NVDA Ecosystem Scan
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NVDA Ecosystem Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 45 rows · screens, not recommendations
The NVDA ecosystem rested hard this week — NVDA -7.3% 7D (RSI 38), AVGO -4.5% 7D (RSI 40, leader→weakening), QCOM -11.2% 7D, ARM -17.1% 7D — but the 3-month performance underneath is parabolic (AMD +158% 3M, MRVL +181% 3M, AMAT +86% 3M), meaning this week's pullback is a flag in a ripping uptrend, not a trend reversal; only AVGO's -13.3% 30D and QCOM's -18.6% 30D look like real distribution.
Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped. Latest bar 2026-06-26. Note: MU not available in current summaries.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Broad rest week after extreme 3M runs — NVDA/AVGO/QCOM/ARM/TSM all down 4-17% 7D; the 3M P&L is still up 15-182% on most names; regime is "flag/pullback in uptrend" not "breakdown" |
| Leaders this week | AMAT (+6.0% 7D, RSI 64, +39.8% 30D); GEV (flat week, RSI 54, uptrend); TLN (-4.1% 7D but still +24.5% 3M) |
| Weakest this week | ARM (-17.1% 7D, RSI 48); QCOM (-11.2% 7D, RSI 43, -18.6% 30D); ON (-9.6% 7D, RSI 37); NVDA (-7.3% 7D, RSI 38); BE (-9.9% 7D, RSI 43) |
| AVGO special flag | AVGO -4.5% 7D, -13.3% 30D, RSI 40.3 — previously the sector's second-strongest name; now clearly distributing. Broke from leader → weak; watch SMA200 ($360) as key support |
| Froth read (VWAP) | AMD +119.4% vs VWAP (PARABOLIC); INTC +133.9% vs VWAP (PARABOLIC — from $17 base); AMAT +104.1% vs VWAP (PARABOLIC); MRVL +85.6% vs VWAP; ARM +71.7% vs VWAP; ASML +50.1% vs VWAP (borderline parabolic) |
| Key insight | NVDA (RSI 38, +3.3% vs VWAP, GC) is the cleanest pullback entry in the group — only name where price is near VWAP with a golden cross; the rest are parabolic (AMD/INTC/AMAT) or distributing (AVGO/QCOM) |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | VWAP% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | $264.02 | 45.3 | +0.1% | -2.1% | -8.5% | -12.3% | -36.0% | strong-down DC | -15.5% | ❌ Broken |
| ON | $90.65 | 37.4 ↓ | -24.0% | -9.6% | -27.4% | +55.4% | -32.8% | weak-down GC | +28.7% | ⚠️ Avoid (flush) |
| NVDA | $192.53 | 37.9 ↓ | -7.3% | -7.3% | -9.3% | +15.1% | -18.6% | weak-down GC | +3.3% | 📈 Accumulate (oversold, near VWAP, GC) |
| AVGO | $365.02 | 40.3 ↓ | -9.5% | -4.5% | -13.3% | +21.6% | -26.3% | weak-down GC | +4.5% | 🔍 Watch (leader→distributing; SMA200 = $360) |
| QCOM | $189.39 | 42.6 | -12.9% | -11.2% | -18.6% | +49.6% | -27.1% | weak-down GC | +9.4% | ⚠️ Avoid (-4.5% vs SMA50, losing support) |
| AMKR | $78.72 | 50.7 | 0.0% | -6.1% | +9.2% | +77.3% | -18.6% | strong-up GC | +57.3% | 🔍 Watch (extended vs VWAP) |
| ARM | $334.27 | 48.4 | -10.8% | -17.1% | +10.4% | +131.9% | -26.2% | strong-up GC | +71.7% | 🔍 Watch (extended; flag after 3M run) |
| TXN | $285.42 | 44.9 | -5.6% | -5.9% | -10.1% | +50.7% | -14.6% | weak-down GC | +34.7% | ⚠️ Caution (distribution; -10% 30D) |
| LSCC | $138.76 | 48.5 | -4.2% | -5.0% | -6.2% | +53.5% | -11.6% | strong-up GC | +61.1% | 🔍 Watch (extended vs VWAP) |
