Regime: RISK-OFF ACCELERATING. VOO RSI 39 (collapsed from 58 in 5 days, below SMA). VIXY RSI 65 (spiked from 45 -- the 2/26 "cooling" was a head fake). GLD $468 (+21% 30D, RSI 52 = real institutional accumulation). TLT bid. Triple safety signal (VIXY + GLD + TLT rising simultaneously). 23 entry zones active (6 extreme, 9 oversold, 8 approaching). ASAN golden signal 4th scan but stale data trap cost all 3 strategies. Insiders selling in 41 stocks, buying only 3. Do NOT add risk aggressively.
Market Weather
| Indicator |
Level |
RSI |
vs SMA |
Signal |
Note |
| VOO (S&P 500) |
$625.50 |
~39 |
Below SMA |
🔴 Breaking down |
RSI collapsed 58->39 in 5 days. Watch $610-620 support. |
| QQQ (Nasdaq) |
$601.49 |
43 |
-0.9% below SMA ($607) |
🟡 Weakening |
Below SMA, RSI 57->43. Tech under pressure. |
| VIXY (VIX) |
$29.53 |
~65 |
Above SMA |
🔴 Fear surging |
Spiked from RSI 45 (02/26) to 65. Head fake confirmed. |
| GLD (Gold) |
$468.04 |
52 |
+0.7% above SMA ($465) |
🟢 Safe haven bid |
+21% 30D. RSI only 52 after massive run = structural, not speculative. |
| TLT (Bonds) |
$89.43 |
~61 |
Above SMA |
🟡 Defensive bid |
Pulled back from RSI 78 (02/26). Still defensive. |
| EEM (EM) |
$60.55 |
69 |
+2.7% above SMA ($59) |
🟢 Outperforming |
EM leading US equities. Data stale (02/09). China stimulus bid. |
One-liner: Risk-off accelerating -- VOO broke below SMA (RSI 58->39 in 5 days), VIXY surged RSI 45->65 (2/26 cooling was a head fake), GLD +21% 30D with RSI only 52 (institutional accumulation, not speculation). Triple safety signal active. Closest to full correction since Feb selloff began.
Sector Heat Map
Overbought (Don't Chase)
| Sector |
Leaders |
RSI Range |
Signal |
| Energy |
XLE (RSI 79), CEG (RSI 79), EQIX (87), DLR (83) |
79-87 |
🔴 EXTREME -- tariff/geopolitical bid. Trim at RSI > 80 |
| Dividend ETFs |
SCHD (90), VYM (87) |
87-90 |
🔴 EXTREME -- institutions hiding in safety |
| Data Center Power |
CEG (79), EQIX (87), DLR (83), GEV (63) |
63-87 |
🔴 Nuclear/power theme still extended |
| Gold / Safe Haven |
GLD (52 after +21% 30D) |
52 |
🟢 Structural accumulation, not overbought |
Oversold (Opportunity Zone)
| Sector |
Leaders |
RSI Range |
Signal |
| Consumer Health |
HIMS (4), LEGN (8) |
4-8 |
🔴 EXTREME CAPITULATION -- broken theses, avoid |
| Enterprise Software |
ASAN (15), ORCL (15), OKTA (28) |
15-28 |
🟢 Deep value, ASAN golden but failed in active strategies |
| AI Infrastructure |
AVGO (29), AMD (33), NVDA (41) |
29-41 |
🟢 Rare oversold for mega-caps. AVGO best entry. |
| Cybersecurity |
PANW (26), OKTA (28), ZS (~31) |
26-31 |
🟡 Sector-wide selloff creating entries |
| Home Improvement |
LOW (25), HD (31) |
25-31 |
🟢 NEW sector-wide entry -- paired play |
| Life Sciences |
ISRG (9*), IQV (17*), TMO (31) |
9-31 |
🟡 Deep value but insider selling on ISRG/TMO |
Neutral / Recovering
| Sector |
Status |
| Cloud ETFs |
WCLD/IGV RSI 45-48, above SMA. Sector floor forming but not confirmed. |
| SaaS Recovery |
CRM/NOW RSI 57 (bounced from 24-27). WDAY RSI 40 = last laggard. Window closing. |
