NVDA Ecosystem (Composite)
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NVDA Ecosystem (Composite)
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 48 rows · screens, not recommendations
The NVDA supply chain has split into two tapes: the GPU/networking front-end is in a real drawdown (NVDA RSI 39, AVGO RSI 44, both below SMA20/50) while the back-end — memory + WFE — is melting up (MU/SNDK/STX/WDC all RSI 62-65 +20-43% 30D; AMAT RSI 71 +43% 30D). The compute-power leg is mixed (GEV strong-up, CEG collapsing). This is the classic late-stage rotation: the picks-and-shovels (memory, equipment) are pricing the capex super-cycle while the marquee GPU names cool off into oversold. Entry-frame: NVDA is OVERSOLD-QUALITY (RSI 39, still +2.3% above SMA200, golden cross) — the cleanest mega-cap dip in the chain; the memory winners are CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT but extended.
Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json + memory.json. Latest bar 2026-06-25.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Two-tape supply chain — GPU/networking front-end in drawdown (NVDA/AVGO/MRVL/ARM below SMA20), memory + WFE melting up (MU/SNDK/STX/WDC/AMAT). Rotation into the picks-and-shovels |
| Leaders | AMAT (RSI 71, +43.5% 30D, near ATH), SNDK (RSI 65, +42.8% 30D, +247% vs SMA200), STX (RSI 63, +21.3% 30D), MU (RSI 63, +30.3% 30D, +177% vs SMA200), WDC (RSI 62, +28.8% 30D), AMD (RSI 58, +158.7% 3M) |
| Laggards | NVDA (RSI 39, -9.3% 30D, -17.7% from ATH), AVGO (RSI 44, -9.7% 30D, -23.1% from ATH), CEG (RSI 50, collapse, -34.4% from ATH), QCOM (RSI 48, -17.4% 30D), ARM (RSI 52, -18.7% 7D) |
| Key insight | Memory super-cycle leg (MU/SNDK/STX/WDC + DRAM ETF +27.6% 30D) is the dominant signal — all 4 storage names +20-43% 30D with massive SMA200 spreads; the GPU front-end (NVDA/AVGO) is the laggard, now oversold |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $194.70 | 39.1 ↓ | -6.7% | -4.80% | -9.28% | +13.83% | -17.71% | ✅ OVERSOLD-QUALITY (GC, +2.3% vs SMA200) |
| AVGO | $380.49 | 43.9 ↓ | -6.4% | -6.30% | -9.70% | +23.16% | -23.13% | 🔍 Watch (pullback, GC, +5.7% vs SMA200) |
| FSLR† | $248.54 | 45.1 ↓ | -10.0% | -1.13% | -7.93% | +33.75% | -22.56% | 🔍 Watch (energy, pullback) |
| ENPH† | $47.81 | 43.4 ↓ | -15.8% | -5.10% | -28.54% | +18.99% | -35.17% | 🔍 Watch (energy, pullback) |
| QCOM | $204.90 | 47.8 | -6.9% | -11.26% | -17.35% | +57.54% | -21.17% | 🔍 Watch (pullback off run) |
| CEG | $270.64 | 49.5 | +2.1% | -2.16% | -10.26% | -8.17% | -34.42% | ❌ Don't Buy (collapse, DC) |
| ARM | $356.70 | 52.2 | -5.0% | -18.71% | +11.05% | +130.43% | -21.20% | 🔍 Watch (sharp pullback, GC) |
| NEE† | $87.74 | 52.6 | +2.4% | +0.97% | +0.84% | -3.05% | -11.15% | 🔒 Hold (energy, GC) |
| TSM | $434.99 | 53.0 | +0.4% | -1.98% | +5.74% | +33.70% | -8.77% | 🔒 Hold (uptrend, GC) |
| LSCC | $146.51 | 54.0 | +0.7% | -2.78% | -2.55% | +54.35% | -6.69% | 🔒 Hold (uptrend, GC) |
| EWY‡ | $204.65 | 54.2 | +1.4% | -9.45% | +1.99% | +70.56% | -7.35% | 🔒 Hold (Korea-mem proxy) |
| BE† | $304.66 | 54.8 | +6.6% | +5.64% | +0.75% | +128.18% | -13.27% | 🔒 Hold (energy, GC, +91% vs SMA200) |
| TXN | $311.81 | 54.7 | +2.6% | -3.92% | -4.03% | +62.04% | -6.65% | 🔒 Hold (uptrend, GC) |
| MRVL | $281.40 | 56.5 | +2.3% | -12.60% | +35.12% | +188.23% | -14.70% | 🔍 Watch (pullback off vertical) |
| ASML | $1,840.33 | 57.0 | +3.7% | -8.88% | +12.76% | +38.73% | -6.06% | 🔒 Hold (uptrend, +43% vs SMA200) |
| AMD | $527.16 | 57.6 | +3.0% | -2.18% | +4.62% | +158.70% | -6.36% | 🔒 Hold (uptrend, +96% vs SMA200) |
