NVDA Ecosystem Scan

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NVDA Ecosystem Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 33 rows · screens, not recommendations

Data as-of 2026-07-17 close.

The whole ecosystem round-tripped. Every legacy name in this cut cooled from its July 11 reading — NVDA gave back its just-confirmed breakout entirely (RSI 57.2 → 48.1, trend back to weak-down), and AVGO gave back its SMA200 clearance the same way (53.7 → 43.8). MRVL and ARM are the worst of it, both down roughly 39% over 30 days and both now in the RSI 35-38 oversold band. Nothing in the group screens above RSI 51 today — a total reversal of two scans ago, when NVDA/AVGO's breakout was the headline.

Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names. Latest bar 2026-07-17 for every name in this cut. Note: AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P (ai-infra.json) and EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC (energy.json) excluded as off-thesis for this ecosystem cut, same as last scan. SWKS is a new entrant to this cut's semis coverage this session. MU is not present in the current semis.json summary — no read on it here. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-nvda-ecosystem.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 Broad pullback — every one of the 19 legacy names cooled from July 11, and NVDA/AVGO gave back their just-confirmed breakouts entirely
Leaders this window GEV (RSI 50.2, the group's highest print); NVDA (48.1, thesis still marked intact); ASML (47.9, still `strong-up GC` structurally)
Weakest this window MRVL (RSI 35.7, -39.2% 30D, worst 30-day mover, cooling for multiple scans straight); ARM (38.4, -39.2% 30D); MXL (-21.3% 7D, the single worst weekly move in the group)
Froth read (vs VWAP) AMD +95.6%; INTC +60.8%; AMAT +57.7%; KYMR-adjacent power names cooler — BE +47.1% — the parabolic cluster cooled some but is still extended
Key insight This isn't a single-name story — every name's RSI declined since July 11, the mirror image of what happened after the prior scan when NVDA and AVGO resolved upward. The whole ecosystem gave it back.

What's Going On

Two scans ago the headline was NVDA and AVGO both resolving multi-scan consolidations upward. That's fully unwound. NVDA's RSI fell from 57.2 to 48.1 over the past week (semis.json, change7d -3.86%), and the trend classifier flipped back from strong-up GC to weak-down — the golden cross is still technically in place, but short-term momentum reversed. AVGO did the same thing in reverse: RSI 53.7 → 43.8, -7.29% over the past week, also back to weak-down.

MRVL and ARM are the worst-hit names in the group. MRVL's RSI fell to 35.7 (-19.99% over the past week, -39.23% over 30 days) — this is now several consecutive scans of decline for the custom-ASIC name with no sign of a floor. ARM cooled almost identically, RSI 47.9 → 38.4, -39.2% over 30 days, even though its thesis flag still reads intact-but-priced.

MXL had the single worst week of any name in the scan: -21.31% over the past 7 days, dropping its RSI from 50.1 to 40.5. INTC and BE both continued declines flagged as unresolved last scan — INTC's RSI is down to 36.5 (-13.47% 7D), and BE is down to 39.0 (-12.12% 7D) after "giving back nearly all of its reversal" the cycle before.

CEG remains the group's most structurally broken name — strong-down DC, -38.84% from its 52-week high — while GEV and TLN cooled more mildly and are still the relatively cleaner power names in the cohort.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-11)

  • NVDA gave back its breakout. RSI 57.2 (07-11) → 48.1 today, trend back to weak-down after -3.86% over the past week. Thesis still marked intact.
  • AVGO gave back its SMA200 clearance. RSI 53.7 → 43.8, -7.29% over the past week — the same "resolved upward" call from last scan just reversed.
  • MRVL kept sliding for a third-plus straight window. RSI 45.2 → 35.7, -19.99% over the past week, -39.23% over 30 days — now the group's single worst 30-day performer.
  • ARM cooled just as hard as MRVL. RSI 47.9 → 38.4, -17.38% over the past week, -39.2% over 30 days.
  • MXL had the worst single week in the group. -21.31% (change7d), RSI 50.1 → 40.5.
  • AMD's parabolic premium eased but stayed extreme. vs-VWAP down to +95.55% from +125.1%, RSI 57.6 → 46.3, -11.14% over the past week.
  • BE continued its decline for a second straight scan. RSI 43.0 → 39.0, -12.12% over the past week, -34.64% over 30 days — the reversal the July 11 scan was watching for never showed up.
  • INTC kept cooling. RSI 43.4 → 36.5, -13.47% over the past week, -29.07% over 30 days.
  • CEG barely moved in price (change7d +0.4%) but remains the group's most broken name, still strong-down DC, -38.84% from ATH.
  • GEV and TLN both cooled modestly (GEV 53.7→50.2, TLN 51.5→46.3) but stay the relatively least-damaged names in the power cohort.
  • SWKS is a new entrant to this cut — present in the current semis.json summary for the first time in this ecosystem read; RSI 39.0, down GC, thesis unrated.

