NVDA Ecosystem Scan

Scan

NVDA Ecosystem Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 35 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-09-04-nvda-ecosystem.md

$SWKS blew through the top of the cut this scan — RSI 67.7 to an extreme 83.4, up 19.4% for the week and now the only name in extreme-overbought territory — while $AVGO fell the other way, sliding from RSI 38.1 to 42.2 but still down 13.0% over 30 days, extending its run as the cut's most persistent laggard. $NVDA itself cooled from RSI 60.4 to 49.8 on a 5.2% weekly pullback but remains 10.5% above its 200-day with a 23.2% year-over-year return — a normal cooldown inside an intact trend, not a breakdown. $TLN, the cut's only clean breakdown last scan, stayed below its 200-day and its year-over-year return worsened further to -22.0%.

Data as-of the 2026-09-11 close (Friday's settled session) — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar this scan.

Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names — same 20-ticker cut and exclusion methodology as the prior scan (AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P/AIQ/SMH/SFTBY excluded from ai-infra.json; EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC/XLE/XOP/CMBT excluded from energy.json; SMH/SOXX excluded from semis.json as broad-basket duplicates). Prior scan: 2026-08-28-nvda-ecosystem and 2026-09-04-nvda-ecosystem.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A split scan — one name (SWKS) ran into extreme-overbought territory while the broader cut cooled off last week's universal up-day; $TLN remains the one clean breakdown
Leaders $SWKS (RSI 83.4, extreme overbought, up 19.4% for the week); $QCOM (66.3, up 7.8% for the week); $BE (65.0, up 9.1% for the week)
Laggards $AMAT (41.7, down 16.7% over 30 days); $AVGO (42.2, still down 13.0% over 30 days despite an earnings beat two weeks back); $TLN (44.7, the cut's clean breakdown)
Key insight $SWKS's move has no established cause this scan — its news receipt (fetched 2026-08-05) predates this week's surge and shows only stale Qorvo-merger and earnings coverage; no matching stock-event was found

What's Going On

$SWKS is this scan's standout: RSI jumped from 67.7 to 83.4, the cut's highest print by a wide margin and the only name in extreme-overbought territory, on a 19.4% weekly gain and a 24.7% premium to its 20-day average. The news receipt on file for $SWKS was fetched 2026-08-05 — well before this week's move — and shows only routine coverage plus its already-known Qorvo merger story from October 2025; no matching stock-event was found for this window. The cause of this week's surge is not established in this scan's sources.

$AVGO continues as the cut's most persistent laggard even after last scan's broad bounce. RSI ticked up slightly (38.1 to 42.2) but the stock is still down 13.0% over 30 days and 26.9% off its 52-week high, despite reporting an EPS beat on 2026-09-02 ($3.32 actual versus $3.24 consensus, +2.5% surprise) — a beaten estimate that hasn't translated into a recovering chart. $AMAT joined it as a fresh laggard this scan, cooling to RSI 41.7 on a 16.7% 30-day decline, though it remains up 168.3% over the year and 10.9% above its 200-day — a deep pullback, not a breakdown.

$TLN remains the cut's only name that fails the long-trend test outright: still below its 200-day (-12.4%) with a year-over-year return that worsened further to -22.0% (from -16.7% last scan), even though its RSI (44.7) sits mid-pack. $CEG, flagged as a "recovering price, still-lagging trend" name for three straight scans, slipped back below its 200-day this scan (-3.6%, from +0.9%) while its year-over-year return stayed negative (-10.5%) — the recovery from two scans ago has partly reversed.

The bulk of the cohort is still intact. $MRVL, $MXL, $TSM, $INTC, $AMD, $BE, $QCOM all sit above their 200-day with strongly positive year-over-year returns, several extreme: $MXL +364.9%, $INTC +318.3%, $BE +309.8%, $MRVL +254.6%, $AMD +231.6%. $NVDA itself cooled from last scan's post-bounce RSI of 60.4 to 49.8 on a 5.2% weekly pullback, but remains 10.5% above its 200-day with a 23.2% year-over-year return and is still just 7.7% off its 52-week high — the cleanest, least-volatile chart in the cut continues to be the cleanest chart.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-04)

