Article published May 6, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
Summary
Direct application of a lesson from the recent WAT deep dive: "future fundamentals-leading-price setups must check the upcoming-earnings calendar before deep-diving — a 24-hour catalyst can collapse a 30-day price gap." Ran the check retroactively on the 28 names from this morning's data-plane audit. Result: 8 of the 12 monsters print earnings in the next 14 days, four of them today/tomorrow. Critical framing distinction: WAT was at RSI 35 / -19.9% 3m pre-print (price hadn't caught up — "fundamentals leading"), so the print catalyzed a +13.5% rebound. These names are at RSI 65-82 / +30-275% 3m — price has already run, the print has to justify the move rather than reward a recovery. Asymmetric-DOWN, not up.
Cohort with imminent prints
Sorted by days-to-print. Pre-print state captured 2026-05-06.
| Ticker | Days | Price | 3m | 30d | RSI | 52wHi | Watchlist | Setup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOSL | 0 | 2026-05-06 | $49.33 | +135% | +114% | 78.2 | -1.3% | ai-power | Extreme momentum into print; perspective-named OpenVReg co-lead. Asymmetric DOWN — any whisper of weakness fills the gap fast. |
| IFNNY | 0 | 2026-05-06 | $70.12 | +42% | +55% | 75.1 | -3.1% | ai-power | Major SiC/GaN incumbent (Infineon ADR). Less extreme than AOSL but still hot. |
| ATZ.TO | 1 | 2026-05-07 | $148.09 | +32% | +29% | 68.1 | -0.6% | war-sensitivity | Aritzia (Canadian retail). Less perspective-aligned with us. |
| POWI | 1 | 2026-05-07 | $78.23 | +72% | +52% | 76.1 | -0.9% | ai-power | The IP/topology rentier (1,250V GaN). Perspective-named asymmetric play on 800V direct-conversion. Most thesis-relevant of the imminent prints. |
| VPG | 6 | 2026-05-12 | $63.57 | +15% | +36% | 72.4 | -3.9% | humanoid-robotics | Vishay Precision (small-cap). Lowest 3m run of the imminent set. |
| ALMU | 7 | 2026-05-13 | $28.42 | +91% | +143% | 72.0 | -1.1% | supply-chain-traces | Almonty Industries — the binary-outcome deferred deep-dive. Print could resolve "real QD-laser-on-silicon supplier vs vapor" thesis. User-decision territory. |
| WYFI | 9 | 2026-05-15 | $21.43 | +8% | +68% | 75.1 | -47.4% | ai-power | Lower 3m run despite RSI 75; more recent inflection. Still -47% from 52w high so the move is from a low base. |
| SIVEF | 14 | 2026-05-20 | $5.51 | +273% | +430% | 81.6 | -13.9% | optical-supply-chain | Most extreme RSI in the cohort. Wafer-supplier optical-supercycle leg. Largest asymmetric-DOWN risk if print disappoints. |
Cohort with later prints (>14 days, recorded but not time-sensitive)
| Ticker | Days | Setup | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BB | 50 | 2026-06-25 | Cybersec, +73% 3m / RSI 79. Print is far enough out that thesis can develop. |
| CLF | 75 | 2026-07-20 | DPA-grid cohort. Cyclical name, less momentum-driven. |
| COF | 76 | 2026-07-21 | Financials, mainline. |
| LPK.DE | 78 | 2026-07-23 | Optical-supercycle (LPKF Laser). +222% 3m / RSI 81 — also extreme but print is 2.5 months out. |
| SEI | 78 | 2026-07-23 | ai-power. Solaris Energy. |
| TECK | 78 | 2026-07-23 | macro-commodities. Copper miner. |
| MPWR | 85 | 2026-07-30 | The Vera Rubin VRM share leader. ~70% socket share per perspective. Mid-cycle for an earnings catalyst. |
| ICHR | 90 | 2026-08-04 | Semi consumables, +113% 3m / RSI 67. |
What asymmetric-DOWN means for our process
- No autonomous positioning decisions. Each of these is the inverse of a "pre-print accumulation" trade — the question is whether to trim existing exposure, hedge, or wait. Positioning is user-decision.
