NVDA Ecosystem Scan

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NVDA Ecosystem Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 63 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-09-25-nvda-ecosystem.md

Semiconductors led the tape on Friday, October 2: seven of 38 names closed at RSI 70 or higher ($MXL, $TSM, $TXN, $AMD, $CVI, $ECO and $P), $NVDA closed within 1.65% of its 52-week high, and the chip funds $SMH and $SOXX are 26.2% and 29.4% above their 200-day averages. What is still working is the chip and AI-hardware core. What is not: the power-generation and renewables names ($NEE, $FSLR, $CEG, $ENPH, $EOSE) sit in oversold or near-oversold territory below their 200-day averages, so the AI-power leg is splitting. Verify before chasing: most chip leaders are 7% to 15% above their 20-day averages.

Data as of the 2026-10-02 settled close; 38 unique tickers across the three source lists (several names appear in more than one).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟠 Chip core extended and broad; AI-power and renewables diverging to the downside
Leaders $MXL (RSI 71.5, +14.99% on the day, +553.89% on the year); $TSM (71.5, 1.3% from its 52-week high); $AMD (70.1, +273.48% on the year); $AMAT (69.2, +11.35% on the week); $ECO (73.2) and $CVI (74.7) in energy; $P (78.2) in AI infrastructure
Laggards $NEE (32.8, -12.1% vs its 200-day); $FSLR (36.3, -24.78% on the year); $CEG (42.1, -27.97% on the year); $ENPH (42.6); $EOSE (40.4, -74.03% on the year); $AVGO (47.6, 3.4% below its 200-day and 28.25% below its high)
Key insight $NVDA (62.9) is not the stretched name: it trails $AMD, $TSM and $AMAT in RSI while sitting near its high; the extension is in the second tier of AI hardware
Caveat Price-and-RSI board only; news re-pulled 2026-10-03 for twelve names (including MXL, ARM, QCOM, NVDA, TSM and AMAT) carries no dated item that explains an October 2 move, and the other receipts predate the session; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures checked

What's Going On

Chips ran together. $SMH (RSI 68.6) and $SOXX (66.6) both rose about 2% on the day, and the group's breadth is wide: $ON gained 6.01% on the day, $AMKR 5.9%, $ARM 5.18%, $TXN 4.44%, $AVGO 3.35% and $ASML 3.25%. $MXL was the standout, +14.99% on the day and +76.26% on the month, with a 97.6% distance above its 200-day. $ARM closed 9.2% above its 20-day with a +102.1% year but is still 32.08% below its 52-week high, and the engine flags it intact but priced. $NVDA, at $233.95 and RSI 62.9, is above its 200-day by 16.6% with a +23.86% year; relative to the semis fund's +86.44% year it is the laggard of the leaders, though it holds the closest approach to a high (1.65% below). News pulls on file for the names discussed here were fetched before the October 2 session closed, so they cannot speak to October 2 moves; the desk's event records were checked for October 1 to 2 and hold no filings for these names. Where a move has no driver below, the cause is unknown for that reason, not because the news was searched and came back empty.

The exception inside chips is $AVGO: RSI 47.6, 3.4% below its 200-day, 28.25% below its 52-week high, with a +5.02% year. Its +3.35% day does not repair a trend under test. $QCOM (52.4) lost 8.47% over the week; no driver is claimed.

In the power stack the split is clear. $BE (RSI 58.7, +33.08% on the month, +228.58% on the year) and $GEV (57.8, +63.09% on the year) are working; $CEG (42.1), $NEE (32.8), $TLN (56.4, still -26.1% on the year) and the solar/storage names ($FSLR, $ENPH, $EOSE) are not. Fuel-side energy is firm: $XLE (50.4, +42.06% on the year) and $XOP (49.8) hold above their 200-day averages, while $ECO (+203.69% year) and $CVI (+47.39% year) are extended.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-25)

  • Extended count: 7 of 38 names at RSI 70 or higher; none below RSI 30.
  • Below the 200-day: 9 of 38 names, concentrated in power and renewables plus $AVGO and $AMKR.
  • Below the 20-day: 10 of 38.
  • This edition carries no week-over-week price or RSI deltas; every figure is as of the October 2 close.