  • $SWKS surged into extreme-overbought territory. RSI 67.7 → 83.4 (+15.7), price up 19.4% for the week and 26.8% for the month — no cause established in checked news/events.
  • $AVGO stayed the cut's laggard despite an earnings beat. RSI 38.1 → 42.2 (+4.1), still -13.0% over 30 days even after a 2026-09-02 EPS beat ($3.32 vs $3.24 est).
  • $AMAT cooled into laggard territory. RSI 39.8 → 41.7 (roughly flat), 30-day return -16.7% — still +168.3% 1Y and above its 200-day.
  • $CEG slipped back below its 200-day. vs-200-day +0.9% → -3.6%, RSI 66.7 → 53.7 (-13.0) — the recovery flagged two scans ago has partly reversed; year-over-year return stayed negative (-10.5%).
  • $TLN's year-over-year return worsened further. -16.7% → -22.0%, still the cut's only clean breakdown; RSI cooled slightly (46.2 → 44.7).
  • $NVDA cooled off last scan's bounce. RSI 60.4 → 49.8 (-10.6), price down 5.2% for the week — still +23.2% 1Y and 10.5% above its 200-day.
  • $MXL and $BE both extended strong weekly gains. MXL: RSI 44.6 → 56.4, +18.9% for the week. BE: RSI 63.1 → 65.0, +9.1% for the week.
  • The oversold band emptied. No name in the cut sits below RSI 40 this scan (last scan $AVGO alone occupied 25-40).
  • No stale bars this scan — every name carries a fresh 2026-09-11 close.
  • Universe unchanged. Same 20 tickers and exclusion methodology as the prior scan.

How To Read The Board

RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions — under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought, over 80 signals extreme. vs SMA20 is the price gap to the 20-day average. 1Y% and vs SMA200 are the numbers to check before calling anything a breakdown or a trend change: most of this cut sits above its 200-day with a strongly positive year despite this week's mixed moves. $TLN, trading below its 200-day with a worsening negative year, is the one name actually under structural test. $CEG is the trickiest read this scan: its RSI cooled and it slipped back below its 200-day, reversing two scans of "recovering" — watch whether that becomes a genuine re-test or a one-scan blip. $SWKS's extreme RSI print, with no news or event found to explain the week's 19.4% gain, is the name to verify before treating the move as fundamental rather than mechanical (its 20-day average sits 24.7% below the current price).

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA20 1D% 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 52wkHi Signal
AMAT $456.49 41.7 $475.55 -4.0% +0.6% +0.4% -16.7% +168.3% +10.9% -38.3% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
AVGO $361.99 42.2 $367.49 -1.5% +0.3% +1.1% -13.0% +0.7% -2.2% -26.9% 🔴 Persistent laggard despite EPS beat
TLN $312.74 44.7 $314.75 -0.6% +0.4% -1.3% -14.3% -22.0% -12.4% -30.7% 🔴 Only clean breakdown, worsening
ASML $1,698.95 46.8 $1,737.12 -2.2% +0.7% -0.9% -6.1% +111.3% +13.6% -15.1% 🟡 Mild pullback, intact
GEV $957.27 48.7 $957.56 0.0% +3.6% +1.6% -8.0% +50.9% +7.1% -20.0% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
ON $76.14 49.0 $74.58 +2.1% +8.5% +2.4% -8.6% +55.3% -3.5% -43.6% 🟡 Big 1D pop, testing 200-day
AMKR $51.73 49.5 $50.50 +2.4% +4.4% +8.3% -6.9% +103.8% -8.4% -46.5% 🟡 Below 200-day, still +104% 1Y
LSCC $119.76 49.7 $118.10 +1.4% +4.9% +3.3% -7.4% +81.4% +9.8% -23.7% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
NVDA $218.29 49.8 $220.16 -0.9% 0.0% -5.2% -2.6% +23.2% +10.5% -7.7% 🟢 Cooled, cleanest chart, near highs
TXN $268.70 51.7 $263.37 +2.0% +3.8% +4.0% -2.9% +45.8% +11.3% -19.6% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
ARM $264.79 53.4 $251.21 +5.4% +4.2% +5.0% -2.6% +71.2% +29.6% -41.5% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
CEG $284.75 53.7 $281.54 +1.1% -0.4% -4.8% +2.2% -10.5% -3.6% -31.0% 🔴 Slipped back below 200-day
MRVL $236.10 55.5 $227.75 +3.7% +4.0% +5.6% +8.8% +254.6% +52.5% -28.4% 🟡 Deep pullback, intact
MXL $74.57 56.4 $66.98 +11.3% +7.5% +18.9% +0.3% +364.9% +53.5% -41.9% 🟢 Strong weekly gain, intact
TSM $433.24 56.9 $421.71 +2.7% +1.2% +1.0% +1.0% +67.3% +15.2% -9.6% 🟡 Mild pullback, intact
INTC $102.94 57.5 $94.61 +8.8% +2.6% +7.5% +2.0% +318.3% +36.3% -27.7% 🟢 Uptrend, intact
AMD $516.13 58.0 $482.04 +7.1% +2.5% +8.1% +6.9% +231.6% +48.8% -11.7% 🟢 Uptrend, intact
BE $275.75 65.0 $227.82 +21.0% +6.7% +9.1% +16.3% +309.8% +41.6% -21.5% 🟢 Uptrend, thesis intact
QCOM $181.97 66.3 $166.85 +9.1% +2.9% +7.8% +11.6% +12.7% +8.2% -30.0% 🟢 Strong weekly gain
SWKS $88.35 83.4 $70.83 +24.7% +5.1% +19.4% +26.8% +18.3% +37.5% -4.3% 🟠 Extreme overbought, no cause found

Tier Analysis

Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)

None.