| Big Tech |
MSFT RSI 44 (at SMA). GOOGL RSI 36 (still weak). AMZN RSI 31 (approaching re-entry). |
| Semiconductors |
NVDA RSI 41 (dropped from 63). Semi correction forming entry zones. |
Top 5 Opportunities
| Rank |
Ticker |
Price |
RSI |
Entry Zone |
Conviction |
Why |
| 1 |
AVGO |
$313.78 |
29 |
<$320 |
✅ Strong Buy |
Custom AI ASIC monopoly (Google TPU, Meta MTIA). $1.3T at rare oversold. No insider red flags vs peers. Fresh data 03/03. EXECUTED across all 3 strategies. |
| 2 |
LOW |
$257.77 |
25 |
<$262 |
✅ Strong Buy |
Home improvement leader. Fresh data 03/03. Sector-wide signal (pair with HD). Housing cyclical entry. |
| 3 |
OKTA |
$72.52 |
28 |
$68-$73 |
✅ Strong Buy |
Identity security leader. Fresh data. Zero-trust = non-negotiable spend. No insider red flags. |
| 4 |
DDOG |
$111.77 |
31 |
$108-$115 |
✅ Strong Buy |
Observability + AI monitoring. Fresh data. RSI 31 despite +7% 7D bounce = was deeply washed. |
| 5 |
ORCL |
$152.95* |
15 |
<$158 |
✅ Strong Buy |
Oracle Cloud hyper-scaling. RSI 15 extreme. DATA STALE (02/03) -- verify before acting. Best A+ bargain score. |
Skipped in RISK-OFF: LOW, OKTA, DDOG all strong setups but regime says hold fire until VIXY < 50. Only AVGO was executed as the highest-quality name.
Top Risks
Stop-Loss Proximity
| Stock |
Strategy |
Entry |
Stop |
Current |
Distance |
Status |
| TMO |
claude-trader |
$544.19 |
$462.56 (-15%) |
$507.81 |
9.8% above |
🟡 CLOSEST -- insiders selling -$308.9M |
| SNOW |
claude-trader |
$170.57 |
$144.98 (-15%) |
$165.51 |
14.2% above |
🟡 WATCH -- weakened from last update |
| ORCL |
claude-momentum |
$152.95 |
$137.66 (-10%) |
$149.01 |
8.2% above |
🟡 CLOSEST (momentum) -- weak bounce |
| HIMS |
yolo |
$16.30 |
$13.04 (-20%) |
$15.82 |
21.3% above |
🟡 WATCH -- thesis broken, RSI 4 |
Approaching Stop-Loss (bench-signals)
| Stock |
Entry |
Current |
Unrealized |
Status |
| AMD |
$216.25 |
$191.02 |
-11.7% |
Next stop-loss candidate (-15% = $183.81) |
| OKTA |
$81.64 |
$72.52 |
-11.2% |
Approaching -15% stop ($69.39) |
| ESTC |
$59.00 |
$52.65 |
-10.8% |
Collapsed from +2.9% this week |
Trim / Exit Candidates
| Stock |
RSI |
Action |
| CEG |
79 |
Don't add -- nuclear thesis priced in, wait for pullback |
| SCHD/VYM |
87-90 |
Do NOT chase -- extreme overbought dividend ETFs |
| XLE |
79 |
Energy surging on tariff -- trim at RSI > 80 |
Real Portfolio Alerts
| Stock |
Alert |
Status |
| BTC |
$34 stop (-15%) |
🚨 DATA STALE (02/02) -- was -13.9%, may have hit stop. CRITICAL. |
| NET |
$151 stop (-15%) |
🟢 $178.83 -- 18.4% above stop. Recovered. |
| AS |
Stop watch |
🟡 -12% 7D drop this week. Still 20.2% above stop. |
| VOO |
Support watch |
🟡 RSI 39, $610-620 key support. Losing that = deeper correction. |
Actions Log
Trades Executed 03/03
| Strategy |
Trade |
Ticker |
Price |
Shares |
Value |
Rationale |
| claude-trader |
SELL |
ASAN |
$7.26 |
200 |
$1,452 |
Stop-loss triggered (-26.7%). Stale data masked collapse. |
| claude-trader |
BUY |
AVGO |
$313.78 |
9 |
$2,824 |
