NVDA Ecosystem Scan

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NVDA Ecosystem Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 32 rows · screens, not recommendations

Data as-of 2026-07-24 close (Friday settled close).

CEG posted the group's biggest reversal this week — RSI 46.3 → 60.4, price +8.70% over the past week — even as the trend classifier still carries a death cross. NVDA and AMD both climbed back above RSI 50 (48.1 → 51.0, 46.3 → 50.0) after last scan's full round-trip erased their breakouts, and AVGO followed the same path (43.8 → 47.6). Not everyone recovered: BE kept falling (39.0 → 36.2, now -43.3% over 30 days, the group's worst mover), and the two power names that held up best last scan — GEV and TLN — both cooled further (50.2 → 45.4, 46.3 → 43.2) as the group's bid rotated into CEG instead.

Source: semis.json + ai-infra.json + energy.json, deduped to the core NVDA-adjacent chip/AI-infra/power-demand names. Latest bar 2026-07-24 for every name in this cut. Note: AMZN/PLTR/TAC/P (ai-infra.json) and EOSE/NEE/FSLR/ENPH/TAC (energy.json) excluded as off-thesis for this ecosystem cut, same methodology as last scan. Prior scan: 2026-07-17-nvda-ecosystem.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Mixed, recovering — chip names broadly bounced (NVDA, AMD, AVGO all up) but BE, GEV, and TLN kept cooling as the power cohort's bid shifted to CEG
Leaders CEG (RSI 60.4, +8.7% this week, the group's biggest reversal); NVDA (51.0, thesis still marked intact); ASML (48.3, still `strong-up GC` structurally)
Laggards BE (RSI 36.2, worst 30-day mover in the group at -43.3%); INTC (37.4, still -29.9% over 30 days); QCOM (37.5, -15.4% over 30 days)
Key insight The broader sector-rotation signal (`regime-signals.json`) shows SMH -9.33% over 30 days, the single worst-performing sector ETF tracked — this cut's individual-name pullback lines up with that broader semis-into-defensives rotation, even as several names bounced this week

What's Going On

CEG had the single biggest move in the group. RSI jumped from 46.3 to 60.4 on a +8.70% week (change7d per energy.json), the group's largest reversal by a wide margin — though the trend classifier still shows a death cross and the regime reads "downtrend," a mixed signal that hasn't fully confirmed a structural turn.

NVDA and AMD both climbed back above the RSI-50 line this week after last scan's pullback erased their prior breakouts entirely. NVDA moved 48.1 → 51.0 (+1.99% over the week), still carrying an "intact" thesis flag. AMD moved 46.3 → 50.0, up +5.28% over the week and still +50.07% over 3 months. AVGO followed the same path, 43.8 → 47.6, +2.99% over the week.

Not every name in the cohort recovered. BE continued its decline — RSI 39.0 → 36.2, -13.99% over the past week and now -43.32% over 30 days, the group's worst 30-day performer. GEV and TLN, the relatively cleanest names in the power cohort two scans ago, both cooled this week instead of holding: GEV 50.2 → 45.4 (-4.07% 7D), TLN 46.3 → 43.2 (-3.35% 7D) — the bid within the power trade appears to have rotated toward CEG rather than staying spread across the group.

The broader sector-rotation signal (regime-signals.json, sector_rs_rotation) shows defensives outperforming cyclicals by 2.5 percentage points over 30 days, with semiconductor proxy SMH the single worst-performing sector ETF tracked at -9.33% over 30 days — well behind even the weakest defensive sleeve. That context frames why most of this cut's individual names are still down on a 30-day basis even after this week's partial bounce.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-17)

  • CEG had the group's biggest reversal. RSI 46.3 → 60.4, +8.70% over the past week — the largest single move in the cut, though the trend classifier still carries a death cross.
  • NVDA climbed back above RSI 50. 48.1 → 51.0, +1.99% over the past week, thesis still marked "intact."
  • AMD followed the same path. 46.3 → 50.0, +5.28% over the past week, still +50.07% over 3 months.
  • AVGO recovered too. RSI 43.8 → 47.6, +2.99% over the past week.
  • BE kept falling. RSI 39.0 → 36.2, -13.99% over the past week, -43.32% over 30 days — the group's worst 30-day performer, no reversal signal yet.
  • GEV and TLN, last scan's relatively cleanest power names, both cooled. GEV: 50.2 → 45.4. TLN: 46.3 → 43.2.
  • MRVL and ARM showed modest relief after multiple scans of decline. MRVL: 35.7 → 39.0. ARM: 38.4 → 38.0 (essentially flat). Both remain roughly -28% to -39% over 30 days.
  • TSM, AMKR, LSCC, MXL, SWKS, AMAT all posted modest RSI improvement this week, moving up from the 39-44 band into the low-to-mid 40s.
  • QCOM and TXN cooled slightly. QCOM: 38.5 → 37.5. TXN: 43.6 → 41.7.
  • Universe unchanged. Same 20 tickers as the July 17 cut (16 from semis.json plus BE/CEG/GEV/TLN from energy.json) — no entrants or dropouts, same exclusion list.

