NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
Data as-of 2026-07-28 close.
The whole group rolled over together. Fifteen of the 20 names in this cut now sit in the 25-40 oversold band, up from six last scan — a synchronized decline, not a single broken name. AMKR is the worst of it: RSI 42.4 → 27.4 on a single-day drop of -24.74%, the steepest one-day move in this cut, with its regime classifier flipping to "collapse." NVDA round-tripped again (RSI 51.0 → 43.0, -4.96% over the week) — the exact pattern flagged as a risk last scan — and CEG gave back its entire prior reversal (60.4 → 48.6). The one name bucking the trend: SWKS, RSI 42.3 → 52.7, the sole riser in the group.
Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names. Latest bar 2026-07-28 for every name in this cut. Note: AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P (ai-infra.json) and EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC (energy.json) excluded as off-thesis for this ecosystem cut, same methodology as last scan. Prior scan: 2026-07-25-nvda-ecosystem.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Broad, synchronized decline — 15 of 20 names now oversold, up from 6 last scan; only SWKS improved |
| Leaders | SWKS (RSI 52.7, the group's lone riser this scan); NVDA (43.0, thesis still marked intact despite the round trip); AVGO (47.5, thesis intact, cooled less than peers) |
| Laggards | AMKR (RSI 27.4, -24.7% single day, regime now "collapse"); BE (33.3, "collapse" regime, -39.3% over 30 days); INTC (33.9, -34.5% over 30 days) |
| Key insight | 15 of 20 names in the cut are now in the 25-40 oversold band — a group-wide pullback rather than an isolated break; the June/July bounce narrative from prior scans has fully reversed |
What's Going On
AMKR had the single worst move in the group. RSI fell from 42.4 to 27.4 on a one-day drop of -24.74% (change1d per energy.json... note AMKR is sourced from semis.json), with relative volume at 3.99x average — the regime classifier now reads "collapse," a step down from its prior "downtrend" read. That's the steepest single-day move anywhere in this cut.
The broader chip cohort cooled together rather than in isolated pockets. AMD dropped RSI 50.0 → 39.4 on a -8.15% single day and -16.5% over the week, giving back last scan's recovery above 50 entirely. ARM (-8.11% day), AMAT (-7.82%), MRVL (-7.77%), MXL (-9.13%), and INTC (-5.86%) all posted comparably steep single-day declines. NVDA itself round-tripped again — RSI 51.0 → 43.0, -4.96% over the week — the same pattern flagged as a risk two scans running, now confirmed a second time.
The power cohort didn't hold up either. CEG gave back its entire prior reversal: RSI 60.4 → 48.6, and its regime classifier flipped from "downtrend" to "collapse" even though the trend label still shows a death cross either way. GEV (-12.55% week) and TLN (-10.95% week) both extended their declines rather than stabilizing. BE remains the group's worst 30-day performer at -39.33%, still in a "collapse" regime.
SWKS is the one name that moved the opposite direction — RSI 42.3 → 52.7, +2.75% over the week — the sole riser in a 20-name cut where everything else cooled or broke down.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-25)
- AMKR cratered. RSI 42.4 → 27.4, -24.74% in a single day, -21.5% → -44.51% over 30 days — regime downgraded to "collapse."
- The oversold band tripled in size. 15 of 20 names now sit in the 25-40 RSI band, up from 6 last scan.
- AMD gave back its recovery. RSI 50.0 → 39.4, -8.15% single day, -16.5% over the week — erasing last scan's move back above RSI 50.
- NVDA round-tripped a second time. RSI 51.0 → 43.0, -4.96% over the week, confirming the pattern flagged as a risk last scan.
- CEG gave back its entire reversal. RSI 60.4 → 48.6, regime downgraded to "collapse."
- SWKS was the lone riser. RSI 42.3 → 52.7, +2.75% over the week — the only name in the group moving against the broader decline.
- ASML lost its "structurally cleanest" status. RSI 48.3 → 37.1, trend flipped from
strong-up GCtoweak-down GC. - GEV and TLN both extended their declines rather than stabilizing: GEV -12.55% week, TLN -10.95% week.
