NVDA Ecosystem Scan
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NVDA Ecosystem Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 46 rows · screens, not recommendations
AI semiconductor supercycle regime change since May: ARM +211% 3M, MRVL +207% 3M, INTC +166% 3M, AMAT at RSI 70 after +62% 3M — NVDA itself pulling back -6.6% 30D while ecosystem rips; AVGO pulling back hard (-10.5% 30D, RSI 41) = new entry window.
Sources: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json (unique tickers merged)
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 Supercycle confirmed but internally bifurcated — ARM/MRVL/INTC/AMAT at extreme extension while NVDA and AVGO are pulling back; energy names (CEG collapse regime, ENPH -16.5% vs SMA20) diverging from semis |
| Leaders | ARM (+211% 3M, RSI 64), MRVL (+207% 3M, RSI 59), INTC (+166% 3M, RSI 55), AMAT (+61% 3M, RSI 70), AMD (+158% 3M, RSI 57) |
| Laggards | CEG ($268, RSI 48, -12.8% 3M, collapse regime), PLTR ($133, RSI 45, -35.8% from ATH, deathcross), EOSE ($6.81, RSI 46, -65.7% from ATH) |
| Key insight | AVGO pulled back -10.5% 30D to RSI 41 while custom ASIC hyperscaler thesis still intact — this is the first meaningful dip in a name that was +52% 1Y; watch for re-entry signal |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | $133.25 | 45.3 ↓ | -3.9% | +0.50% | -1.40% | -14.08% | -35.79% | 🔍 Watch |
| EOSE | $6.81 | 46.2 ↓ | -9.9% | -3.78% | -8.34% | +20.74% | -65.71% | ❌ Don't Buy |
| NVDA | $207.41 | 47.4 | -2.7% | +2.65% | -6.60% | +14.14% | -12.32% | 📈 Accumulate |
| P | $73.26 | 47.3 | -5.2% | +3.63% | -4.94% | +15.48% | -27.17% | 🔍 Watch |
| AMZN | $246.00 | 43.1 | -3.7% | -0.49% | -7.12% | +14.31% | -11.69% | 📈 Accumulate |
| AVGO | $376.71 | 41.0 ↓ | -9.2% | +0.20% | -10.46% | +17.49% | -23.90% | 📈 Accumulate |
| NEE | $86.23 | 45.4 | +0.2% | +2.44% | -2.44% | -6.13% | -12.68% | 🔍 Watch |
| CEG | $268.00 | 48.1 | -0.5% | +4.47% | +2.29% | -12.76% | -35.06% | 🔍 Watch |
| ENPH | $50.26 | 45.0 | -16.5% | -4.41% | +1.15% | +12.44% | -31.84% | 🔍 Watch |
| GEV | $982.35 | 50.7 | +0.8% | +6.82% | -2.95% | +16.39% | -16.89% | 🔍 Watch |
| FSLR | $264.36 | 50.9 | -4.0% | +2.31% | +13.15% | +31.90% | -17.63% | 🔒 Hold |
| TAC | $13.51 | 54.1 | +0.5% | +8.39% | +8.43% | +7.65% | -24.44% | 🔍 Watch |
| TSM | $425.83 | 53.4 | +1.1% | +2.37% | +7.80% | +23.37% | -5.40% | 🔒 Hold |
| TLN | $406.51 | 62.5 | +10.3% | +6.37% | +25.38% | +24.26% | -9.92% | 🔒 Hold |
| ON | $118.25 | 52.7 | -1.3% | +4.62% | +8.06% | +93.92% | -12.36% | 🔒 Hold |
| INTC | $117.05 | 54.8 | +1.7% | +16.80% | +8.21% | +165.66% | -11.83% | 🔒 Hold |
| LSCC | $143.48 | 54.5 | 0.0% | +6.16% | +16.51% | +55.69% | -7.92% | 🔒 Hold |
| TXN | $305.71 | 55.8 | +0.9% | +7.93% | +1.70% | +58.01% | -7.78% | 🔒 Hold |
