NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
Last week's split reversed. The power leg that got taken apart on the Fed's rate hike — $CEG, $TLN, $GEV, $BE — bounced back this week, and the chip leg didn't stop to let it catch up: $ARM ran 36.31% to $332.56, $INTC 21.33% to $122.60, $AMD 19.92% to $614.61, and all three crossed into the near-overbought band for the first time this scan has tracked them together. Nothing on the desk's record explains $ARM's move — its news file has nothing past an old earnings filing. $INTC has a partial answer: Tigress Financial raised its price target from $118 to $145 on September 22, citing AI-driven CPU demand. $AVGO is now the cut's lone structural laggard, flat on the week and still below its 200-day with a barely positive year.
Data as-of the 2026-09-23 close (Wednesday's settled session) — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar.
This is the same 20-ticker NVDA-adjacent cut and exclusion method as the prior scan: the broad-basket funds and the non-adjacent members of the three source lists are left out.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 A broad rally — every name in the cut gained on the week, the power leg that broke last week recovered, and the chip leg's fastest movers are now stretched enough to matter |
| Leaders | $ARM (RSI 71.1, +36.31% on the week, no established cause); $INTC (70.3, +21.33%, a sourced price-target raise citing AI CPU demand); $AMD (71.0, +19.92%, cause unknown) |
| Laggards | $AVGO (44.4, roughly flat on the week, still 3.7% below its 200-day with a barely positive year — the cut's one structural laggard); $CEG (43.8, +1.68% on the week but still 9.4% below its 200-day with a -21.62% year) |
| Key insight | $CEG and $TLN both bounced out of last week's breakdown, but neither has reclaimed its 200-day or turned its year positive — this is a recovery in price, not yet a repaired trend |
| Caveat | $CEG's and $TLN's news files were last pulled September 19 with nothing dated to this week's bounce; $ARM's file holds only an old earnings filing. None of that silence is evidence of no driver |
What's Going On
The power leg's breakdown didn't continue. A week ago $CEG had just fallen 10.55% on no established cause; this week it rose 1.68% to $263.88, RSI 36.4 to 43.8. $TLN rose 4.43% to $300.34, RSI 45.1. $GEV added 2.89% and $BE 1.91%. None of these moves has a corpus receipt behind it — $CEG's and $TLN's news files were both last pulled September 19 and hold nothing dated to the bounce — but the direction is a clean reversal of last week's story. It is not, however, a repaired trend: $CEG is still 9.4% below its 200-day with a -21.62% year, and $TLN is still 15% below its 200-day with a -29.02% year. Both failed the long test last week and both still fail it this week; they simply stopped falling.
The chip leg, meanwhile, kept accelerating. $ARM closed at $332.56, up 36.31% on the week and 39.27% on the month, now 71.1 on the RSI scale — the single biggest weekly move in the cut, and the desk's news file for the name holds nothing newer than an old SEC filing about July earnings. $INTC closed at $122.60, up 21.33% on the week and 70.3 on the RSI, with a partial answer on the record: Tigress Financial raised its price target from $118 to $145 on September 22, citing strong AI-driven CPU demand. $AMD closed at $614.61, up 19.92% on the week and RSI 71.0, with nothing in its news file beyond quote aggregators. All three crossed into the near-overbought band (RSI 70+) in the same week, something this scan has not recorded happening simultaneously before.
$QCOM recovered the ground it gave back two scans ago, rising 6.71% to $197.24 and RSI 66.4 — a Piper Sandler neutral rating with a $190 target (September 19) didn't stop the rally, which closed above that target. $AMAT, $LSCC and $AMKR all posted double-digit weekly gains (14.2%, 14.43% and 15.21%) with no drivers found in their news files. $AVGO is now the one name in the cut that did not participate meaningfully: roughly flat on the week, still 3.7% below its 200-day with a year that's barely positive (+4.74%) and a negative alpha — the structural laggard for a fifth straight scan, even as the SEC filing on its September 21 Q3 results and VMware AI Factory launch sits in its news file without moving the stock much.