| TSM | $432.35 | 52.1 | -0.3% | -6.8% | +2.5% | +32.6% | -9.3% | strong-up GC | +34.5% | 🔒 Hold (on SMA20, +27.7% vs SMA200) |
| MRVL | $266.77 | 52.7 | -4.1% | -8.2% | +34.3% | +181.3% | -19.1% | strong-up GC | +85.6% | 🔒 Hold (flag; +125.2% vs SMA200; too extended to add) |
| BE | $252.02 | 43.2 | -11.3% | -9.9% | -14.2% | +89.2% | -28.3% | weak-down GC | +87.7% | ⚠️ Caution (pulled back from parabolic run; +87.7% vs VWAP still extreme) |
| GEV | $1,045.17 | 53.7 | +5.7% | -3.5% | +1.3% | +22.6% | -11.6% | strong-up GC | +42.1% | 🔒 Hold (AI turbine play; +33.4% vs SMA200) |
| TLN | $404.09 | 55.4 | +4.2% | -4.1% | +6.4% | +24.5% | -10.5% | strong-up GC | +10.9% | 🔒 Hold (nuclear power; clean +8.4% vs SMA200) |
| ASML | $1,794.62 | 53.8 | +0.5% | -3.9% | +12.3% | +38.1% | -8.4% | strong-up GC | +50.1% | 🔒 Hold (borderline parabolic; EUV monopoly; +39% vs SMA200) |
| MXL | $96.60 | 58.7 | +11.7% | -2.0% | -4.5% | +468.2% | -9.1% | strong-up GC | +103.5% | 🔍 Watch (speculative; +196% vs SMA200; poc at $14) |
| AMD | $521.58 | 56.2 | +1.8% | -2.1% | +5.3% | +158.2% | -7.4% | strong-up GC | +119.4% | ⚠️ PARABOLIC (hold only; +92.8% vs SMA200) |
| INTC | $128.32 | 57.0 | +7.5% | -4.2% | +5.4% | +197.5% | -9.3% | strong-up GC | +133.9% | ⚠️ PARABOLIC (from $17 base; +120.4% vs SMA200; extreme) |
| AMAT | $626.84 | 64.0 | +14.6% | +6.0% | +39.8% | +86.1% | -6.3% | strong-up GC | +104.1% | ⚠️ PARABOLIC (+90.7% vs SMA200; only name with +6% this week) |
Power Plays Summary (CEG / GEV / TLN / BE)
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | VWAP% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | $264.02 | 45.3 | -2.1% | -8.5% | -12.3% | -36.0% | strong-down DC | -15.5% | ❌ Broken (nuclear re-rate reversal) |
| GEV | $1,045.17 | 53.7 | -3.5% | +1.3% | +22.6% | -11.6% | strong-up GC | +42.1% | 🔒 Hold |
| TLN | $404.09 | 55.4 | -4.1% | +6.4% | +24.5% | -10.5% | strong-up GC | +10.9% | 🔒 Hold (cleanest power play vs VWAP) |
| BE | $252.02 | 43.2 | -9.9% | -14.2% | +89.2% | -28.3% | weak-down GC | +87.7% | ⚠️ Caution (parabolic pullback) |
Tier Analysis
Oversold / Pullback Entry (RSI < 43)
- NVDA ($192.53, RSI 38) — Weak-down, GC, -7.3% SMA20, +1.1% vs SMA200 (barely above 200-day), +3.3% vs VWAP (practically at VWAP; poc at $181.38). This is the cleanest pullback-entry in the ecosystem: GC intact, on the SMA200, near VWAP. The -7.3% 7D is the flush you wait for. Entry zone: <$190 (SMA200 = $190.43).
thesis: intact. - ON ($90.65, RSI 37) — Weak-down, GC, -27.4% 30D, -24% below SMA20 (flush). EV/auto semi exposure. Has +28.7% vs VWAP despite the flush — the 3M run (+55%) means it ran far above VWAP before pulling. Wait for SMA20 reclaim before touching.
- AVGO ($365.02, RSI 40) — Weak-down, GC, -13.3% 30D; SMA200 = $360.01 (price is $365 = barely above). AVGO is the key watch: was a leader, now testing SMA200. If it holds $360, it's a hold; if it breaks, next support is unclear. Leader→weakening is a distribution pattern.
thesis: intact. - CEG ($264.02, RSI 45) — Strong-down, DC, -16.9% vs SMA200, -12.3% 3M, -36% from ATH. Nuclear power re-rate reversed; -15.5% vs VWAP (below). Broken thesis for the near term. Avoid.
