NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
$SWKS blew through the top of the cut this scan — RSI 67.7 to an extreme 83.4, up 19.4% for the week and now the only name in extreme-overbought territory — while $AVGO fell the other way, sliding from RSI 38.1 to 42.2 but still down 13.0% over 30 days, extending its run as the cut's most persistent laggard. $NVDA itself cooled from RSI 60.4 to 49.8 on a 5.2% weekly pullback but remains 10.5% above its 200-day with a 23.2% year-over-year return — a normal cooldown inside an intact trend, not a breakdown. $TLN, the cut's only clean breakdown last scan, stayed below its 200-day and its year-over-year return worsened further to -22.0%.
Data as-of the 2026-09-11 close (Friday's settled session) — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar this scan.
Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names — same 20-ticker cut and exclusion methodology as the prior scan (AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P/AIQ/SMH/SFTBY excluded from ai-infra.json; EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC/XLE/XOP/CMBT excluded from energy.json; SMH/SOXX excluded from semis.json as broad-basket duplicates). Prior scan: 2026-08-28-nvda-ecosystem and 2026-09-04-nvda-ecosystem.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A split scan — one name (SWKS) ran into extreme-overbought territory while the broader cut cooled off last week's universal up-day; $TLN remains the one clean breakdown |
| Leaders | $SWKS (RSI 83.4, extreme overbought, up 19.4% for the week); $QCOM (66.3, up 7.8% for the week); $BE (65.0, up 9.1% for the week) |
| Laggards | $AMAT (41.7, down 16.7% over 30 days); $AVGO (42.2, still down 13.0% over 30 days despite an earnings beat two weeks back); $TLN (44.7, the cut's clean breakdown) |
| Key insight | $SWKS's move has no established cause this scan — its news receipt (fetched 2026-08-05) predates this week's surge and shows only stale Qorvo-merger and earnings coverage; no matching stock-event was found |
What's Going On
$SWKS is this scan's standout: RSI jumped from 67.7 to 83.4, the cut's highest print by a wide margin and the only name in extreme-overbought territory, on a 19.4% weekly gain and a 24.7% premium to its 20-day average. The news receipt on file for $SWKS was fetched 2026-08-05 — well before this week's move — and shows only routine coverage plus its already-known Qorvo merger story from October 2025; no matching stock-event was found for this window. The cause of this week's surge is not established in this scan's sources.
$AVGO continues as the cut's most persistent laggard even after last scan's broad bounce. RSI ticked up slightly (38.1 to 42.2) but the stock is still down 13.0% over 30 days and 26.9% off its 52-week high, despite reporting an EPS beat on 2026-09-02 ($3.32 actual versus $3.24 consensus, +2.5% surprise) — a beaten estimate that hasn't translated into a recovering chart. $AMAT joined it as a fresh laggard this scan, cooling to RSI 41.7 on a 16.7% 30-day decline, though it remains up 168.3% over the year and 10.9% above its 200-day — a deep pullback, not a breakdown.
$TLN remains the cut's only name that fails the long-trend test outright: still below its 200-day (-12.4%) with a year-over-year return that worsened further to -22.0% (from -16.7% last scan), even though its RSI (44.7) sits mid-pack. $CEG, flagged as a "recovering price, still-lagging trend" name for three straight scans, slipped back below its 200-day this scan (-3.6%, from +0.9%) while its year-over-year return stayed negative (-10.5%) — the recovery from two scans ago has partly reversed.
The bulk of the cohort is still intact. $MRVL, $MXL, $TSM, $INTC, $AMD, $BE, $QCOM all sit above their 200-day with strongly positive year-over-year returns, several extreme: $MXL +364.9%, $INTC +318.3%, $BE +309.8%, $MRVL +254.6%, $AMD +231.6%. $NVDA itself cooled from last scan's post-bounce RSI of 60.4 to 49.8 on a 5.2% weekly pullback, but remains 10.5% above its 200-day with a 23.2% year-over-year return and is still just 7.7% off its 52-week high — the cleanest, least-volatile chart in the cut continues to be the cleanest chart.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-04)
- $SWKS surged into extreme-overbought territory. RSI 67.7 → 83.4 (+15.7), price up 19.4% for the week and 26.8% for the month — no cause established in checked news/events.
- $AVGO stayed the cut's laggard despite an earnings beat. RSI 38.1 → 42.2 (+4.1), still -13.0% over 30 days even after a 2026-09-02 EPS beat ($3.32 vs $3.24 est).
- $AMAT cooled into laggard territory. RSI 39.8 → 41.7 (roughly flat), 30-day return -16.7% — still +168.3% 1Y and above its 200-day.
- $CEG slipped back below its 200-day. vs-200-day +0.9% → -3.6%, RSI 66.7 → 53.7 (-13.0) — the recovery flagged two scans ago has partly reversed; year-over-year return stayed negative (-10.5%).