$NVDA itself stayed the steadiest name in the cut: $225.51, up 5.43% on the week, RSI 55.7, 13.3% above its 200-day with a 26.39% year — the least extended chart among the group that's actually working, now only 4.66% off its 52-week high.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-18)
- $ARM ran 20.7% in price with no cause on the desk's record. Price $275.61 → $332.56, RSI 57.7 → 71.1 — the cut's largest single-name move this scan, crossing into the near-overbought band.
- $INTC and $AMD both crossed into near-overbought alongside $ARM. INTC: RSI 61.7 → 70.3, price $108.60 → $122.60 (+12.9%), with a sourced Tigress Financial price-target raise (September 22). AMD: RSI 65.4 → 71.0, price $559.82 → $614.61 (+9.8%), cause unknown.
- The power leg reversed last week's breakdown. $CEG: RSI 36.4 → 43.8, price $254.71 → $263.88 (+1.68% on the week). $TLN: RSI 39.5 → 45.1, price $292.30 → $300.34 (+4.43% on the week). Neither has reclaimed its 200-day or turned its year positive.
- $QCOM recovered the ground it lost two scans ago. RSI 54.0 → 66.4, price $177.72 → $197.24 (+11.0%).
- $AVGO is now the cut's sole laggard by a wider margin. Price $357.61 → $354.99 (roughly flat), still 3.7% below its 200-day (was -3.1%); the chip leg's only name failing the spirit of the long test for a fifth straight scan.
- $AMAT, $LSCC and $AMKR all posted double-digit weekly gains. AMAT +6.7% to $474.38, RSI 43.8 → 52.5. LSCC +14.43% to $121.66, RSI 43.4 → 55.3. AMKR +15.21% to $53.32, RSI 49.2 → 54.2.
- The oversold band that opened last week (CEG, TLN) closed again. No name in the cut sits below RSI 40 this scan.
- No stale bars this scan — every name carries a fresh 2026-09-23 close. Universe unchanged at 20 tickers.
How To Read The Board
RSI is a fourteen-session stretch gauge: under 30 oversold, over 70 near-overbought. The one-year return and the distance to the 200-day average are what separate a pullback from a breakdown, and this week the entire cut except $AVGO, $CEG and $TLN clears both tests with a positive year and a price above its 200-day. $CEG and $TLN bounced hard in price but neither has repaired the long-term picture — both remain below their 200-day with negative years, so this week's gain is a relief rally inside a trend still under genuine test, not a reversal. $AVGO sits in its own category: barely positive on the year, negative alpha, below its 200-day, the chip leg's one name that hasn't participated in the group's strength. Everything else — including the three names that just crossed into near-overbought — is an extended position inside a trend that is still working, which is a pricing question, not a thesis question.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 1D% | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | 52wkHi | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | $263.88 | 43.8 | $276.12 | -4.4% | +0.2% | +1.7% | -3.5% | -21.6% | -9.4% | -36.1% | 🔴 Bounced, long trend still broken |
| AVGO | $354.99 | 44.4 | $359.23 | -1.2% | -2.6% | +4.6% | -1.1% | +4.7% | -3.7% | -28.3% | 🔴 Cut's sole laggard, fifth straight scan |
