NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
The chip leg gave back the week to October 9 while power and fuel took it: 16 of 18 semiconductor names fell over five sessions ($ARM -13.4%, $AMKR -12.32%, $INTC -12.26%, $SWKS -10.21%) and the chip funds cooled from the high 60s to the low 50s on RSI, while 13 of 16 energy names rose, led by $TLN (+18.02%) and $CEG (+15.76%). No chip name has a negative year, and the only new 200-day loss was $ON's; $SMH and $SOXX remain about 20% above theirs. The extended names are now software, storage and fuel: $P (RSI 81.2), $PLTR (76.3), $ECO and $CVI.
Data as of the 2026-10-09 settled close; 38 unique tickers across the semiconductor, AI-infrastructure and energy lists (names in two lists appear once).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Rotation inside the stack: chips pulled back inside intact trends, power and fuel rose, AI software and storage stretched |
| Leaders | $P (extreme extension, near its high); $PLTR (extended, at its high); $ECO and $CVI (extended fuel names); $TLN and $CEG (sharp power rebounds on negative years) |
| Laggards | $EOSE (oversold, long trend broken); $ARM, $INTC, $AMKR, $SWKS (double-digit weekly declines); $NEE, $FSLR, $ENPH (below their 200-day averages on negative years) |
| Key insight | The chip selloff is a pullback, not a breakdown: 16 of 18 semis fell, yet only $AMKR, $ON and $AVGO sit below their 200-day averages, and every chip name has a positive year |
| Caveat | Thursday's chip leg has a receipt (an October 8 report that OpenAI's annualized revenue was about $50 billion, not the $68 to $70 billion widely cited); Friday's moves in $EOSE, $SWKS, $PLTR and $P have none on file |
What's Going On
Chips took the week's damage. $SMH closed at $603.33 and RSI 53.0, -4.32% on the week, and $SOXX at RSI 51.7, -5.01%; a week ago both sat in the high 60s (68.6 and 66.6). Both remain 19.2% and 21% above their 200-day averages on years of +74.77% and +92.77%. Thursday's leg has a cause on file: the October 8 market brief records that the AI-hardware cohort sold as one after the Financial Times reported, and CNBC confirmed, that OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was about $50 billion rather than the $68 billion to $70 billion widely cited; the semiconductor fund fell 2.84% that day and $NVDA 2.94%. The rest of the week's chip slide has no single receipt.
The deepest chip declines are pullbacks in strong years. $ARM fell 13.4% to RSI 43.9; it is 21% above its 200-day on a +56.03% year but 41.18% below its 52-week high, and the desk's thesis rating is intact but priced. A Benzinga piece dated October 8 had Arm down more than 3% in Thursday premarket after a 2.71% Wednesday decline, with Morgan Stanley holding an Equal-weight rating. $INTC fell 12.26% (RSI 43.4) and is still 26.1% above its 200-day on a +176.98% year; the October 5 brief tied that day's 2.63% drop to Elon Musk saying talks with TSMC on his Terafab chip project were ongoing (MarketWatch). $SWKS lost 5.45% on Friday and 10.21% on the week (RSI 41.3, 11.2% below its 20-day, 15.3% above its 200-day, +3.68% year); its news was last pulled September 16, so no cause is on file. $AMKR (-12.32%, RSI 42.7) is the weak one: 14.7% below its 200-day ($57.58) despite a +60.37% year, a long trend under test. $NVDA (RSI 53.0, -2.0% on the week) is 13.4% above its 200-day on a +19.06% year and 5.79% below its high. $AVGO, one of two chip names up on the week (+1.8%), is still 1.8% below its 200-day ($368.28); its first close back above it, noted in the October 6 brief, did not hold.
