NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
Semiconductors led the tape on Friday, October 2: seven of 38 names closed at RSI 70 or higher ($MXL, $TSM, $TXN, $AMD, $CVI, $ECO and $P), $NVDA closed within 1.65% of its 52-week high, and the chip funds $SMH and $SOXX are 26.2% and 29.4% above their 200-day averages. What is still working is the chip and AI-hardware core. What is not: the power-generation and renewables names ($NEE, $FSLR, $CEG, $ENPH, $EOSE) sit in oversold or near-oversold territory below their 200-day averages, so the AI-power leg is splitting. Verify before chasing: most chip leaders are 7% to 15% above their 20-day averages.
Data as of the 2026-10-02 settled close; 38 unique tickers across the three source lists (several names appear in more than one).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 Chip core extended and broad; AI-power and renewables diverging to the downside |
| Leaders | $MXL (RSI 71.5, +14.99% on the day, +553.89% on the year); $TSM (71.5, 1.3% from its 52-week high); $AMD (70.1, +273.48% on the year); $AMAT (69.2, +11.35% on the week); $ECO (73.2) and $CVI (74.7) in energy; $P (78.2) in AI infrastructure |
| Laggards | $NEE (32.8, -12.1% vs its 200-day); $FSLR (36.3, -24.78% on the year); $CEG (42.1, -27.97% on the year); $ENPH (42.6); $EOSE (40.4, -74.03% on the year); $AVGO (47.6, 3.4% below its 200-day and 28.25% below its high) |
| Key insight | $NVDA (62.9) is not the stretched name: it trails $AMD, $TSM and $AMAT in RSI while sitting near its high; the extension is in the second tier of AI hardware |
| Caveat | Price-and-RSI board only; news re-pulled 2026-10-03 for twelve names (including MXL, ARM, QCOM, NVDA, TSM and AMAT) carries no dated item that explains an October 2 move, and the other receipts predate the session; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures checked |
What's Going On
Chips ran together. $SMH (RSI 68.6) and $SOXX (66.6) both rose about 2% on the day, and the group's breadth is wide: $ON gained 6.01% on the day, $AMKR 5.9%, $ARM 5.18%, $TXN 4.44%, $AVGO 3.35% and $ASML 3.25%. $MXL was the standout, +14.99% on the day and +76.26% on the month, with a 97.6% distance above its 200-day. $ARM closed 9.2% above its 20-day with a +102.1% year but is still 32.08% below its 52-week high, and the engine flags it intact but priced. $NVDA, at $233.95 and RSI 62.9, is above its 200-day by 16.6% with a +23.86% year; relative to the semis fund's +86.44% year it is the laggard of the leaders, though it holds the closest approach to a high (1.65% below). News pulls on file for the names discussed here were fetched before the October 2 session closed, so they cannot speak to October 2 moves; the desk's event records were checked for October 1 to 2 and hold no filings for these names. Where a move has no driver below, the cause is unknown for that reason, not because the news was searched and came back empty.
The exception inside chips is $AVGO: RSI 47.6, 3.4% below its 200-day, 28.25% below its 52-week high, with a +5.02% year. Its +3.35% day does not repair a trend under test. $QCOM (52.4) lost 8.47% over the week; no driver is claimed.
In the power stack the split is clear. $BE (RSI 58.7, +33.08% on the month, +228.58% on the year) and $GEV (57.8, +63.09% on the year) are working; $CEG (42.1), $NEE (32.8), $TLN (56.4, still -26.1% on the year) and the solar/storage names ($FSLR, $ENPH, $EOSE) are not. Fuel-side energy is firm: $XLE (50.4, +42.06% on the year) and $XOP (49.8) hold above their 200-day averages, while $ECO (+203.69% year) and $CVI (+47.39% year) are extended.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-25)
How To Read The Board
RSI under 30 is oversold, 70 and over extended. The one-year return and the distance to the 200-day separate a pullback from a breakdown; the board lists each. Group column shows which source list a name comes from (some names, such as $NVDA, $ARM, $ASML, $MRVL, $TSM and $SMH, sit in two lists and appear once). This is raw price evidence, not a setup, and it has no fundamental or insider layer.