| TLN | $300.34 | 45.1 | $301.37 | -0.3% | +2.0% | +4.4% | -1.7% | -29.0% | -15.0% | -33.5% | 🔴 Bounced, long trend still broken |
| ON | $74.10 | 49.7 | $72.26 | +2.5% | +0.7% | +11.3% | +3.0% | +47.0% | -7.0% | -45.1% | 🟡 Deep pullback, strong year |
| GEV | $951.82 | 50.7 | $931.07 | +2.2% | +0.2% | +2.9% | +1.0% | +50.3% | +4.9% | -20.4% | 🟡 Power name holding its 200-day |
| AMAT | $474.38 | 52.5 | $451.95 | +5.0% | +0.4% | +14.2% | -2.0% | +136.2% | +13.1% | -35.9% | 🟢 Sharp week, trend intact |
| AMKR | $53.32 | 54.2 | $49.22 | +8.3% | -2.3% | +15.2% | +11.3% | +80.3% | -6.4% | -44.9% | 🟡 Below its 200-day, strong year |
| ASML | $1,744.61 | 55.0 | $1,687.19 | +3.4% | -0.2% | +8.9% | +0.3% | +81.1% | +14.9% | -12.8% | 🟡 Mild pullback, trend intact |
| LSCC | $121.66 | 55.3 | $114.59 | +6.2% | -0.7% | +14.4% | +6.6% | +63.6% | +9.9% | -22.5% | 🟢 Sharp week, trend intact |
| NVDA | $225.51 | 55.7 | $221.15 | +2.0% | -1.5% | +5.4% | +8.2% | +26.4% | +13.3% | -4.7% | 🟢 Steadiest chart, near its high |
| TXN | $272.62 | 56.0 | $262.18 | +4.0% | +0.5% | +4.6% | +5.3% | +49.8% | +11.1% | -18.4% | 🟡 Flat-to-up week, trend intact |
| BE | $275.19 | 60.0 | $250.53 | +9.8% | -0.5% | +1.9% | +34.9% | +255.6% | +36.7% | -21.7% | 🟡 Extreme multi-year move, pullback |
| TSM | $446.57 | 60.6 | $427.35 | +4.5% | -1.2% | +6.9% | +8.9% | +58.0% | +17.0% | -6.8% | 🟢 Quiet uptrend |
| MXL | $84.32 | 61.3 | $69.26 | +21.8% | -3.6% | +21.3% | +34.3% | +410.1% | +65.3% | -34.3% | 🟢 Very extended, best chart in the cut |
| MRVL | $260.90 | 63.1 | $231.17 | +12.9% | -0.6% | +13.6% | +13.8% | +249.6% | +62.2% | -20.9% | 🟢 Uptrend intact, extended |
| QCOM | $197.24 | 66.4 | $177.77 | +11.0% | -0.5% | +6.7% | +24.4% | +16.4% | +16.8% | -24.1% | 🟢 Recovered strongly this week |
| SWKS | $91.45 | 67.0 | $79.04 | +15.7% | +1.7% | +6.9% | +36.8% | +12.5% | +40.4% | -1.5% | 🟠 Extended, cooled slightly |
| INTC | $122.60 | 70.3 | $101.04 | +21.3% | -1.0% | +21.3% | +40.5% | +317.9% | +56.5% | -13.9% | 🟠 Crossed into near-overbought |
| AMD | $614.61 | 71.0 | $512.99 | +19.8% | -1.5% | +19.9% | +34.6% | +282.0% | +70.4% | -1.6% | 🟠 Crossed into near-overbought |
| ARM | $332.56 | 71.1 | $262.52 | +26.7% | -0.2% | +36.3% | +39.3% | +135.9% | +58.2% | -26.5% | 🟠 Cut's largest move, cause unknown |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
None this scan. $CEG (43.8) and $TLN (45.1) — the two names that were oversold last scan — both bounced back above the RSI-40 boundary this week, though neither has repaired its long-term trend.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+)
- Failing the long test: $CEG and $TLN — both bounced in price but remain below their 200-day with negative years. $AVGO — barely positive year, negative alpha, below its 200-day, the chip leg's one structurally weak name for a fifth straight scan.
- Below the 200-day but with strong years: $ON (+47.0%) and $AMKR (+80.3%) — deep pullbacks, not breakdowns.
- Pullback, trend intact: $GEV, $AMAT, $ASML, $LSCC, $TXN, $BE — all above their 200-day with strong years.