Power and fuel carried the other side. $CEG gained 15.76% on the week; the October 6 brief ties its 12.25% Tuesday to a Google power agreement that MarketWatch says equals a new reactor's output. $TLN gained 18.02% (RSI 69.4), including 12.43% on Tuesday that the same brief left unestablished because only aggregator pages offered causes, and they disagree. Both are now above their 200-day averages (4.2% and 7.6%) but down 22.22% and 14.83% on the year: repairing trends, not intact ones. Fuel names rose together: $XLE (+3.6%, RSI 61.5, 1.65% below its high), $XOP, $BP and $CRAK, with $ECO (+6.68%, RSI 73.7) and $CVI (+5.82%, 73.6) extended; the week included an October 8 oil jump that CNBC tied to stepped-up Iranian tanker attacks and a hurricane threat to Gulf production. $EOSE is the broken exception at $2.52: -9.03% on Friday, -21.5% on the week, RSI 28.7, 64.7% below its 200-day on a -82.79% year. Two trader-news pages dated October 8 tie that day's slide to a securities-litigation investigation into the company; Friday's drop has no dated item.
At the top, $P (Everpure, formerly Pure Storage) closed at RSI 81.2, +10.24% on the week and +59.17% over 30 days, 91.5% above its 200-day and 1.63% below its high; its news was last pulled September 30. $PLTR gained 5.17% on Friday and 10.75% on the week to RSI 76.3, 0.25% below its high; its year is +12.71% with slightly negative alpha, and the October 8 brief found nothing in its news on that day's government-compute rally.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-10-02)
- Extended band shrank and moved: 4 of 38 at RSI 70 or higher ($P, $PLTR, $ECO, $CVI), from 7 a week ago. $MXL, $TSM, $TXN and $AMD left it; $PLTR entered; $P went from extended to extreme.
- Oversold band reopened: $EOSE at RSI 28.7; none a week ago.
- Breadth: below the 20-day, 9 of 38 (10 a week ago); below the 200-day, 7 of 38 (9 a week ago); up on the week, 19 of 38, split 2 of 18 in semis, 6 of 11 in AI infrastructure and 13 of 16 in energy.
- Long-trend changes: $ON slipped below its 200-day (intact a week ago, now under test). $CEG, $TLN and $TAC moved above their 200-day averages on negative years (broken a week ago, now repairing).
- Universe unchanged: the same 38 tickers as the October 2 edition.
How To Read The Board
RSI under 30 is oversold, 70 and over extended, 80 and over extreme. The one-year return and the distance to the 200-day separate a pullback from a breakdown: above the 200-day on a positive year is intact; one test failed is under test or repairing; both failed is broken. A name more than 10% above its 20-day is treated as stretched even under RSI 70. The group column shows the source list; $NVDA, $ARM, $ASML, $MRVL, $TSM and $SMH sit in two lists and $TAC in both AI infrastructure and energy. This is price evidence, not a setup, with no fundamental or insider layer.
Price Table
Tape figures below are live-bound to the desk summaries; the as-of date is shown per row.
