raw scansnapshot — prices as of scan date, not live49 rows · screens, not recommendations
NVDA's supply chain (semis/equipment) is parabolic while NVDA itself (RSI 50, -5.7% 30D) and the platform layer (AMZN/PLTR) lag — the money is in the picks-and-shovels: AMAT (RSI 76, parabolic), ARM (+96.9% 30D), MRVL (+62.9% 30D), and the power/electrification leg (BE near ATH, GEV/TLN breaking out). The bottleneck (equipment + power) is re-rating harder than the chip designer at the center.
Sources: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json. Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-18; some names 06-16/06-17 (stale) flagged inline.
Quick Snapshot
Signal
Reading
Overall
🟠 Ecosystem rip led by equipment + custom-silicon + power, NOT NVDA itself — AMAT parabolic (RSI 76), ARM/MRVL/INTC all up 20-97% 30D; NVDA flat (RSI 50, -5.7% 30D). Supply/equipment + power legs are where the re-rate is
AMAT at RSI 76 in parabolic regime + ARM/AMKR at RSI 69-71 — the equipment/IP layer is overbought while NVDA consolidates flat. Power leg (BE/GEV/TLN) confirms the AI-electricity thesis with three golden-crossed/breakout names
AMAT ($617.11, RSI 76) — Applied Materials: parabolic regime, +22.9% vs SMA20, +51.9% 30D, +94.6% vs SMA200. The single most-extended name in the ecosystem. Don't chase; wait for pullback to SMA20.
AMKR ($90.46, RSI 71) — Amkor: advanced packaging (CoWoS proxy), +38.2% 30D, +88.1% 3M, +21% vs SMA20. Overbought but thesis-on (packaging is the real bottleneck).
ARM ($439.46, RSI 69) — Arm Holdings: +96.9% 30D, +238.5% 3M, near ATH (-2.9%). thesis: intact-but-priced — the IP layer is fully valued; momentum extreme.
ASML ($1,929.68, RSI 66) — ASML: EUV monopoly, +32.2% 30D, near ATH (-0.7%), +52.6% vs SMA200. The deepest moat in the chain; accumulate on dips, don't chase here.
TLN ($436.29, RSI 69) — Talen Energy: breakout regime, +21% 30D, nuclear-to-datacenter PPA thesis. Power leg leader.
GEV ($1,109.73, RSI 66) — GE Vernova: +14.3% 7D, golden cross, grid/turbine electrification. Hold.
BE ($328.91, RSI 65) — Bloom Energy: near ATH (-0.18%), +25.9% 30D, +97.3% 3M, +1412% 1Y. Fuel-cell-for-datacenter power thesis, thesis: intact. Hold.
Momentum / Uptrend (RSI 55–65)
MRVL ($310.58, RSI 65) — Marvell: custom-ASIC/optics, +62.9% 30D, +246.9% 3M, +174.7% vs SMA200. Custom-silicon demand surge; near ATH (-10.7%). Watch for entry on pullback.
INTC ($133.99, RSI 64) — Intel: +190.2% 3M, near ATH (-1.1%), +535.6% 1Y — foundry/turnaround re-rate, the biggest 1Y mover in the cohort. Momentum confirmed.
AMD ($537.37, RSI 61) — AMD: MI-series accelerators, +29.8% 30D, +161.8% 3M, +105.8% vs SMA200, near ATH (-3.8%). NVDA's #2; thesis-on. Hold.
TXN / ON / LSCC — analog/power-semi cohort, all golden-crossed and strong-up; TXN +58% 3M, ON +105% 3M.
Lagging / Consolidating (RSI 45–55)
NVDA ($210.69, RSI 50) — Nvidia: pullback regime, -5.7% 30D, +16.8% 3M, golden cross, +10.9% vs SMA200, -10.9% from ATH. The center consolidates flat while the chain rips. thesis: intact. Hold core.
TSM ($462.12, RSI 53) — TSMC: foundry, +18% 30D, near ATH (-0.7%). Quiet steady uptrend underneath the whole chain. Hold.