- Working: $NVDA, $TSM, $MXL, $MRVL, $QCOM — above both averages with positive years; $NVDA is the least extended.
- Crossed into near-overbought: $SWKS, $INTC, $AMD, $ARM — trends intact, prices now stretched enough that entry price is the risk, not the thesis.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 1Y% | Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $225.51 | $221.15 (its 20-day) down to $189.87 (a prior support shelf) | 55.7 | +26.4% | The least extended working chart in the cut, 4.7% off its 52-week high |
| ASML | $1,744.61 | $1,687.19 (its 20-day) down to $1,445.51 (a prior shelf) | 55.0 | +81.1% | Mild pullback, 14.9% above its 200-day |
| GEV | $951.82 | $931.07 (its 20-day) with $682.73 the shelf well below | 50.7 | +50.3% | Holding its 200-day after last week's power-leg selloff |
| ON | $74.10 | $69.03 (a prior support shelf) | 49.7 | +47.0% | Below its 200-day after a strong bounce week; the shelf, not the RSI, is the level that matters |
| CEG | $263.88 | No support shelf identified | 43.8 | -21.6% | Bounced but still fails the long test — a watch item, not confirmed as a floor |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA, TSM, MXL, MRVL, QCOM | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Above both averages with positive years; $NVDA and $TSM are the least stretched |
| GEV, AMAT, ASML, LSCC, TXN, BE | 🟡 | 📈 Accumulate | Pullbacks inside intact trends, above the 200-day with strong years |
| SWKS, INTC, AMD, ARM | 🟠 | ⚠️ Don't chase | Trends intact but all four crossed into near-overbought this week; $ARM's 36.31% run has no cause on the desk's record |
| ON, AMKR | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Below the 200-day with strong years; wait for the shelf, not the bounce |
| AVGO | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Below its 200-day with a barely positive year and negative alpha — the chip leg's laggard for a fifth straight scan |
| CEG, TLN | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Bounced out of last week's breakdown but neither has reclaimed its 200-day or a positive year |
What To Watch Next
- $ARM ran 36.31% this week with nothing on the desk's record to explain it. Does a driver surface, or does this stay the cut's largest unexplained move?
- $INTC, $AMD and $ARM all crossed into the near-overbought band in the same week — something this scan hasn't recorded happening together before. Whether that resolves as a group pullback or a group breakout is the chip leg's next question.
- $CEG and $TLN bounced but neither has reclaimed its 200-day or a positive year. Does the recovery continue into an actual trend repair, or does it stall the way last week's breakdown did?
- $AVGO has now been the chip leg's structural laggard for a fifth straight scan, even with a September 21 SEC filing on Q3 results and a VMware AI Factory launch on the record. Does the rest of the group eventually pull it up, or is this a name left behind?
- $INTC's price-target raise from Tigress Financial is the one sourced catalyst in this week's chip-leg rally. Whether other analysts follow with similar upgrades on $AMD or $ARM is worth checking on the next pull.
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, long-horizon fields): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-23 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
- $INTC price-target raise: latest (pulled 2026-09-22; article dated 2026-09-22, Tigress Financial).
- $AVGO Q3 results and VMware AI Factory: latest (pulled 2026-09-22; SEC filing dated 2026-09-21).
- News checks with nothing on this week's move: latest (pulled 2026-09-22, newest substantive item an old July earnings filing),
AMD(pulled 2026-09-22, aggregator pages only),CEG(pulled 2026-09-19, nothing dated to the bounce),TLN(pulled 2026-09-19, nothing dated to the bounce),MXL,AMAT,LSCC(all checked, no drivers found). Event recordresearch/stock-events/checked for the 2026-09-18 to 2026-09-23 window: only ABVX, AIR, SFIX, GIS and MU earnings are filed, none in this cut. - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-18-nvda-ecosystem.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.