RSI 29, AI ASIC monopoly, no insider red flags. |
| claude-momentum |
SELL |
ASAN |
$7.44 |
400 |
$2,976 |
Stop-loss hit (-24.9%). Golden signal failed in risk-off. |
| claude-momentum |
BUY |
AVGO |
$313.84 |
15 |
$4,708 |
RSI 29, best quality entry in AI infra. |
| yolo |
SELL |
ASAN |
$7.26 |
1009 |
$7,325 |
Stop-loss triggered (-26.7%). Max-sized golden signal failed. |
| yolo |
BUY |
AVGO |
$313.78 |
32 |
$10,041 |
RSI 29, $1.3T mega-cap at rare oversold. |
| bench-signals |
SELL |
MDB |
$252.68 |
3.0 |
$752 |
-24.8% stop (guidance cut blowup). |
| bench-signals |
SELL |
HIMS |
$15.82 |
53.6 |
$848 |
-15.2% stop (FDA risk + insider selling). |
| bench-signals |
BUY |
LOW |
$257.77 |
3.9 |
$1,000 |
RSI 25, home improvement oversold. |
| bench-signals |
BUY |
HD |
$366.57 |
2.7 |
$1,000 |
RSI 31, sector pair play. |
| bench-signals |
BUY |
GIS |
$44.85 |
22.3 |
$1,000 |
RSI 30, defensive dividend. |
New Entry Zones (vs 02/26)
| Ticker |
RSI |
Entry Zone |
Change |
| AVGO |
29 |
<$320 |
NEW -- AI ASIC monopoly, fresh data |
| LOW |
25 |
<$262 |
NEW -- home improvement leader, fresh data |
| HD |
31 |
<$372 |
NEW -- sector pair with LOW |
| OKTA |
28 |
$68-$73 |
NEW -- identity security, fresh data |
| DDOG |
31 |
$108-$115 |
NEW -- observability platform, fresh data |
| ASML |
~43 |
$1,320-$1,380 |
NEW -- EUV monopoly approaching zone |
| V |
~40 |
$308-$318 |
NEW -- payment rail duopoly approaching |
| MRVL |
~38 |
$74-$78 |
NEW -- custom ASIC for hyperscalers |
Stop-Loss Events 03/03
| Stock |
Strategy |
Entry |
Exit |
Loss |
Reason |
| ASAN |
claude-trader |
$9.91 |
$7.26 |
-26.7% |
Stale data (02/02). -32% 30D collapse. |
| ASAN |
claude-momentum |
$9.91 |
$7.44 |
-24.9% |
Stop at $8.92 breached, enforced late. |
| ASAN |
yolo |
$9.91 |
$7.26 |
-26.7% |
Max-sized golden signal failed in risk-off. |
| MDB |
bench-signals |
$336.00 |
$252.68 |
-24.8% |
Guidance cut blew through -15% stop. |
| HIMS |
bench-signals |
$18.66 |
$15.82 |
-15.2% |
FDA risk + insider selling -$184M. |
Portfolio Pulse
Leaderboard
| Rank |
Strategy |
Return |
Value |
Cash |
Positions |
Trades Today |
Trend |
| 1 |
claude-trader |
+2.15% |
$102,152 |
$62,687 (61%) |
18 |
2 (sold ASAN, bought AVGO) |
Down (was +2.27%) |
| 2 |
bench-signals |
-1.0% |
~$47,520 |
-- |
46 signals |
5 (sold MDB/HIMS, bought LOW/HD/GIS) |
Down (was -0.1%) |
| 3 |
claude-momentum |
-1.15% |
$98,852 |
$71,640 (72%) |
8 |
2 (sold ASAN, bought AVGO) |
Down (was -0.60%) |
| 4 |
yolo |
-1.80% |
$98,198 |
$51,410 (52%) |
7 |
2 (sold ASAN, bought AVGO) |
Down (was +0.69%) |
Overall: 1 of 4 positive (was 2 of 4). All strategies declined. Claude-trader still leads at +2.15% but lost ground. YOLO hit hardest by ASAN's max-sized loss (-$2,674). All 3 active strategies sold ASAN (stop-loss) and bought AVGO (replacement). Bench-signals closed 2 more losses (MDB, HIMS) and added 3 defensive/cyclical signals. ASAN was the story of the week -- golden signal failed across all portfolios, total ASAN losses: -$4,192 combined.
