NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
The chip leg's fastest mover gave back a chunk of its run. $ARM fell from RSI 71.1 to 61.2, price down from $332.56 to $310.32, pulling back out of the near-overbought band it crossed into two sessions ago — nothing bearish has surfaced on the desk's record, and the news file still shows only bullish SoftBank financing and AI-demand commentary, so the giveback has no established cause either way. Elsewhere the cut kept climbing: $onsemi ($ON) jumped 5.54% in a single session on a sourced $7 billion Synaptics acquisition and a strong Q2 print, and $MXL spiked 10% in one day and $BE 8.27%, both without a dated driver covering the size of the move. $AVGO remains the cut's one structural laggard.
Data as-of the 2026-09-25 close (Friday's settled session, per the pre-computed scan summary) — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar; universe unchanged at 20 tickers.
This is the same 20-ticker NVDA-adjacent cut and exclusion method as the prior scan: the broad-basket funds and the non-adjacent members of the three source lists are left out.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A mixed session — the cut's biggest mover pulled back hard while a sourced acquisition and two unexplained single-day pops kept the rest of the group climbing |
| Leaders | $ON (RSI 54.8, +5.54% today on a sourced $7B Synaptics acquisition and strong Q2 results); $MXL (67.7, +10% today, no dated driver for the size of the move); $BE (62.8, +8.27% today, only a September 20 price-target raise on record) |
| Laggards | $ARM (61.2, down from 71.1, price -6.7% over two sessions, no established cause); $AVGO (43.7, still below its 200-day with a barely positive year — the cut's one structural laggard) |
| Key insight | $ARM's pullback erased its entire crossing into near-overbought from two sessions ago with nothing bearish found in its news file — the giveback is unexplained in either direction |
| Caveat | $MXL's news file holds only a July earnings beat that doesn't explain today's 10% single-day pop; $CEG's and $TLN's files were last pulled September 19 with nothing dated to their continued stabilization |
What's Going On
$ARM was the week's sharpest reversal. Two sessions ago it had run 36.31% to close at $332.56, RSI 71.1 — the cut's largest unexplained move at the time. This week it gave a chunk of that back: RSI fell to 61.2, price to $310.32, a 6.7% two-session decline. The desk's news file for the name holds nothing bearish — SoftBank secured a loan backed by 769 million Arm shares on September 18 and later increased it to $25 billion to fund AI investment, and the CEO expressed confidence in AI CPU demand, all constructive. No cause is established for the pullback in either direction; it reads as a giveback after an extreme run rather than a reaction to new information.
$onsemi ($ON) had the cut's one clean sourced catalyst. The company reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.604 billion, up 9% year-over-year with AI data-center revenue more than doubling, and announced a definitive agreement to acquire Synaptics for roughly $7 billion — a deal expected to expand its addressable market by $30 billion and be accretive to non-GAAP earnings. The stock closed up 5.54% on the day to $77.20, RSI 54.8, still 3.3% below its 200-day but climbing on real news rather than a bounce.
Two other names posted large single-day moves without a dated driver covering their size. $MXL jumped 10% in one session to $93.84, RSI 67.7, now up 48.95% on the month; its news file holds only a July 23 earnings beat that predates the pop by two months. $BE rose 8.27% to $288.70, RSI 62.8; the desk's record shows a Clear Street price-target raise to $330 from $290 on September 20 and Oracle reaffirming its 2.4 GW Project Jupiter fuel-cell deal on September 21 — both constructive, neither dated to Friday's specific jump.
The power leg kept stabilizing without fully repairing its trend. $CEG closed essentially flat at $263.27 (RSI 43.8, unchanged from two sessions ago), still 9.3% below its 200-day with a -19.32% year. $TLN improved modestly to $304.42 (RSI 47.7, up from 45.1), still 13.7% below its 200-day with a -25.88% year. $GEV ticked up to $957.63 (RSI 51.8). None of the three has reclaimed its 200-day or turned its year positive. $AVGO remains the cut's structural laggard, RSI 43.7, roughly flat on the week and still below its 200-day with a barely positive year and negative alpha.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-23)
- $ARM reversed its crossing into near-overbought. RSI 71.1 → 61.2, price $332.56 → $310.32 (-6.7%) — no cause established for either the run or the giveback.
