NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
Data as-of 2026-08-07 close — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar this scan.
The oversold band emptied out completely. Six names sat in the 25-40 RSI band last scan; none do now — the lowest print in the cut is ON at RSI 41.3. QCOM led the recovery, RSI 29.3 → 47.6 (+18.3 points), clearing the "collapse" regime flag it carried last scan. NVDA (48.6 → 64.5) and SWKS (47.6 → 63.5) posted the second-largest gains, up nearly 16 points each, and AVGO climbed to the cut's new high print at RSI 64.6. Only GEV moved the other way, essentially flat (46.3 → 45.9).
Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names. Latest bar 2026-08-07 for every name in this cut. Note: AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P (ai-infra.json) and EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC (energy.json) excluded as off-thesis for this ecosystem cut, same methodology as last scan. Prior scan: 2026-07-31-nvda-ecosystem.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 Full-group recovery — the oversold band went from 6 names to zero, and no name sits above RSI 65 either; the whole cut compressed into a 41-65 range, but 17 of 20 names still carry a "pullback" regime rather than a confirmed uptrend |
| Leaders | AVGO (RSI 64.6, cut's new high print, thesis marked intact); NVDA (64.5, regime upgraded to "uptrend," thesis intact); SWKS (63.5, the group's second-biggest jump) |
| Laggards | ON (41.3, weakest read left in the cut, still cleared the oversold band); AMKR (43.0, recovering off the cut's steepest prior break); GEV (45.9, the lone name that didn't move up) |
| Key insight | Nineteen of 20 names posted higher RSI reads this scan — a group-wide re-rating, not 19 independent stories — but only NVDA carries a confirmed "uptrend" regime; the rest of the group is still tagged "pullback," meaning the bounce is unresolved rather than a green light |
What's Going On
The whole cut reversed together, and further than last scan's partial recovery. QCOM led: RSI climbed from 29.3 to 47.6 (+18.3 points, the largest single move in the cut), clearing the "collapse" regime tag it carried into this scan on -10.02% over 30 days (change30d per semis.json) — the RSI recovery outpaced the price action, a sign of short-covering off the group's lowest print rather than a fresh breakout.
NVDA and SWKS posted the second- and third-largest gains. NVDA's RSI moved from 48.6 to 64.5 (+15.9 points) on +11.56% over the week (change7d), and its regime classifier upgraded from "pullback" to "uptrend" with the thesis flag still marked "intact." SWKS climbed from 47.6 to 63.5 (+15.9 points) on +13.39% over the week and +20.74% over 30 days — the group's biggest 30-day print alongside NVDA's own +9.72%.
AVGO climbed to the cut's new high RSI print, 51.3 to 64.6, still carrying a thesis flag of "intact." ARM (37.5 → 50.3) and TXN (38.1 → 50.4) both posted comparably large recoveries, each moving up roughly 12-13 points from last scan's reads — TXN's bar carried a two-session-stale flag last scan; this scan it's current.
GEV is the one name that didn't participate. RSI moved from 46.3 to 45.9, essentially flat on 0% change over the week, while every other name in the cut posted a positive RSI move.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-31)
- The oversold band emptied completely. Zero names remain in the 25-40 RSI band, down from six last scan (QCOM, AMKR, ARM, TXN, ON, TLN).
- QCOM led the recovery and cleared its "collapse" regime tag. RSI 29.3 → 47.6 (+18.3), regime now "pullback."
- NVDA's regime upgraded to "uptrend." RSI 48.6 → 64.5 (+15.9), the only name in the cut with a confirmed uptrend regime this scan.
- SWKS posted the group's second-biggest jump. RSI 47.6 → 63.5 (+15.9), +20.7% over 30 days.
- AVGO climbed to the cut's new high RSI print. RSI 51.3 → 64.6, thesis still marked "intact."
- ARM and TXN both posted large recoveries. ARM: 37.5 → 50.3. TXN: 38.1 → 50.4 (bar now current, no longer stale).
- GEV was the lone name that didn't move up. RSI 46.3 → 45.9, essentially flat.
- No name is extended above RSI 65 this scan — the whole cut compressed into a 41-65 range.
- Universe unchanged. Same 20 tickers as the July 31 cut (16 from semis.json plus BE/CEG/GEV/TLN from energy.json) — no entrants or dropouts, same exclusion list.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions; under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought/extended. vs SMA20 is the gap to the 20-day average — a large negative number means a fast recent decline. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders; a high number means most of the move is unrealized profit that can get sold into any weakness. Trend pairs direction/strength with a cross signal — GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross). A full-cut RSI recovery like this scan's is a sector-wide re-rating, not 20 independent stories — and 17 of the 20 names here still carry a "pullback" regime rather than a confirmed uptrend, so treat the bounce as unresolved rather than a green light. NVDA is the one exception, with both RSI and regime now aligned to "uptrend."