How To Read The Board

RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions; under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought/extended. vs SMA20 is the gap to the 20-day average — a large negative number means a fast recent decline. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders; a high number means most of the move is unrealized profit that can get sold into any weakness. Trend pairs direction/strength with a cross signal — GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross), though a name can carry a golden cross flag while its short-term trend reads weak-down, as several names here do. Check both the RSI and the VWAP premium together — a "good" RSI can still sit on top of an 80%+ VWAP premium that has plenty of room to unwind.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi% Trend vs VWAP
MRVL $188.68 35.7 -25.0% -20.0% -39.2% +27.7% -42.8% weak-down GC +23.6%
INTC $95.04 36.5 -20.5% -13.5% -29.1% +44.7% -33.2% weak-down GC +60.8%
ARM $267.19 38.4 -18.6% -17.4% -39.2% +52.6% -41.0% weak-down GC +32.0%
QCOM $171.78 38.5 -9.5% -9.2% -24.0% +25.4% -33.9% weak-down GC -1.5%
BE $214.96 39.0 -21.6% -12.1% -34.6% -1.5% -38.8% weak-down GC +47.1%
SWKS $59.35 39.0 -7.6% -1.7% -18.1% +0.7% -34.7% down GC -9.7%
ON $87.37 39.1 -12.2% -9.0% -28.2% +2.1% -35.2% weak-down GC +20.5%
AMKR $62.94 39.3 -16.7% -10.7% -30.4% -9.3% -34.9% weak-down GC +20.7%
TSM $398.37 39.4 -8.9% -8.2% -13.8% +9.0% -16.8% weak-down GC +19.4%
LSCC $125.23 40.5 -10.1% -8.9% -18.5% +5.4% -20.2% weak-down GC +38.6%
MXL $71.84 40.5 -22.9% -21.3% -19.1% +126.4% -44.0% weak-down GC +37.0%
TXN $284.02 43.6 -5.9% -8.8% -12.0% +22.2% -15.0% weak-down GC +31.0%
AVGO $370.83 43.8 -2.9% -7.3% -9.7% -7.1% -25.1% weak-down GC +4.8%
AMAT $529.66 43.9 -12.8% -12.1% -14.2% +35.4% -28.4% strong-up GC +57.7%
AMD $495.76 46.3 -7.0% -11.1% -7.7% +80.3% -15.2% weak-down GC +95.6%
CEG $252.39 46.3 -1.3% +0.4% -7.9% -12.1% -38.8% strong-down DC -18.2%
TLN $372.37 46.3 -5.0% -3.5% -14.7% +7.5% -17.5% weak-down GC +0.2%
ASML $1,747.58 47.9 -3.7% -2.8% -9.4% +18.6% -12.6% strong-up GC +37.7%
NVDA $202.81 48.1 +0.3% -3.9% -3.7% +0.5% -14.3% weak-down GC +7.6%
GEV $1,057.84 50.2 -2.5% -3.1% -4.7% +6.9% -11.6% strong-up GC +38.0%

Tier Analysis

Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)

None.

Oversold (RSI 25-40)

MRVL (35.7), INTC (36.5), ARM (38.4), QCOM (38.5), BE (39.0), SWKS (39.0), ON (39.1), AMKR (39.3), TSM (39.4). Nine of the group's 20 names now sit in this band — none has confirmed a trend flip.

RSI 40+ (everyone else)

  • Still cooling (RSI 40-44): LSCC, MXL, TXN, AVGO, AMAT. AVGO is the standout reversal — its "resolved upward" call from last scan just gave it back.
  • Neutral / resolving (RSI 44-48): AMD, CEG, TLN, ASML. CEG remains the group's most structurally broken name (strong-down DC, -38.8% from ATH); the other three are cooling but not broken.
  • Least-damaged (RSI 48+): NVDA, GEV. NVDA gave back its whole breakout this window but thesis is still marked intact; GEV holds the group's highest RSI print.

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 7D% Setup
NVDA $202.81 <$186.48 (support shelf) 48.1 -3.9% Gave back its breakout but thesis still marked intact; watch for the golden-cross momentum to reassert
ASML $1,747.58 <$1,477.43 (support shelf) 47.9 -2.8% Structurally the cleanest name left standing — still `strong-up GC` despite the pullback
TSM $398.37 <$344.76 (support shelf) 39.4 -8.2% Core large-cap, now in the oversold band; support shelf sits well below current price
GEV $1,057.84 <$654.20 (support shelf) 50.2 -3.1% Highest RSI left in the power cohort; support shelf far below, room to fall before a real test
BE $214.96 <$153.57 (support shelf) 39.0 -12.1% Second straight scan of decline after last cycle's round-trip; no reversal signal yet

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD NVDA, ASML, AVGO, GEV, TLN, AMAT Thesis intact or structurally still up; not a fresh add given the broad pullback
🔍 WATCH TSM, AMD, TXN, LSCC, MXL, ON, AMKR, QCOM, ARM, SWKS Mixed — cooling but not confirmed broken; wait for a clear signal either way
❌ BROKEN / AVOID MRVL, INTC, BE, CEG Multiple scans of decline with no reversal signal (`weak-down` or `strong-down DC`); worst 30-day performers in the group

What To Watch Next

  • Does NVDA/AVGO's pullback resolve as a normal retest of the breakout, or does the golden cross fail given the trend already reads weak-down?
  • MRVL and ARM have now cooled for multiple scans straight (both -39% 30D) — is there a name-specific catalyst, or is the broader chip cycle rolling over?
  • CEG remains the single most broken name in the power cohort while GEV/TLN cool more mildly — does the power thesis keep bifurcating this way?
  • BE never found the floor the July 11 scan was looking for — does a real reversal show up next scan, or does the decline keep compounding?

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.