- $ON jumped on a sourced acquisition and earnings beat. RSI 49.7 → 54.8, price $74.10 → $77.20 (+4.2%), on the September 23 Synaptics acquisition announcement and Q2 results.
- $MXL spiked 10% in a single session. RSI 61.3 → 67.7, price $84.32 → $93.84 (+11.3% over two sessions) — no dated driver covers the size of the move.
- $BE jumped on a price-target raise and a reaffirmed Oracle deal. RSI 60.0 → 62.8, price $275.19 → $288.70 (+4.9%) — Clear Street's $330 target (Sept 20) and Oracle's Project Jupiter reaffirmation (Sept 21) are on the record, though neither is dated to Friday specifically.
- $INTC pulled back slightly from near-overbought. RSI 70.3 → 66.9, price $122.60 → $123.00 (roughly flat) — a -3.45% single-day move today offset the week's earlier gain.
- $AMD continued grinding higher. RSI 71.0 → 73.0, price $614.61 → $630.59 (+2.6% over the two sessions since Wednesday's close, not a single-day move) — still extended, no new driver found.
- $CEG held essentially flat while $TLN and $GEV ticked up. CEG: RSI 43.8 → 43.8 (unchanged). TLN: RSI 45.1 → 47.7. GEV: RSI 50.7 → 51.8. None has reclaimed its 200-day or a positive year.
- $AVGO remains the cut's sole structural laggard. RSI 44.4 → 43.7, roughly flat — a sixth straight scan below its 200-day with a barely positive year.
- No stale bars this scan — every name carries a fresh 2026-09-25 close. Universe unchanged at 20 tickers.
How To Read The Board
RSI is a fourteen-session stretch gauge: under 30 oversold, over 70 near-overbought. The one-year return and the distance to the 200-day average separate a pullback from a breakdown, and this week the entire cut except $AVGO, $CEG and $TLN clears both tests with a positive year and a price above its 200-day. $ARM's pullback is a pricing move inside a trend still up 120.63% on the year and 46.5% above its 200-day — nothing here suggests the thesis broke, only that an extreme run cooled. $CEG and $TLN remain the two names where the long-term picture is genuinely unrepaired: both below their 200-day with negative years, even as $TLN's cushion improved slightly this week. $AVGO sits in its own category — barely positive on the year, negative alpha, below its 200-day, the one name in the chip leg that hasn't participated in the group's strength.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 1D% | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | 52wkHi | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | $352.81 | 43.7 | $358.03 | -1.5% | +0.7% | -1.3% | -0.8% | +5.0% | -4.2% | -28.7% | 🔴 Cut's sole laggard, sixth straight scan |
| CEG | $263.27 | 43.8 | $274.27 | -4.0% | +0.6% | +3.4% | -5.8% | -19.3% | -9.3% | -36.2% | 🔴 Flat, long trend still broken |
| TLN | $304.42 | 47.7 | $301.05 | +1.1% | +1.5% | +4.2% | -0.6% | -25.9% | -13.7% | -32.5% | 🔴 Improved slightly, trend still broken |
| GEV | $957.63 | 51.8 | $931.36 | +2.8% | +0.3% | +1.8% | +0.5% | +57.6% | +5.2% | -19.9% | 🟡 Power name holding its 200-day |
