $MRVL, $ARM — above both averages with positive years; $NVDA is the least extended of the four.
- Extended and running: $MXL (22.6% above its 20-day), $INTC (13.3%), $AMD (14.1%), $SWKS (17.5%), $BE (10.5%). These are the names where the risk this week is the entry price, not the trend.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 1Y% | Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $222.27 | $218.88 (its 20-day) down to $189.87 (a prior support shelf) | 54.2 | +26.1% | The least extended working chart in the cut; 6.03% off its high with the 20-day just underneath |
| AMAT | $444.57 | $444–$454 (its 20-day) with $334.37 the shelf below | 43.8 | +134.3% | Down 10.4% on the month but 6.8% above its 200-day; bounced 6.51% on Friday |
| ASML | $1,679.28 | $1,689.36 (its 20-day) down to $1,480.58 (a prior shelf) | 48.5 | +81.0% | Mild pullback, 11.2% above its 200-day; the 20-day is the nearest reclaim |
| ON | $69.98 | $61.50 (a prior support shelf) | 42.6 | +35.0% | Below its 200-day after an 8.09% week; the shelf, not the RSI, is the level that matters |
| CEG | $254.71 | No support shelf identified | 36.4 | -21.1% | Fresh breakdown with no established cause and no confirmed floor — a watch item, not an entry |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA, TSM, MRVL, ARM | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Above both averages with positive years; $NVDA and $TSM are the least stretched |
| AMAT, ASML, TXN, LSCC, GEV | 🟡 | 📈 Accumulate | Pullbacks inside intact trends — above the 200-day with strong years, trading below their 20-day |
| AMD, MXL, INTC, SWKS, BE | 🟢 | ⚠️ Don't chase | Trends are intact but all five sit 10% to 23% above their 20-day; this is a price problem, not a thesis problem |
| ON, AMKR, QCOM | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Below or barely above the 200-day with strong-to-modest years; wait for the shelf, not the bounce |
| AVGO | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Below its 200-day with a 3.55% year and negative alpha — the chip leg's laggard for four straight scans |
| CEG, TLN | 🔴 | ❌ Avoid | Both fail the long test; $CEG broke this week and $TLN has deteriorated for four scans, neither with an established cause |
What To Watch Next
- $CEG lost 10.55% in the week the Fed raised rates, and nothing on the desk's record names a driver for the move. Does a cause surface, and does the 200-day at 13.0% overhead become a ceiling?
- The power leg is now the cut's weak half for the first time since this scan started tracking it. Whether that is rate-driven or demand-driven matters for every AI-electricity thesis attached to these names — and neither read is established yet.
- $MXL, $AMD, $INTC and $SWKS all sit more than 13% above their 20-day averages. The question for each is whether the 20-day gets reclaimed as support on the next pullback or breaks.
- $AVGO has now spent four scans as the chip laggard, and this week it fell further below its 200-day. Does the rest of the chip leg's strength eventually pull it up, or is this a name the group has left behind?
- Friday's reversal — equipment and analog names up 3% to 6.5% while $QCOM fell 5.82% — sets up the first question of next week: does the bounce in the losers hold, or was it expiry-day mechanics?
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-18 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
- Fed rate increase and the 10-year yield: 2026-09-16-yahoofinance-fed-hikes-main-interest-rate-by-quarter-point-citing-stubbor-e-135731525-html, 2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844, 2026-09-16-cnbc-10-year-treasury-yield-climbs-back-to-5-after-fed-hikes-rate-108363494.
- Bank of England hold: 2026-09-17-cnbc-bank-of-england-defies-fed-s-rate-hike-lead-leaving-rates-un-108363610.
- $SWKS Qorvo-merger attribution (trade press, uncorroborated by any filing on the desk's record): latest (pulled 2026-09-16, item dated 2026-09-15).
- News checks with nothing on this week's move: latest (pulled 2026-09-17),
TLN(pulled 2026-09-11, predates the move),LSCC(pulled 2026-09-17),MXL(pulled 2026-09-18),BE(pulled 2026-09-18),AMD(pulled 2026-09-06),INTC(pulled 2026-09-01),ON(pulled 2026-07-14, predates the move). Event recordresearch/stock-events/checked for the 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-18 window: only LAES, FPS and ALMU earnings are filed, none in this cut. - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-11-nvda-ecosystem.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.