How To Read The Board

RSI under 30 is oversold, 70 and over extended. The one-year return and the distance to the 200-day separate a pullback from a breakdown; the board lists each. Group column shows which source list a name comes from (some names, such as $NVDA, $ARM, $ASML, $MRVL, $TSM and $SMH, sit in two lists and appear once). This is raw price evidence, not a setup, and it has no fundamental or insider layer.

Price Table

Tape figures below are live-bound to the desk summaries; as-of date is shown per row.

Stock Group Price ($) RSI SMA20 ($) vs SMA20 (%) 7D (%) 30D (%) 1Y (%) vs SMA200 (%) As of Signal
NEE energy 76.83 32.8 79.37 -3.2 0.99 -7.55 -1.73 -12.1 2026-10-02 🔴 Long trend broken
FSLR energy 174.61 36.3 192.44 -9.3 -1.74 -13.82 -24.78 -22.1 2026-10-02 🔴 Long trend broken
EOSE energy 3.21 40.4 3.69 -13 1.26 -11.08 -74.03 -56.5 2026-10-02 🔴 Long trend broken
CEG energy 257.49 42.1 268.7 -4.2 -2.2 -11.22 -27.97 -10.5 2026-10-02 🔴 Long trend broken
ENPH energy 33.47 42.6 34.71 -3.6 3.3 -5.77 -11.31 -18.8 2026-10-02 🔴 Long trend broken
AVGO semis 355.14 47.6 354.1 0.3 0.66 -3.29 5.02 -3.4 2026-10-02 🟡 Mixed long trend
AMZN ai-infra 251.52 48.6 251.64 0 0.74 -1.36 13.09 4.2 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
XOP energy 184.93 49.8 188.04 -1.7 1.89 -4.26 40.24 13 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
XLE energy 62.82 50.4 63.47 -1 1.26 -3.5 42.06 11.1 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
QCOM semis 184.87 52.4 185.29 -0.2 -8.47 8.77 9.49 9.2 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
BP energy 44.79 53.7 44.77 0 1.45 1.96 32.28 7.6 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
TAC ai-infra/energy 12.35 54.6 12.02 2.7 7.11 4.31 -9.85 -4.3 2026-10-02 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken
SWKS semis 85.03 54.7 85.49 -0.5 -4.82 18.64 9.9 29.3 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
TLN energy 320.77 56.4 305.14 5.1 5.37 6.2 -26.1 -8.8 2026-10-02 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken
CRAK energy 64.24 57.3 64.63 -0.6 0.06 3.1 73.62 29.1 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
GEV energy 988.7 57.8 944.66 4.7 3.24 7.24 63.09 7.8 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
ARM semis/ai-infra 307.49 58.5 281.7 9.2 -0.91 30.92 102.1 42.5 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
BE energy 289.15 58.7 272.21 6.2 0.16 33.08 228.58 39.4 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
AMKR semis 56.02 58.8 51.21 9.4 4.5 18.76 89 -2.2 2026-10-02 🟡 Mixed long trend
AIQ ai-infra 66.23 60.5 64.78 2.2 0.39 4.99 31.62 15.5 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
INTC semis 119.33 60.6 111.64 6.9 -2.98 32.52 219.92 47 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
PLTR ai-infra 188.75 61.2 180.19 4.8 -0.49 11.38 0.91 24.1 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
NVDA semis/ai-infra 233.95 62.9 223.79 4.5 3.95 4.25 23.86 16.6 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
CMBT energy 19.85 64.6 19.44 2.1 4.42 5.87 116.94 36.5 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
ASML semis/ai-infra 1867.31 64.8 1721.85 8.4 7.07 11 81.26 21 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
MRVL semis/ai-infra 272.29 65 246.18 10.6 3.95 31.87 215.88 63.1 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
ON semis 84.89 65.5 73.78 15.1 9.96 17.35 74.17 5.5 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
LSCC semis 134 65.6 118.56 13 4.65 17.67 83.89 19.2 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
SOXX semis 588.9 66.6 543.7 8.3 2.83 17.44 109.06 29.4 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
SMH semis/ai-infra 630.6 68.6 584.15 8 3.96 14.55 86.44 26.2 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
AMAT semis 540.04 69.2 468.97 15.2 11.35 23.17 141.53 26.3 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy trend
AMD semis 633.91 70.1 566.49 11.9 0.52 38.69 273.48 69.2 2026-10-02 🟠 Extended
TXN semis 293.8 70.4 269.88 8.9 5.66 15.31 61.15 18.1 2026-10-02 🟠 Extended
TSM semis/ai-infra 472.78 71.5 441.12 7.2 4.92 13.79 64.1 22.1 2026-10-02 🟠 Extended
MXL semis 105.93 71.5 80.51 31.6 12.88 76.26 553.89 97.6 2026-10-02 🟠 Extended
ECO energy 87.28 73.2 79.41 9.9 12.04 26.46 203.69 64.1 2026-10-02 🟠 Extended
CVI energy 54.83 74.7 50.98 7.5 6.42 27.75 47.39 69.6 2026-10-02 🟠 Extended
P ai-infra 140.14 78.2 111.65 25.5 11.22 51.62 58.8 78.1 2026-10-02 🟠 Extended

