NVDA Ecosystem Scan
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NVDA Ecosystem Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 44 rows · screens, not recommendations
Data as-of 2026-07-06 close.
The NVDA ecosystem is still resting, not recovering — NVDA is only RSI 42.3 (still a "weak-down" regime, still golden-cross-intact, still the cleanest name to accumulate) after 10 more sessions of chop. The real story is the power leg: Bloom Energy (BE) has gone from a -14% laggard to the ecosystem's best mover (+17% in 10 sessions, +8.9% in a single day), while AMAT and AMKR — last cycle's semi-equipment/OSAT leaders — cooled hard (AMAT RSI 64→52.8, AMKR RSI 50.7→42.4, -11.2% price). CEG and TLN both continued distributing.
Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names. Latest bar 2026-07-06. Note: MU not available in current summaries; AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P (ai-infra.json) and EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH (energy.json) excluded as off-thesis for this ecosystem cut (general hyperscaler/app-layer/solar-utility exposure, not the direct chip+AI-power-demand chain).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Still a rest phase, not a breakdown — NVDA RSI 42.3 (GC intact), most of the semis chop sideways to down over 10 sessions; the power quartet is the most volatile sub-group |
| Leaders this window | BE (+17.1% in 10D, RSI 43.2→52.4, +8.9% single-day); GEV (+10.2% in 10D, RSI 60.7, strong-up); TXN (+6.3%, RSI 52.3) |
| Weakest this window | AMKR (-11.2% in 10D, RSI down to 42.4); AMAT (-5.4%, RSI 64.0→52.8); CEG (-6.9%, RSI 39.6, still strong-down); TLN (-6.5%, RSI 48.2) |
| Froth read (VWAP) | INTC +115.1% vs VWAP; AMD +126.5% vs VWAP; AMAT +84.1% vs VWAP; MRVL +68.0% vs VWAP; ARM +62.8% vs VWAP — the parabolic cluster from the last scan is still parabolic, just less so on AMAT |
| Key insight | NVDA remains the only name in its own ecosystem near VWAP (+4.3%) with a golden cross and sub-45 RSI — still the textbook pullback entry two scans running. BE's reversal (from -14.2% 30D laggard to the group's best 10-day mover) is the sharpest single-name change in the scan. |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | VWAP% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | $245.87 | 39.6 | -4.5% | -7.9% | -1.9% | -9.7% | -40.4% | strong-down DC | -20.8% | ❌ Broken |
| ARM | $322.24 | 46.4 | -10.5% | +0.1% | -7.0% | +124.0% | -28.8% | strong-up GC | +62.8% | 🔍 Watch (extended, flag continues) |
| ON | $94.69 | 41.6 | -14.5% | +3.7% | -21.7% | +48.4% | -29.8% | weak-down GC | +32.6% | ⚠️ Avoid (flush continues) |
| NVDA | $195.55 | 42.3 | -3.4% | +1.0% | -6.3% | +9.8% | -17.3% | weak-down GC | +4.3% | 📈 Accumulate (near VWAP, GC) |
| AMKR | $69.88 | 42.4 | -12.5% | -10.6% | +2.3% | +46.8% | -27.7% | weak-down GC | +36.7% | ⚠️ Avoid (biggest 10D decliner) |
| AVGO | $373.90 | 45.2 | -2.1% | -2.0% | -5.6% | +12.1% | -24.5% | weak-down GC | +6.5% | 🔍 Watch (still testing SMA200) |
| QCOM | $186.48 | 43.5 | -8.0% | +5.8% | -14.4% | +50.3% | -28.3% | weak-down GC | +7.0% | ⚠️ Avoid (distribution continues) |
| MRVL | $249.27 | 47.6 | -10.6% | +1.6% | -13.7% | +128.0% | -24.4% | strong-up GC | +68.0% | 🔒 Hold (flag; too extended to add) |
| LSCC | $137.31 | 47.0 | -4.3% | +0.6% | -3.9% | +41.8% | -12.6% | strong-up GC | +56.0% | 🔍 Watch (extended vs VWAP) |
| TLN | $377.79 | 48.2 | -2.3% | +3.6% | +3.6% | +14.5% | -16.3% | strong-up GC | +2.9% | 🔒 Hold (cleanest VWAP in power group) |
| BE | $295.05 | 52.4 | +3.9% | +8.9% | +16.4% | +117.1% | -16.0% | strong-up GC | +111.8% | ⚠️ Caution (sharp reversal; still extreme vs VWAP) |
| MXL | $95.68 | 51.9 | +5.5% | +2.8% | +20.7% | +419.7% | -25.4% | strong-up GC | +89.7% | 🔍 Watch (speculative; extreme 3M) |