- Pre-print state recorded. This file's table captures price/3m/RSI/from-52wHi as of 2026-05-06. After each print, comparing post-print state will be a clean exercise — shows whether the "asymmetric-DOWN" framing was right or wrong on a per-name basis.
- Cohort post-print update is the deliverable. After each name prints, append a row to a follow-up section with: actual reaction (+/-%), beat/miss, whether RSI normalization happened or further pump-and-dump played out. Builds the dataset for "what does asymmetric-DOWN actually mean empirically?"
- WAT was the inverse case study. Same setup, opposite price-state (RSI 35 not 78). It rewarded the inflection. The asymmetric-UP cohort archetype has a name now — call it "WAT-shape." The asymmetric-DOWN cohort archetype is the AOSL-shape.
Generalizable lesson — two pre-print archetypes
- WAT-shape (asymmetric-UP): RSI <40, price below SMA20/50, recent pullback, fundamentals turning per leading composite. Print likely catalyzes a re-rating. Pre-print accumulation is the trade IF positioning conviction is high.
- AOSL-shape (asymmetric-DOWN): RSI >70, price near 52w high, large 3m run, momentum-driven. Print needs to justify multiples. Any miss collapses the gap fast. Pre-print position is the trade — to trim or hedge, not to add.
The audit pattern that surfaced today: whenever you find a cohort running, check what fraction is in earnings season. A cohort with 50%+ in next 14 days is an asymmetric-DOWN cluster — coordinated reversal risk. A cohort with 0% in next 14 days has more time to develop. The 12 monsters split 50/50: 6 in next 14 days (AOSL/IFNNY/POWI/VPG/ALMU/WYFI), 6 with prints 50-90 days out.
What this is NOT
- A "sell signal" on the cohort. The fundamentals validating thesis still holds; cohort split (pure-plays vs diversified) still holds. This is a catalyst-aware sequencing note, not a thesis reversal.
- A short call. Against an AOSL-shape setup, the available moves are trim into strength or don't add at the high — not a short thesis.
- A blanket "wait until prints land" rule. Some names (POWI, perspective-relevant; ALMU, binary outcome) might warrant explicit user-decision pre-print. Most don't.
Post-print response plan — existing deep-dives already match the framing
After surfacing this watch list, cross-checked the existing 2026-05-01 cohort deep-dives (AOSL/IFNNY/MPWR/NVTS/POWI/VICR/BESI). They were ALREADY counseling the asymmetric-DOWN discipline implicitly — every one of them set entry zones below current price last week, with explicit pullback-conditional sizing. The 2026-05-01 deep-dives don't need updating; they need reading before any post-print add decision.
What this means tactically: if the print disappoints and drops a name into its existing entry zone, the 2026-05-01 deep-dive's starter-position guide becomes live. If the print pushes the name further from its entry zone, the deep-dive's "wait" call holds. Either way, the response is pre-decided.
| Ticker | Today | 2026-05-01 entry zone | Pullback needed | Post-print response trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOSL | $49.33 | $34-37 | -25 to -31% | Print + crash to $37 with RSI <55 → 25% of 1-2% target = 0.25-0.5% starter (per existing deep-dive) |
| IFNNY | $70.12 | $56-60 | -14 to -20% | Pullback to SMA20 ($56) → half-position; second half on RSI <65 holding >$60 |
| MPWR | $1,652 | $1,505-1,580 | -4 to -9% | Closest to its entry zone — a single-digit print disappointment puts it in range. 1/3 of 2-3% target on RSI <55. Better entry <$1,300 on broader semis pullback. |
| NVTS | $16.68 | (no specific zone) | — | Speculative-bucket name; stop $11 / target $22. Lower priority post-print. |
| POWI | $78.23 | $60-70 (preferred <$65) | -10 to -23% | 1% starter at $65-70. Most thesis-relevant of the imminent prints (IP/topology rentier on 800V direct-conversion). |
| VICR | $280.34 | $215-245 | -13 to -23% | 33% of 2-3% target on first touch of $245 with RSI <65. Already digested some of its 81% 30D move. |
| BESIY | $294 | $260-280 | -5 to -12% | 50% of 4-5% target on first touch of $280. Closest to entry zone in the cohort. |
The cohort's pullback-to-entry distance ranges from -4% (MPWR, the closest) to -31% (AOSL, the most extreme). MPWR and BESIY only need single-digit pullbacks to become live; AOSL needs a real correction. That distribution is itself the asymmetry signal — closer-to-entry names are the cleaner post-print adds.
