NVDA Ecosystem Scan

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NVDA Ecosystem Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 93 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-10-02-nvda-ecosystem.md

The chip leg gave back the week to October 9 while power and fuel took it: 16 of 18 semiconductor names fell over five sessions ($ARM -13.4%, $AMKR -12.32%, $INTC -12.26%, $SWKS -10.21%) and the chip funds cooled from the high 60s to the low 50s on RSI, while 13 of 16 energy names rose, led by $TLN (+18.02%) and $CEG (+15.76%). No chip name has a negative year, and the only new 200-day loss was $ON's; $SMH and $SOXX remain about 20% above theirs. The extended names are now software, storage and fuel: $P (RSI 81.2), $PLTR (76.3), $ECO and $CVI.

Data as of the 2026-10-09 settled close; 38 unique tickers across the semiconductor, AI-infrastructure and energy lists (names in two lists appear once).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Rotation inside the stack: chips pulled back inside intact trends, power and fuel rose, AI software and storage stretched
Leaders $P (extreme extension, near its high); $PLTR (extended, at its high); $ECO and $CVI (extended fuel names); $TLN and $CEG (sharp power rebounds on negative years)
Laggards $EOSE (oversold, long trend broken); $ARM, $INTC, $AMKR, $SWKS (double-digit weekly declines); $NEE, $FSLR, $ENPH (below their 200-day averages on negative years)
Key insight The chip selloff is a pullback, not a breakdown: 16 of 18 semis fell, yet only $AMKR, $ON and $AVGO sit below their 200-day averages, and every chip name has a positive year
Caveat Thursday's chip leg has a receipt (an October 8 report that OpenAI's annualized revenue was about $50 billion, not the $68 to $70 billion widely cited); Friday's moves in $EOSE, $SWKS, $PLTR and $P have none on file

What's Going On

Chips took the week's damage. $SMH closed at $603.33 and RSI 53.0, -4.32% on the week, and $SOXX at RSI 51.7, -5.01%; a week ago both sat in the high 60s (68.6 and 66.6). Both remain 19.2% and 21% above their 200-day averages on years of +74.77% and +92.77%. Thursday's leg has a cause on file: the October 8 market brief records that the AI-hardware cohort sold as one after the Financial Times reported, and CNBC confirmed, that OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was about $50 billion rather than the $68 billion to $70 billion widely cited; the semiconductor fund fell 2.84% that day and $NVDA 2.94%. The rest of the week's chip slide has no single receipt.

The deepest chip declines are pullbacks in strong years. $ARM fell 13.4% to RSI 43.9; it is 21% above its 200-day on a +56.03% year but 41.18% below its 52-week high, and the desk's thesis rating is intact but priced. A Benzinga piece dated October 8 had Arm down more than 3% in Thursday premarket after a 2.71% Wednesday decline, with Morgan Stanley holding an Equal-weight rating. $INTC fell 12.26% (RSI 43.4) and is still 26.1% above its 200-day on a +176.98% year; the October 5 brief tied that day's 2.63% drop to Elon Musk saying talks with TSMC on his Terafab chip project were ongoing (MarketWatch). $SWKS lost 5.45% on Friday and 10.21% on the week (RSI 41.3, 11.2% below its 20-day, 15.3% above its 200-day, +3.68% year); its news was last pulled September 16, so no cause is on file. $AMKR (-12.32%, RSI 42.7) is the weak one: 14.7% below its 200-day ($57.58) despite a +60.37% year, a long trend under test. $NVDA (RSI 53.0, -2.0% on the week) is 13.4% above its 200-day on a +19.06% year and 5.79% below its high. $AVGO, one of two chip names up on the week (+1.8%), is still 1.8% below its 200-day ($368.28); its first close back above it, noted in the October 6 brief, did not hold.