| AMAT | $592.79 | 52.8 | +0.5% | -1.7% | +20.4% | +67.5% | -19.9% | strong-up GC | +84.1% | ⚠️ Extended (cooled from last scan's leader) |
| TXN | $303.50 | 52.3 | +1.1% | +3.6% | +4.3% | +52.7% | -9.1% | strong-up GC | +41.7% | 🔒 Hold |
| TSM | $451.79 | 54.8 | +3.2% | +4.1% | +6.1% | +31.1% | -5.7% | strong-up GC | +38.5% | 🔒 Hold (best core large-cap) |
| GEV | $1,152.04 | 60.7 | +11.6% | +3.5% | +23.4% | +26.6% | -3.7% | strong-up GC | +53.6% | 🔒 Hold |
| ASML | $1,825.07 | 52.9 | -0.2% | +3.2% | +4.4% | +40.0% | -8.7% | strong-up GC | +49.7% | 🔒 Hold |
| AMD | $552.05 | 57.5 | +6.5% | +6.6% | +12.6% | +149.2% | -5.6% | strong-up GC | +126.5% | ⚠️ PARABOLIC (hold only) |
| INTC | $122.20 | 50.5 | -1.2% | +1.5% | +10.8% | +131.0% | -14.2% | strong-up GC | +115.1% | ⚠️ PARABOLIC (extreme) |
Power Plays Summary (CEG / GEV / TLN / BE)
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | VWAP% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | $245.87 | 39.6 | -7.9% | -1.9% | -9.7% | -40.4% | strong-down DC | -20.8% | ❌ Broken |
| GEV | $1,152.04 | 60.7 | +3.5% | +23.4% | +26.6% | -3.7% | strong-up GC | +53.6% | 🔒 Hold |
| TLN | $377.79 | 48.2 | +3.6% | +3.6% | +14.5% | -16.3% | strong-up GC | +2.9% | 🔒 Hold (cleanest vs VWAP) |
| BE | $295.05 | 52.4 | +8.9% | +16.4% | +117.1% | -16.0% | strong-up GC | +111.8% | ⚠️ Caution (V-shaped reversal) |
Tier Analysis
Oversold / Distressed (RSI < 44)
- CEG ($245.87, RSI 40) — Still
strong-down DC, -20.8% vs VWAP, -40.4% from ATH. No reversal signal; the nuclear-to-datacenter re-rate remains broken for this name specifically (GEV/TLN are absorbing the AI-power thesis instead). - ARM ($322.24, RSI 46) — Flat 7D after last scan's -17% gap-fill; still 10.5% below SMA20 and +62.8% vs VWAP. The post-earnings flush has stabilized but not reversed.
- ON ($94.69, RSI 42) — Flush continues: -21.7% 30D, -14.5% below SMA20. EV/auto semi demand still soft.
- NVDA ($195.55, RSI 42) — Unchanged story from the last scan: weak-down regime, GC intact, +4.3% vs VWAP (essentially at VWAP), just above SMA200. Still the cleanest pullback entry in the whole ecosystem — two scans running with the same setup.
- AMKR ($69.88, RSI 42) — The window's biggest mover to the downside: -10.6% 7D, -12.5% below SMA20. OSAT/packaging demand cooling faster than the rest of the group.
Neutral / Distribution (RSI 44–53)
- AVGO ($373.90, RSI 45) — Still testing the SMA200 zone (price $373.90 vs SMA200 $360.28, only +3.8% above). Leader-to-weak transition from the last scan hasn't resolved either way yet.
- QCOM ($186.48, RSI 44) — -14.4% 30D; distribution continues, now the worst 30D print in the core semis list.
- MRVL ($249.27, RSI 48) — -13.7% 30D but still +128% 3M and +68% vs VWAP; custom-ASIC name cooling off a huge run, not breaking down.
- LSCC, TLN, INTC all sit in this middle band — flat-to-mixed, no strong signal either way.
- BE ($295.05, RSI 52) — The standout: +8.9% in a single session, +16.4% 10D, and now +111.8% vs VWAP (was extreme before, now more extreme). Fuel-cell/AI-power thesis re-accelerated hard; too extended to chase here.
Momentum (RSI 53–61)
- TSM ($451.79, RSI 55) — Still the best "core holding" in the group: on SMA20, +38.5% vs VWAP, steady +4–6% moves.
thesis: unratedbut the cleanest large-cap chart in the scan. - ASML ($1,825.07, RSI 53) — EUV monopoly holding its uptrend; +49.7% vs VWAP is elevated but not extreme.
- AMAT ($592.79, RSI 53) — This is the scan's biggest regime change: RSI 64→52.8, -5.4% 10D, after being called "the best semi-equipment setup" last scan. Still +84.1% vs VWAP — don't chase the cooldown as a dip-buy yet.
- GEV ($1,152.04, RSI 61) — Cleanest continuation in the power group: +23.4% 30D, +53.6% vs VWAP, strong-up. AI-turbine demand thesis intact.
