MARKET CONTEXT: SPY $679.34 (+0.6% 30D, RSI 60, strong-up) | QQQ $610.63 (RSI 60, strong-up) | VOO $624.65 (RSI 68)
KEY THEME: SaaS capitulation meets mega-cap/commodity rally. 10+ cloud SaaS names at RSI < 30 simultaneously while memory, energy, and select mega-caps surge to new highs. The most violent sector rotation in this tracking period.
Entry Zones (IN ZONE NOW)
EXTREME OVERSOLD (RSI < 20) - Capitulation Territory
None at this level today.
OVERSOLD (RSI 20-30) - Strong Entry Zone
| Stock |
Current |
Zone |
RSI |
30D Chg |
Source |
Action |
Notes |
| SNOW |
$121.61 |
$120-$135 |
21.2 |
-30.6% |
cloud-saas |
Watch |
NEW. Extreme capitulation. -42.8% vs SMA200. Falling knife — need RSI stabilization. |
| NOW |
$82.40 |
$80-$100 |
22.0 |
-29.3% |
cloud-saas |
Watch |
NEW. -47.9% vs SMA200. ServiceNow at multi-year low vs SMA200. |
| NKE |
$42.99 |
$40-$45 |
23.1 |
-23.3% |
consumer |
Watch |
-34.2% vs SMA200. Capitulation continues from RSI 20 last week. |
| INTU |
$343.68 |
$340-$380 |
24.5 |
-24.1% |
cloud-saas |
Watch |
NEW. -44.0% vs SMA200. Intuit at structural low. |
| HUBS |
$190.44 |
$190-$220 |
25.4 |
-29.3% |
cloud-saas |
Watch |
NEW. -52.1% vs SMA200. HubSpot destroyed. |
| TEAM |
$57.58 |
$55-$70 |
26.0 |
-26.2% |
cloud-saas |
Watch |
NEW. -60.1% vs SMA200. Atlassian worst SaaS decline. |
| ZS |
$116.68 |
$115-$135 |
26.2 |
-25.5% |
cloud-saas |
Watch |
NEW. -52.7% vs SMA200. Cybersecurity collapsing with SaaS. |
| ESTC |
$42.48 |
$40-$50 |
26.4 |
-18.1% |
web-cloud |
Watch |
NEW. -43.5% vs SMA200. Elastic broken. |
| VZ |
$46.17 |
$44-$48 |
27.2 |
-4.7% |
defensive |
Watch |
NEW. Golden cross + 8.1% vs SMA200. Telecom pullback. Quality at discount. |
| CRM |
$164.53 |
$160-$175 |
27.3 |
-15.4% |
cloud-saas, holdings |
Alert |
HELD POSITION. Near $162 stop. -29.7% vs SMA200. |
| WDAY |
$111.92 |
$110-$125 |
27.1 |
-21.5% |
cloud-saas |
Watch |
NEW. -45.2% vs SMA200. Workday collapsed. |
| VEEV |
— |
— |
~22 |
— |
scan signal |
Watch |
Mentioned in scan signals. Extreme oversold. |
APPROACHING OVERSOLD (RSI 30-40) - Watch Closely
| Stock |
Current |
Zone |
RSI |
30D Chg |
Source |
Action |
Notes |
| ADBE |
$225.73 |
$220-$240 |
29.2 |
-18.0% |
cloud-saas |
Watch |
-30.4% vs SMA200. Adobe approaching extreme. |
| MDB |
$222.24 |
$215-$250 |
30.0 |
-17.9% |
web-cloud |
Watch |
-29.1% vs SMA200. MongoDB broken. |
| OKTA |
$63.86 |
$60-$75 |
30.5 |
-19.8% |
cloud-saas |
Watch |
-27.2% vs SMA200. Collapsed from SMA20. |
| ENPH |
$31.38 |
$28-$35 |
32.1 |
-28.0% |
energy |
Watch |
Solar/storage crashed. -14.9% vs SMA200. |
| DDOG |
$103.04 |
$100-$115 |
32.0 |
-16.3% |
web-cloud |
Watch |
-25.8% vs SMA200. |
| T |
$26.42 |
$25-$27 |
32.8 |
-4.7% |
defensive |
Watch |
Golden cross. -0.4% vs SMA200. AT&T pullback. |
| PLTR |
$128.01 |
$125-$140 |
33.8 |
-15.3% |
ai-infra, holdings |
Watch |
HELD POSITION. -22.0% vs SMA200. Death cross. |
| CRSP |
$37.38 |
$35-$45 |
33.3 |
-25.8% |
biotech |
Watch |
Gene editing broken. -43.1% vs SMA200. |
| NET |
$169.96 |
$165-$180 |
33.9 |
-18.1% |
web-cloud, holdings |
Watch |
HELD POSITION. -15.9% vs SMA200. Crashed from $212. |
| ISRG |
$450.02 |
$440-$465 |
35.0 |
-7.4% |
healthcare |
Watch |
-10.9% vs SMA200. Surgical robotics weakening. |
| TSLA |
$343.96 |
$330-$360 |
34.4 |
-13.9% |
mag7 |
Watch |
Death cross. -13.4% vs SMA200. |
| AKAM |
$95.36 |
$92-$105 |
34.7 |
-8.8% |
web-cloud |
Watch |
Sharp reversal from RSI 64. Golden cross intact. |
| SHOP |
$110.33 |
$108-$118 |
38.2 |
-14.7% |
retail, holdings |
Watch |
HELD POSITION. -21.9% vs SMA200. |
| MSFT |
$370.75 |
$360-$380 |
38.2 |
-8.6% |
mag7 |
Watch |
-21.5% vs SMA200. Deep structural damage. Death cross. |
| MCD |
$306.10 |
$295-$310 |
