NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
Data as-of 2026-07-10 close.
NVDA finally broke its stalemate — after two straight scans stuck at RSI 37.9→42.3 with no resolution, it jumped to RSI 57.2 on a +7.3% weekly move, flipping from weak-down to strong-up GC with the thesis now marked intact. AVGO resolved its three-scan SMA200 test the same way, RSI 45.2→53.7 on a +5.4% week. The flip side: Bloom Energy (BE), last scan's sharpest reversal-up (+16.4% 10D, +111.8% vs VWAP), gave almost all of it back — RSI 52.4→43.0, -18.9% in a week — answering last scan's open question the hard way. INTC also rolled over from its parabolic run (-13.2% 7D). No name in the group screens below RSI 43 or above RSI 58 — this ecosystem, like every other scan this cycle, has compressed into a tight middle band.
Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names. Latest bar 2026-07-10. Note: MU not available in current summaries; AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P (ai-infra.json) and EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH (energy.json) excluded as off-thesis for this ecosystem cut, same as last scan. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-nvda-ecosystem.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 The two-scan stalemate broke — NVDA and AVGO both resolved their multi-scan consolidations upward; BE and INTC gave back recent strength |
| Leaders this window | NVDA (+7.3% 7D, RSI 42.3→57.2, GC confirmed); AVGO (+5.4% 7D, RSI 45.2→53.7, cleared the SMA200 test); TXN (+2.1% 7D, steady climber) |
| Weakest this window | BE (-18.9% 7D, RSI 52.4→43.0 — the sharpest single-name reversal in the scan); INTC (-13.2% 7D, cooled from parabolic); MRVL (-8.4% 7D, still declining) |
| Froth read (vs VWAP) | AMD +125.1%; INTC +89.4%; AMAT +83.2%; MXL +77.8%; BE +70.7% — the parabolic cluster is still parabolic, though INTC and BE both cooled meaningfully from last scan's peaks |
| Key insight | NVDA's setup — unchanged for two scans, "the only name near VWAP with a golden cross" — finally resolved. That was the single most persistent flag in this scan and it just fired. |
What's Going On
Two scans ago NVDA was stuck: RSI 37.9→42.3, weak-down, sitting right at VWAP with a golden cross intact but no price follow-through. That resolved this week — a +7.3% move flipped the trend to strong-up GC and pushed RSI to 57.2, with the thesis flag now reading intact rather than unrated. AVGO did the same thing on the same timeframe: its SMA200 test, flagged as unresolved for three scans running, finally broke upward (+5.4% 7D, RSI 45.2→53.7).
The power/AI-power names went the other way on the volatility front. BE was last scan's headline reversal — a violent +16.4% ten-day move that pushed it to +111.8% above VWAP. The open question then was whether that move would hold or round-trip. It round-tripped: -18.9% in a week, RSI back down to 43.0. INTC also gave back a chunk of its turnaround trade, -13.2% in a week after being flagged "extreme, hold/trail only" last scan. Across the whole group, nothing screens below RSI 43 or above RSI 58 right now — same compression pattern showing up in every scan this cycle.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-07)
- NVDA broke its two-scan stalemate. RSI 42.3→57.2, price $195.55→$210.96 (+7.9%), trend flipped from
weak-downtostrong-up GC, thesisState nowintact. This was the single longest-running unresolved flag in the scan — it just resolved upward. - AVGO cleared its SMA200 test. RSI 45.2→53.7, price $373.90→$399.97 (+7.0%), the best single-week move of the group's "watch" names. Thesis now marked
intact. - BE gave back nearly all of its reversal. RSI 52.4→43.0, price $295.05→$244.61 (-17.1%), -18.9% in the last week alone. Directly answers last scan's open question ("does BE's reversal hold, or round-trip toward the prior lows") — it round-tripped.
- INTC cooled from parabolic. RSI 50.5→43.4, price $122.20→$109.84 (-10.1%), vs-VWAP premium down to +89.4% from +115.1%. Still extreme, but the turnaround trade lost real ground this week.
- MRVL kept declining. RSI 47.6→45.2, price $249.27→$235.81 (-5.4%) — third straight window of cooling off its custom-ASIC run.
- ARM picked up a new thesis flag. Now
intact-but-priced(was unrated) — RSI roughly flat at 47.9, price flat, still +61.7% vs VWAP. - GEV pulled back modestly (RSI 60.7→53.7, price -5.2%) after being the power group's cleanest continuation last scan.
