NVDA Ecosystem Scan

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NVDA Ecosystem Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 35 rows · screens, not recommendations

Data as-of 2026-07-10 close.

NVDA finally broke its stalemate — after two straight scans stuck at RSI 37.9→42.3 with no resolution, it jumped to RSI 57.2 on a +7.3% weekly move, flipping from weak-down to strong-up GC with the thesis now marked intact. AVGO resolved its three-scan SMA200 test the same way, RSI 45.2→53.7 on a +5.4% week. The flip side: Bloom Energy (BE), last scan's sharpest reversal-up (+16.4% 10D, +111.8% vs VWAP), gave almost all of it back — RSI 52.4→43.0, -18.9% in a week — answering last scan's open question the hard way. INTC also rolled over from its parabolic run (-13.2% 7D). No name in the group screens below RSI 43 or above RSI 58 — this ecosystem, like every other scan this cycle, has compressed into a tight middle band.

Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names. Latest bar 2026-07-10. Note: MU not available in current summaries; AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P (ai-infra.json) and EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH (energy.json) excluded as off-thesis for this ecosystem cut, same as last scan. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-nvda-ecosystem.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 The two-scan stalemate broke — NVDA and AVGO both resolved their multi-scan consolidations upward; BE and INTC gave back recent strength
Leaders this window NVDA (+7.3% 7D, RSI 42.3→57.2, GC confirmed); AVGO (+5.4% 7D, RSI 45.2→53.7, cleared the SMA200 test); TXN (+2.1% 7D, steady climber)
Weakest this window BE (-18.9% 7D, RSI 52.4→43.0 — the sharpest single-name reversal in the scan); INTC (-13.2% 7D, cooled from parabolic); MRVL (-8.4% 7D, still declining)
Froth read (vs VWAP) AMD +125.1%; INTC +89.4%; AMAT +83.2%; MXL +77.8%; BE +70.7% — the parabolic cluster is still parabolic, though INTC and BE both cooled meaningfully from last scan's peaks
Key insight NVDA's setup — unchanged for two scans, "the only name near VWAP with a golden cross" — finally resolved. That was the single most persistent flag in this scan and it just fired.

What's Going On

Two scans ago NVDA was stuck: RSI 37.9→42.3, weak-down, sitting right at VWAP with a golden cross intact but no price follow-through. That resolved this week — a +7.3% move flipped the trend to strong-up GC and pushed RSI to 57.2, with the thesis flag now reading intact rather than unrated. AVGO did the same thing on the same timeframe: its SMA200 test, flagged as unresolved for three scans running, finally broke upward (+5.4% 7D, RSI 45.2→53.7).

The power/AI-power names went the other way on the volatility front. BE was last scan's headline reversal — a violent +16.4% ten-day move that pushed it to +111.8% above VWAP. The open question then was whether that move would hold or round-trip. It round-tripped: -18.9% in a week, RSI back down to 43.0. INTC also gave back a chunk of its turnaround trade, -13.2% in a week after being flagged "extreme, hold/trail only" last scan. Across the whole group, nothing screens below RSI 43 or above RSI 58 right now — same compression pattern showing up in every scan this cycle.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-07)

  • NVDA broke its two-scan stalemate. RSI 42.3→57.2, price $195.55→$210.96 (+7.9%), trend flipped from weak-down to strong-up GC, thesisState now intact. This was the single longest-running unresolved flag in the scan — it just resolved upward.
  • AVGO cleared its SMA200 test. RSI 45.2→53.7, price $373.90→$399.97 (+7.0%), the best single-week move of the group's "watch" names. Thesis now marked intact.
  • BE gave back nearly all of its reversal. RSI 52.4→43.0, price $295.05→$244.61 (-17.1%), -18.9% in the last week alone. Directly answers last scan's open question ("does BE's reversal hold, or round-trip toward the prior lows") — it round-tripped.
  • INTC cooled from parabolic. RSI 50.5→43.4, price $122.20→$109.84 (-10.1%), vs-VWAP premium down to +89.4% from +115.1%. Still extreme, but the turnaround trade lost real ground this week.
  • MRVL kept declining. RSI 47.6→45.2, price $249.27→$235.81 (-5.4%) — third straight window of cooling off its custom-ASIC run.
  • ARM picked up a new thesis flag. Now intact-but-priced (was unrated) — RSI roughly flat at 47.9, price flat, still +61.7% vs VWAP.
  • GEV pulled back modestly (RSI 60.7→53.7, price -5.2%) after being the power group's cleanest continuation last scan.
  • CEG stabilized slightly (RSI 39.6→45.1, price +2.2%) but remains strong-down DC, -18.8% vs VWAP — still the group's most broken name.
  • AMD held its parabolic level (RSI ~flat at 57.6, vwap 125.1% vs 126.5%) — no real change, still hold/trail only.