claude-trader Positions (18) -- $102,152 (+2.15%)
| Stock |
Shares |
Entry |
Current |
P&L |
% |
Status |
| INTU |
10 |
$389.98 |
$433.35 |
+$434 |
+11.1% |
Leader -- post-earnings gap |
| CRSP |
40 |
$51.31 |
$58.04 |
+$269 |
+13.1% |
Gene editing thesis |
| NOW |
19 |
$102.63 |
$107.57* |
+$94 |
+4.8% |
Stale 02/26 |
| WDAY |
21 |
$138.57 |
$143.61 |
+$106 |
+3.6% |
SaaS recovery |
| MSFT |
5 |
$390.00 |
$403.95 |
+$70 |
+3.6% |
At SMA |
| CRM |
10 |
$193.75 |
$198.15* |
+$44 |
+2.3% |
Stale 02/26 |
| WCLD |
70 |
$27.88 |
$28.27 |
+$27 |
+1.4% |
|
| AVGO |
9 |
$313.78 |
$313.78 |
$0 |
0.0% |
NEW |
| NFLX |
24 |
$80.78 |
$80.78* |
$0 |
0.0% |
Stale 02/03 |
| ISRG |
4 |
$476.32 |
$476.32* |
$0 |
0.0% |
Stale 02/05 |
| ADBE |
7 |
$269.39 |
$269.39* |
$0 |
0.0% |
Stale 02/05 |
| ORCL |
13 |
$152.95 |
$152.95* |
$0 |
0.0% |
Stale 02/03 |
| GOOGL |
6 |
$305.72 |
$303.53 |
-$13 |
-0.7% |
|
| AMZN |
9 |
$210.10 |
$208.73 |
-$12 |
-0.7% |
|
| IGV |
25 |
$85.02 |
$84.07 |
-$24 |
-1.1% |
|
| LULU |
11 |
$177.34 |
$174.27 |
-$34 |
-1.7% |
|
| SNOW |
12 |
$170.57 |
$165.51 |
-$61 |
-3.0% |
Weakening |
| TMO |
3 |
$544.19 |
$507.81 |
-$109 |
-6.7% |
9.8% above stop |
claude-momentum Positions (8) -- $98,852 (-1.15%)
| Stock |
Shares |
Entry |
Current |
P&L |
% |
Status |
| INTU |
8 |
$392.33 |
$433.35 |
+$328 |
+10.5% |
Approaching +20% target |
| SNOW |
19 |
$156.71 |
$165.79 |
+$173 |
+5.8% |
|
| AMZN |
10 |
$198.79 |
$208.73 |
+$99 |
+5.0% |
|
| WDAY |
36 |
$138.57 |
$143.61 |
+$181 |
+3.6% |
|
| CRM |
10 |
$189.97 |
$196.05 |
+$61 |
+3.2% |
|
| IGV |
35 |
$82.77 |
$84.12 |
+$47 |
+1.6% |
|
| AVGO |
15 |
$313.84 |
$313.84 |
$0 |
0.0% |
NEW |
| ORCL |
25 |
$152.95 |
$149.01 |
-$99 |
-2.6% |
8.2% above stop |
yolo Positions (7) -- $98,198 (-1.80%)
| Stock |
Shares |
Entry |
Current |
P&L |
% |
Status |
| CRSP |
100 |
$51.31 |
$58.04 |
+$673 |
+13.1% |
Best performer |
| WDAY |
72 |
$138.57 |
$143.61 |
+$363 |
+3.6% |
SaaS recovery |
| ARKK |
67 |
$74.36 |
$74.36* |
$0 |
0.0% |
Stale 02/02 |
| ORCL |
50 |
$152.95 |
$152.95* |
$0 |
0.0% |
Stale 02/03 |
| AVGO |
32 |
$313.78 |
$313.78 |
$0 |
0.0% |
NEW |
| TQQQ |
100 |
$48.78 |
$48.10 |
-$68 |
-1.4% |
Leverage drag |
| HIMS |
200 |
$16.30 |
$15.82 |
-$96 |
-2.9% |
Broken thesis |
bench-signals Top Movers (of 46 open signals)
Closed: MDB -24.8% (guidance cut), HIMS -15.2% (FDA risk). 3 new: LOW, HD, GIS.