AVGO ($411.35, RSI 51) — Broadcom: custom-silicon + networking, +28.9% 3M but -16.9% from ATH, weak-down near-term. thesis: intact. Hold.
AMZN ($244.39, RSI 44) — Amazon: AWS demand proxy, pullback regime, -5.8% 30D, +17.1% 3M, golden cross, -12.3% from ATH. Demand-side lagging the silicon. Accumulate on weakness.
Collapsing (RSI < 45 or collapse regime)
PLTR ($128.47, RSI 43) — Palantir: collapse regime, -38.1% from ATH, death-cross, -19.7% vs SMA200. Platform-layer de-rating hard despite thesis: intact. No entry until trend stabilizes.
CEG ($274.06, RSI 51) — Constellation: collapse regime, -13.3% 3M, -33.6% from ATH, death-cross. Nuclear name de-rating while TLN/BE rip — power leg is bifurcating.
EOSE ($7.65, RSI 54) — Eos Energy: -61.5% from ATH, downtrend; +21.2% 7D bounce inside a deep drawdown. Spec.
Strong momentum or participating but need pullback / trend confirmation
⚠️ AVOID / OVERBOUGHT
AMAT, AMKR, ARM
RSI 69-76, parabolic/extended — don't chase the equipment/IP top
❌ DON'T BUY
PLTR, CEG
Collapse regimes, death-cross, -34 to -38% from ATH; platform + nuclear de-rating
What Changed
Equipment layer parabolic — AMAT (RSI 76, +51.9% 30D, parabolic regime) is now the most-extended name in the whole ecosystem. AMKR (advanced packaging, +88% 3M) right behind. The chip-equipment leg is leading, not the chips.
ARM +96.9% 30D — the IP layer is the single biggest 30D mover (RSI 69, near ATH); thesis tagged intact-but-priced. The royalty model is fully valued.
NVDA flat while chain rips — NVDA -5.7% 30D, RSI 50, consolidating in pullback regime at the exact center while supply (AMAT/ARM/MRVL) and power (BE/GEV/TLN) re-rate around it. Classic picks-and-shovels skew.
Power leg confirms AI-electricity thesis — BE (near ATH, +97% 3M), GEV (golden cross), TLN (breakout) all leading; the AI-power-bottleneck perspective is firing on three names.
PLTR + CEG collapse — platform layer (PLTR -38% from ATH) and one nuclear name (CEG -34% from ATH) both in collapse regime; the de-rate is concentrated in the formerly-hot demand/nuclear momentum names while equipment/power lead.
INTC turnaround +190% 3M — Intel the biggest 3M/1Y mover in the silicon cohort (RSI 64, near ATH) — foundry/turnaround narrative re-rating hard.
Key Discoveries
Discovery
Implication
AMAT/ARM/AMKR at RSI 69-76 while NVDA at RSI 50
The re-rate is in the supply chain + IP, not the chip designer — picks-and-shovels skew is extreme
BE/GEV/TLN all leading (golden cross / breakout)
AI-power-bottleneck thesis firing on three names; power leg confirmed
PLTR + CEG both in collapse while equipment parabolic
Bifurcation: formerly-hot demand/nuclear momentum names de-rating, equipment/power leading
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
Mistake
Lesson
Chasing AMAT at RSI 76 because "the thesis is right"
Parabolic regime + 22.9% above SMA20 = wait for the revert; right thesis, wrong entry
Treating CEG weakness as the whole power leg breaking
TLN/BE/GEV all lead — CEG is an idiosyncratic nuclear de-rate, not the sector
Open Questions
Does NVDA's flat consolidation resolve up (chain confirms demand) or down (chain was front-running)?
AMAT parabolic at RSI 76 — top of the equipment cycle, or mid-melt-up with more to go?
Why is CEG collapsing (-34% from ATH) while TLN breaks out — PPA/contract-specific, or a tell on the nuclear-PPA trade?