No autonomous executions. Every entry decision in this section is user-decision. The watch + framing job is what's autonomous; the trigger-pulls are not.
Day-1 post-print update — 2026-05-06 EOD
First two prints landed today. Empirical results vs. the asymmetric-DOWN framing:
| Ticker | Pre-print (5/4) | Day of print (5/5) | Day after (5/6) | Net 2-day | Framing call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOSL | $42.18 RSI 71.7 | $43.75 (+3.7%) | $49.33 (+12.8% on 2.3× volume) | +16.9% | "Asymmetric-DOWN" — WRONG. Beat strong enough to extend the move past RSI 77 / -1.3% from 52w high. |
| IFNNY | $66.74 RSI 84 | $72.22 (+8.2%) | $70.12 (-2.9%) | +5.1% | Partial — pop on print, partial give-back day-2. RSI ended 79.8. |
Cohort sympathy lifted everyone: POWI +8.9% 7d (prints tomorrow), VICR +8.0%, NVTS +15.1%, AIXA.DE +17.6% (no scheduled print), STM +7.8%, MRAAY +11.5%. AOSL's beat catalyzed the whole power-semis cohort up pre-their-own-prints.
What this updates in the framing
- The asymmetric-DOWN archetype is too pessimistic on Day 1. A strong beat extends the move past extreme RSI; the framing assumed any high-RSI name was already priced for perfection and would punish even mild beats. AOSL's beat at RSI 77 / -1.3% from 52w high added another +12.8% in a single session.
- The missing variable is beat magnitude. Strong beats → continuation. Misses → gap-fill. RSI alone doesn't tell you which. This is methodology refinement worth carrying back into the meta
2026-05-06-pre-earnings-archetypes-...md. - Cohort-confirmation pattern is real and fast. AOSL's beat moved the un-printed names (POWI 1d ahead, AIXA.DE / NVTS / STM no scheduled print) by 8-17% in the same week. The "wait for the print to land before deciding on cohort exposure" advice is correct only if you can react within 1-2 sessions. Slower than that and the cohort moves without you.
- POWI tomorrow is the live test. It's the most-thesis-relevant print of the imminent set per the 2026-05-01 deep-dive (1,250V GaN topology IP, asymmetric play on 800V direct-conversion). Now also riding the +8.9% sympathetic move from AOSL. Beat → likely +5-10% extension; miss → -10% gap-fill given how stretched it now is.
Records to keep
- AOSL post-earnings tape: $43.75 → $49.33 in one session, +12.8% on 2.3× normal volume. Filed as a learning data point for the meta retrospective on 2026-05-27.
- IFNNY post-earnings tape: $66.74 → $72.22 → $70.12, net +5.1% over 2 days. Modest beat-and-grind shape.
- The 2026-05-01 deep-dives' entry zones for AOSL ($34-37) and IFNNY ($56-60) are now further out of reach, not closer. The "wait for pullback to add" plans require a real correction now, not a print-day collapse.
Sources
- 2026-05-01-aosl-deep-dive,
-ifnny-,-mpwr-,-nvts-,-powi-,-vicr-,-besi-deep-dive.md— the per-name plans this digest sequences - 2026-05-06-wat-deep-dive — today's WAT-shape inverse case study (asymmetric-UP)
.journal/2026-05-06-the-data-plane-was-blind-12-monsters-hiding-in-the-watchlist.md— the audit that surfaced this cohort- 2026-05-06-audit-propagation-find-one-bug-class-find-the-next-most-similar-layer — methodology that produced the sweep
- 2026-05-06-pre-earnings-archetypes-wat-shape-vs-aosl-shape-asymmetric-up-vs-asymmetric-down — durable archetype framing
- 2026-05-03-ai-power-delivery — most-relevant perspective for AOSL/IFNNY/POWI/MPWR/VICR/NVTS/BESIY
- 2026-05-03-optical-supercycle — most-relevant for SIVEF/LPK.DE
Price truth: validated daily summaries (summaries).