Neutral / Flag (RSI 43–57)
- QCOM ($189.39, RSI 43) — Weak-down, GC, -12.9% below SMA20, -18.6% 30D. Distribution: -11.2% 7D on top of -18.6% 30D. The mobile AI/PC AI thesis is getting repriced. Avoid until SMA20 reclaim.
- TXN ($285.42, RSI 45) — Weak-down, GC, -10.1% 30D. Analog semi rolling over. Avoid.
- ARM ($334.27, RSI 48) — Strong-up, GC, but -10.8% below SMA20 and -17.1% 7D. The +131.9% 3M run is extreme (+71.7% vs VWAP). This week's -17% drop is the post-earnings gap-fill. Watch for SMA20 reclaim before adding.
- AMKR ($78.72, RSI 51) — Strong-up, GC, +59.9% vs SMA200, +57.3% vs VWAP. OSATs are key AI packaging plays; not broken, but +57% vs VWAP = don't add here.
- TSM ($432.35, RSI 52) — Strong-up, GC, on the SMA20, +27.7% vs SMA200, +34.5% vs VWAP. -6.8% 7D flag in a strong uptrend. Best core holding in the semis ecosystem.
thesis: unrated. - MRVL ($266.77, RSI 53) — Strong-up, GC, -4.1% below SMA20, +125.2% vs SMA200, +85.6% vs VWAP. Custom ASIC explosion (+181.3% 3M). Extended — hold only; do not add at 85% above VWAP.
- LSCC ($138.76, RSI 49) — Strong-up, GC, +47.8% vs SMA200, +61.1% vs VWAP. FPGA play; -5% 7D flag in uptrend but very extended.
Momentum / Leading (RSI 54–65)
- ASML ($1,794.62, RSI 54) — Strong-up, GC, on SMA20, +39% vs SMA200, +50.1% vs VWAP (borderline parabolic). EUV monopoly; -3.9% 7D is the mildest pullback in the scan. Hold; don't add at >50% above VWAP.
- TLN ($404.09, RSI 55) — Strong-up, GC, +8.4% vs SMA200, +10.9% vs VWAP — the cleanest VWAP positioning of all the power plays. Talen Energy nuclear-power-to-datacenters thesis intact. Hold.
- GEV ($1,045.17, RSI 54) — Strong-up, GC, +33.4% vs SMA200, +42.1% vs VWAP. GE Vernova AI-turbine play; +22.6% 3M. Hold.
- AMAT ($626.84, RSI 64) — Strong-up, GC, +14.6% above SMA20, +90.7% vs SMA200, +104.1% vs VWAP (poc at $186). Applied Materials: the only name up +6% this week; etch/deposition equipment cycle. PARABOLIC vs VWAP — hold if owned, stop-trail, do not initiate.
Parabolic (AMD/INTC/AMAT/MXL — VWAP > 100%)
- AMD (+119.4% vs VWAP) — From $200 base to $521; poc at $214. Hold; don't add; trail.
- INTC (+133.9% vs VWAP) — From $17 base to $128; poc at $36.83. +197.5% 3M. Intel turnaround trade is extreme. Trail stop.
- AMAT (+104.1% vs VWAP) — See above.
