Market Weather
| Indicator |
Value |
RSI |
Signal |
| VOO (S&P) |
$603.99 |
37 |
🟡 Weak — approaching oversold |
| VIXY (Vol) |
$34.44 |
61 |
⚠️ Elevated — fear but not panic |
| GLD (Gold) |
$405.63 |
29 |
🔴 CRASHING — unusual in risk-off |
| TLT (Bonds) |
$85.84 |
36 |
🟡 Not providing safety |
| EEM (EM) |
$55.58 |
36 |
🟡 Weak — dollar squeeze |
| XLE (Energy) |
$59.63 |
77 |
🟢 ONLY sector working |
| UUP (Dollar) |
$27.67 |
60 |
🟢 Strong — THE safe haven |
Regime: STAGFLATIONARY — Oil surging, gold crashing, equities weak, dollar strong. Not a normal risk-off.
Top 5 Opportunities
| Rank |
Stock |
RSI |
Price |
Thesis |
| 1 |
ECL |
18 |
$254.95 |
Quality industrial at historic capitulation |
| 2 |
MSFT 🏆 |
29 |
$374.53 |
Golden signal: RSI <30 + insider buying |
| 3 |
INDA |
19 |
$46.60 |
India ETF at extreme oversold — rare |
| 4 |
ITB |
21 |
$87.87 |
Housing capitulation — mean reversion |
| 5 |
ABBV |
28 |
$204.91 |
Dividend aristocrat at deep oversold |
Top Risks
| Risk |
Details |
| Oil overbought cluster |
9 names RSI >70 (XOP 79, CVX 78, EOG 77). Correction imminent? |
| Gold crash |
GLD -14.5% 30D. Forced liquidation? Margin calls? |
| MDT near stop |
$86.85 vs $83 stop (4.4% away). Holdings risk. |
| CRM below entry |
$184.50 vs $190.96 entry. New concern. |
| Housing freefall |
ITB/XHB -20% 30D, RSI 21-22. No bottom in sight. |
Portfolio Pulse
Paper Trade Leaderboard
| Strategy |
Value |
Return |
Positions |
Today's Trades |
| claude-momentum |
$100,107 |
+0.11% |
6 |
+MSFT $5K, +ECL $5K |
| yolo |
$100,100 |
+0.10% |
3 |
+MSFT $10K |
| claude-trader |
$99,939 |
-0.06% |
5 |
+MSFT $3K, +ECL $2K |
| bench-signals |
~$19,914 |
n/a |
20 |
+MSFT, +ECL, +BA, +INDA, +XLB |
Key Positions
- TMO best unrealized: +6.0% (claude-momentum)
- SYK worst: -2.4% across all strategies
- XHB bench-signals worst: -5.0%
- ABBV/LLY flat across all — just entered 03/20
What Changed vs 2026-03-20
- 🔴 Gold crashed: GLD RSI 31→29, -12% in one week. Unprecedented in risk-off.
- 🔴 MSFT entered oversold: RSI 32→29. Best quality at best price in months.
- 🟢 AS recovered from below stop: $30.71 stop was hit on 3/20, now $33.06. Crisis averted.
- 🟢 HD/LOW bounced from extremes: RSI 22-24 → 35-36. Off capitulation lows.
- 🔴 9 new entry zones: ECL (18), MLM (24), VMC (28), SYK (29), MSFT (29), SAP (28), BMRN (29)
- 🟠 Oil cluster most overbought in market: 9 names RSI >70. Trim risk.
- 🆕 ASML new monster: +35% vs SMA200, quality litho monopoly enters monster territory.
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/trend figures): desk pre-computed watchlist summaries as of the artifact date — *.