The chip leg broke in the week to October 16: all 18 semiconductor names closed below their 20-day average and 17 of 18 fell over 7D ($MXL -25.83%, $AMAT -19.28%, $LSCC -17.77%, $MRVL -17.24%), taking $SMH to RSI 31.4 and $SOXX to 30.6. AI software and storage unwound with them ($P from RSI 81.2 to 45.6, $PLTR from 76.3 to 46.3) and none of the 11 AI-infrastructure names rose. Fuel kept working: $XLE, $XOP and $BP closed within 0.25% of their 52-week highs. The long-trend line is the test: both chip funds still sit above their 200-day averages (5.6% and 5.5%) on 1Y gains of +57.24% and +70.73%.

Data as of the 2026-10-16 settled close; 38 unique tickers across the semiconductor, AI-infrastructure and energy lists (names in two lists appear once).

Chips took the damage. $SMH closed at $539.79 (-3.41% Friday, -10.53% 7D), RSI 31.4 from 53.0 a week ago, 10.2% below its 20-day, on 2.52 times average volume; $SOXX (-11.80% 7D, RSI 30.6 from 51.7) traded 2.04 times average volume. Both are still above their 200-day averages ($511.35 and $467.63). The Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ was -5.52% over 7D and the S&P 500 fund SPY -1.97% in the October 16 market conditions read; Bloomberg's October 16 wrap carried the headline "S&P 500 Suffers Worst Week Since June as AI Fears Hit Chipmakers". $NVDA ($214.13, RSI 37.5) lost 6.61% over 7D and is 5.5% above its 200-day on a +17.78% 1Y; $AMD (-13.05% 7D) and $INTC (-14.18% 7D) fell harder and remain 34.1% and 6.3% above their 200-day averages on 1Y gains of +125.42% and +143.89%.

The long trends split. Above the line: $ARM is 1.9% above its 200-day ($223.44) after -14.45% 7D, $QCOM 1.6%, $ASML 4.1%, $TSM 4.4%, $MRVL 29.6% (on a +158.22% 1Y) and $MXL 24.4% (on a +308.24% 1Y). Below it: $AVGO ($328.75) is 10.7% under its 200-day ($368.19) and its year turned negative (-7.17%), so it moved from under test to broken. $AMAT (6.8% below, +79.73% 1Y), $LSCC, $ON and $AMKR (27.5% below, RSI 30.0) sit under their 200-day averages on positive years. $MXL, the weakest chip at -25.83% over 7D (-8.77% Friday), has no cause checked; it is scheduled to report October 22. $ASML reported October 14 and $TSM October 15, both EPS beats against analyst consensus in the yfinance record ($11.82 against $10.76; $4.60 against $4.52); the shares were -7.80% and -8.98% over 7D.

AI software, storage and power followed the chips. $P closed at $124.01 (-7.04% Friday, -19.73% 7D) but is still +27.05% over 30D and 50.3% above its 200-day. $PLTR fell 7.22% Friday on 1.42 times average volume, to RSI 46.3, 21.9% above its 200-day on a +4.44% 1Y. $BE (-21.10% 7D, RSI 36.5) is only 2.3% above its 200-day ($216.30) on a +92.29% 1Y. $CEG (-8.96% 7D) closed 4.5% under its 200-day ($284.21) on a -31.56% 1Y and is back to broken; $GEV is 1.3% under its 200-day on a +53.02% 1Y.

Fuel went the other way. $XLE gained 4.86% over 7D to RSI 69.1, 0.07% under its 52-week high; $XOP +4.63%, $BP +8.56% (RSI 73.6) and $CVI +5.86% (RSI 73.3) followed. Bloomberg's October 16 wire has Brent touching $110 for the first time since May. $EOSE closed at $1.82 (-15.74% Friday), RSI 25.0, 73.6% below its 200-day on a -88.22% 1Y; the October 14 market brief recorded that day's drop amid law-firm investigation notices (StocksToTrade), and Friday's has no item on file (news pulled the evening of October 15).

• Extended band shrank: 2 of 38 at RSI 70 or higher ($BP, $CVI), from 4 ($P, $PLTR, $ECO, $CVI); $XLE sits at 69.1.
• Oversold band widened to 20 names at RSI 25 to 40, from 2 ($EOSE, $FSLR): both chip funds, $TSM, $ASML, $ARM, $MRVL, $AMAT, $AMKR, $AVGO, $LSCC, $MXL, $BE, $AIQ, $CMBT, $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC, $ENPH, $EOSE and $FSLR. None is under RSI 25; $EOSE is at 25.0.
• Breadth: below the 20-day, 29 of 38 (9 a week ago); below the 200-day, 12 of 38 (7); up over 7D, 7 of 38 (19), split 1 of 18 in semiconductors (2), 0 of 11 in AI infrastructure (6) and 6 of 16 in energy (13); up on Friday, 9 of 38.
• Long-trend changes: $AVGO, $CEG and $TAC moved to broken; $AMAT, $LSCC and $GEV moved from intact to under test. No name moved up a category.
• Universe unchanged: the same 38 tickers as the October 9 edition.