| Stock | Group | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | As of | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EOSE | energy | 2.52 | 28.7 | 3.42 | -26.3 | -21.5 | -39.28 | -82.79 | -64.7 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| FSLR | energy | 177.82 | 39.7 | 185.23 | -4 | 1.84 | -12.45 | -24.11 | -19.9 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| ENPH | energy | 32.81 | 40.3 | 33.78 | -2.9 | -1.97 | -10.65 | -10.62 | -20.5 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| NEE | energy | 77.38 | 40.5 | 77.93 | -0.7 | 0.72 | -6.38 | -7.56 | -11.4 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| SWKS | semis | 76.35 | 41.3 | 85.94 | -11.2 | -10.21 | -0.25 | 3.68 | 15.3 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day |
| AMKR | semis | 49.12 | 42.7 | 51.67 | -4.9 | -12.32 | -4.34 | 60.37 | -14.7 | 2026-10-09 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| INTC | semis | 104.7 | 43.4 | 113.83 | -8 | -12.26 | -1.45 | 176.98 | 26.1 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day |
| ARM | semis/ai-infra | 266.28 | 43.9 | 288.93 | -7.8 | -13.4 | 0.78 | 56.03 | 21 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day |
| QCOM | semis | 175.5 | 44.4 | 185.91 | -5.6 | -5.07 | -0.51 | 5.94 | 3.6 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day |
| ON | semis | 77.53 | 49.6 | 76.23 | 1.7 | -8.67 | 9.23 | 55.15 | -4.5 | 2026-10-09 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| AVGO | semis | 361.54 | 50.1 | 355.25 | 1.8 | 1.8 | -0.78 | 4.79 | -1.8 | 2026-10-09 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| SOXX | semis | 559.4 | 51.7 | 556.68 | 0.5 | -5.01 | 5.15 | 92.77 | 21 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| TSM | semis/ai-infra | 453.31 | 52.4 | 450.47 | 0.6 | -4.12 | 4.12 | 51.16 | 15.7 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| ASML | semis/ai-infra | 1780.34 | 52.4 | 1744.55 | 2.1 | -4.66 | 2.94 | 81.57 | 14 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| LSCC | semis | 126.05 | 52.9 | 121.89 | 3.4 | -5.93 | 9.18 | 69.01 | 10.8 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| NVDA | semis/ai-infra | 229.28 | 53 | 226.73 | 1.1 | -2 | 2.51 | 19.06 | 13.4 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| SMH | semis/ai-infra | 603.33 | 53 | 597.06 | 1.1 | -4.32 | 5.06 | 75.32 | 19.2 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| BE | energy | 280.5 | 54 | 276.88 | 1.3 | -2.99 | 4.17 | 223.72 | 32 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| AMAT | semis | 507.03 | 54.6 | 484.12 | 4.7 | -6.11 | 8.14 | 130.15 | 16.7 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| TXN | semis | 283.74 | 55.7 | 277.21 | 2.4 | -3.42 | 8.47 | 58.55 | 12.7 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| AMD | semis | 608.1 | 57.2 | 598.07 | 1.7 | -4.07 | 16.7 | 161.11 | 57.8 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| MXL | semis | 96.16 | 57.3 | 88.88 | 8.2 | -9.22 | 34.47 | 502.51 | 72.5 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| GEV | energy | 1004.73 | 58.1 | 958.41 | 4.8 | 1.62 | 5.65 | 58.41 | 8.5 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| XOP | energy | 191.52 | 58.2 | 186.96 | 2.4 | 3.56 | -1.79 | 46.2 | 15.9 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| AIQ | ai-infra | 66.6 | 58.7 | 65.42 | 1.8 | 0.56 | 3.88 | 29.9 | 15.3 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| AMZN | ai-infra | 262.43 | 59 | 252.02 | 4.1 | 4.34 | 3.97 | 15.23 | 8.4 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| BP | energy | 46.25 | 60.6 | 44.78 | 3.3 | 3.26 | 1.25 | 34.88 | 10.4 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| MRVL | semis/ai-infra | 275.28 | 61.5 | 258.47 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 17.14 | 203.57 | 60.2 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| XLE | energy | 65.08 | 61.5 | 63.3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | -0.35 | 48.31 | 14.1 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| CEG | energy | 298.07 | 62.1 | 268.1 | 11.2 | 15.76 | 1.42 | -22.22 | 4.2 | 2026-10-09 | 🟡 Mixed long trend, stretched |
| CRAK | energy | 66.29 | 62.8 | 64.83 | 2.3 | 3.19 | -0.02 | 81.22 | 31.4 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| TAC | ai-infra/energy | 13.13 | 63.9 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 6.32 | 6.32 | -15.83 | 1.7 | 2026-10-09 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| CMBT | energy | 20.6 | 67.3 | 19.65 | 4.8 | 3.78 | 6.46 | 126.87 | 39.1 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| TLN | energy | 378.57 | 69.4 | 316.86 | 19.5 | 18.02 | 18.43 | -14.83 | 7.6 | 2026-10-09 | 🟡 Mixed long trend, stretched |
| CVI | energy | 58.02 | 73.6 | 53.62 | 8.2 | 5.82 | 21.56 | 61.57 | 75.5 | 2026-10-09 | 🟠 Extended |
| ECO | energy | 93.11 | 73.7 | 83.86 | 11 | 6.68 | 29.91 | 218.32 | 70.6 | 2026-10-09 | 🟠 Extended |
| PLTR | ai-infra | 209.05 | 76.3 | 187 | 11.8 | 10.75 | 23.31 | 12.71 | 37.2 | 2026-10-09 | 🟠 Extended |
| P | ai-infra | 154.49 | 81.2 | 124.59 | 24 | 10.24 | 59.17 | 65.02 | 91.5 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Extreme extension |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI under 25)
None this week.