How To Read The Board

RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions; under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought/extended. vs SMA20 is the gap to the 20-day average — a large negative number means a fast recent decline. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders; a high number means most of the move is unrealized profit that can get sold into any weakness. Trend pairs direction/strength with a cross signal — GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross), though a name can carry a golden cross flag while its short-term trend still reads weak-down, as several names here do. Check RSI and the VWAP premium together — a recovering RSI can still sit on top of a large VWAP premium with plenty of room to unwind.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi% Trend vs VWAP
BE $184.89 36.2 -24.4% -14.0% -43.3% -20.0% -38.1% weak-down GC +24.6%
INTC $92.32 37.4 -16.7% -2.9% -29.9% +11.9% -29.6% weak-down GC +53.2%
QCOM $166.97 37.5 -7.2% -2.8% -15.4% +12.6% -34.2% down GC -4.3%
ARM $260.01 38.0 -13.8% -2.7% -27.6% +10.7% -37.5% weak-down GC +27.6%
MRVL $194.23 39.0 -15.4% +2.9% -29.8% +18.2% -36.6% weak-down GC +26.0%
ON $86.81 39.9 -5.2% -0.6% -25.0% -11.8% -33.2% weak-down GC +19.0%
TXN $279.58 41.7 -5.1% -1.6% -7.8% +1.4% -11.9% weak-down GC +28.0%
MXL $71.59 41.9 -21.4% -0.4% -15.8% +18.7% -28.9% weak-down GC +31.9%
SWKS $60.21 42.3 -2.0% +1.5% -15.7% -4.6% -33.5% down GC -8.2%
TSM $403.41 42.3 -5.9% +1.3% -8.5% +0.5% -13.2% weak-down GC +19.8%
AMKR $64.96 42.4 -7.1% +3.2% -21.5% -16.7% -32.4% weak-down GC +23.5%
TLN $359.90 43.2 -4.9% -3.4% -11.3% -1.2% -16.0% down GC -3.7%
LSCC $128.42 44.0 -5.2% +2.6% -10.8% +4.6% -12.0% weak-down GC +40.5%
AMAT $536.25 45.4 -9.0% +1.2% -9.0% +28.8% -23.9% weak-down GC +57.4%
GEV $1,014.75 45.4 -5.5% -4.1% -4.1% -11.7% -13.8% weak-down GC +30.7%
AVGO $381.92 47.6 +0.1% +3.0% -0.0% -9.5% -20.7% weak-down GC +7.6%
ASML $1,757.09 48.3 -2.3% +0.5% -0.3% +20.8% -9.9% strong-up GC +35.9%
AMD $521.95 50.0 -2.1% +5.3% +0.4% +50.1% -7.7% strong-up GC +102.0%
NVDA $206.84 51.0 +1.7% +2.0% +3.9% -0.6% -11.7% weak-down GC +9.4%
CEG $274.35 60.4 +7.7% +8.7% +2.4% -12.4% -33.2% weak-up DC -10.8%

Tier Analysis

Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)

None.

Oversold (RSI 25-40)

BE (36.2), INTC (37.4), QCOM (37.5), ARM (38.0), MRVL (39.0), ON (39.9). Six names still in this band — BE is the only one still actively declining; the rest are roughly flat-to-modestly-improved.

RSI 40+ (everyone else)

  • Still cooling (RSI 41-45): TXN, MXL, SWKS, TSM, AMKR, TLN, LSCC. Modest RSI improvement for most this week, none confirmed.
  • Neutral / resolving (RSI 45-49): AMAT, GEV, AVGO, ASML. ASML remains the structurally cleanest name here, still strong-up GC despite the broader pullback.
  • Recovering (RSI 50+): AMD, NVDA, CEG. All three climbed back above 50 this week; CEG's move is the largest by far.

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 7D% Setup
NVDA $206.84 <$186.48 (support shelf) 51.0 +2.0% Back above RSI 50 after last scan's full round-trip; thesis still marked intact
ASML $1,757.09 <$1,477.43 (support shelf) 48.3 +0.5% Structurally the cleanest name left standing — still `strong-up GC`
TSM $403.41 <$344.76 (support shelf) 42.3 +1.3% Core large-cap still in the cooling band; support shelf sits well below current price
CEG $274.35 <$270.43 (support shelf) 60.4 +8.7% Biggest reversal in the group this week, though trend still shows a death cross — unconfirmed
BE $184.89 No support shelf identified 36.2 -14.0% Still falling, worst 30-day performer in the group, no reversal signal

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD NVDA, ASML, AVGO, AMAT, AMD, CEG Rebounding this week or structurally intact; not a fresh add given the broad prior pullback
🔍 WATCH TSM, TXN, LSCC, MXL, ON, AMKR, QCOM, ARM, SWKS, GEV, TLN, MRVL Mixed — some bouncing modestly, some still cooling; wait for a clear signal either way
❌ BROKEN / AVOID BE, INTC Still declining or deeply negative with no bounce this week

What To Watch Next

  • CEG just had the group's biggest reversal while its trend classifier still shows a death cross — does the structure confirm, or does this fade the way NVDA/AVGO's breakout did last scan?
  • NVDA and AMD both climbed back above RSI 50 this week — is this the start of a real re-test of the prior breakout, or another round trip?
  • BE never found the floor flagged for two scans running — does a reversal finally show up, or does the decline keep compounding toward new lows?
  • GEV and TLN, the power cohort's steadiest names for multiple scans, both cooled this week as CEG took the bid instead — is capital rotating within the power trade, or is the whole cohort due for a reset?

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-24 close — semis, ai-infra, energy.
  • Regime context: regime-signals (sector_rs_rotation gauge).
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.