Oversold (RSI 25-40)

None — the band emptied this scan; $AVGO (42.2) is now just above the line.

RSI 40+ (everyone else)

  • Genuine breakdown (below 200-day, negative 1-year): $TLN — the cut's only remaining name that fails the long-trend check outright, and it worsened this scan.
  • Slipped back, still-lagging trend: $CEG — dropped back below its 200-day this scan after two scans of recovery, year-over-year return still negative.
  • Persistent laggard despite the tape: $AVGO — up on RSI slightly but still down double digits over 30 days despite a recent earnings beat.
  • Deep pullback, long trend intact: $AMAT, $ASML, $GEV, $ON, $AMKR, $LSCC, $NVDA, $TXN, $ARM, $MRVL, $TSM — eleven names, the bulk of the cut, all above (or essentially at) their 200-day with strongly positive year-over-year returns.
  • Strong weekly gain, intact: $MXL, $INTC, $AMD, $BE, $QCOM — clear uptrends posting the cut's best weekly moves.
  • Extreme overbought, cause not established: $SWKS — the cut's highest RSI by a wide margin on a 19.4% weekly gain with no corroborating news or event found.

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 1Y% Setup
NVDA $218.29 <$189.74 (a prior support level) 49.8 +23.2% Cooled off last scan's bounce; still 7.7% off its 52-week high, the cleanest chart in the cohort
AVGO $361.99 <$344.95 (a prior support level) 42.2 +0.7% Persistent laggard even after an earnings beat; watch whether the 200-day (barely below current price) holds
AMAT $456.49 <$420 area (30-day pullback zone) 41.7 +168.3% Fresh laggard this scan on a 16.7% 30-day decline, but still well above its 200-day
MRVL $236.10 <$89.40 (a prior support level, far below) 55.5 +254.6% Continued strength, still 52% above its 200-day
TLN $312.74 No support shelf identified 44.7 -22.0% The cut's only clean breakdown, and its year-over-year return worsened again this scan

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD NVDA, TSM, ASML, MRVL, BE Above the 200-day, strongly positive year-over-year return, thesis marked intact where tracked
📈 ACCUMULATE AMD, INTC, AMAT, LSCC, ARM, MXL, GEV, TXN Deep pullback or steady uptrend this scan but well above the 200-day with strong multi-year returns
🔍 WATCH ON, AMKR, QCOM, SWKS $ON/$AMKR are testing or near their 200-day; $QCOM and $SWKS posted the cut's biggest weekly gains — confirm the driver before treating either as a durable breakout, especially $SWKS where no cause is established
⚠️ RECOVERING, STILL LAGGING CEG Slipped back below its 200-day this scan after two scans of price recovery; year-over-year return still negative
⚠️ PERSISTENT LAGGARD AVGO Still down double digits over 30 days despite a recent earnings beat
❌ AVOID / BREAKDOWN WATCH TLN Below the 200-day with a worsening negative year-over-year return

What To Watch Next

  • $SWKS's 19.4% weekly surge into extreme-overbought territory has no established cause — does a driver surface (its pending Qorvo merger is the only known catalyst on file, dated October 2025), or does this look like a mechanical/technical move that fades?
  • $AVGO stayed the cut's laggard even after a 2026-09-02 earnings beat — does the earnings result eventually pull the chart up, or does the market keep discounting it?
  • $CEG slipped back below its 200-day after two scans of recovery — does it re-test and hold, or is the earlier recovery fully unwound next scan?
  • $TLN's year-over-year return worsened for a second straight scan (-16.7% to -22.0%) — does the cut's one clean breakdown deepen further, or find a floor?

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-11 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
  • Earnings event for $AVGO: 2026-09-02-avgo-earnings (reported 2026-09-02, EPS beat).
  • News check for $SWKS: latest (fetched 2026-08-05, predates this week's move) and research/stock-events/ (no matching event found).
  • Prior scans for comparison: 2026-09-04-nvda-ecosystem, 2026-08-28-nvda-ecosystem.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.