| MXL | $95.60 | 58.0 | +10.4% | -0.93% | -0.54% | +457.11% | -10.05% | 🔍 Watch (uptrend, parabolic 3M) |
| GEV† | $1,090.13 | 59.0 | +10.5% | -4.68% | +1.89% | +24.92% | -7.77% | 🔒 Hold (energy, GC, +39.5% vs SMA200) |
| AMKR | $86.45 | 59.7 | +10.3% | -8.51% | +17.81% | +91.73% | -10.58% | 🔍 Watch (uptrend, +76.6% vs SMA200) |
| TLN† | $416.80 | 59.8 | +7.8% | -7.04% | +7.15% | +28.99% | -7.64% | 🔒 Hold (energy, uptrend) |
| INTC | $132.19 | 60.2 | +11.1% | +2.53% | +7.02% | +199.75% | -6.55% | 🔍 Watch (uptrend, +129% vs SMA200) |
| MU | $1,166.88 | 62.7 | +14.1% | -6.01% | +30.25% | +228.41% | -6.97% | 🔒 Hold/Trim-discipline (+177% vs SMA200) |
| WDC | $675.39 | 62.3 | +12.6% | -17.43% | +28.77% | +147.14% | -15.56% | 🔍 Watch (uptrend, +143% vs SMA200) |
| STX | $1,025.36 | 62.8 | +8.0% | -9.70% | +21.32% | +170.89% | -10.45% | 🔍 Watch (uptrend, +134% vs SMA200) |
| SNDK | $2,269.74 | 65.1 | +21.3% | -11.28% | +42.79% | +276.30% | -3.60% | 🔒 Hold (uptrend, +247% vs SMA200, near ATH) |
| AMAT | $652.71 | 71.1 | +21.5% | -6.79% | +43.49% | +93.04% | -0.50% | ⚠️ EXTENDED/TRIM (RSI 71, +100% vs SMA200, ATH) |
†energy.json (compute-power leg). ‡EWY = Korea ETF, memory.json (Samsung/SK Hynix proxy). DRAM/HY9H.F/SIMO/005930.KS also in memory.json (memory-supercycle proxies), omitted for US-tradable focus.
Tier Analysis
Oversold / Drawdown (GPU + networking front-end)
- NVDA ($194.70, RSI 39) — golden cross intact, still +2.3% above SMA200 (the secular floor), but -6.7% below SMA20 and -9.3% 30D into a real pullback. OVERSOLD-QUALITY — this is the textbook dip-into-strength setup in the chain: durable uptrend, RSI washing out, holding the 200.
thesis: intact. The cleanest mega-cap entry-watch in the batch. - AVGO ($380.49, RSI 44) — pullback regime, golden cross, +5.7% vs SMA200, but -23.1% from ATH and -9.7% 30D. Custom-silicon thesis
intact; deeper drawdown than NVDA, not yet oversold (RSI 44). Watch for RSI < 40. - ARM ($356.70, RSI 52) — golden cross, +106.7% vs SMA200, but -18.7% in 7 days — a violent single-week flush off a +130% 3M run.
intact-but-priced. Digesting; watch the flag. - QCOM ($204.90, RSI 48) — pullback, -17.4% 30D off a +57.5% 3M run. Below SMA20 but golden cross + 23% vs SMA200 intact. Cooling, not breaking.
Memory + Storage Super-cycle (CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT, the dominant leg)
- MU ($1,166.88, RSI 63) — USER FOCUS. Strong-up, golden cross, +30.3% 30D, +228.4% 3M, +177.5% vs SMA200, -7% from ATH.
intact-but-priced. The memory super-cycle leader; DRAM/HBM tightness is the thesis. CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT but mature — RSI 63 isn't extreme, but +177% above SMA200 = a lot priced in; the -6% 7D dip is the kind of flag a trend-holder adds into, NOT a fresh chase. Hold core; add only on a deeper pullback toward SMA20 (~$1,022). - SNDK ($2,269.74, RSI 65) — USER FOCUS. Strong-up, golden cross, +42.8% 30D, +276.3% 3M, +247% vs SMA200, near ATH (-3.6%), +4,712% 1Y. The single most-stretched-vs-SMA200 name in the chain and the purest NAND/flash-cycle play.
unrated. CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT, extended — the -11.3% 7D pullback is the first real breather; for a trend-holder this is a hold-through-the-gap name, not an initiate-here name. Wait for the flag to set near SMA20 (~$1,871) before adding. - STX ($1,025.36, RSI 63) — strong-up, golden cross, +21.3% 30D, +170.9% 3M, +134% vs SMA200. HDD/nearline-storage cycle. CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT; -9.7% 7D flag forming.