Price Table
Tape figures below are live-bound to the desk summaries; as-of date is shown per row.
| Stock | Group | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | As of | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEE | energy | 76.83 | 32.8 | 79.37 | -3.2 | 0.99 | -7.55 | -1.73 | -12.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| FSLR | energy | 174.61 | 36.3 | 192.44 | -9.3 | -1.74 | -13.82 | -24.78 | -22.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| EOSE | energy | 3.21 | 40.4 | 3.69 | -13 | 1.26 | -11.08 | -74.03 | -56.5 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| CEG | energy | 257.49 | 42.1 | 268.7 | -4.2 | -2.2 | -11.22 | -27.97 | -10.5 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| ENPH | energy | 33.47 | 42.6 | 34.71 | -3.6 | 3.3 | -5.77 | -11.31 | -18.8 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| AVGO | semis | 355.14 | 47.6 | 354.1 | 0.3 | 0.66 | -3.29 | 5.02 | -3.4 | 2026-10-02 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| AMZN | ai-infra | 251.52 | 48.6 | 251.64 | 0 | 0.74 | -1.36 | 13.09 | 4.2 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| XOP | energy | 184.93 | 49.8 | 188.04 | -1.7 | 1.89 | -4.26 | 40.24 | 13 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day |
| XLE | energy | 62.82 | 50.4 | 63.47 | -1 | 1.26 | -3.5 | 42.06 | 11.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day |
| QCOM | semis | 184.87 | 52.4 | 185.29 | -0.2 | -8.47 | 8.77 | 9.49 | 9.2 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day |
| BP | energy | 44.79 | 53.7 | 44.77 | 0 | 1.45 | 1.96 | 32.28 | 7.6 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| TAC | ai-infra/energy | 12.35 | 54.6 | 12.02 | 2.7 | 7.11 | 4.31 | -9.85 | -4.3 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken |
| SWKS | semis | 85.03 | 54.7 | 85.49 | -0.5 | -4.82 | 18.64 | 9.9 | 29.3 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day |
| TLN | energy | 320.77 | 56.4 | 305.14 | 5.1 | 5.37 | 6.2 | -26.1 | -8.8 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken |
| CRAK | energy | 64.24 | 57.3 | 64.63 | -0.6 | 0.06 | 3.1 | 73.62 | 29.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day |
| GEV | energy | 988.7 | 57.8 | 944.66 | 4.7 | 3.24 | 7.24 | 63.09 | 7.8 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| ARM | semis/ai-infra | 307.49 | 58.5 | 281.7 | 9.2 | -0.91 | 30.92 | 102.1 | 42.5 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| BE | energy | 289.15 | 58.7 | 272.21 | 6.2 | 0.16 | 33.08 | 228.58 | 39.4 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| AMKR | semis | 56.02 | 58.8 | 51.21 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 18.76 | 89 | -2.2 | 2026-10-02 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| AIQ | ai-infra | 66.23 | 60.5 | 64.78 | 2.2 | 0.39 | 4.99 | 31.62 | 15.5 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| INTC | semis | 119.33 | 60.6 | 111.64 | 6.9 | -2.98 | 32.52 | 219.92 | 47 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| PLTR | ai-infra | 188.75 | 61.2 | 180.19 | 4.8 | -0.49 | 11.38 | 0.91 | 24.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| NVDA | semis/ai-infra | 233.95 | 62.9 | 223.79 | 4.5 | 3.95 | 4.25 | 23.86 | 16.6 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| CMBT | energy | 19.85 | 64.6 | 19.44 | 2.1 | 4.42 | 5.87 | 116.94 | 36.5 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| ASML | semis/ai-infra | 1867.31 | 64.8 | 1721.85 | 8.4 | 7.07 | 11 | 81.26 | 21 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| MRVL | semis/ai-infra | 272.29 | 65 | 246.18 | 10.6 | 3.95 | 31.87 | 215.88 | 63.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| ON | semis | 84.89 | 65.5 | 73.78 | 15.1 | 9.96 | 17.35 | 74.17 | 5.5 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| LSCC | semis | 134 | 65.6 | 118.56 | 13 | 4.65 | 17.67 | 83.89 | 19.2 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| SOXX | semis | 588.9 | 66.6 | 543.7 | 8.3 | 2.83 | 17.44 | 109.06 | 29.4 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| SMH | semis/ai-infra | 630.6 | 68.6 | 584.15 | 8 | 3.96 | 14.55 | 86.44 | 26.2 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| AMAT | semis | 540.04 | 69.2 | 468.97 | 15.2 | 11.35 | 23.17 | 141.53 | 26.3 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| AMD | semis | 633.91 | 70.1 | 566.49 | 11.9 | 0.52 | 38.69 | 273.48 | 69.2 | 2026-10-02 | 🟠 Extended |
| TXN | semis | 293.8 | 70.4 | 269.88 | 8.9 | 5.66 | 15.31 | 61.15 | 18.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🟠 Extended |
| TSM | semis/ai-infra | 472.78 | 71.5 | 441.12 | 7.2 | 4.92 | 13.79 | 64.1 | 22.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🟠 Extended |
| MXL | semis | 105.93 | 71.5 | 80.51 | 31.6 | 12.88 | 76.26 | 553.89 | 97.6 | 2026-10-02 | 🟠 Extended |
| ECO | energy | 87.28 | 73.2 | 79.41 | 9.9 | 12.04 | 26.46 | 203.69 | 64.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🟠 Extended |
| CVI | energy | 54.83 | 74.7 | 50.98 | 7.5 | 6.42 | 27.75 | 47.39 | 69.6 | 2026-10-02 | 🟠 Extended |
| P | ai-infra | 140.14 | 78.2 | 111.65 | 25.5 | 11.22 | 51.62 | 58.8 | 78.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🟠 Extended |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI under 25)
None this scan.
