NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
Data as-of 2026-07-24 close (Friday settled close).
CEG posted the group's biggest reversal this week — RSI 46.3 → 60.4, price +8.70% over the past week — even as the trend classifier still carries a death cross. NVDA and AMD both climbed back above RSI 50 (48.1 → 51.0, 46.3 → 50.0) after last scan's full round-trip erased their breakouts, and AVGO followed the same path (43.8 → 47.6). Not everyone recovered: BE kept falling (39.0 → 36.2, now -43.3% over 30 days, the group's worst mover), and the two power names that held up best last scan — GEV and TLN — both cooled further (50.2 → 45.4, 46.3 → 43.2) as the group's bid rotated into CEG instead.
Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names. Latest bar 2026-07-24 for every name in this cut. Note: AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P (ai-infra.json) and EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC (energy.json) excluded as off-thesis for this ecosystem cut, same methodology as last scan. Prior scan: 2026-07-17-nvda-ecosystem.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Mixed, recovering — chip names broadly bounced (NVDA, AMD, AVGO all up) but BE, GEV, and TLN kept cooling as the power cohort's bid shifted to CEG |
| Leaders | CEG (RSI 60.4, +8.7% this week, the group's biggest reversal); NVDA (51.0, thesis still marked intact); ASML (48.3, still `strong-up GC` structurally) |
| Laggards | BE (RSI 36.2, worst 30-day mover in the group at -43.3%); INTC (37.4, still -29.9% over 30 days); QCOM (37.5, -15.4% over 30 days) |
| Key insight | The broader sector-rotation signal (`regime-signals.json`) shows SMH -9.33% over 30 days, the single worst-performing sector ETF tracked — this cut's individual-name pullback lines up with that broader semis-into-defensives rotation, even as several names bounced this week |
What's Going On
CEG had the single biggest move in the group. RSI jumped from 46.3 to 60.4 on a +8.70% week (change7d per energy.json), the group's largest reversal by a wide margin — though the trend classifier still shows a death cross and the regime reads "downtrend," a mixed signal that hasn't fully confirmed a structural turn.
NVDA and AMD both climbed back above the RSI-50 line this week after last scan's pullback erased their prior breakouts entirely. NVDA moved 48.1 → 51.0 (+1.99% over the week), still carrying an "intact" thesis flag. AMD moved 46.3 → 50.0, up +5.28% over the week and still +50.07% over 3 months. AVGO followed the same path, 43.8 → 47.6, +2.99% over the week.
Not every name in the cohort recovered. BE continued its decline — RSI 39.0 → 36.2, -13.99% over the past week and now -43.32% over 30 days, the group's worst 30-day performer. GEV and TLN, the relatively cleanest names in the power cohort two scans ago, both cooled this week instead of holding: GEV 50.2 → 45.4 (-4.07% 7D), TLN 46.3 → 43.2 (-3.35% 7D) — the bid within the power trade appears to have rotated toward CEG rather than staying spread across the group.
The broader sector-rotation signal (regime-signals.json, sector_rs_rotation) shows defensives outperforming cyclicals by 2.5 percentage points over 30 days, with semiconductor proxy SMH the single worst-performing sector ETF tracked at -9.33% over 30 days — well behind even the weakest defensive sleeve. That context frames why most of this cut's individual names are still down on a 30-day basis even after this week's partial bounce.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-17)
- CEG had the group's biggest reversal. RSI 46.3 → 60.4, +8.70% over the past week — the largest single move in the cut, though the trend classifier still carries a death cross.
- NVDA climbed back above RSI 50. 48.1 → 51.0, +1.99% over the past week, thesis still marked "intact."
- AMD followed the same path. 46.3 → 50.0, +5.28% over the past week, still +50.07% over 3 months.
- AVGO recovered too. RSI 43.8 → 47.6, +2.99% over the past week.
- BE kept falling. RSI 39.0 → 36.2, -13.99% over the past week, -43.32% over 30 days — the group's worst 30-day performer, no reversal signal yet.
- GEV and TLN, last scan's relatively cleanest power names, both cooled. GEV: 50.2 → 45.4. TLN: 46.3 → 43.2.
- MRVL and ARM showed modest relief after multiple scans of decline. MRVL: 35.7 → 39.0. ARM: 38.4 → 38.0 (essentially flat). Both remain roughly -28% to -39% over 30 days.
- TSM, AMKR, LSCC, MXL, SWKS, AMAT all posted modest RSI improvement this week, moving up from the 39-44 band into the low-to-mid 40s.
- QCOM and TXN cooled slightly. QCOM: 38.5 → 37.5. TXN: 43.6 → 41.7.