- WDC ($675.39, RSI 62) — strong-up, golden cross, +28.8% 30D, +147.1% 3M, +143% vs SMA200. Storage sibling of STX; -17.4% 7D = the sharpest pullback of the storage four. CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT digesting.
WFE / Equipment + Foundry (the capex picks-and-shovels)
- AMAT ($652.71, RSI 71) — strong-up, golden cross, +43.5% 30D, +100% vs SMA200, at ATH (-0.5%). EXTENDED/TRIM — RSI 71 + at ATH + doubled vs SMA200; great trend, worst entry in the WFE group.
- ASML ($1,840.33, RSI 57) — uptrend, golden cross, +12.8% 30D, +43% vs SMA200. EUV monopoly; cleaner RSI than AMAT. Hold.
- TSM ($434.99, RSI 53) — uptrend, golden cross, +33.7% 3M, +28.8% vs SMA200, RSI 53 (digesting at SMA20). The foundry anchor; cleanest mid-RSI entry of the leaders. Hold/accumulate on dips.
- AMD ($527.16, RSI 58) — uptrend, golden cross, +158.7% 3M, +96% vs SMA200. The GPU name that DIDN'T pull back like NVDA; strong-up holding. Hold.
- INTC ($132.19, RSI 60) — strong-up, +199.8% 3M, +129% vs SMA200 — a turnaround/foundry re-rate; speculative but momentum is real. Watch.
Compute-Power Leg (energy.json — mixed)
- GEV ($1,090.13, RSI 59) — GE Vernova: strong-up, golden cross, +39.5% vs SMA200, -7.8% from ATH. The grid/turbine bottleneck winner. Hold.
- TLN ($416.80, RSI 60) / BE ($304.66, RSI 55) — Talen + Bloom: both uptrend/golden-cross, power-for-AI thesis intact. Hold.
- CEG ($270.64, RSI 50) — Constellation: collapse regime, death-cross, -34.4% from ATH, -14.8% vs SMA200, -10.3% 30D. The broken name in the power leg — the nuclear-for-AI bid has de-rated hard. BROKEN/AVOID despite RSI 50 (not washed enough to be oversold-quality, and below SMA200).
- NEE ($87.74, RSI 53) — NextEra: weak-down but golden cross + above SMA200; utility anchor, neutral.
- ENPH ($47.81, RSI 43) / FSLR ($248.54, RSI 45) — solar; pullbacks (ENPH -28.5% 30D), not part of the core compute chain. Watch only.
MU + SNDK Entry Read (USER FOCUS — memory-supercycle core)
| Name | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | From ATH | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | $1,166.88 | 62.7 | +177.5% | -7.0% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT, mature. Thesis (DRAM/HBM tightness) intact, `intact-but-priced`. Trend-hold: KEEP CORE. The -6% 7D dip is a hold-through-gap, not a chase. Fresh adds only on a deeper flag toward SMA20 (~$1,022) — buying +14% above SMA20 + RSI 63 is paying up. No trim signal yet (RSI not extreme), but +177% vs SMA200 means the easy money is behind. |
| SNDK | $2,269.74 | 65.1 | +247% | -3.6% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT, extended. Purest NAND-cycle play, near ATH, most-stretched-vs-SMA200 name in the chain. Trend-hold: HOLD THROUGH the -11.3% 7D breather — first real pullback of the run. Do NOT initiate fresh here (+21% above SMA20 = textbook over-extended entry). Watch for the flag to base near SMA20 (~$1,871); that's the add. |
Net: Both are core memory-supercycle holds, thesis intact, NOT entries today. The setup the user buys (bottom→pop→flag→breakout) is already mid-flight on both — the move to wait for is the flag (the current 7-11% pullback) resolving back up, not a fresh breakout. If forced to pick a fresh-entry between them, MU's RSI 63 / -6% 7D is the more reasonable add-zone than SNDK's near-ATH RSI 65; but neither is a clean entry at today's print.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $194.70 | $185-195 | 39.1 | -9.3% | OVERSOLD-QUALITY; GC; holding SMA200 (+2.3%); RSI washing — the cleanest mega-cap dip-into-strength |
| TSM | $434.99 | <$425 | 53.0 | +5.7% | Foundry anchor; GC; +28.8% vs SMA200; mid-RSI digestion = add on SMA20 retest |