Parabolic (AMD / INTC — VWAP > 100%)
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 7D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $195.55 | <$191 (SMA200 = $191.12) | 42.3 | +1.0% | Same setup as the prior scan: only name near VWAP with GC intact; two full scans of consolidation without breaking down |
| AVGO | $373.90 | $360–$374 (SMA200 test zone) | 45.2 | -2.0% | Still unresolved — SMA200 hold vs break is still the binary to watch |
| TSM | $451.79 | <$438 (SMA20) | 54.8 | +4.1% | Best core large-cap; +38.5% vs VWAP is reasonable for the group |
| TLN | $377.79 | <$367 (SMA50 retest) | 48.2 | +3.6% | Cleanest VWAP positioning of the power names (+2.9%); nuclear-to-AI thesis |
| GEV | $1,152.04 | <$1,090 (SMA20 retest) | 60.7 | +3.5% | Strong continuation; wait for a pullback rather than chasing +53.6% vs VWAP |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | NVDA | RSI 42, near VWAP, GC intact — the same flag entry for two scans running |
| 🔒 HOLD | TSM, ASML, GEV, TLN, MRVL, AMD, INTC | Thesis intact; too extended (or, for TSM/ASML/GEV/TLN, reasonably priced but not a fresh add) |
| 🔍 WATCH | AVGO, ARM, LSCC, MXL | AVGO's SMA200 test is still the key ecosystem tell; ARM/LSCC/MXL are extended, wait for a real pullback |
| ⚠️ DISTRIBUTION / CAUTION | QCOM, ON, AMKR, BE | QCOM/ON/AMKR are the ecosystem's laggards (worsening, not improving); BE reversed violently and is now +111.8% vs VWAP — don't chase either direction |
| ⚠️ EXTENDED / DON'T ADD | AMD, INTC, AMAT, MRVL, ARM, LSCC | 62–127% above VWAP; parabolic or near-parabolic; hold if owned, trail stop, do not initiate |
| ❌ BROKEN / AVOID | CEG | Strong-down DC persists, -40.4% from ATH, no reversal signal in 10 sessions |
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-06-26)
- BE is the sharpest reversal in the ecosystem. From a -14.2% 30D laggard flagged "caution" last scan to +16.4% over the last 10 sessions and +8.9% in a single day — the AI-power/fuel-cell thesis re-accelerated hard. It's now +111.8% vs VWAP (up from +87.7%), so the move is real but not a fresh entry.
- AMAT cooled from "best setup" to "extended, don't chase." RSI fell from 64.0 to 52.8 on a -5.4% 10-day move, right after last scan called it the cleanest semi-equipment name. The +84.1% VWAP premium hasn't come in much despite the price pullback — this is digestion, not a discount.
- AMKR is now the ecosystem's weakest name. -11.2% over 10 sessions, RSI down to 42.4 — a reversal from being a merely "watch, extended" name.
- NVDA's setup hasn't changed at all. RSI 37.9→42.3, price +1.6%, still weak-down/GC/near-VWAP. Two full scans of the same accumulate thesis with no resolution either way — worth flagging as the ecosystem's most persistent unbroken flag.
- CEG and TLN both continued distributing (-6.9% and -6.5% respectively over 10 sessions), while GEV kept climbing (+10.2%) — the AI-power basket is bifurcating further, not moving as one trade.
- AVGO's SMA200 test is still unresolved. RSI ticked up slightly (40.3→45.2) and price is marginally higher, but it remains within 4% of the SMA200 line flagged as the key tell last scan.
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| BE +8.9% single-day move vs a -14.2% 30D print two weeks ago | AI-power names can reverse violently in either direction — this basket needs daily monitoring, not scan-cadence monitoring |
| AMAT's RSI fell 11 points while its VWAP premium barely moved | "Cooling RSI" and "cooling froth" are not the same signal — check both before calling a name buyable |
| NVDA unchanged for two consecutive scans | The market is genuinely undecided on NVDA at this level — not bullish or bearish, just stuck between SMA200 support and SMA20 resistance |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Calling AMAT "the best semi-equipment setup" without a stop discipline | It gave back the RSI edge in 10 sessions — extended-but-not-overbought names still need risk management |
| Treating BE's -14.2% 30D as a stable "caution, pulled back" read | It reversed +16.4% in the very next window — power/AI-adjacent names in this scan are higher-beta than the semis core and deserve wider stops, not tighter ones |
Open Questions
- Does BE's reversal hold, or does it round-trip back toward the prior lows given how far above VWAP (+111.8%) it now sits?
- AVGO SMA200 test: three scans running without resolution — does the next print finally force a break either way?
- AMKR's acceleration to the downside: is this OSAT-specific (packaging demand softening) or a leading indicator for the rest of the semi-equipment chain?
Related
10 events DateTypeEvent
Jul 11 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jul 17 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jun 26 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jul 25 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jul 28 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jun 16 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jul 31 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jul 11 ScanMonster Scan Aug 8 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Aug 14 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan No direct external sources are attached to this read.