- $TLN's year-over-year return worsened further. -16.7% → -22.0%, still the cut's only clean breakdown; RSI cooled slightly (46.2 → 44.7).
- $NVDA cooled off last scan's bounce. RSI 60.4 → 49.8 (-10.6), price down 5.2% for the week — still +23.2% 1Y and 10.5% above its 200-day.
- $MXL and $BE both extended strong weekly gains. MXL: RSI 44.6 → 56.4, +18.9% for the week. BE: RSI 63.1 → 65.0, +9.1% for the week.
- The oversold band emptied. No name in the cut sits below RSI 40 this scan (last scan $AVGO alone occupied 25-40).
- No stale bars this scan — every name carries a fresh 2026-09-11 close.
- Universe unchanged. Same 20 tickers and exclusion methodology as the prior scan.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions — under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought, over 80 signals extreme. vs SMA20 is the price gap to the 20-day average. 1Y% and vs SMA200 are the numbers to check before calling anything a breakdown or a trend change: most of this cut sits above its 200-day with a strongly positive year despite this week's mixed moves. $TLN, trading below its 200-day with a worsening negative year, is the one name actually under structural test. $CEG is the trickiest read this scan: its RSI cooled and it slipped back below its 200-day, reversing two scans of "recovering" — watch whether that becomes a genuine re-test or a one-scan blip. $SWKS's extreme RSI print, with no news or event found to explain the week's 19.4% gain, is the name to verify before treating the move as fundamental rather than mechanical (its 20-day average sits 24.7% below the current price).
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 1D% | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | 52wkHi | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | $456.49 | 41.7 | $475.55 | -4.0% | +0.6% | +0.4% | -16.7% | +168.3% | +10.9% | -38.3% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| AVGO | $361.99 | 42.2 | $367.49 | -1.5% | +0.3% | +1.1% | -13.0% | +0.7% | -2.2% | -26.9% | 🔴 Persistent laggard despite EPS beat |
| TLN | $312.74 | 44.7 | $314.75 | -0.6% | +0.4% | -1.3% | -14.3% | -22.0% | -12.4% | -30.7% | 🔴 Only clean breakdown, worsening |
| ASML | $1,698.95 | 46.8 | $1,737.12 | -2.2% | +0.7% | -0.9% | -6.1% | +111.3% | +13.6% | -15.1% | 🟡 Mild pullback, intact |
| GEV | $957.27 | 48.7 | $957.56 | 0.0% | +3.6% | +1.6% | -8.0% | +50.9% | +7.1% | -20.0% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| ON | $76.14 | 49.0 | $74.58 | +2.1% | +8.5% | +2.4% | -8.6% | +55.3% | -3.5% | -43.6% | 🟡 Big 1D pop, testing 200-day |
| AMKR | $51.73 | 49.5 | $50.50 | +2.4% | +4.4% | +8.3% | -6.9% | +103.8% | -8.4% | -46.5% | 🟡 Below 200-day, still +104% 1Y |
| LSCC | $119.76 | 49.7 | $118.10 | +1.4% | +4.9% | +3.3% | -7.4% | +81.4% | +9.8% | -23.7% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| NVDA | $218.29 | 49.8 | $220.16 | -0.9% | 0.0% | -5.2% | -2.6% | +23.2% | +10.5% | -7.7% | 🟢 Cooled, cleanest chart, near highs |
| TXN | $268.70 | 51.7 | $263.37 | +2.0% | +3.8% | +4.0% | -2.9% | +45.8% | +11.3% | -19.6% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| ARM | $264.79 | 53.4 | $251.21 | +5.4% | +4.2% | +5.0% | -2.6% | +71.2% | +29.6% | -41.5% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| CEG | $284.75 | 53.7 | $281.54 | +1.1% | -0.4% | -4.8% | +2.2% | -10.5% | -3.6% | -31.0% | 🔴 Slipped back below 200-day |
| MRVL | $236.10 | 55.5 | $227.75 | +3.7% | +4.0% | +5.6% | +8.8% | +254.6% | +52.5% | -28.4% | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact |
| MXL | $74.57 | 56.4 | $66.98 | +11.3% | +7.5% | +18.9% | +0.3% | +364.9% | +53.5% | -41.9% | 🟢 Strong weekly gain, intact |
| TSM | $433.24 | 56.9 | $421.71 | +2.7% | +1.2% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +67.3% | +15.2% | -9.6% | 🟡 Mild pullback, intact |
| INTC | $102.94 | 57.5 | $94.61 | +8.8% | +2.6% | +7.5% | +2.0% | +318.3% | +36.3% | -27.7% | 🟢 Uptrend, intact |
| AMD | $516.13 | 58.0 | $482.04 | +7.1% | +2.5% | +8.1% | +6.9% | +231.6% | +48.8% | -11.7% | 🟢 Uptrend, intact |
| BE | $275.75 | 65.0 | $227.82 | +21.0% | +6.7% | +9.1% | +16.3% | +309.8% | +41.6% | -21.5% | 🟢 Uptrend, thesis intact |
| QCOM | $181.97 | 66.3 | $166.85 | +9.1% | +2.9% | +7.8% | +11.6% | +12.7% | +8.2% | -30.0% | 🟢 Strong weekly gain |
| SWKS | $88.35 | 83.4 | $70.83 | +24.7% | +5.1% | +19.4% | +26.8% | +18.3% | +37.5% | -4.3% | 🟠 Extreme overbought, no cause found |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
None — the band emptied this scan; $AVGO (42.2) is now just above the line.