- MXL (+103.5% vs VWAP) — MaxLinear; +468% 3M (!); poc at $14.72. Speculative. Extreme momentum; no entry.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 7D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $192.53 | <$190 (SMA200) | 37.9 | -7.3% | Only name near VWAP (+3.3%) with GC intact; oversold in a historically uptrending name; `thesis: intact` |
| AVGO | $365.02 | $355–$365 (SMA200 test) | 40.3 | -4.5% | SMA200 = $360; if it holds, add; if it breaks below $355, wait for next support; leader→weak watch |
| TSM | $432.35 | <$425 (SMA50 retest) | 52.1 | -6.8% | Best core ecosystem hold; flag on SMA20 after 3M run; +27.7% vs SMA200; +34.5% vs VWAP (extended but best of the large-caps) |
| TLN | $404.09 | <$395 (SMA20 retest) | 55.4 | -4.1% | Cleanest VWAP positioning in power plays (+10.9%); GC; nuclear-to-AI thesis |
| ARM | $334.27 | Watch SMA20 reclaim ($374) | 48.4 | -17.1% | Too far below SMA20 to add; wait for reclaim of $375 after the post-earnings gap-fill |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | NVDA | RSI 38, only name near VWAP, GC intact, SMA200 = $190.43; this is the flag entry the thesis calls for |
| 🔍 WATCH | AVGO, TSM, ARM, TLN | AVGO testing SMA200 (key tell); TSM/ARM flags in strong uptrends; TLN cleanest power play |
| 🔒 HOLD | MRVL, ASML, GEV, TSM, AMD, INTC | Thesis intact, strong-up or uptrend; too extended to add but don't sell |
| ⚠️ EXTENDED / DON'T ADD | AMD, INTC, AMAT, MRVL, ARM, LSCC, AMKR | +71-134% vs VWAP; parabolic; hold if owned, trail stop, do not initiate |
| ⚠️ DISTRIBUTION / CAUTION | QCOM, TXN, ON, BE | -10 to -27% 30D while ecosystem recovered; these are the ecosystem's losers; wait for SMA20 reclaim |
| ❌ BROKEN / AVOID | CEG | Nuclear re-rate reversed; strong-down DC, -16.9% vs SMA200, -36% from ATH |
What Changed This Week (EOW)
- NVDA flushed -7.3% to RSI 38 — Now the cleanest entry in the ecosystem: GC intact, just above SMA200 ($190.43), +3.3% vs VWAP (essentially at VWAP). The pullback everyone was waiting for is here.
- AVGO broke from leader to weak — -13.3% 30D, RSI 40; previously a core leader (ASIC custom silicon thesis), now testing the SMA200 at $360. Critical binary: SMA200 hold = rebuy; SMA200 break = distribution.
- QCOM -11.2% 7D = the week's worst large-cap — -18.6% 30D; the mobile/PC AI Snapdragon thesis is getting discounted in price. Not a NVDA-ecosystem play in the same tier.
- ARM -17.1% 7D — post-earnings gap fill — Still +131.9% 3M but -10.8% below SMA20; the earnings print was the catalyst for a rapid mean-reversion. Wait for SMA20 reclaim.
- AMAT +6% bucked the trend — Etch/deposition equipment is seeing its own cycle (AMAT +39.8% 30D). But +104.1% vs VWAP = do not chase; the divergence from the rest of the ecosystem is a flag.
- Power names all pulled back — CEG (-2.1%), GEV (-3.5%), TLN (-4.1%), BE (-9.9%); AI power demand thesis intact but the stocks needed this rest; TLN is still the cleanest (only +10.9% vs VWAP).
- AMD/INTC/AMAT remain parabolic — The 3M runs are +158/+197/+86%; this week's 2-4% pullbacks barely dented the VWAP premium (AMD still +119% vs VWAP). These hold on trail, not add.
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| NVDA at +3.3% vs VWAP vs AMD at +119.4% vs VWAP | The AI GPU backbone (NVDA) is the only non-extended name in its own ecosystem — major divergence; NVDA is the entry, AMD/AMAT are trailing-stop names |
| AVGO -13.3% 30D vs MRVL +34.3% 30D | Custom ASIC story shifted from Broadcom to Marvell this cycle; AVGO's rotation out is real |
| CEG -12.3% 3M while GEV/TLN +22-25% 3M | Power-to-AI thesis split: utility-adjacent nuclear (CEG) de-rated; grid equipment (GEV) + independent power (TLN) held up |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Treating all semis as one cohort because NVDA is up | AVGO is distributing while MRVL rips; QCOM is losing while AMAT gains — the ecosystem is not monolithic |
| Adding to parabolic names (AMD/INTC) above 100% vs VWAP | When poc is $214 and price is $521, a reversion to poc would be -59%; the leverage is hidden in the VWAP gap |
Open Questions
- AVGO SMA200 test at $360: does it bounce (rebuy) or break (distribution confirmed)?
- NVDA SMA200 at $190: is this the bottom of the flag, or does it flush further to the $168-180 value area?
- QCOM: -18.6% 30D during a semi rip — is this idiosyncratic (licensing/China) or leading indicator for the group?
Related
10 events DateTypeEvent
Jun 16 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jul 7 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jul 11 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jul 17 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jul 25 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jun 20 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jul 28 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jul 31 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jun 20 ScanMonster Scan May 29 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan No direct external sources are attached to this read.