How To Read The Board

RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions; under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought/extended. vs SMA20 is the gap to the 20-day average — a large positive number means a fast recent run. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders; a high number means most of the move is unrealized profit that can get sold into any weakness. Trend pairs direction/strength with a cross signal — GC (golden cross, short-term average above long-term) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross). A stock can have a "good" RSI and still be a bad entry if it's already 80%+ above VWAP — check both numbers, not just one.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi% Trend vs VWAP
BE $244.61 43.0 -14.1% -18.9% -1.7% +38.5% -30.4% weak-down GC +70.7%
INTC $109.84 43.4 -11.8% -13.2% -6.1% +68.5% -22.8% weak-down GC +89.4%
ON $95.96 43.8 -9.8% -2.0% -17.2% +35.1% -28.9% weak-down GC +33.3%
AMKR $70.47 44.8 -11.8% -2.8% -7.5% +16.7% -27.1% weak-down GC +36.6%
CEG $251.38 45.1 -2.1% +3.3% +1.9% -13.7% -39.1% strong-down DC -18.8%
MRVL $235.81 45.2 -13.3% -8.4% -16.0% +79.6% -28.5% strong-up GC +56.7%
QCOM $189.16 45.6 -4.8% +1.5% -6.8% +44.7% -27.2% weak-down GC +8.7%
ARM $323.39 47.9 -9.3% -2.3% -5.5% +105.2% -28.6% strong-up GC +61.7%
LSCC $137.44 48.0 -3.9% -1.9% -3.8% +27.5% -12.5% weak-down GC +54.2%
TSM $434.11 49.8 -1.6% -5.0% +3.1% +17.7% -9.4% strong-up GC +31.9%
MXL $91.30 50.1 -2.3% -11.5% +12.6% +328.4% -28.8% strong-up GC +77.8%
ASML $1,797.32 51.1 -2.3% -2.8% -5.4% +20.1% -10.1% strong-up GC +45.9%
TLN $385.80 51.5 -1.2% +2.7% +11.9% +18.3% -14.5% strong-up GC +4.7%
AVGO $399.97 53.7 +4.5% +5.4% +3.9% +5.5% -19.2% weak-down GC +13.4%
GEV $1,091.57 53.7 +2.5% -7.8% +20.4% +10.2% -8.7% strong-up GC +44.0%
AMAT $602.50 53.9 -1.0% -1.1% +9.0% +52.4% -18.5% strong-up GC +83.2%
TXN $311.46 55.4 +2.6% +2.1% +4.8% +44.5% -6.8% strong-up GC +44.6%
NVDA $210.96 57.2 +4.5% +7.3% +3.0% +11.6% -10.8% strong-up GC +12.3%
AMD $557.89 57.6 +5.1% -1.5% +14.2% +126.0% -4.6% strong-up GC +125.1%

Tier Analysis

Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)

None.

Oversold (RSI 25-40)

None. Every name in this scan is now RSI 40+ — the lowest print is BE at 43.0.

RSI 40+ (everyone else)

  • Distribution / still cooling (RSI 43-48): BE, INTC, ON, AMKR, CEG, MRVL, QCOM, ARM, LSCC. BE and INTC are this window's two biggest reversals-down. CEG remains the group's most structurally broken name (strong-down DC, -39.1% from ATH).
  • Neutral / resolving (RSI 49-54): TSM, MXL, ASML, TLN, AVGO, GEV, AMAT. AVGO is the standout — its multi-scan SMA200 test just resolved upward.
  • Momentum, hold not add (RSI 55-58): TXN, NVDA, AMD. NVDA is the scan's headline: it just broke a two-scan stalemate with a GC confirmation. AMD remains parabolic on VWAP terms even at a middling RSI.

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 7D% Setup
NVDA $210.96 <$202 (SMA20 retest) 57.2 +7.3% Just resolved a two-scan stalemate with a confirmed GC; +12.3% vs VWAP is still reasonable
AVGO $399.97 <$383 (SMA20 retest) 53.7 +5.4% Just cleared the long-flagged SMA200 test; best 7D print in the "watch" tier
TSM $434.11 <$427 (SMA20) 49.8 -5.0% Steady core large-cap; +31.9% vs VWAP is reasonable for the group
TLN $385.80 <$382 (SMA20 retest) 51.5 +2.7% Cleanest VWAP positioning of the power names (+4.7%)
BE $244.61 Wait for reversal confirmation 43.0 -18.9% Just gave back most of last scan's reversal; still +70.7% vs VWAP — too soon to call a bottom

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
📈 ACCUMULATE NVDA, AVGO Both just resolved multi-scan consolidations upward with confirmed structure; not yet extended vs VWAP
🔒 HOLD TSM, ASML, GEV, TLN, TXN Thesis intact, reasonably priced, not a fresh add
🔍 WATCH ARM, LSCC, MXL, AMAT, QCOM, ON, AMKR Mixed — some extended (ARM/LSCC/MXL/AMAT), some still declining (QCOM/ON/AMKR); wait for a clear signal
⚠️ CAUTION / REVERSING BE, INTC, MRVL All three gave back meaningful ground this window; don't chase either direction until a floor forms
⚠️ EXTENDED / DON'T ADD AMD +125.1% vs VWAP, parabolic; hold/trail only
❌ BROKEN / AVOID CEG `strong-down DC` persists, -39.1% from ATH, no reversal signal

What To Watch Next

  • NVDA and AVGO both just broke multi-scan stalemates in the same window — does this hold into a real trend, or was it a one-week bounce that needs confirmation next scan?
  • BE round-tripped exactly as the last scan's open question worried it might — does it now form a real base, or is there another leg down given it's still +70.7% above VWAP?
  • INTC's turnaround trade cooled hard (-13.2% 7D) — is this the start of a real unwind or a normal pullback within the +68.5% 3M run?
  • CEG remains the one clearly broken name in the power group while GEV/TLN/BE all show more mixed signals — does the nuclear-to-AI-power thesis ever come back for CEG specifically, or does the capital keep rotating to GEV/TLN instead?
10 events

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