RSI 40+ (everyone else)
- Genuine breakdown (below 200-day, negative 1-year): $TLN — the cut's only remaining name that fails the long-trend check outright, and it worsened this scan.
- Slipped back, still-lagging trend: $CEG — dropped back below its 200-day this scan after two scans of recovery, year-over-year return still negative.
- Persistent laggard despite the tape: $AVGO — up on RSI slightly but still down double digits over 30 days despite a recent earnings beat.
- Deep pullback, long trend intact: $AMAT, $ASML, $GEV, $ON, $AMKR, $LSCC, $NVDA, $TXN, $ARM, $MRVL, $TSM — eleven names, the bulk of the cut, all above (or essentially at) their 200-day with strongly positive year-over-year returns.
- Strong weekly gain, intact: $MXL, $INTC, $AMD, $BE, $QCOM — clear uptrends posting the cut's best weekly moves.
- Extreme overbought, cause not established: $SWKS — the cut's highest RSI by a wide margin on a 19.4% weekly gain with no corroborating news or event found.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 1Y% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $218.29 | <$189.74 (a prior support level) | 49.8 | +23.2% | Cooled off last scan's bounce; still 7.7% off its 52-week high, the cleanest chart in the cohort |
| AVGO | $361.99 | <$344.95 (a prior support level) | 42.2 | +0.7% | Persistent laggard even after an earnings beat; watch whether the 200-day (barely below current price) holds |
| AMAT | $456.49 | <$420 area (30-day pullback zone) | 41.7 | +168.3% | Fresh laggard this scan on a 16.7% 30-day decline, but still well above its 200-day |
| MRVL | $236.10 | <$89.40 (a prior support level, far below) | 55.5 | +254.6% | Continued strength, still 52% above its 200-day |
| TLN | $312.74 | No support shelf identified | 44.7 | -22.0% | The cut's only clean breakdown, and its year-over-year return worsened again this scan |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA, TSM, ASML, MRVL, BE | Above the 200-day, strongly positive year-over-year return, thesis marked intact where tracked |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | AMD, INTC, AMAT, LSCC, ARM, MXL, GEV, TXN | Deep pullback or steady uptrend this scan but well above the 200-day with strong multi-year returns |
| 🔍 WATCH | ON, AMKR, QCOM, SWKS | $ON/$AMKR are testing or near their 200-day; $QCOM and $SWKS posted the cut's biggest weekly gains — confirm the driver before treating either as a durable breakout, especially $SWKS where no cause is established |
| ⚠️ RECOVERING, STILL LAGGING | CEG | Slipped back below its 200-day this scan after two scans of price recovery; year-over-year return still negative |
| ⚠️ PERSISTENT LAGGARD | AVGO | Still down double digits over 30 days despite a recent earnings beat |
| ❌ AVOID / BREAKDOWN WATCH | TLN | Below the 200-day with a worsening negative year-over-year return |
What To Watch Next
- $SWKS's 19.4% weekly surge into extreme-overbought territory has no established cause — does a driver surface (its pending Qorvo merger is the only known catalyst on file, dated October 2025), or does this look like a mechanical/technical move that fades?
- $AVGO stayed the cut's laggard even after a 2026-09-02 earnings beat — does the earnings result eventually pull the chart up, or does the market keep discounting it?
- $CEG slipped back below its 200-day after two scans of recovery — does it re-test and hold, or is the earlier recovery fully unwound next scan?
- $TLN's year-over-year return worsened for a second straight scan (-16.7% to -22.0%) — does the cut's one clean breakdown deepen further, or find a floor?
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-11 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
- Earnings event for $AVGO: 2026-09-02-avgo-earnings (reported 2026-09-02, EPS beat).
- News check for $SWKS: latest (fetched 2026-08-05, predates this week's move) and
research/stock-events/(no matching event found). - Prior scans for comparison: 2026-09-04-nvda-ecosystem, 2026-08-28-nvda-ecosystem.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.