- Universe unchanged. Same 20 tickers as the July 17 cut (16 from semis.json plus BE/CEG/GEV/TLN from energy.json) — no entrants or dropouts, same exclusion list.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions; under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought/extended. vs SMA20 is the gap to the 20-day average — a large negative number means a fast recent decline. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders; a high number means most of the move is unrealized profit that can get sold into any weakness. Trend pairs direction/strength with a cross signal — GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross), though a name can carry a golden cross flag while its short-term trend still reads weak-down, as several names here do. Check RSI and the VWAP premium together — a recovering RSI can still sit on top of a large VWAP premium with plenty of room to unwind.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | vs VWAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | $184.89 | 36.2 | -24.4% | -14.0% | -43.3% | -20.0% | -38.1% | weak-down GC | +24.6% |
| INTC | $92.32 | 37.4 | -16.7% | -2.9% | -29.9% | +11.9% | -29.6% | weak-down GC | +53.2% |
| QCOM | $166.97 | 37.5 | -7.2% | -2.8% | -15.4% | +12.6% | -34.2% | down GC | -4.3% |
| ARM | $260.01 | 38.0 | -13.8% | -2.7% | -27.6% | +10.7% | -37.5% | weak-down GC | +27.6% |
| MRVL | $194.23 | 39.0 | -15.4% | +2.9% | -29.8% | +18.2% | -36.6% | weak-down GC | +26.0% |
| ON | $86.81 | 39.9 | -5.2% | -0.6% | -25.0% | -11.8% | -33.2% | weak-down GC | +19.0% |
| TXN | $279.58 | 41.7 | -5.1% | -1.6% | -7.8% | +1.4% | -11.9% | weak-down GC | +28.0% |
| MXL | $71.59 | 41.9 | -21.4% | -0.4% | -15.8% | +18.7% | -28.9% | weak-down GC | +31.9% |
| SWKS | $60.21 | 42.3 | -2.0% | +1.5% | -15.7% | -4.6% | -33.5% | down GC | -8.2% |
| TSM | $403.41 | 42.3 | -5.9% | +1.3% | -8.5% | +0.5% | -13.2% | weak-down GC | +19.8% |
| AMKR | $64.96 | 42.4 | -7.1% | +3.2% | -21.5% | -16.7% | -32.4% | weak-down GC | +23.5% |
| TLN | $359.90 | 43.2 | -4.9% | -3.4% | -11.3% | -1.2% | -16.0% | down GC | -3.7% |
| LSCC | $128.42 | 44.0 | -5.2% | +2.6% | -10.8% | +4.6% | -12.0% | weak-down GC | +40.5% |
| AMAT | $536.25 | 45.4 | -9.0% | +1.2% | -9.0% | +28.8% | -23.9% | weak-down GC | +57.4% |
| GEV | $1,014.75 | 45.4 | -5.5% | -4.1% | -4.1% | -11.7% | -13.8% | weak-down GC | +30.7% |
| AVGO | $381.92 | 47.6 | +0.1% | +3.0% | -0.0% | -9.5% | -20.7% | weak-down GC | +7.6% |
| ASML | $1,757.09 | 48.3 | -2.3% | +0.5% | -0.3% | +20.8% | -9.9% | strong-up GC | +35.9% |
| AMD | $521.95 | 50.0 | -2.1% | +5.3% | +0.4% | +50.1% | -7.7% | strong-up GC | +102.0% |
| NVDA | $206.84 | 51.0 | +1.7% | +2.0% | +3.9% | -0.6% | -11.7% | weak-down GC | +9.4% |
| CEG | $274.35 | 60.4 | +7.7% | +8.7% | +2.4% | -12.4% | -33.2% | weak-up DC | -10.8% |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
BE (36.2), INTC (37.4), QCOM (37.5), ARM (38.0), MRVL (39.0), ON (39.9). Six names still in this band — BE is the only one still actively declining; the rest are roughly flat-to-modestly-improved.
RSI 40+ (everyone else)
- Still cooling (RSI 41-45): TXN, MXL, SWKS, TSM, AMKR, TLN, LSCC. Modest RSI improvement for most this week, none confirmed.
- Neutral / resolving (RSI 45-49): AMAT, GEV, AVGO, ASML. ASML remains the structurally cleanest name here, still
strong-up GCdespite the broader pullback. - Recovering (RSI 50+): AMD, NVDA, CEG. All three climbed back above 50 this week; CEG's move is the largest by far.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 7D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $206.84 | <$186.48 (support shelf) | 51.0 | +2.0% | Back above RSI 50 after last scan's full round-trip; thesis still marked intact |
| ASML | $1,757.09 | <$1,477.43 (support shelf) | 48.3 | +0.5% | Structurally the cleanest name left standing — still `strong-up GC` |
| TSM | $403.41 | <$344.76 (support shelf) | 42.3 | +1.3% | Core large-cap still in the cooling band; support shelf sits well below current price |
| CEG | $274.35 | <$270.43 (support shelf) | 60.4 | +8.7% | Biggest reversal in the group this week, though trend still shows a death cross — unconfirmed |
| BE | $184.89 | No support shelf identified | 36.2 | -14.0% | Still falling, worst 30-day performer in the group, no reversal signal |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA, ASML, AVGO, AMAT, AMD, CEG | Rebounding this week or structurally intact; not a fresh add given the broad prior pullback |
| 🔍 WATCH | TSM, TXN, LSCC, MXL, ON, AMKR, QCOM, ARM, SWKS, GEV, TLN, MRVL | Mixed — some bouncing modestly, some still cooling; wait for a clear signal either way |
| ❌ BROKEN / AVOID | BE, INTC | Still declining or deeply negative with no bounce this week |
What To Watch Next
- CEG just had the group's biggest reversal while its trend classifier still shows a death cross — does the structure confirm, or does this fade the way NVDA/AVGO's breakout did last scan?
- NVDA and AMD both climbed back above RSI 50 this week — is this the start of a real re-test of the prior breakout, or another round trip?
- BE never found the floor flagged for two scans running — does a reversal finally show up, or does the decline keep compounding toward new lows?
- GEV and TLN, the power cohort's steadiest names for multiple scans, both cooled this week as CEG took the bid instead — is capital rotating within the power trade, or is the whole cohort due for a reset?
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-24 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
- Regime context: regime-signals (
sector_rs_rotationgauge).
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.