39.9 |
-6.7% |
retail |
Watch |
Golden cross. 0.0% vs SMA200. Quality at oversold. |
Price Alerts (Waiting for Entry)
| Stock |
Alert |
Entry Zone |
Source |
Set Date |
Status |
| NVDA |
RSI 50+ confirmed |
$180-$190 |
ai-infra |
04/10 |
Active — RSI 61, above zone |
| GOOGL |
Hold above SMA50 ($308) |
$300-$310 |
mag7 |
04/10 |
Active — at $317 |
| RKLB |
RSI 50 reclaim |
$65-$68 |
space |
04/10 |
Active — RSI 49, near trigger |
| MU |
SMA20 pullback |
$397 area |
memory |
04/10 |
Active — at $415, wait for dip |
| GEV |
SMA20 pullback |
$884 area |
energy |
04/10 |
Active — at $990, wait for dip |
| ASML |
SMA20 pullback |
$1,358 area |
ai-infra |
04/10 |
Active — at $1,482, wait for dip |
Exit Alerts (Holdings)
| Stock |
Alert |
Type |
Entry |
Current |
P&L |
Set Date |
Status |
| CRM |
$162 stop |
Stop-loss |
$190.96 |
$164.53 |
-13.8% |
04/10 |
CRITICAL — $2.53 above stop |
| NET |
$151 stop |
Stop-loss |
$177.38 |
$169.96 |
-4.2% |
01/26 |
Watch — 12.6% above stop |
| PLTR |
$119 stop |
Stop-loss |
$140.04 |
$128.01 |
-8.6% |
04/10 |
Watch — 7.6% above stop |
| MDT |
$83 stop |
Stop-loss |
$97.49 |
$87.35 |
-10.4% |
03/20 |
Watch — 5.2% above stop |
| AS |
$30.71 stop |
Stop-loss |
$36.13 |
$35.42 |
-2.0% |
03/03 |
OK — 15.3% above stop |
| AMZN |
RSI 75 alert |
Take profit |
$204.53 |
$238.15 |
+16.4% |
04/10 |
NEW — RSI 71 approaching overbought |
Sector Rotation Signals
| Signal |
Trigger |
What It Means |
Status |
| SaaS capitulation |
10+ names RSI < 30 |
Sector-wide selling pressure. Unprecedented number of quality names in extreme oversold simultaneously. |
Active |
| Memory monster run |
MU/STX/WDC all strong-up, +66-107% vs SMA200 |
AI HBM supercycle fully priced. Structural winners. |
Active |
| Mega-cap bifurcation |
AMZN RSI 71 vs MSFT RSI 38 |
Even within Mag7, rotation is violent. Cloud revenue > AI capex in market's view. |
Active |
| Defensive retail leadership |
COST/TGT/TJX/WMT all strong-up near 52wk highs |
Consumer staples/value outperforming discretionary. Defensive rotation. |
Active |
| Crypto bounce |
BTC RSI 60, RIOT +23.4% 7D |
First meaningful crypto recovery signal in months. Mining equities leading. |
Emerging |
Pending Research Actions
| Action |
Source |
Priority |
Status |
| Set CRM stop-loss alert at $162 in broker |
Holdings — RSI 27, $2.53 from stop |
HIGH |
Todo |
| Evaluate NET position — sell or hold through? |
Holdings — crashed from +19% to -4% |
HIGH |
Todo |
| Review AMZN partial profit-taking at RSI 71 |
Holdings — approaching overbought |
MEDIUM |
Todo |
| Deep dive on SaaS capitulation — is this the bottom? |
10+ names RSI < 30 |
MEDIUM |
Todo |
| Monitor PLTR — approaching $119 stop zone |
Holdings — RSI 34, $128 |
MEDIUM |
Todo |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| 10+ quality SaaS names simultaneously RSI < 30 |
Historic capitulation event. When this many quality names hit extreme oversold together, the recovery (when it comes) tends to be violent. But timing is impossible. |
| NET crashed from +19.3% to -4.2% on position in one week |
The most dramatic position reversal in portfolio history. Cloud/SaaS selloff is indiscriminate. |
| AMZN +10.1% 7D while CRM -8.2% 7D |
The market is differentiating between cloud infrastructure (AMZN/AWS) and cloud SaaS applications (CRM/NOW/SNOW). Infrastructure wins. |
| Memory sector +66-107% vs SMA200 |
MU, STX, WDC in the strongest trend of any sector. AI HBM is THE hardware trade. |
| CRM $2.53 above $162 stop |
This needs an immediate broker alert. Any further -1.5% decline triggers the stop. |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/trend figures): desk pre-computed watchlist summaries as of the artifact date — *.