| ON | $77.20 | 54.8 | $72.38 | +6.7% | +5.5% | +10.3% | +5.4% | +55.1% | -3.3% | -42.8% | 🟢 Sourced acquisition + earnings beat |
| AMKR | $53.61 | 54.6 | $49.53 | +8.2% | +1.8% | +6.6% | +10.8% | +83.9% | -6.1% | -44.6% | 🟡 Below its 200-day, strong year |
| AMAT | $485.00 | 55.7 | $451.81 | +7.3% | +2.3% | +9.1% | +1.1% | +143.0% | +15.1% | -34.4% | 🟢 Sharp week, trend intact |
| ASML | $1,743.94 | 54.6 | $1,686.47 | +3.4% | +1.2% | +3.8% | -0.1% | +83.7% | +14.4% | -12.8% | 🟡 Mild pullback, trend intact |
| NVDA | $225.07 | 55.2 | $221.75 | +1.5% | +0.2% | +1.3% | +7.4% | +26.7% | +12.8% | -4.9% | 🟢 Steadiest chart, near its high |
| LSCC | $128.05 | 61.5 | $115.11 | +11.2% | +4.8% | +15.4% | +7.3% | +77.7% | +15.2% | -18.4% | 🟢 Sharp week, trend intact |
| ARM | $310.32 | 61.2 | $268.03 | +15.8% | +1.3% | +12.6% | +23.6% | +120.6% | +46.5% | -31.5% | 🟡 Reversed off near-overbought, cause unknown |
| BE | $288.70 | 62.8 | $256.50 | +12.6% | +8.3% | +8.7% | +32.3% | +320.3% | +42.2% | -17.8% | 🟡 Sourced tailwinds, jump not fully dated |
| TSM | $450.61 | 62.2 | $430.19 | +4.7% | -0.1% | +3.7% | +7.9% | +62.9% | +17.6% | -5.9% | 🟢 Quiet uptrend |
| SWKS | $89.34 | 62.5 | $81.20 | +10.0% | +1.7% | +0.7% | +34.1% | +12.6% | +36.7% | -3.7% | 🟠 Extended, cooled slightly |
| MXL | $93.84 | 67.7 | $71.89 | +30.5% | +10.0% | +15.7% | +49.0% | +488.0% | +81.4% | -26.9% | 🟠 Sharp one-day spike, cause unknown |
| QCOM | $201.97 | 67.6 | $181.15 | +11.5% | +4.0% | +13.7% | +23.4% | +19.0% | +19.4% | -22.3% | 🟢 Continued climb |
| INTC | $123.00 | 66.9 | $104.54 | +17.7% | -3.5% | +13.3% | +39.4% | +261.9% | +55.3% | -13.6% | 🟠 Pulled back off near-overbought |
| MRVL | $261.94 | 63.1 | $232.89 | +12.5% | +1.2% | +7.2% | +6.9% | +212.5% | +61.2% | -20.6% | 🟢 Uptrend intact, extended |
| TXN | $278.07 | 60.1 | $263.20 | +5.7% | +2.7% | +4.3% | +6.2% | +52.8% | +12.9% | -16.8% | 🟢 Flat-to-up week, trend intact |
| AMD | $630.59 | 73.0 | $528.10 | +19.4% | +0.2% | +12.6% | +31.1% | +291.0% | +72.9% | -1.3% | 🟠 Extended further, cause unknown |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
None this scan. $AVGO (43.7), $CEG (43.8) and $TLN (47.7) remain the weakest names in the cut but none has fallen below 40.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+)
- Failing the long test: $AVGO — barely positive year, negative alpha, below its 200-day, the chip leg's one structurally weak name for a sixth straight scan. $CEG and $TLN — both below their 200-day with negative years, though $TLN's cushion improved slightly.
- Below the 200-day but with strong years: $ON (+55.1%) and $AMKR (+83.9%) — deep pullbacks with $ON now carrying a fresh sourced catalyst.
- Pullback, trend intact: $GEV, $AMAT, $ASML, $TXN — all above their 200-day with strong years.
- Working: $NVDA, $TSM, $MRVL, $QCOM — above both averages with positive years; $NVDA remains the least extended.