- CEG stabilized slightly (RSI 39.6→45.1, price +2.2%) but remains
strong-down DC, -18.8% vs VWAP — still the group's most broken name. - AMD held its parabolic level (RSI ~flat at 57.6, vwap 125.1% vs 126.5%) — no real change, still hold/trail only.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions; under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought/extended. vs SMA20 is the gap to the 20-day average — a large positive number means a fast recent run. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders; a high number means most of the move is unrealized profit that can get sold into any weakness. Trend pairs direction/strength with a cross signal — GC (golden cross, short-term average above long-term) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross). A stock can have a "good" RSI and still be a bad entry if it's already 80%+ above VWAP — check both numbers, not just one.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | vs VWAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | $244.61 | 43.0 | -14.1% | -18.9% | -1.7% | +38.5% | -30.4% | weak-down GC | +70.7% |
| INTC | $109.84 | 43.4 | -11.8% | -13.2% | -6.1% | +68.5% | -22.8% | weak-down GC | +89.4% |
| ON | $95.96 | 43.8 | -9.8% | -2.0% | -17.2% | +35.1% | -28.9% | weak-down GC | +33.3% |
| AMKR | $70.47 | 44.8 | -11.8% | -2.8% | -7.5% | +16.7% | -27.1% | weak-down GC | +36.6% |
| CEG | $251.38 | 45.1 | -2.1% | +3.3% | +1.9% | -13.7% | -39.1% | strong-down DC | -18.8% |
| MRVL | $235.81 | 45.2 | -13.3% | -8.4% | -16.0% | +79.6% | -28.5% | strong-up GC | +56.7% |
| QCOM | $189.16 | 45.6 | -4.8% | +1.5% | -6.8% | +44.7% | -27.2% | weak-down GC | +8.7% |
| ARM | $323.39 | 47.9 | -9.3% | -2.3% | -5.5% | +105.2% | -28.6% | strong-up GC | +61.7% |
| LSCC | $137.44 | 48.0 | -3.9% | -1.9% | -3.8% | +27.5% | -12.5% | weak-down GC | +54.2% |
| TSM | $434.11 | 49.8 | -1.6% | -5.0% | +3.1% | +17.7% | -9.4% | strong-up GC | +31.9% |
| MXL | $91.30 | 50.1 | -2.3% | -11.5% | +12.6% | +328.4% | -28.8% | strong-up GC | +77.8% |
| ASML | $1,797.32 | 51.1 | -2.3% | -2.8% | -5.4% | +20.1% | -10.1% | strong-up GC | +45.9% |
| TLN | $385.80 | 51.5 | -1.2% | +2.7% | +11.9% | +18.3% | -14.5% | strong-up GC | +4.7% |
| AVGO | $399.97 | 53.7 | +4.5% | +5.4% | +3.9% | +5.5% | -19.2% | weak-down GC | +13.4% |
| GEV | $1,091.57 | 53.7 | +2.5% | -7.8% | +20.4% | +10.2% | -8.7% | strong-up GC | +44.0% |
| AMAT | $602.50 | 53.9 | -1.0% | -1.1% | +9.0% | +52.4% | -18.5% | strong-up GC | +83.2% |
| TXN | $311.46 | 55.4 | +2.6% | +2.1% | +4.8% | +44.5% | -6.8% | strong-up GC | +44.6% |
| NVDA | $210.96 | 57.2 | +4.5% | +7.3% | +3.0% | +11.6% | -10.8% | strong-up GC | +12.3% |
| AMD | $557.89 | 57.6 | +5.1% | -1.5% | +14.2% | +126.0% | -4.6% | strong-up GC | +125.1% |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
None. Every name in this scan is now RSI 40+ — the lowest print is BE at 43.0.
RSI 40+ (everyone else)
- Distribution / still cooling (RSI 43-48): BE, INTC, ON, AMKR, CEG, MRVL, QCOM, ARM, LSCC. BE and INTC are this window's two biggest reversals-down. CEG remains the group's most structurally broken name (
strong-down DC, -39.1% from ATH). - Neutral / resolving (RSI 49-54): TSM, MXL, ASML, TLN, AVGO, GEV, AMAT. AVGO is the standout — its multi-scan SMA200 test just resolved upward.
- Momentum, hold not add (RSI 55-58): TXN, NVDA, AMD. NVDA is the scan's headline: it just broke a two-scan stalemate with a GC confirmation. AMD remains parabolic on VWAP terms even at a middling RSI.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 7D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $210.96 | <$202 (SMA20 retest) | 57.2 | +7.3% | Just resolved a two-scan stalemate with a confirmed GC; +12.3% vs VWAP is still reasonable |
| AVGO | $399.97 | <$383 (SMA20 retest) | 53.7 | +5.4% | Just cleared the long-flagged SMA200 test; best 7D print in the "watch" tier |
| TSM | $434.11 | <$427 (SMA20) | 49.8 | -5.0% | Steady core large-cap; +31.9% vs VWAP is reasonable for the group |
| TLN | $385.80 | <$382 (SMA20 retest) | 51.5 | +2.7% | Cleanest VWAP positioning of the power names (+4.7%) |
| BE | $244.61 | Wait for reversal confirmation | 43.0 | -18.9% | Just gave back most of last scan's reversal; still +70.7% vs VWAP — too soon to call a bottom |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | NVDA, AVGO | Both just resolved multi-scan consolidations upward with confirmed structure; not yet extended vs VWAP |
| 🔒 HOLD | TSM, ASML, GEV, TLN, TXN | Thesis intact, reasonably priced, not a fresh add |
| 🔍 WATCH | ARM, LSCC, MXL, AMAT, QCOM, ON, AMKR | Mixed — some extended (ARM/LSCC/MXL/AMAT), some still declining (QCOM/ON/AMKR); wait for a clear signal |
| ⚠️ CAUTION / REVERSING | BE, INTC, MRVL | All three gave back meaningful ground this window; don't chase either direction until a floor forms |
| ⚠️ EXTENDED / DON'T ADD | AMD | +125.1% vs VWAP, parabolic; hold/trail only |
| ❌ BROKEN / AVOID | CEG | `strong-down DC` persists, -39.1% from ATH, no reversal signal |
What To Watch Next
- NVDA and AVGO both just broke multi-scan stalemates in the same window — does this hold into a real trend, or was it a one-week bounce that needs confirmation next scan?
- BE round-tripped exactly as the last scan's open question worried it might — does it now form a real base, or is there another leg down given it's still +70.7% above VWAP?
- INTC's turnaround trade cooled hard (-13.2% 7D) — is this the start of a real unwind or a normal pullback within the +68.5% 3M run?
- CEG remains the one clearly broken name in the power group while GEV/TLN/BE all show more mixed signals — does the nuclear-to-AI-power thesis ever come back for CEG specifically, or does the capital keep rotating to GEV/TLN instead?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.