Power and fuel carried the other side. $CEG gained 15.76% on the week; the October 6 brief ties its 12.25% Tuesday to a Google power agreement that MarketWatch says equals a new reactor's output. $TLN gained 18.02% (RSI 69.4), including 12.43% on Tuesday that the same brief left unestablished because only aggregator pages offered causes, and they disagree. Both are now above their 200-day averages (4.2% and 7.6%) but down 22.22% and 14.83% on the year: repairing trends, not intact ones. Fuel names rose together: $XLE (+3.6%, RSI 61.5, 1.65% below its high), $XOP, $BP and $CRAK, with $ECO (+6.68%, RSI 73.7) and $CVI (+5.82%, 73.6) extended; the week included an October 8 oil jump that CNBC tied to stepped-up Iranian tanker attacks and a hurricane threat to Gulf production. $EOSE is the broken exception at $2.52: -9.03% on Friday, -21.5% on the week, RSI 28.7, 64.7% below its 200-day on a -82.79% year. Two trader-news pages dated October 8 tie that day's slide to a securities-litigation investigation into the company; Friday's drop has no dated item.

At the top, $P (Everpure, formerly Pure Storage) closed at RSI 81.2, +10.24% on the week and +59.17% over 30 days, 91.5% above its 200-day and 1.63% below its high; its news was last pulled September 30. $PLTR gained 5.17% on Friday and 10.75% on the week to RSI 76.3, 0.25% below its high; its year is +12.71% with slightly negative alpha, and the October 8 brief found nothing in its news on that day's government-compute rally.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-10-02)

  • Extended band shrank and moved: 4 of 38 at RSI 70 or higher ($P, $PLTR, $ECO, $CVI), from 7 a week ago. $MXL, $TSM, $TXN and $AMD left it; $PLTR entered; $P went from extended to extreme.
  • Oversold band reopened: $EOSE at RSI 28.7; none a week ago.
  • Breadth: below the 20-day, 9 of 38 (10 a week ago); below the 200-day, 7 of 38 (9 a week ago); up on the week, 19 of 38, split 2 of 18 in semis, 6 of 11 in AI infrastructure and 13 of 16 in energy.
  • Long-trend changes: $ON slipped below its 200-day (intact a week ago, now under test). $CEG, $TLN and $TAC moved above their 200-day averages on negative years (broken a week ago, now repairing).
  • Universe unchanged: the same 38 tickers as the October 2 edition.

How To Read The Board

RSI under 30 is oversold, 70 and over extended, 80 and over extreme. The one-year return and the distance to the 200-day separate a pullback from a breakdown: above the 200-day on a positive year is intact; one test failed is under test or repairing; both failed is broken. A name more than 10% above its 20-day is treated as stretched even under RSI 70. The group column shows the source list; $NVDA, $ARM, $ASML, $MRVL, $TSM and $SMH sit in two lists and $TAC in both AI infrastructure and energy. This is price evidence, not a setup, with no fundamental or insider layer.

Price Table

Tape figures below are live-bound to the desk summaries; the as-of date is shown per row.

