NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
Data as-of 2026-07-17 close.
The whole ecosystem round-tripped. Every legacy name in this cut cooled from its July 11 reading — NVDA gave back its just-confirmed breakout entirely (RSI 57.2 → 48.1, trend back to weak-down), and AVGO gave back its SMA200 clearance the same way (53.7 → 43.8). MRVL and ARM are the worst of it, both down roughly 39% over 30 days and both now in the RSI 35-38 oversold band. Nothing in the group screens above RSI 51 today — a total reversal of two scans ago, when NVDA/AVGO's breakout was the headline.
Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names. Latest bar 2026-07-17 for every name in this cut. Note: AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P (ai-infra.json) and EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC (energy.json) excluded as off-thesis for this ecosystem cut, same as last scan. SWKS is a new entrant to this cut's semis coverage this session. MU is not present in the current semis.json summary — no read on it here. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-nvda-ecosystem.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 Broad pullback — every one of the 19 legacy names cooled from July 11, and NVDA/AVGO gave back their just-confirmed breakouts entirely |
| Leaders this window | GEV (RSI 50.2, the group's highest print); NVDA (48.1, thesis still marked intact); ASML (47.9, still `strong-up GC` structurally) |
| Weakest this window | MRVL (RSI 35.7, -39.2% 30D, worst 30-day mover, cooling for multiple scans straight); ARM (38.4, -39.2% 30D); MXL (-21.3% 7D, the single worst weekly move in the group) |
| Froth read (vs VWAP) | AMD +95.6%; INTC +60.8%; AMAT +57.7%; KYMR-adjacent power names cooler — BE +47.1% — the parabolic cluster cooled some but is still extended |
| Key insight | This isn't a single-name story — every name's RSI declined since July 11, the mirror image of what happened after the prior scan when NVDA and AVGO resolved upward. The whole ecosystem gave it back. |
What's Going On
Two scans ago the headline was NVDA and AVGO both resolving multi-scan consolidations upward. That's fully unwound. NVDA's RSI fell from 57.2 to 48.1 over the past week (semis.json, change7d -3.86%), and the trend classifier flipped back from strong-up GC to weak-down — the golden cross is still technically in place, but short-term momentum reversed. AVGO did the same thing in reverse: RSI 53.7 → 43.8, -7.29% over the past week, also back to weak-down.
MRVL and ARM are the worst-hit names in the group. MRVL's RSI fell to 35.7 (-19.99% over the past week, -39.23% over 30 days) — this is now several consecutive scans of decline for the custom-ASIC name with no sign of a floor. ARM cooled almost identically, RSI 47.9 → 38.4, -39.2% over 30 days, even though its thesis flag still reads intact-but-priced.
MXL had the single worst week of any name in the scan: -21.31% over the past 7 days, dropping its RSI from 50.1 to 40.5. INTC and BE both continued declines flagged as unresolved last scan — INTC's RSI is down to 36.5 (-13.47% 7D), and BE is down to 39.0 (-12.12% 7D) after "giving back nearly all of its reversal" the cycle before.
CEG remains the group's most structurally broken name — strong-down DC, -38.84% from its 52-week high — while GEV and TLN cooled more mildly and are still the relatively cleaner power names in the cohort.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-11)
- NVDA gave back its breakout. RSI 57.2 (07-11) → 48.1 today, trend back to
weak-downafter -3.86% over the past week. Thesis still markedintact. - AVGO gave back its SMA200 clearance. RSI 53.7 → 43.8, -7.29% over the past week — the same "resolved upward" call from last scan just reversed.
- MRVL kept sliding for a third-plus straight window. RSI 45.2 → 35.7, -19.99% over the past week, -39.23% over 30 days — now the group's single worst 30-day performer.
- ARM cooled just as hard as MRVL. RSI 47.9 → 38.4, -17.38% over the past week, -39.2% over 30 days.
- MXL had the worst single week in the group. -21.31% (change7d), RSI 50.1 → 40.5.
- AMD's parabolic premium eased but stayed extreme. vs-VWAP down to +95.55% from +125.1%, RSI 57.6 → 46.3, -11.14% over the past week.
- BE continued its decline for a second straight scan. RSI 43.0 → 39.0, -12.12% over the past week, -34.64% over 30 days — the reversal the July 11 scan was watching for never showed up.
- INTC kept cooling. RSI 43.4 → 36.5, -13.47% over the past week, -29.07% over 30 days.
- CEG barely moved in price (change7d +0.4%) but remains the group's most broken name, still
strong-down DC, -38.84% from ATH. - GEV and TLN both cooled modestly (GEV 53.7→50.2, TLN 51.5→46.3) but stay the relatively least-damaged names in the power cohort.