RSI under 30 is oversold, 70 and over extended. The one-year return and the distance to the 200-day separate a pullback from a breakdown: above the 200-day on a positive year is intact; one test failed is under test or repairing; both failed is broken. A name down 15% or more over 7D, or 10% or more below its 20-day, is a deep pullback: the entry is a flag that holds the 200-day, not the first bounce. The group column shows the source list; $NVDA, $ARM, $ASML, $MRVL, $TSM and $SMH sit in two lists and $TAC in both AI infrastructure and energy. This is price evidence, not a setup, with no fundamental or insider layer. $NVDA, $INTC and $AMD are shown for the tape only.

Tape figures below are live-bound to the desk summaries; the as-of date is shown per row.

None this week.

$EOSE, $AMAT, $AMKR, $SOXX, $INTC, $SMH, $LSCC, $CMBT, $TSM, $ARM, $AVGO, $AIQ, $BE, $ENPH, $NVDA, $MRVL, $ASML, $AMD, $FSLR, $MXL

Long-trend status: intact (above the 200-day, positive year) $SOXX, $INTC, $SMH, $CMBT, $TSM, $ARM, $AIQ, $BE, $NVDA, $MRVL, $ASML, $AMD, $MXL; under test or repairing (one long test failed) $AMAT, $AMKR, $LSCC; broken (below the 200-day, negative year) $EOSE, $AVGO, $ENPH, $FSLR.

$GEV, $ON, $QCOM, $AMZN, $P, $PLTR, $CEG, $TXN, $SWKS, $NEE, $TAC, $TLN, $ECO, $CRAK, $XOP, $XLE, $CVI, $BP

Of these, RSI 70 or higher: $CVI, $BP

Zones are conditions (a level plus a confirmation), not orders. Levels are live-bound to the desk summaries. $NVDA, $INTC and $AMD carry no zone.

• Chip funds: the 200-day averages are the line ($SMH $511.35, $SOXX $467.63; closes sit 5.6% and 5.5% above). A close under them turns a pullback into a trend under test; the 20-day ($601.04 and $559.97) is the first reclaim.
• $ARM and $QCOM, closest to the line: 1.9% and 1.6% above their 200-day averages ($223.44 and $169.37). $ARM reports November 4 (scheduled).
• $AVGO: the 200-day ($368.19) and a positive year are both needed to repair; $AMAT and $LSCC need their 200-day averages back ($439.03 and $114.77).
• Reports: $TXN October 21 (estimated), $MXL October 22 (scheduled), $BE October 22 (estimated), $AMKR October 26 (scheduled), $GEV October 28, $AMZN and $FSLR October 29, $INTC October 29 (estimated), $PLTR November 2.
• Fuel: the first close under the 20-day ($63.92 $XLE, $187.91 $XOP, $45.50 $BP) would be the first crack; $BP and $CVI are at RSI 73.6 and 73.3.
• $P and $PLTR: both are below their 20-day averages ($135.33 and $193.55) after RSI readings of 81.2 and 76.3 a week ago; the 200-day averages ($82.52 and $152.65) are the long-trend lines.
• $EOSE: no floor identified under $1.82; a broken trend is not a setup.

• Tape data: pre-computed desk summaries for the semiconductor, AI-infrastructure and energy universes, as of the 2026-10-16 settled close (semis, ai-infra.json, energy.json).
• Market conditions: 2026-10-16-market-conditions (QQQ, SPY 7D). Headlines: Bloomberg, S&P 500 worst week since June as AI fears hit chipmakers; Bloomberg, Brent taps $110; Bloomberg, AI rout meets $110 oil; CNBC, Nvidia, AMD, Dell sink in global tech rout (captures under 2026-10-15-* and 2026-10-16-*).
• Market brief: 2026-10-14-market-brief (EOSE law-firm notices). News receipts: latest (fetched 2026-10-15 evening PT; Timothy Sykes, EOSE) and MXL (fetched 2026-10-15 evening PT); neither covers a Friday move.
• Earnings records: 2026-10-14-asml-earnings and 2026-10-15-tsm-earnings.md (yfinance, actual against analyst consensus). Scheduled or estimated dates from 2026-10-21-txn-earnings, 2026-10-22-mxl-earnings.md, 2026-10-22-be-earnings.md, 2026-10-26-amkr-earnings.md, 2026-10-28-gev-earnings.md, 2026-10-29-amzn-earnings.md, 2026-10-29-fslr-earnings.md, 2026-10-29-intc-earnings.md, 2026-11-02-pltr-earnings.md, 2026-11-04-arm-earnings.md. No non-earnings entries for these names dated 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-16.
• Prior scan: 2026-10-09-nvda-ecosystem (structure, universe, and its October 9 readings cited as history).