Stock Group Price ($) RSI SMA20 ($) vs SMA20 (%) 7D (%) 30D (%) 1Y (%) vs SMA200 (%) As of Signal
EOSE energy 2.52 28.7 3.42 -26.3 -21.5 -39.28 -82.79 -64.7 2026-10-09 🔴 Long trend broken
FSLR energy 177.82 39.7 185.23 -4 1.84 -12.45 -24.11 -19.9 2026-10-09 🔴 Long trend broken
ENPH energy 32.81 40.3 33.78 -2.9 -1.97 -10.65 -10.62 -20.5 2026-10-09 🔴 Long trend broken
NEE energy 77.38 40.5 77.93 -0.7 0.72 -6.38 -7.56 -11.4 2026-10-09 🔴 Long trend broken
SWKS semis 76.35 41.3 85.94 -11.2 -10.21 -0.25 3.68 15.3 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
AMKR semis 49.12 42.7 51.67 -4.9 -12.32 -4.34 60.37 -14.7 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend
INTC semis 104.7 43.4 113.83 -8 -12.26 -1.45 176.98 26.1 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
ARM semis/ai-infra 266.28 43.9 288.93 -7.8 -13.4 0.78 56.03 21 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
QCOM semis 175.5 44.4 185.91 -5.6 -5.07 -0.51 5.94 3.6 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
ON semis 77.53 49.6 76.23 1.7 -8.67 9.23 55.15 -4.5 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend
AVGO semis 361.54 50.1 355.25 1.8 1.8 -0.78 4.79 -1.8 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend
SOXX semis 559.4 51.7 556.68 0.5 -5.01 5.15 92.77 21 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
TSM semis/ai-infra 453.31 52.4 450.47 0.6 -4.12 4.12 51.16 15.7 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
ASML semis/ai-infra 1780.34 52.4 1744.55 2.1 -4.66 2.94 81.57 14 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
LSCC semis 126.05 52.9 121.89 3.4 -5.93 9.18 69.01 10.8 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
NVDA semis/ai-infra 229.28 53 226.73 1.1 -2 2.51 19.06 13.4 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
SMH semis/ai-infra 603.33 53 597.06 1.1 -4.32 5.06 75.32 19.2 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
BE energy 280.5 54 276.88 1.3 -2.99 4.17 223.72 32 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
AMAT semis 507.03 54.6 484.12 4.7 -6.11 8.14 130.15 16.7 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
TXN semis 283.74 55.7 277.21 2.4 -3.42 8.47 58.55 12.7 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
AMD semis 608.1 57.2 598.07 1.7 -4.07 16.7 161.11 57.8 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
MXL semis 96.16 57.3 88.88 8.2 -9.22 34.47 502.51 72.5 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
GEV energy 1004.73 58.1 958.41 4.8 1.62 5.65 58.41 8.5 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
XOP energy 191.52 58.2 186.96 2.4 3.56 -1.79 46.2 15.9 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
AIQ ai-infra 66.6 58.7 65.42 1.8 0.56 3.88 29.9 15.3 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
AMZN ai-infra 262.43 59 252.02 4.1 4.34 3.97 15.23 8.4 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
BP energy 46.25 60.6 44.78 3.3 3.26 1.25 34.88 10.4 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
MRVL semis/ai-infra 275.28 61.5 258.47 6.5 1.1 17.14 203.57 60.2 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
XLE energy 65.08 61.5 63.3 2.8 3.6 -0.35 48.31 14.1 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
CEG energy 298.07 62.1 268.1 11.2 15.76 1.42 -22.22 4.2 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend, stretched
CRAK energy 66.29 62.8 64.83 2.3 3.19 -0.02 81.22 31.4 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
TAC ai-infra/energy 13.13 63.9 12.2 7.6 6.32 6.32 -15.83 1.7 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend
CMBT energy 20.6 67.3 19.65 4.8 3.78 6.46 126.87 39.1 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
TLN energy 378.57 69.4 316.86 19.5 18.02 18.43 -14.83 7.6 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend, stretched
CVI energy 58.02 73.6 53.62 8.2 5.82 21.56 61.57 75.5 2026-10-09 🟠 Extended
ECO energy 93.11 73.7 83.86 11 6.68 29.91 218.32 70.6 2026-10-09 🟠 Extended
PLTR ai-infra 209.05 76.3 187 11.8 10.75 23.31 12.71 37.2 2026-10-09 🟠 Extended
P ai-infra 154.49 81.2 124.59 24 10.24 59.17 65.02 91.5 2026-10-09 🔴 Extreme extension

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI under 25)

None this week.

Oversold (RSI 25 to 40)

$EOSE, $FSLR

Long-trend status: intact (above the 200-day, positive year) none; under test or repairing (one long test failed) none; broken (below the 200-day, negative year) $EOSE, $FSLR.

Neutral to strong (RSI 40 and up)

Entry Zones

Zones are conditions (a level plus a confirmation), not orders. Levels are live-bound to the desk summaries.

