Summary

NVIDIA reported the largest quarter in its history on August 26 — $96.2B of revenue, up 106% year over year, with a $108.0B guide for the next — and the stock moved 1.3% over five sessions, closing August 28 at $217.55, 11.1% above its 200-day average. Every layer that has to physically deliver that compute trades as if the order book already turned: eleven of twelve AI power and energy names below their 200-day averages, not one of the twenty power-delivery semiconductor names carrying a rising trend, and the chip-equipment complex's weakest structural category widening from one name to five in a week.

The demand layer got its confirmation

Data Center revenue was $89.0B, up 117% year over year, in NVIDIA's August 26 filing. The one item working against the print is a gross-margin reset to a 71–72% trough, which management attributed to memory costs rather than demand.

The rest of the compute layer reads the same on the August 28 AI board. Micron trades 58.5% above its 200-day on a 665.77% one-year gain, Seagate 43.1% above on 381.36%, Marvell 45.7% above on 180.49%. Whatever cooled in those names cooled inside trends nowhere near broken.

The feeder layers do not agree

Power and energy is the weakest group on that board, most of its twelve names flat-to-deeply negative on the year — Constellation −13.39%, Vistra −30.31%, NextEra's RSI down to 26.4, the most oversold reading anywhere in the complex. Bloom Energy is the single exception, 11.8% above its 200-day on a 284.62% year.

Power delivery — the semiconductors that step voltage down from the grid to the transistor, where roughly 30% of a data center's incoming power is lost to heat before it reaches a GPU — is uniformly weak. All twenty names carry a falling trend, RSI running from 32.8 at Power Integrations to 49.6 at TSMC. Vicor crossed below its 200-day average of $200.08 this week on a one-year gain of 260.16%. On the August 28 equipment board, the count of names in the weakest structural category went from one to five: Camtek, Axcelis, BE Semiconductor and MKS Instruments joined Amkor.

The fork is honest either way

Almost none of that carries the confirmation a real break requires. Camtek is up 54.37% over twelve months and beats the index by 34.5 points; MKS up 137.87% and 118.0 ahead; BE Semiconductor 60.14% and 40.27; Amkor 94.16% and 74.29; Vicor 260.16% and 240.29. Price below the 200-day paired with a weak year is structural damage; the same price on top of a year like those is a drawdown inside a working trend.

The names that genuinely fail the test are few: Alpha & Omega Semiconductor sits 16.1% below its 200-day on a −17.68% year, trailing the index by 37.55 points; Wolfspeed 9.6% below on −69.76%; Power Integrations 8.0% below on a +11.16% year that still lags by 8.72. Three broken charts across the thirty-plus delivery and equipment names is not a supply chain rolling over — the deeply negative years sit in the power and energy group, one layer away.

So either the delivery layer is quality on sale, or it is the layer closest to the physical build pricing something compute has not absorbed. Where the build is visibly straining is funding, not demand. IREN filed fiscal 2026 results on August 27: $707.0M of revenue against a $1.05B operating loss, $2.10B of operating cash flow against $3.00B of capex. The stock fell 15.4% over five sessions into that filing and trades below its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages.

What resolves it

Amkor at $55.75 and Camtek at $151.13 are the only equipment names with real rather than marginal gaps below their 200-day averages — 14.1% and 10.3% — and both widened sharply this week. Widen again and the drawdown reading loses its last support.

Against that: all fourteen equipment names and all twenty delivery names sit below their 20-day averages. A group that reclaims its 20-days together is a flush that ended; one that keeps cutting deeper below its 200-days while compute holds is the early warning.

Desk Call

MKS is the cleanest expression of the pullback case: the lowest RSI in the equipment complex at 33.9, a 137.87% year, only 1.5% below its 200-day — extension unwinding without trend damage. Bloom Energy is the other side, the last name in the power group above its long-term average and the level that would say the generation side gave way too.

Sources

• ai-scan, wfe-test-metrology.json, ai-power.json, supply-chain-traces.json — 2026-08-28 settled close (price, RSI, 7D/30D/1Y changes, 200-day and 20-day distances, one-year alpha)
• 2026-08-28-ai-scan and 2026-08-28-wfe-test-metrology — the August 28 AI and equipment boards
• README — the power-delivery cohort and the 30% parasitic-loss frame
• NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q and Form 8-K EX-99.1, filed 2026-08-26 — revenue, Data Center revenue, Q3 guidance, gross-margin reset; receipt at 2026-08-26-nvda-earnings and 2026-08-28-NVDA
• IREN FY2026 Form 10-K, filed 2026-08-27 — revenue, operating loss, operating cash flow, capex; receipt at 2026-08-28-IREN
• The August 22 industry report, "AI Compute and Power: Two Kinds of Down"