- SWKS is a new entrant to this cut — present in the current semis.json summary for the first time in this ecosystem read; RSI 39.0,
down GC, thesis unrated.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions; under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought/extended. vs SMA20 is the gap to the 20-day average — a large negative number means a fast recent decline. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders; a high number means most of the move is unrealized profit that can get sold into any weakness. Trend pairs direction/strength with a cross signal — GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross), though a name can carry a golden cross flag while its short-term trend reads weak-down, as several names here do. Check both the RSI and the VWAP premium together — a "good" RSI can still sit on top of an 80%+ VWAP premium that has plenty of room to unwind.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | vs VWAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL | $188.68 | 35.7 | -25.0% | -20.0% | -39.2% | +27.7% | -42.8% | weak-down GC | +23.6% |
| INTC | $95.04 | 36.5 | -20.5% | -13.5% | -29.1% | +44.7% | -33.2% | weak-down GC | +60.8% |
| ARM | $267.19 | 38.4 | -18.6% | -17.4% | -39.2% | +52.6% | -41.0% | weak-down GC | +32.0% |
| QCOM | $171.78 | 38.5 | -9.5% | -9.2% | -24.0% | +25.4% | -33.9% | weak-down GC | -1.5% |
| BE | $214.96 | 39.0 | -21.6% | -12.1% | -34.6% | -1.5% | -38.8% | weak-down GC | +47.1% |
| SWKS | $59.35 | 39.0 | -7.6% | -1.7% | -18.1% | +0.7% | -34.7% | down GC | -9.7% |
| ON | $87.37 | 39.1 | -12.2% | -9.0% | -28.2% | +2.1% | -35.2% | weak-down GC | +20.5% |
| AMKR | $62.94 | 39.3 | -16.7% | -10.7% | -30.4% | -9.3% | -34.9% | weak-down GC | +20.7% |
| TSM | $398.37 | 39.4 | -8.9% | -8.2% | -13.8% | +9.0% | -16.8% | weak-down GC | +19.4% |
| LSCC | $125.23 | 40.5 | -10.1% | -8.9% | -18.5% | +5.4% | -20.2% | weak-down GC | +38.6% |
| MXL | $71.84 | 40.5 | -22.9% | -21.3% | -19.1% | +126.4% | -44.0% | weak-down GC | +37.0% |
| TXN | $284.02 | 43.6 | -5.9% | -8.8% | -12.0% | +22.2% | -15.0% | weak-down GC | +31.0% |
| AVGO | $370.83 | 43.8 | -2.9% | -7.3% | -9.7% | -7.1% | -25.1% | weak-down GC | +4.8% |
| AMAT | $529.66 | 43.9 | -12.8% | -12.1% | -14.2% | +35.4% | -28.4% | strong-up GC | +57.7% |
| AMD | $495.76 | 46.3 | -7.0% | -11.1% | -7.7% | +80.3% | -15.2% | weak-down GC | +95.6% |
| CEG | $252.39 | 46.3 | -1.3% | +0.4% | -7.9% | -12.1% | -38.8% | strong-down DC | -18.2% |
| TLN | $372.37 | 46.3 | -5.0% | -3.5% | -14.7% | +7.5% | -17.5% | weak-down GC | +0.2% |
| ASML | $1,747.58 | 47.9 | -3.7% | -2.8% | -9.4% | +18.6% | -12.6% | strong-up GC | +37.7% |
| NVDA | $202.81 | 48.1 | +0.3% | -3.9% | -3.7% | +0.5% | -14.3% | weak-down GC | +7.6% |
| GEV | $1,057.84 | 50.2 | -2.5% | -3.1% | -4.7% | +6.9% | -11.6% | strong-up GC | +38.0% |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
MRVL (35.7), INTC (36.5), ARM (38.4), QCOM (38.5), BE (39.0), SWKS (39.0), ON (39.1), AMKR (39.3), TSM (39.4). Nine of the group's 20 names now sit in this band — none has confirmed a trend flip.
RSI 40+ (everyone else)
- Still cooling (RSI 40-44): LSCC, MXL, TXN, AVGO, AMAT. AVGO is the standout reversal — its "resolved upward" call from last scan just gave it back.
- Neutral / resolving (RSI 44-48): AMD, CEG, TLN, ASML. CEG remains the group's most structurally broken name (
strong-down DC, -38.8% from ATH); the other three are cooling but not broken. - Least-damaged (RSI 48+): NVDA, GEV. NVDA gave back its whole breakout this window but thesis is still marked
intact; GEV holds the group's highest RSI print.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 7D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $202.81 | <$186.48 (support shelf) | 48.1 | -3.9% | Gave back its breakout but thesis still marked intact; watch for the golden-cross momentum to reassert |
| ASML | $1,747.58 | <$1,477.43 (support shelf) | 47.9 | -2.8% | Structurally the cleanest name left standing — still `strong-up GC` despite the pullback |
| TSM | $398.37 | <$344.76 (support shelf) | 39.4 | -8.2% | Core large-cap, now in the oversold band; support shelf sits well below current price |
| GEV | $1,057.84 | <$654.20 (support shelf) | 50.2 | -3.1% | Highest RSI left in the power cohort; support shelf far below, room to fall before a real test |
| BE | $214.96 | <$153.57 (support shelf) | 39.0 | -12.1% | Second straight scan of decline after last cycle's round-trip; no reversal signal yet |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA, ASML, AVGO, GEV, TLN, AMAT | Thesis intact or structurally still up; not a fresh add given the broad pullback |
| 🔍 WATCH | TSM, AMD, TXN, LSCC, MXL, ON, AMKR, QCOM, ARM, SWKS | Mixed — cooling but not confirmed broken; wait for a clear signal either way |
| ❌ BROKEN / AVOID | MRVL, INTC, BE, CEG | Multiple scans of decline with no reversal signal (`weak-down` or `strong-down DC`); worst 30-day performers in the group |
What To Watch Next
- Does NVDA/AVGO's pullback resolve as a normal retest of the breakout, or does the golden cross fail given the trend already reads
weak-down? - MRVL and ARM have now cooled for multiple scans straight (both -39% 30D) — is there a name-specific catalyst, or is the broader chip cycle rolling over?
- CEG remains the single most broken name in the power cohort while GEV/TLN cool more mildly — does the power thesis keep bifurcating this way?
- BE never found the floor the July 11 scan was looking for — does a real reversal show up next scan, or does the decline keep compounding?
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.