Stock Zone ($) Conditions
SWKS 69.81 (shelf) to 85.94 (20-day) Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, a close under the shelf voids it
INTC Up to 113.83 (20-day) Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, the 200-day (83.03) is the floor
ARM Up to 288.93 (20-day) Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, the 200-day (220.11) is the floor
QCOM 170.84 (shelf) to 185.91 (20-day) Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, a close under the shelf voids it
CEG Wait for a pullback toward 268.1 (20-day) Stretched on a negative year (a repair, not an intact trend); wait for a rest toward the 20-day that holds above the 200-day
TLN Wait for a pullback toward 316.86 (20-day) Stretched on a negative year (a repair, not an intact trend); wait for a rest toward the 20-day that holds above the 200-day
CVI Wait for a pullback toward 53.62 (20-day) Stretched; no entry while extended above the 20-day
ECO Wait for a pullback toward 83.86 (20-day) Stretched; no entry while extended above the 20-day
PLTR Wait for a pullback toward 187 (20-day) Stretched; no entry while extended above the 20-day
P Wait for a pullback toward 124.59 (20-day) Stretched; no entry while extended above the 20-day
EOSE No entry zone Oversold with the long trend broken; a watch item, not a setup
FSLR No entry zone Oversold with the long trend broken; a watch item, not a setup

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
SWKS 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day 📈 Accumulate Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim
INTC 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day 📈 Accumulate Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim
ARM 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day 📈 Accumulate Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim
QCOM 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day 📈 Accumulate Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim
SOXX 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
TSM 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
ASML 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
LSCC 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
NVDA 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
SMH 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
BE 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
AMAT 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
TXN 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
AMD 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
MXL 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
GEV 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
XOP 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
AIQ 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
AMZN 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
BP 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
MRVL 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
XLE 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
CRAK 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
CMBT 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
AMKR 🟡 Mixed long trend 🔍 Watch Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line
ON 🟡 Mixed long trend 🔍 Watch Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line
AVGO 🟡 Mixed long trend 🔍 Watch Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line
TAC 🟡 Mixed long trend 🔍 Watch Above the 200-day on a negative year: a repair, not yet an intact trend
CEG 🟡 Mixed long trend, stretched ⚠️ Don't chase More than 10% above its 20-day with only one long test passed; wait for a rest
TLN 🟡 Mixed long trend, stretched ⚠️ Don't chase More than 10% above its 20-day with only one long test passed; wait for a rest
CVI 🟠 Extended ⚠️ Don't chase RSI 70 or higher; wait for a rest toward the 20-day
ECO 🟠 Extended ⚠️ Don't chase RSI 70 or higher; wait for a rest toward the 20-day
PLTR 🟠 Extended ⚠️ Don't chase RSI 70 or higher; wait for a rest toward the 20-day
P 🔴 Extreme extension ⚠️ Don't chase RSI 70 or higher; wait for a rest toward the 20-day
EOSE 🔴 Long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed
FSLR 🔴 Long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed
ENPH 🔴 Long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed
NEE 🔴 Long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed

What To Watch Next

  • Chip funds: $SMH holding its 20-day ($597.06) keeps the week a pause inside a strong year; a slide toward its support shelf ($575.20) would deepen the pullback.
  • $TSM and $ASML report into the chip pullback: ASML is scheduled for October 14 and TSMC for October 15.
  • $ARM and $INTC: both are below their 20-day averages in strong years; a reclaim of the 20-day ($288.93 and $113.83) is the confirmation of a flag rather than a top.
  • $AMKR and $ON: the 200-day averages ($57.58 and $81.14) are the lines; Amkor is scheduled to report on October 26.
  • $AVGO: a second attempt above its 200-day ($368.28).
  • $CEG and $TLN: whether a week of gains on hyperscaler power news turns into closes that hold above the 200-day; neither has a positive year yet.
  • $P and $PLTR at or near their highs with RSI over 75: the first close below the 20-day marks the end of the run; no driver is on file for either.
  • $EOSE: no floor identified; a broken trend with litigation headlines on file is not a setup.

Sources

10 events