Oversold (RSI 25 to 40)
Long-trend status: intact (above the 200-day, positive year) none; under test or repairing (one long test failed) none; broken (below the 200-day, negative year) $EOSE, $FSLR.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40 and up)
$ENPH, $NEE, $SWKS, $AMKR, $INTC, $ARM, $QCOM, $ON, $AVGO, $SOXX, $TSM, $ASML, $LSCC, $NVDA, $SMH, $BE, $AMAT, $TXN, $AMD, $MXL, $GEV, $XOP, $AIQ, $AMZN, $BP, $MRVL, $XLE, $CEG, $CRAK, $TAC, $CMBT, $TLN, $CVI, $ECO, $PLTR, $P
Entry Zones
Zones are conditions (a level plus a confirmation), not orders. Levels are live-bound to the desk summaries.
| Stock | Zone ($) | Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| SWKS | 69.81 (shelf) to 85.94 (20-day) | Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, a close under the shelf voids it |
| INTC | Up to 113.83 (20-day) | Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, the 200-day (83.03) is the floor |
| ARM | Up to 288.93 (20-day) | Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, the 200-day (220.11) is the floor |
| QCOM | 170.84 (shelf) to 185.91 (20-day) | Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, a close under the shelf voids it |
| CEG | Wait for a pullback toward 268.1 (20-day) | Stretched on a negative year (a repair, not an intact trend); wait for a rest toward the 20-day that holds above the 200-day |
| TLN | Wait for a pullback toward 316.86 (20-day) | Stretched on a negative year (a repair, not an intact trend); wait for a rest toward the 20-day that holds above the 200-day |
| CVI | Wait for a pullback toward 53.62 (20-day) | Stretched; no entry while extended above the 20-day |
| ECO | Wait for a pullback toward 83.86 (20-day) | Stretched; no entry while extended above the 20-day |
| PLTR | Wait for a pullback toward 187 (20-day) | Stretched; no entry while extended above the 20-day |
| P | Wait for a pullback toward 124.59 (20-day) | Stretched; no entry while extended above the 20-day |
| EOSE | No entry zone | Oversold with the long trend broken; a watch item, not a setup |
| FSLR | No entry zone | Oversold with the long trend broken; a watch item, not a setup |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| SWKS | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day | 📈 Accumulate | Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim |
| INTC | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day | 📈 Accumulate | Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim |
| ARM | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day | 📈 Accumulate | Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim |
| QCOM | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day | 📈 Accumulate | Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim |
| SOXX | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| TSM | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| ASML | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| LSCC | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| NVDA | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| SMH | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| BE | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| AMAT | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| TXN | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| AMD | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| MXL | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| GEV | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| XOP | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| AIQ | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| AMZN | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| BP | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| MRVL | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| XLE | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| CRAK | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| CMBT | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| AMKR | 🟡 Mixed long trend | 🔍 Watch | Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line |
