NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
Data as-of 2026-07-31 close, except TXN which carries a 2026-07-29 bar — read that row as two sessions stale.
**The group's synchronized slide reversed hard. Fifteen of 20 names sat in the 25-40 oversold band last scan; now only six do. AMKR — last scan's worst single-day mover — recovered from RSI 27.4 to 35.5, and NVDA climbed back to 48.6 from 43.0. The one name that kept falling instead of bouncing is QCOM (RSI 36.5 → 29.3), now the cut's only sub-30 print.
SWKS (RSI 52.7 → 47.6), the lone riser last scan, gave that back — the group's biggest reversal-of-a-reversal.**
Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names. Latest bar 2026-07-31 for every name in this cut except TXN (2026-07-29). Note: AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P (ai-infra.json) and EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC (energy.json) excluded as off-thesis for this ecosystem cut, same methodology as last scan. Prior scan: 2026-07-28-nvda-ecosystem.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Broad recovery — only 6 of 20 names remain oversold, down from 15 last scan; the group's slide reversed hard but the regime classifier still reads "pullback" for most, not a confirmed uptrend |
| Leaders | AVGO (RSI 51.3, cooled least of the group, thesis marked intact); CEG (50.6, recovered out of "collapse"); NVDA (48.6, thesis still marked intact after climbing back from 43.0) |
| Laggards | QCOM (RSI 29.3↓, the only name that kept falling, now "collapse" regime); AMKR (35.5, still recovering from the cut's steepest prior break); ARM (37.5, recovery lagging peers) |
| Key insight | Fifteen of 20 names moved out of the oversold band together this scan — a group-wide bounce, not 20 independent recoveries — but SWKS (the one name that had bucked the decline) gave its gain back, and QCOM diverged the other way |
What's Going On
The whole cut reversed together. Where 15 of 20 names sat in the 25-40 RSI band three sessions ago, only six do now — AMKR led the recovery, climbing from RSI 27.4 to 35.5 even as its 7-day return stayed negative (-23.23%, change7d per semis.json), a sign the RSI gain came from a sharp bounce off a deeper low rather than a clean turn. INTC (33.9 → 40.0), MRVL (34.3 → 41.6), ASML (37.1 → 42.8), BE (33.3 → 44.6), and AMD (39.4 → 45.3) all posted comparably large RSI recoveries this scan.
QCOM is the one name that moved the wrong way through the bounce. RSI fell from 36.5 to 29.3 — now the cut's only sub-30 print — on a -11.59% single week and -18.86% over 30 days, with the regime classifier downgraded to "collapse." That's a clear divergence from a group that otherwise recovered in unison.
SWKS gave back last scan's status as the lone riser. RSI fell from 52.7 to 47.6, +3.44% over the week even as the RSI itself eased — the group's only reversal-of-a-reversal this scan, and its trend classifier remains a plain down GC rather than confirming a turn.
NVDA and AVGO both climbed back from mid-cut reads without breaking into a confirmed uptrend regime. NVDA's RSI moved from 43.0 to 48.6, and AVGO's from 47.5 to 51.3 — both still carry a "pullback" regime classification, and both retain a thesis flag of "intact" on file. TXN's bar is two sessions stale (2026-07-29), so its RSI of 38.1 likely understates whatever bounce the rest of the group posted through Thursday and Friday.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-28)
- The oversold band shrank from 15 names to 6. Six names remain in oversold territory — QCOM (RSI 29.3), AMKR (35.5), plus ARM, TXN (stale), ON, and TLN — down from 15 of 20 last scan.
- AMKR recovered from the cut's steepest prior break. RSI 27.4 → 35.5, though change7d is still -23.23% — a bounce off a deeper low, not a clean reversal.
- QCOM is the one name that kept falling. RSI 36.5 → 29.3, the only sub-30 print in the cut; regime downgraded to "collapse."
- NVDA climbed back above 40. RSI 43.0 → 48.6, thesis still marked "intact."
- SWKS gave back its lone-riser status. RSI 52.7 → 47.6 — the only name in the cut whose RSI fell this scan while the rest of the group rose.
- ASML, INTC, MRVL, BE, and AMD all posted comparably large recoveries, each moving up 5-11 RSI points from last scan's reads.
- TXN's bar is two sessions stale (2026-07-29) — its RSI of 38.1 may not reflect the rest of the group's Thursday-Friday bounce.