IMMINENT WIN: CEG at +19.9% -- one tick from +20% target. Would be first closed winner.
Key Numbers
| Metric |
Value |
Context |
| Most Oversold |
HIMS RSI 4 |
Consumer health, insiders selling -$184M. AVOID. |
| 2nd Most Oversold |
LEGN RSI 8 |
Biotech, thesis broken, 3 weeks at RSI < 10. AVOID. |
| Golden Signal |
ASAN RSI 15 (4th scan) |
$8.3M insider buying. Failed in all 3 strategies. |
| Best New Entry |
AVGO RSI 29 |
Executed. AI ASIC monopoly at rare oversold. |
| Most Overbought |
SCHD RSI 90 |
Dividend ETF, institutional hiding |
| Gold |
$468.04 (+21% 30D) |
RSI only 52 = structural accumulation, not speculation |
| VIXY |
RSI ~65 (was 45) |
Head fake confirmed. Fear accelerating. |
| VOO |
$625.50 (RSI ~39) |
Below SMA. Watch $610-620 support. |
| Entry Zones Active |
23 |
Up from 18 (8 new entries, some bounced out) |
| Signals (bench) |
49 total (46 open, 3 closed) |
+3 new, 2 closed (MDB, HIMS). 0 wins, 3 losses. |
| Strategies Positive |
1 of 4 |
Was 2 of 4. Only claude-trader in green. |
| Best Strategy |
claude-trader +2.15% |
Slipped from +2.27% high water mark |
| CEG (best signal) |
+19.9% |
One tick from first WIN at +20% |
| ASAN (biggest lesson) |
-$4,192 combined losses |
Golden signal failed across all strategies |
| Insider Posture |
41 selling, 3 buying |
Broadest bearish posture in months |
What Changed (03/03 vs 02/26)
VIXY head fake confirmed: RSI 45 -> 65 in 5 days. The 02/26 "cooling" was NOT an all-clear. VOO simultaneously collapsed RSI 58->39. Risk-off regime is ACCELERATING, not resolving. Triple safety signal now active (VIXY + GLD + TLT all rising). Market regime downgraded from "stabilizing" to "risk-off accelerating."
ASAN golden signal failed across all 3 strategies, costing -$4,192 total. Claude-trader -$530 (200 shares), momentum -$988 (400 shares), YOLO -$2,674 (1009 shares). Stale data (last OHLC update 02/02) masked a -32% 30D collapse. The 4th-consecutive golden insider signal could not overcome macro risk-off. Lesson: stale data + rising VIXY = do not enter, regardless of signal quality.
All 3 strategies rotated ASAN -> AVGO. Replaced speculative small-cap ($1.4B) with mega-cap AI infrastructure ($1.3T). AVGO at RSI 29 with no insider red flags -- the quality upgrade pattern. Total AVGO deployment: $17,573 (9 + 15 + 32 shares).
INTU post-earnings gap to +11.1% -- biggest winner across all portfolios. Recovered from $380 (02/26) to $433.35. Tax season thesis validated. Approaching +20% profit target at $470.80 (momentum strategy). Do not chase.
Bench-signals closed 2 more stops: MDB -24.8%, HIMS -15.2%. MDB blew through -15% stop on guidance cut -- the worst-case for oversold entries. HIMS confirmed broken thesis. Total realized losses now -$600 on 3 signals. But CEG at +19.9% is ONE TICK from first win.
8 new entry zones identified: AVGO (RSI 29, executed), LOW (RSI 25), HD (RSI 31), OKTA (RSI 28), DDOG (RSI 31), ASML (~43), V (~40), MRVL (~38). Home improvement (LOW + HD) is a new sector-wide signal. Semi correction deepening (NVDA 63->41, AMD 57->33).
Portfolio leaderboard compressed. Claude-trader +2.15% still leads but slipped. All others negative. YOLO took the biggest hit (-1.80%) from max-sized ASAN loss. Only 1 of 4 strategies positive (was 2 of 4). Overall mood: defensive, cash-heavy, waiting for VIXY < 50.
Generated 2026-03-03. See: scans/ for detail, actions/ for trades, deep-dives/ for research. Previous status archived to _archive/2026-02-26-status.md.
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/trend figures): desk pre-computed watchlist summaries as of the artifact date — *.