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI under 25)

None this scan.

Oversold (RSI 25 to 40)

$NEE, $FSLR

Of the oversold group, above the 200-day with a positive year (pullbacks): None this scan.. Below the 200-day or with a negative year (trend under test): $NEE, $FSLR.

Neutral to strong (RSI 40 and up)

Entry Zones

Stock Zone Conditions
AMZN Up to 251.64 (20-day); no support shelf identified Pullback inside an intact trend (above the 200-day, positive year); a reclaim of the 20-day is the confirmation, a hold of the shelf the floor
XOP Up to 188.04 (20-day); no support shelf identified Pullback inside an intact trend (above the 200-day, positive year); a reclaim of the 20-day is the confirmation, a hold of the shelf the floor
MRVL Wait for a pullback toward 246.18 (20-day) Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day
ON Wait for a pullback toward 73.78 (20-day) Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day
LSCC Wait for a pullback toward 118.56 (20-day) Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day
SOXX Wait for a pullback toward 543.7 (20-day) Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day
SMH Wait for a pullback toward 584.15 (20-day) Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day
AMAT Wait for a pullback toward 468.97 (20-day) Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day
AMD Wait for a pullback toward 566.49 (20-day) Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day
TXN Wait for a pullback toward 269.88 (20-day) Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day
TSM Wait for a pullback toward 441.12 (20-day) Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day
MXL Wait for a pullback toward 80.51 (20-day) Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day
ECO Wait for a pullback toward 79.41 (20-day) Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day
CVI Wait for a pullback toward 50.98 (20-day) Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day
P Wait for a pullback toward 111.65 (20-day) Extended; no entry while stretched above its 20-day

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Notes
📈 Accumulate XOP, XLE, QCOM, SWKS, CRAK Above the 200-day, positive year, below the 20-day: pullback inside a working trend
🔒 Hold AMZN, BP, GEV, ARM, BE, AIQ, INTC, PLTR, NVDA, CMBT, ASML, MRVL, ON, LSCC, SOXX, SMH, AMAT Above the 200-day and the 20-day with a positive year
🔍 Watch AVGO, AMKR Oversold pullback in an intact trend, or a mixed long trend; confirm a floor
⚠️ Don't chase AMD, TXN, TSM, MXL, ECO, CVI, P Stretched; RSI 70 or higher
❌ Avoid NEE, FSLR, EOSE, CEG, ENPH, TAC, TLN Below the 200-day with a negative year

What To Watch Next

  • $MXL, $TSM, $AMD, $TXN and $AMAT at or near RSI 70: whether they hold their 20-day on any pullback, or the group's 7% to 15% stretch above the 20-day unwinds together.
  • $NVDA near its high: a break above it with the chip funds still rising would extend the move; a fade while peers hold would be a relative-strength warning.
  • $AVGO: reclaim of its 200-day, or the trend stays under test.
  • $CEG and $NEE: stabilization above the 200-day is the line for the AI-power leg; $BE and $GEV carry it until then.
  • $QCOM's weekly slide: cause unknown; news pulled 2026-10-03 shows only a MarketBeat item (October 1) tying that day's 1.1% dip to a CEO share sale; stock-events checked.

Sources

  • Tape data: pre-computed desk summaries for the semiconductor, AI-infrastructure and energy universes, as of the 2026-10-02 close (semis, ai-infra.json, energy.json).
  • News receipts: latest (re-pulled 2026-10-03, no item on the move), ON (2026-09-23), AMKR (2026-09-25); the ON and AMKR pulls predate the October 2 session. research/stock-events/ checked for 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-02: no entries for these names.
  • Prior scan: 2026-09-25-nvda-ecosystem (structure only).
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.