- Universe unchanged. Same 20 tickers as the July 28 cut (16 from semis.json plus BE/CEG/GEV/TLN from energy.json) — no entrants or dropouts, same exclusion list.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions; under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought/extended. vs SMA20 is the gap to the 20-day average — a large negative number means a fast recent decline. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders; a high number means most of the move is unrealized profit that can get sold into any weakness. Trend pairs direction/strength with a cross signal — GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross), though a name can carry a golden-cross flag while its regime classifier still reads "collapse," as QCOM does here. A group-wide RSI recovery like this scan's is a sector-wide re-rating, not 20 independent stories — and most of these names still carry a "pullback" regime rather than a confirmed uptrend, so treat the bounce as unresolved rather than a green light.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | vs VWAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM | $147.61 | 29.3 ↓ | -14.8% | -11.6% | -18.9% | -16.3% | -43.2% | down GC | -15.4% |
| AMKR | $49.87 | 35.5 | -20.1% | -23.2% | -37.7% | -29.8% | -48.4% | down GC | -6.2% |
| ARM | $239.69 | 37.5 | -13.8% | -7.8% | -29.0% | +13.5% | -47.1% | weak-down GC | +16.4% |
| TXN* | $271.30 | 38.1 | -7.3% | -7.8% | -9.0% | -3.0% | -18.8% | weak-down GC | +23.0% |
| ON | $81.61 | 38.9 | -8.8% | -6.0% | -13.8% | -20.8% | -39.5% | weak-down GC | +10.9% |
| TLN | $334.10 | 39.4 | -8.7% | -7.2% | -7.4% | -10.2% | -26.0% | down GC | -10.6% |
| INTC | $90.20 | 40.0 | -10.2% | -2.3% | -29.0% | -9.5% | -36.6% | weak-down GC | +45.7% |
| MRVL | $187.56 | 41.6 | -9.2% | -3.4% | -31.0% | +13.7% | -43.1% | weak-down GC | +20.1% |
| MXL | $66.82 | 42.3 | -16.3% | -6.7% | -40.6% | -13.4% | -47.9% | weak-down GC | +19.5% |
| ASML | $1,629.00 | 42.8 | -6.2% | -7.2% | -11.5% | +14.3% | -18.6% | weak-down GC | +23.5% |
| BE | $205.81 | 44.6 | -7.2% | +11.3% | -28.9% | -29.2% | -41.4% | weak-down GC | +33.6% |
| LSCC | $124.27 | 44.7 | -4.2% | -3.2% | -15.1% | +2.7% | -20.9% | weak-down GC | +33.9% |
| AMD | $476.15 | 45.3 | -7.6% | -8.8% | -12.0% | +32.1% | -18.6% | weak-down GC | +79.8% |
| AMAT | $507.67 | 45.4 | -7.1% | -5.3% | -22.0% | +30.6% | -31.4% | weak-down GC | +46.3% |
| TSM | $404.25 | 46.2 | -2.6% | +0.2% | -9.0% | +1.9% | -15.6% | weak-down GC | +18.9% |
| GEV | $990.29 | 46.3 | -4.4% | -2.4% | -12.7% | -6.8% | -17.2% | weak-down GC | +26.3% |
| SWKS | $62.28 | 47.6 | +2.9% | +3.4% | -5.5% | -9.5% | -31.5% | down GC | -4.8% |
| NVDA | $200.75 | 48.6 | -1.3% | -2.9% | +1.6% | +1.3% | -15.1% | weak-down GC | +6.0% |
| CEG | $262.75 | 50.6 | +1.8% | -4.2% | +11.1% | -14.5% | -36.3% | strong-down DC | -14.2% |
| AVGO | $389.28 | 51.3 | +1.2% | +1.9% | +5.4% | -7.5% | -21.4% | weak-down GC | +9.2% |
*TXN carries a 2026-07-29 bar — two sessions stale; read this row with that caveat.
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold band (RSI 25-40)
| Stock | RSI | Note |
|---|---|---|
| QCOM | 29.3 | The only name that dropped further rather than recovering |
| AMKR | 35.5 | Recovering off the cut's steepest prior break |
| ARM | 37.5 | Recovery lagging peers |
| TXN | 38.1 | Bar two sessions stale |
| ON | 38.9 | — |
| TLN | 39.4 | — |
Six names — down from 15 last scan.
Neutral and above (everyone else)
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 7D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $200.75 | <$186.48 (support shelf) | 48.6 | -2.9% | Climbed back from 43.0, thesis still marked intact, regime still "pullback" |
| ASML | $1,629.00 | <$1,475.53 (support shelf) | 42.8 | -7.2% | Recovering with the group, support shelf sits below current price |
| QCOM | $147.61 | <$135.85 (support shelf) | 29.3 | -11.6% | Only name that kept falling through the group's bounce; regime now "collapse" |
| AMKR | $49.87 | <$48.06 (support shelf) | 35.5 | -23.2% | Recovering off the cut's steepest prior break, still down on the week |
| SWKS | $62.28 | <$61.38 (support shelf) | 47.6 | +3.4% | Gave back last scan's lone-riser status; no longer the group's outlier |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA, AVGO | Thesis marked intact, climbed back from mid-cut reads, regime still "pullback" not confirmed uptrend |
| 🔍 WATCH | AMD, TSM, ARM, MRVL, ASML, AMAT, ON, LSCC, TXN, MXL, GEV, BE, INTC | Broad pullback-regime recovery, unrated thesis, no confirmed floor either way |
| ❌ AVOID / FALLING KNIFE | QCOM, AMKR, CEG, SWKS, TLN | "Collapse" or "downtrend" regime — the most structurally damaged names in the cut despite this scan's bounce |
What To Watch Next
- The synchronized 15-of-20 oversold slide reversed hard this scan — does the bounce hold, or does the group roll back over now that the squeeze has passed?
- QCOM is the one name that kept falling through the reversal (RSI 36.5 → 29.3) — does it find a floor, or does it keep diverging from the rest of the group?
- SWKS gave back last scan's lone-riser status (52.7 → 47.6) — was that reversal a one-off, or does it keep fading?
- TXN's bar is two sessions stale (2026-07-29) — does the next refresh show it caught up with the rest of the group's bounce, or lagged behind?
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
Related
8 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.