Oversold (RSI 25 to 40)
Of the oversold group, above the 200-day with a positive year (pullbacks): None this scan.. Below the 200-day or with a negative year (trend under test): $NEE, $FSLR.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40 and up)
$EOSE, $CEG, $ENPH, $AVGO, $AMZN, $XOP, $XLE, $QCOM, $BP, $TAC, $SWKS, $TLN, $CRAK, $GEV, $ARM, $BE, $AMKR, $AIQ, $INTC, $PLTR, $NVDA, $CMBT, $ASML, $MRVL, $ON, $LSCC, $SOXX, $SMH, $AMAT, $AMD, $TXN, $TSM, $MXL, $ECO, $CVI, $P
Entry Zones
| Stock | Zone | Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Up to 251.64 (20-day); no support shelf identified | Pullback inside an intact trend (above the 200-day, positive year); a reclaim of the 20-day is the confirmation, a hold of the shelf the floor |
| XOP | Up to 188.04 (20-day); no support shelf identified | Pullback inside an intact trend (above the 200-day, positive year); a reclaim of the 20-day is the confirmation, a hold of the shelf the floor |
| MRVL | Wait for a pullback toward 246.18 (20-day) | Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day |
| ON | Wait for a pullback toward 73.78 (20-day) | Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day |
| LSCC | Wait for a pullback toward 118.56 (20-day) | Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day |
| SOXX | Wait for a pullback toward 543.7 (20-day) | Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day |
| SMH | Wait for a pullback toward 584.15 (20-day) | Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day |
| AMAT | Wait for a pullback toward 468.97 (20-day) | Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day |
| AMD | Wait for a pullback toward 566.49 (20-day) | Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day |
| TXN | Wait for a pullback toward 269.88 (20-day) | Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day |
| TSM | Wait for a pullback toward 441.12 (20-day) | Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day |
| MXL | Wait for a pullback toward 80.51 (20-day) | Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day |
| ECO | Wait for a pullback toward 79.41 (20-day) | Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day |
| CVI | Wait for a pullback toward 50.98 (20-day) | Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day |
| P | Wait for a pullback toward 111.65 (20-day) | Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 Accumulate | XOP, XLE, QCOM, SWKS, CRAK | Above the 200-day, positive year, below the 20-day: pullback inside a working trend |
| 🔒 Hold | AMZN, BP, GEV, ARM, BE, AIQ, INTC, PLTR, NVDA, CMBT, ASML, MRVL, ON, LSCC, SOXX, SMH, AMAT | Above the 200-day and the 20-day with a positive year |
| 🔍 Watch | AVGO, AMKR | Oversold pullback in an intact trend, or a mixed long trend; confirm a floor |
| ⚠️ Don't chase | AMD, TXN, TSM, MXL, ECO, CVI, P | Stretched; RSI 70 or higher |
| ❌ Avoid | NEE, FSLR, EOSE, CEG, ENPH, TAC, TLN | Below the 200-day with a negative year |
What To Watch Next
- $MXL, $TSM, $AMD, $TXN and $AMAT at or near RSI 70: whether they hold their 20-day on any pullback, or the group's 7% to 15% stretch above the 20-day unwinds together.
- $NVDA near its high: a break above it with the chip funds still rising would extend the move; a fade while peers hold would be a relative-strength warning.
- $AVGO: reclaim of its 200-day, or the trend stays under test.
- $CEG and $NEE: stabilization above the 200-day is the line for the AI-power leg; $BE and $GEV carry it until then.
- $QCOM's weekly slide: cause unknown; news pulled 2026-10-03 shows only a MarketBeat item (October 1) tying that day's 1.1% dip to a CEO share sale; stock-events checked.
Sources
- Tape data: pre-computed desk summaries for the semiconductor, AI-infrastructure and energy universes, as of the 2026-10-02 close (semis,
ai-infra.json,energy.json). - News receipts: latest (re-pulled 2026-10-03, no item on the move),
ON(2026-09-23),AMKR(2026-09-25); the ON and AMKR pulls predate the October 2 session.research/stock-events/checked for 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-02: no entries for these names. - Prior scan: 2026-09-25-nvda-ecosystem (structure only).
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.