- Crossed or held near-overbought: $LSCC, $ARM, $BE, $SWKS, $MXL, $INTC, $AMD — seven names at or above RSI 60, with $ARM's giveback and $MXL's spike both unexplained.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 1Y% | Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $225.07 | $221.75 (its 20-day) down to $189.87 (a prior support shelf) | 55.2 | +26.7% | The least extended working chart in the cut, 4.9% off its 52-week high |
| ASML | $1,743.94 | $1,686.47 (its 20-day) down to $1,445.51 (a prior shelf) | 54.6 | +83.7% | Mild pullback, 14.4% above its 200-day |
| GEV | $957.63 | $931.36 (its 20-day) with $682.73 the shelf well below | 51.8 | +57.6% | Holding its 200-day |
| ON | $77.20 | $72.80 (a prior support shelf), just below the price | 54.8 | +55.1% | Below its 200-day, now with a sourced acquisition catalyst |
| ARM | $310.32 | $268.03 (its 20-day) with $166.15 the shelf well below | 61.2 | +120.6% | Pulled back off near-overbought with no cause established; the 20-day is the near-term level to watch |
| CEG | $263.27 | No support shelf identified | 43.8 | -19.3% | Still fails the long test — a watch item, not confirmed as a floor |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA, TSM, MRVL, QCOM | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Above both averages with positive years; $NVDA and $TSM are the least stretched |
| GEV, AMAT, ASML, TXN | 🟡 | 📈 Accumulate | Pullbacks inside intact trends, above the 200-day with strong years |
| ON | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Below the 200-day but now carries a sourced acquisition and earnings catalyst |
| LSCC, ARM, BE, SWKS, MXL, INTC, AMD | 🟠 | ⚠️ Don't chase | Near-overbought to extended; $ARM's pullback and $MXL's spike are both unexplained on the desk's record |
| AMKR | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Below the 200-day with a strong year; wait for the shelf, not the bounce |
| AVGO, CEG, TLN | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Below their 200-day with negative-to-flat years; $AVGO is the chip leg's laggard for a sixth straight scan |
What To Watch Next
- $ARM gave back a chunk of its extreme run with nothing bearish on the desk's record. Whether the pullback continues, stabilizes, or reverses again on the next print is the chip leg's open question.
- $MXL spiked 10% in a single session with only a two-month-old earnings beat on file. Getting a fresh news pull on the name should be a priority before the next scan tries to explain the move.
- $ON's Synaptics acquisition is the cut's one clean sourced catalyst this week. Whether the deal continues to support the stock or dilution concerns (as flagged in an earlier June article on the same deal) resurface is worth watching.
- $CEG and $TLN both stabilized further but neither has reclaimed its 200-day or a positive year. Does the recovery continue into an actual trend repair, or does it stall again?
- $AVGO has now been the chip leg's structural laggard for a sixth straight scan. Does the rest of the group eventually pull it up, or is this a name left behind?
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, long-horizon fields): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-25 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
- $ON Synaptics acquisition and Q2 results: latest (pulled 2026-09-23; onsemi press release and Quartz coverage dated 2026-09-23).
- $ARM SoftBank financing and AI-demand commentary (no bearish item found): latest (pulled 2026-09-25).
- $BE price-target raise and Oracle deal reaffirmation: latest (pulled 2026-09-25; Clear Street item dated 2026-09-20, Oracle item dated 2026-09-21).
- News checks with nothing dated to this week's specific move: latest (pulled 2026-09-25, newest substantive item a July 23 earnings beat),
CEGandTLN(both last pulled 2026-09-19, nothing dated to their continued stabilization). Event recordresearch/stock-events/checked for the 2026-09-23 to 2026-09-25 window: only GIS, MU, SFIX, ACN, BB, COST, JBL, LPTH and UEC earnings are filed, none in this cut. - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-23-nvda-ecosystem.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.