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | vs VWAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ON | $81.17 | 41.3 | -5.3% | -0.5% | -13.5% | -21.4% | -43.0% | weak-down GC | +9.2% |
| AMKR | $55.27 | 43.0 | -5.8% | +10.8% | -17.4% | -27.8% | -44.3% | weak-down GC | +3.6% |
| GEV | $990.32 | 45.9 | -2.4% | 0.0% | -7.5% | -4.7% | -14.9% | weak-down GC | +25.5% |
| TLN | $347.71 | 46.2 | -2.5% | +4.1% | -5.5% | -10.0% | -26.9% | down GC | -6.7% |
| AMD | $483.36 | 46.8 | -4.0% | +1.5% | -6.6% | +6.2% | -17.6% | weak-down GC | +78.8% |
| QCOM | $167.86 | 47.6 | +0.9% | +13.7% | -10.0% | -23.1% | -39.4% | weak-down GC | -3.8% |
| BE | $219.34 | 47.8 | +3.4% | +6.6% | -13.7% | -16.0% | -33.3% | weak-down GC | +39.6% |
| MXL | $74.98 | 48.7 | +0.3% | +12.2% | -12.9% | -24.9% | -47.4% | weak-down GC | +32.6% |
| LSCC | $130.03 | 49.3 | +1.2% | +4.6% | -1.9% | +2.2% | -18.3% | weak-down GC | +36.8% |
| INTC | $101.65 | 49.9 | +4.8% | +12.7% | -7.8% | -18.6% | -29.2% | weak-down GC | +61.8% |
| AMAT | $539.14 | 50.1 | +0.9% | +6.2% | -5.5% | +24.0% | -27.8% | weak-down GC | +53.6% |
| ARM | $282.57 | 50.3 | +5.6% | +17.9% | -5.9% | +32.5% | -39.4% | weak-down GC | +36.1% |
| TXN | $286.08 | 50.4 | +0.9% | +3.8% | -4.6% | -0.1% | -15.1% | weak-down GC | +29.0% |
| ASML | $1,740.99 | 51.9 | +1.6% | +6.9% | -1.4% | +9.5% | -16.1% | weak-down GC | +30.9% |
| TSM | $420.04 | 52.0 | +2.6% | +3.9% | -3.9% | +2.3% | -13.6% | weak-down GC | +22.7% |
| MRVL | $218.72 | 52.3 | +9.6% | +16.6% | -5.6% | +28.6% | -36.0% | weak-down GC | +38.7% |
| CEG | $269.89 | 54.3 | +2.5% | +2.7% | +10.4% | -11.0% | -35.8% | weak-up DC | -11.5% |
| SWKS | $70.62 | 63.5 | +13.7% | +13.4% | +20.7% | +6.7% | -26.3% | strong-up GC | +8.0% |
| NVDA | $223.96 | 64.5 | +8.3% | +11.6% | +9.7% | +4.2% | -7.3% | strong-up GC | +17.9% |
| AVGO | $427.76 | 64.6 | +9.2% | +9.9% | +10.1% | -0.4% | -15.5% | strong-up GC | +19.5% |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold band (RSI 25-40)
None — down from 6 names last scan (QCOM, AMKR, ARM, TXN, ON, TLN). The lowest print in the cut is now ON at 41.3.
Neutral and above (everyone else)
- Downtrend-regime tier: CEG, TLN — the only two names not upgraded out of a damaged structure despite the broad recovery.
- Pullback-regime tier: AMD, INTC, TSM, AVGO, MRVL, ARM, QCOM, ASML, AMAT, AMKR, ON, LSCC, TXN, MXL, SWKS, BE, GEV — 17 names, the bulk of the cut, all bounced without a confirmed regime upgrade.
- Uptrend-regime tier: NVDA — the only name in the cut with both RSI and regime now aligned to a confirmed uptrend.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 7D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $223.96 | Extended vs shelf at $186.48 | 64.5 | +11.6% | Regime upgraded to "uptrend" this scan, thesis marked intact |
| AVGO | $427.76 | Extended vs shelf at $346.82 | 64.6 | +9.9% | Highest RSI in the cut alongside NVDA, thesis marked intact |
| QCOM | $167.86 | <$164.48 (support shelf) | 47.6 | +13.7% | Biggest recovery in the cut this scan, cleared "collapse" entirely |
| ASML | $1,740.99 | Extended vs shelf at $1,476.29 | 51.9 | +6.9% | Recovering with the group, shelf sits well below current price |
| ON | $81.17 | <$61.50 (support shelf, well below) | 41.3 | -0.5% | Weakest read left in the cut, but still cleared the oversold band |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA, AVGO, BE, ARM | Thesis marked intact or intact-but-priced, climbed back from mid-cut reads, not extended above RSI 65 |
| 🔍 WATCH | AMD, INTC, TSM, MRVL, QCOM, ASML, AMAT, AMKR, ON, LSCC, TXN, MXL, SWKS, GEV | Broad pullback-regime recovery, unrated thesis, no confirmed floor either way |
| ❌ AVOID / FALLING KNIFE | CEG, TLN | "Downtrend" regime — the most structurally damaged names in the cut despite this scan's bounce |
What To Watch Next
- The oversold band emptied completely this scan (6 names to zero) — does the bounce hold, or does the group roll back over now that the squeeze has fully passed?
- QCOM posted the cut's largest single-scan recovery (+18.3 RSI points) — does it confirm the turn, or does it fade the way AMKR's partial bounce did last scan?
- NVDA is the only name with a confirmed "uptrend" regime this scan — does the rest of the group follow, or does NVDA stay the outlier?
- GEV was the lone name that didn't participate in this scan's broad recovery — does it catch up next scan, or does it start diverging the way QCOM did two scans ago?
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-07 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
Related
8 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.