| ON | 🟡 Mixed long trend | 🔍 Watch | Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line |
| AVGO | 🟡 Mixed long trend | 🔍 Watch | Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line |
| TAC | 🟡 Mixed long trend | 🔍 Watch | Above the 200-day on a negative year: a repair, not yet an intact trend |
| CEG | 🟡 Mixed long trend, stretched | ⚠️ Don't chase | More than 10% above its 20-day with only one long test passed; wait for a rest |
| TLN | 🟡 Mixed long trend, stretched | ⚠️ Don't chase | More than 10% above its 20-day with only one long test passed; wait for a rest |
| CVI | 🟠 Extended | ⚠️ Don't chase | RSI 70 or higher; wait for a rest toward the 20-day |
| ECO | 🟠 Extended | ⚠️ Don't chase | RSI 70 or higher; wait for a rest toward the 20-day |
| PLTR | 🟠 Extended | ⚠️ Don't chase | RSI 70 or higher; wait for a rest toward the 20-day |
| P | 🔴 Extreme extension | ⚠️ Don't chase | RSI 70 or higher; wait for a rest toward the 20-day |
| EOSE | 🔴 Long trend broken | ❌ Avoid | Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed |
| FSLR | 🔴 Long trend broken | ❌ Avoid | Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed |
| ENPH | 🔴 Long trend broken | ❌ Avoid | Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed |
| NEE | 🔴 Long trend broken | ❌ Avoid | Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed |
What To Watch Next
- Chip funds: $SMH holding its 20-day ($597.06) keeps the week a pause inside a strong year; a slide toward its support shelf ($575.20) would deepen the pullback.
- $TSM and $ASML report into the chip pullback: ASML is scheduled for October 14 and TSMC for October 15.
- $ARM and $INTC: both are below their 20-day averages in strong years; a reclaim of the 20-day ($288.93 and $113.83) is the confirmation of a flag rather than a top.
- $AMKR and $ON: the 200-day averages ($57.58 and $81.14) are the lines; Amkor is scheduled to report on October 26.
- $AVGO: a second attempt above its 200-day ($368.28).
- $CEG and $TLN: whether a week of gains on hyperscaler power news turns into closes that hold above the 200-day; neither has a positive year yet.
- $P and $PLTR at or near their highs with RSI over 75: the first close below the 20-day marks the end of the run; no driver is on file for either.
- $EOSE: no floor identified; a broken trend with litigation headlines on file is not a setup.
Sources
- Tape data: pre-computed desk summaries for the semiconductor, AI-infrastructure and energy universes, as of the 2026-10-09 settled close (semis,
ai-infra.json,energy.json). - Market briefs: 2026-10-08-market-brief (OpenAI revenue report and the AI-hardware selloff; Palantir news check), 2026-10-06-market-brief (Constellation and Talen on October 6; Broadcom's 200-day close), 2026-10-05-market-brief (Intel and Terafab).
- Primary links: CNBC, AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report; Financial Times, OpenAI annualized revenue; MarketWatch, Google and Constellation nuclear deal; MarketWatch, Intel and Terafab; Benzinga, why Arm is falling; CNBC, oil jumps on tanker attacks and hurricane; Timothy Sykes, EOSE; StocksToTrade, EOSE.
- News receipts: stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json` for EOSE, ARM, CEG, TLN, PLTR, MXL, CVI (fetched 2026-10-08), INTC (2026-10-07), P (2026-09-30), AMKR (2026-09-25), SWKS (2026-09-16), ECO (2026-09-16); none covers an October 9 move.
- Event calendar:
research/stock-events/checked for 2026-10-03 to 2026-10-09 (no entries for these names);2026-10-14-asml-earnings.md,2026-10-15-tsm-earnings.md,2026-10-26-amkr-earnings.md(scheduled). No October 9 captures are on file. - Prior scan: 2026-10-02-nvda-ecosystem (structure, universe, and its October 2 readings cited as history).
Related
10 eventsSource links
Tweets, videos, filings, articles, and source pages tied to this read.