| QCOM | $214.07 | 51.3 | -4.0% | +6.82% | +5.51% | +63.28% | -17.64% | 🔒 Hold |
| ASML | $1,803.89 | 59.1 | +6.5% | +4.64% | +22.51% | +30.14% | -5.74% | 🔒 Hold |
| AMD | $507.29 | 57.0 | +3.0% | +12.37% | +20.50% | +158.41% | -9.15% | 🔒 Hold |
| MRVL | $278.67 | 59.3 | +13.4% | +14.53% | +64.96% | +207.11% | -14.04% | 🔒 Hold |
| MXL | $84.39 | 52.0 | -5.3% | +18.41% | -3.51% | +402.02% | -20.60% | 🔍 Watch |
| AMKR | $86.55 | 67.4 | +19.2% | +15.74% | +31.20% | +86.97% | -10.46% | ⚠️ Approaching Overbought |
| BE | $280.88 | 53.9 | +1.1% | +1.75% | +8.57% | +75.50% | -12.99% | 🔒 Hold |
| ARM | $396.34 | 63.9 | +15.4% | +23.67% | +84.24% | +211.32% | -7.53% | ⚠️ Avoid — Extended |
| AMAT | $568.23 | 70.3 ↑ | +17.6% | +13.95% | +37.57% | +61.42% | -5.44% | ⚠️ Overbought |
Tier Analysis
Pullback / Entry Window (RSI < 50)
- AVGO ($376.71, RSI 41) — Broadcom: custom ASIC for hyperscalers (Amazon/Google/Meta/Apple) + VMware integration. -10.5% 30D, -9.2% vs SMA20, -24% from ATH. Golden cross intact. First real dip in a +52% 1Y compounder. Best new-entry name in the scan.
- NVDA ($207.41, RSI 47) — The central AI GPU franchise. -6.6% 30D, -12% from ATH. Weak-down near-term but golden cross holds. +14% 3M, +44% 1Y. Pullback in the best-positioned name = accumulate window.
- AMZN ($246.00, RSI 43) — Hyperscaler capex story, -7.1% 30D. AI infra spend accelerating. -11.7% from ATH with golden cross.
- NEE ($86.23, RSI 45) — NextEra: AI power demand, -6.1% 3M. Golden cross still active. Near-term softness in power names; accumulate if RSI falls further.
- PLTR ($133.25, RSI 45) — AI/data platform, -35.8% from ATH, deathcross, collapse regime. Pass; broken relative to AI infrastructure peers.
Neutral / Confirming (RSI 50–60)
- TSM ($425.83, RSI 53) — Only global leading-edge fab; +23% 3M, near ATH (-5.4%). Golden cross. Foundry monopoly = hold.
- ASML ($1,803.89, RSI 59) — EUV lithography monopoly; +22.5% 30D, +30% 3M. Strong-up, golden cross.
- AMD ($507.29, RSI 57) — MI300X AI GPU gaining share; +158% 3M. Near ATH (-9%). Strong-up with golden cross.
- MRVL ($278.67, RSI 59) — Custom ASIC: +207% 3M, +65% 30D. +14% above SMA20. Near ATH but thesis explosive.
- INTC ($117.05, RSI 55) — Intel comeback: +166% 3M, +17% 7D this week. Foundry Services gaining; +115% vs SMA200.
- BE ($280.88, RSI 54) — Bloom Energy: solid-oxide fuel cells for AI data centers; +75.5% 3M.
Momentum / Overbought (RSI 60–70+)
- ARM ($396.34, RSI 64) — IP architecture in every AI chip; +211% 3M, +84% 30D. +15.4% above SMA20. Top-3 gain in scan this week (+23.7% 7D). Still has room vs ATH (-7.5%) but extremely extended.
- TLN ($406.51, RSI 63) — Talen Energy: power gen with Microsoft nuclear deal; +25.4% 30D.
- AMKR ($86.55, RSI 67) — Advanced packaging and assembly; +87% 3M, +31% 30D. Approaching overbought.