| AVGO | $380.49 | <$360 | 43.9 | -9.7% | Custom-silicon; GC; -23% from ATH; watch for RSI < 40 capitulation |
| MU | $1,166.88 | <$1,022 | 62.7 | +30.3% | USER FOCUS; supercycle core; add on flag toward SMA20, don't chase +14% above it |
| SNDK | $2,269.74 | <$1,871 | 65.1 | +42.8% | USER FOCUS; NAND cycle; hold through breather, add only on SMA20 flag |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ OVERSOLD-QUALITY (dip-into-strength) | NVDA | RSI 39, GC, holding SMA200, thesis intact — cleanest mega-cap dip in the chain |
| 🔒 HOLD (core, trend intact) | MU, SNDK, AMD, TSM, ASML, GEV, TLN, BE | Confirmed uptrends / supercycle core; hold through pullbacks, don't sell strength |
| 🔍 WATCH / accumulate on flag | AVGO, ARM, QCOM, MRVL, STX, WDC, AMKR, INTC, MXL | Pulling back off big runs; wait for flag/RSI confirm — most still above SMA200 |
| ⚠️ EXTENDED / TRIM-DISCIPLINE | AMAT, SNDK*, MU* | AMAT RSI 71 at ATH; MU/SNDK +177-247% vs SMA200 = mature, no fresh chase |
| ❌ BROKEN / AVOID | CEG | Collapse regime + death-cross, -34% from ATH, below SMA200 — nuclear-for-AI de-rate not done |
*MU/SNDK held as core (trend intact) but flagged trim-discipline on stretch — no fresh adds at today's print.
What Changed
- Two-tape split — GPU/networking front-end (NVDA -9.3% 30D, AVGO -9.7% 30D, MRVL -12.6% 7D, ARM -18.7% 7D) in drawdown while memory/storage (MU/SNDK/STX/WDC +21-43% 30D) and WFE (AMAT +43.5% 30D) melt up. Classic rotation into the capex picks-and-shovels.
- Memory super-cycle is the dominant signal — all four storage names + the DRAM ETF (+27.6% 30D) ripping; SMA200 spreads of +134% to +247%. SNDK is the most-stretched name in the entire chain.
- NVDA oversold-quality — RSI 39, still +2.3% above SMA200, golden cross — the marquee name washing out into the dip-into-strength zone the user hunts.
- CEG collapse isolated — Constellation -34% from ATH, death-cross, -14.8% vs SMA200; the nuclear-for-AI power leg's broken name vs GEV/TLN/BE still in uptrends.
- AMAT extended — +43.5% 30D, RSI 71, at ATH, +100% vs SMA200 — the WFE leg's chase-warning vs ASML/TSM's cleaner mid-RSI setups.
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Memory/storage (MU/SNDK/STX/WDC) all +20-43% 30D while NVDA/AVGO -9% 30D | The capex super-cycle is being priced through the picks-and-shovels, not the GPU names — back-end rotation |
| NVDA RSI 39 holding +2.3% above SMA200 | OVERSOLD-QUALITY dip-into-strength; the cleanest mega-cap entry-watch in the batch |
| CEG collapse vs GEV/TLN/BE uptrends | The "power-for-AI" trade is bifurcating — nuclear (CEG) broke, turbines/fuel-cells (GEV/BE) held |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Chasing SNDK/MU at +247%/+177% vs SMA200 | Trend-hold = ride the core through pullbacks, don't initiate fresh +21% above SMA20; wait for the flag |
| Reading CEG's RSI 50 as a neutral hold | RSI 50 + collapse regime + below SMA200 = not washed, still broken — not oversold-quality |
| Treating all GPU names as one trade | AMD held (+158% 3M, strong-up) while NVDA/AVGO pulled back — name-level dispersion inside "GPUs" |
Open Questions
- Does NVDA's RSI-39 dip resolve up off SMA200 (dip-into-strength confirmed) or break the 200 into a deeper de-rate?
- Memory super-cycle: how much further can SNDK/MU run +200%+ above SMA200 before a real mean-reversion, and where does a trend-holder's flag-add actually trigger?
- Is the GPU-front-end pullback (NVDA/AVGO/MRVL) a healthy rotation or the leading edge of an AI-capex digestion that drags the whole chain?
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.