- Universe unchanged. Same 20 tickers as the July 25 cut (16 from semis.json plus BE/CEG/GEV/TLN from energy.json) — no entrants or dropouts, same exclusion list.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions; under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought/extended. vs SMA20 is the gap to the 20-day average — a large negative number means a fast recent decline. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders; a high number means most of the move is unrealized profit that can get sold into any weakness. Trend pairs direction/strength with a cross signal — GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross), though a name can carry a golden-cross flag while its regime classifier still reads "collapse," as AMKR and BE do here. A falling RSI across nearly the whole group, as this scan shows, is a sector-wide repricing, not 20 independent stories.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | vs VWAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMKR | $45.69 | 27.4 ↓ | -32.0% | -31.5% | -44.5% | -35.2% | -52.7% | down GC | -13.5% |
| BE | $166.84 | 33.3 | -29.3% | -26.3% | -39.3% | -42.1% | -52.5% | down GC | +10.3% |
| INTC | $86.30 | 33.9 | -19.1% | -18.2% | -34.5% | -8.9% | -39.4% | weak-down GC | +41.1% |
| MRVL | $174.47 | 34.3 | -20.9% | -16.1% | -37.2% | +11.5% | -47.1% | weak-down GC | +12.7% |
| TLN | $326.05 | 34.9 | -12.8% | -11.0% | -18.4% | -7.4% | -27.8% | down GC | -12.8% |
| ARM | $244.74 | 35.9 | -16.5% | -15.5% | -28.8% | +21.3% | -45.9% | weak-down GC | +19.8% |
| QCOM | $162.88 | 36.5 | -8.3% | -6.1% | -13.7% | +4.8% | -37.3% | down GC | -6.7% |
| MXL | $58.94 | 36.6 | -32.2% | -31.5% | -45.7% | -12.7% | -54.1% | weak-down GC | +6.3% |
| ASML | $1,582.95 | 37.1 | -10.9% | -12.1% | -15.9% | +13.6% | -20.9% | weak-down GC | +21.2% |
| AMAT | $476.46 | 37.9 | -16.9% | -15.6% | -31.4% | +24.7% | -35.6% | weak-down GC | +38.8% |
| GEV | $943.38 | 38.6 | -11.3% | -12.6% | -14.4% | -11.2% | -21.1% | weak-down GC | +20.9% |
| ON | $84.39 | 38.8 | -7.6% | -7.3% | -4.7% | -14.6% | -37.5% | weak-down GC | +15.1% |
| TSM | $392.31 | 39.0 | -7.4% | -7.6% | -13.8% | -0.2% | -18.1% | weak-down GC | +15.9% |
| LSCC | $120.06 | 39.1 | -10.6% | -11.6% | -18.2% | +3.8% | -23.5% | weak-down GC | +30.5% |
| AMD | $454.62 | 39.4 | -13.8% | -16.5% | -15.7% | +34.9% | -22.3% | weak-down GC | +74.1% |
| TXN | $277.07 | 40.9 | -5.7% | -4.9% | -3.0% | +3.4% | -17.1% | weak-down GC | +25.9% |
| NVDA | $197.01 | 43.0 | -3.3% | -5.0% | +1.1% | -5.7% | -16.7% | weak-down GC | +4.1% |
| AVGO | $380.91 | 47.5 | -0.5% | -1.5% | +2.3% | -5.9% | -23.1% | weak-down GC | +7.1% |
| CEG | $259.82 | 48.6 | +1.8% | -0.9% | +0.2% | -12.4% | -37.0% | strong-down DC | -15.4% |
| SWKS | $64.68 | 52.7 | +6.0% | +2.8% | -4.5% | +4.1% | -28.8% | weak-down GC | -1.3% |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold band
AMKR (27.4), BE (33.3), INTC (33.9), MRVL (34.3), TLN (34.9), ARM (35.9), QCOM (36.5), MXL (36.6), ASML (37.1), AMAT (37.9), GEV (38.6), ON (38.8), TSM (39.0), LSCC (39.1), AMD (39.4). Fifteen names — the entire cut moved into this band together, not one isolated break.
Above the oversold band (everyone else)
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 7D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $197.01 | <$186.48 (support shelf) | 43.0 | -5.0% | Round-tripped a second time; thesis still marked intact |
| ASML | $1,582.95 | <$1,477.43 (support shelf) | 37.1 | -12.1% | Lost its "structurally cleanest" status this scan; support shelf sits below current price |
| TSM | $392.31 | <$344.76 (support shelf) | 39.0 | -7.6% | Core large-cap still cooling; support shelf well below current price |
| SWKS | $64.68 | <$62.91 (support shelf) | 52.7 | +2.8% | Only name moving against the group's decline |
| AMKR | $45.69 | No support shelf identified | 27.4 | -31.5% | Steepest single-day move in the cut; regime now "collapse," no floor identified |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | SWKS | Only name to improve this scan; structurally cleanest read in the cut |
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA, AVGO | Thesis marked intact, cooled but regime still "pullback" not "collapse" |
| 🔍 WATCH | AMD, TSM, ARM, MRVL, ASML, AMAT, ON, LSCC, TXN, MXL, GEV, INTC | Broad cooling across the group, unrated thesis, no confirmed floor either way |
| ❌ AVOID / FALLING KNIFE | AMKR, BE, CEG, QCOM, TLN | "Collapse" or "downtrend" regime — structurally the most damaged names in the cut |
What To Watch Next
- Fifteen of 20 names are now oversold together — does this synchronized decline find a floor as a group, or does it keep compounding name by name?
- NVDA has now round-tripped above and below RSI 50 twice in a row — does a third attempt break the pattern, or is this the range it trades in for now?
- AMKR posted the steepest single-day move in the cut and flipped to a "collapse" regime — does it stabilize, or does the decline keep accelerating?
- SWKS is the lone riser against a 19-name decline — does that divergence hold, or does it get pulled back down with the rest of the group?
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-28 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.