- AMAT ($568.23, RSI 70) — Applied Materials: etch/deposition tools; +61.4% 3M, +37.6% 30D. At overbought threshold — don't chase.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | $376.71 | <$390 | 41.0 | -10.46% | Custom ASIC hyperscaler thesis intact; first meaningful dip in 2026; golden cross; accumulate |
| NVDA | $207.41 | <$215 | 47.4 | -6.60% | Central AI GPU franchise; lagging ecosystem; golden cross; best risk/reward in the scan |
| AMZN | $246.00 | <$250 | 43.1 | -7.12% | Hyperscaler AI capex spend; -11.7% from ATH; golden cross intact |
| NEE | $86.23 | <$88 | 45.4 | -2.44% | AI power demand; golden cross; accumulate if RSI falls below 40 |
| TSM | $425.83 | <$430 | 53.4 | +7.80% | Leading-edge fab monopoly; near ATH; core hold; add on any 5% dip |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | AVGO, NVDA, AMZN | RSI 41-47; first real dips in core AI infrastructure plays; golden cross intact |
| 🔒 HOLD | TSM, ASML, AMD, MRVL, INTC, ON, LSCC, TXN, QCOM, BE, FSLR, TLN | Trends intact; thesis confirmed; don't trade out |
| 🔍 WATCH | CEG, GEV, NEE, ENPH, P, TAC, PLTR, MXL | Pullbacks in power/infrastructure; real thesis but mixed signals |
| ⚠️ AVOID / EXTENDED | ARM, AMKR | RSI 64-67 with +87-211% 3M; extended; wait for pullback before adding |
| ⚠️ OVERBOUGHT | AMAT | RSI 70.3, +37.6% 30D; mean-reversion risk elevated; don't chase |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | EOSE, PLTR | EOSE -66% from ATH + deathcross; PLTR collapse regime, -35.8% from ATH |
What Changed (vs May 29 scan)
- Regime shift since May tape: ARM was RSI 77.5 in May — now RSI 64 after consolidation. MRVL was RSI 69.5 — now 59. The May overbought names have partially worked off extended readings while continuing to gain (MRVL +207% 3M vs +154% in May).
- AVGO NEW ENTRY — was RSI 66 in May at $446; now $376.71 at RSI 41. -10.5% 30D. Biggest single-name opportunity change in this scan.
- AMAT now overbought — RSI 70.3 with +61% 3M; etch/deposition tool cycle confirming AI capex.
- INTC +16.8% 7D this week — Intel foundry story accelerating; +166% 3M. Comeback trade becoming consensus.
- NVDA pullback — -6.6% 30D while ecosystem rips; central franchise cheapest in its own supply chain again.
- CEG collapse regime — nuclear baseload power name at -35% from ATH, deathcross. Rate sensitivity and long-term PPA concerns weighing.
- ENPH cooling — Was RSI 77.4 in May; now RSI 45 after pulling back to $50. Solar tariff relief already priced.
- FSLR normalizing — Was RSI 83.4 in May extreme overbought; now RSI 50.9. The mean-reversion played out.
- ARM +23.7% this week — Biggest single-week move in the scan. ARM IP royalty model re-rated as every AI chip confirms the architecture.
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| AVGO RSI 41 after +52% 1Y | Hyperscaler ASIC moat intact; this dip is unusual for a name near-max conviction |
| ENPH RSI 45 from RSI 77 in May | Tariff-relief trade fully exhausted; next move driven by installation cycle, not policy |
| ARM +23.7% 7D vs NVDA +2.7% 7D | ARM IP layer monetizing faster than NVDA hardware amid competition fears |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Labeled FSLR "extreme overbought do not chase" in May at RSI 83 | RSI 83 held before mean-reverting; right call but extreme RSI can persist for weeks |
Open Questions
- Is AVGO's dip driven by VMware integration concerns or simply NVDA-halo rotation that is now reversing?
- Will INTC's +166% 3M run sustain into Intel Foundry Services announcements, or is this getting ahead of execution?
- CEG collapse regime — is nuclear-AI power thesis structurally broken, or is this a sentiment overshoot?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.