Article published Sep 6, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
September 4, 2026 settled prices; published September 6 for Tuesday, September 8. Monday is the Labor Day holiday.
Indexes are consolidating within a longer advance. SPY and QQQ remain above their long averages, with VIX at 14.53, but their defined pivots remain unbroken. The campaign's confirmation test is two consecutive settled closes above SPY 779.37 and QQQ 748.65, with VIX below 16 on both. Review follows the September 11 close.
NAND has the clearest agreement between monthly strength and Friday's rebound. The AI-provider cohort recovered sharply from a weak month, but only three of nine names with sufficient history closed above their 200-day averages. Electricity and industrial robotics also rebounded within weak months. Recovery breadth does not establish that every supplier or financing model works.
Financing remains costly without an abrupt credit shock in the supplied observations: the ten-year Treasury yielded 4.77% and high-yield spreads were 2.65 percentage points on September 3. The durability sample contains 85 jagged names among 291, or 29.21%; this measures drawdown concentration, not a historical crowding record. CPI and the subsequent policy decision are the next scheduled tests.
Memory and electricity remain the two primaries; two slots stay open. Micron's filed take-or-pay agreements and price protections strengthen memory's case, alongside SanDisk's current demand and mix evidence. GE Vernova supplies booked Power and Electrification demand; Constellation supplies future contracted nuclear demand. Future agreements remain distinct from delivered electricity.
Physical-AI components return to the bench because commercial machine vision has not established attributable robot-component demand and economics.
| Selected bench | Evidence needed before promotion |
|---|---|
| Physical-AI components | Component orders or design wins converting into attributable revenue and margins; distinguish supplier economics from robot-maker promises. |
| Biotech capital cycle | Verified funding recovery, XBI trend and CRO book-to-bill evidence; registered confirmation requires TMO, DHR and MEDP together to show positive three-month returns and RSI above 60. |
Micron is the sole BUY. Its historical RSI reset was 46.30, slightly above the approximate preferred band; a contracting thirteen-session flag and settled breakout justify the explicit historical-pattern admission. Its strict current-RSI screen remains EXTENDED. Friday already cleared 989.96: BUY permission requires that breakout to hold. A failed hold returns the entry to WAIT; 887.61 is earlier pattern failure, while 606.48 is the separate long-trend invalidation.
Five HIGH-conviction names wait on timing: NBIS, IREN, SNDK, GEV and CEG. Ten further WAITs are evidence-pending watches, not admitted purchases. Their levels trigger review; price alone cannot flip them to BUY. Every jagged name remains barred from BUY in this campaign.
CRWV, APLD, CORZ, WULF, HUT, CIFR, GLXY and CBRS are excluded from this capital window for distinct operating, financing or history gaps. ETN, PWR, CGNX and OUST also lack admission for the proposed expression. The complete price screen covers 467 names: 23 GOOD, 313 EXTENDED, 102 BROKEN and 29 excluded. Screening does not assign company conviction.
Trust before this campaign: Completed 30-day BUY calls beat SPY 27.27% of the time (3 of 11); the eight misses averaged 10.37 percentage points behind SPY. Nine calls lack complete 30-day grades. None of the 20 prior BUY calls has a complete 90-day grade. These measure publication-date calls, not executed trades.
These desk-authored conditions trigger reassessment; they are not forecasts.
| Macro risk | Exact dated review trigger | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation or policy repricing | September 11 headline CPI ≥0.4% month over month or core ≥0.3%, seasonally adjusted; separately, a rate increase in the September 16 FOMC decision. | Pressure on memory valuations and electricity-project financing costs. |
| Financing tightens | September 8–18: high-yield spread ≥3.50 percentage points or ten-year Treasury yield ≥5.00%, on two consecutive available observations. First checkpoint September 11. | Delayed AI-provider capacity, equipment and power orders. |
| Shipping or energy disruption | Through September 11: a fresh official notice confirms a Hormuz transit restriction or material Gulf LNG loading outage. Check the maritime advisory's status by its September 9 expiry. | Higher delivered energy costs and disrupted fabrication or equipment delivery. |
Desk Calls — September 8 Entry Map
All reviews are September 11, 2026. “Evidence pending” requires company or fund admission in addition to the stated price condition. Observed highs requiring a new flag are review references, not established breakout pivots.
| Name | Lane | Cohort | Entry axis | Action | Level and remaining condition | Invalidation below | Review | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | Memory | Mid | GOOD historical; screen EXTENDED | BUY | Hold above 989.96, already cleared Friday; failed hold returns to WAIT | 606.48 long trend; 887.61 earlier flag failure | Sep 11 | MU dive |
| NBIS | AI cloud bench | Jagged | EXTENDED | WAIT — thesis supported | 226.58 Friday high; new flag and financing-term review | 154.79, 200-day | Sep 11 | NBIS disclosure; Names review |
| IREN | AI cloud bench | Jagged | BROKEN | WAIT — thesis supported | Reclaim 45.66, 200-day, then hold a flag; later delivery and funding remain conditional | 43.57, volume-profile support | Sep 11 | IREN disclosure; Names review |
| SNDK | Memory | Jagged | EXTENDED | WAIT — thesis supported | Above 1740.00 Friday high after a new flag; sustained margin durability remains unproven | 1003.97, 200-day | Sep 11 | SNDK disclosure; Names review |
| GEV | Electricity | Jagged | GOOD | WAIT — thesis supported | Reclaim 971.98, 20-day, then hold a flag | 886.12, 200-day | Sep 11 | GEV disclosure; Names review |
| CEG | Electricity | Jagged | EXTENDED | WAIT — thesis supported | Above 299.73 Friday high after a held reclaim and new flag | 296.36, 200-day | Sep 11 | CEG disclosure; Names review |
| TSM | Foundry | Mid | EXTENDED | WAIT — evidence pending | 461.47 established pivot; settled volume-supported breakout and company review | 372.83, 200-day | Sep 11 | Names and call review |
| SOXX | Semiconductors | Jagged | EXTENDED | WAIT — evidence pending | Reclaim 523.42, 20-day, then flag; verify fund exposures and constituent theses | 431.53, 200-day | Sep 11 | Names and call review |
| AMAT | Equipment | Jagged | EXTENDED | WAIT — evidence pending | Reclaim 489.46, 20-day, then flag; verify orders and export exposure | 407.06, 200-day | Sep 11 | Names and call review |
| NVDA | AI compute | Clean | EXTENDED | WAIT — evidence pending | 236.54 established pivot; volume-supported breakout and fresh company review | 210.57, preserved 50-day reference | Sep 11 | Names and call review |
| WDC | Storage | Jagged | EXTENDED | WAIT — evidence pending | 468.19 Friday high after a new flag; allocation, margins and capacity discipline unresolved | 372.81, 200-day | Sep 11 | Names and call review |
| GLW | Optical links | Jagged | EXTENDED | WAIT — evidence pending | 154.59 Friday high after a new flag; verify demand, capacity and margins | 143.78, 200-day | Sep 11 | Names and call review |
| COHR | Optics | Jagged | EXTENDED | WAIT — evidence pending | Reclaim 299.22, 20-day, then flag; verify allocation and margins | 276.44, 200-day | Sep 11 | Names and call review |
| MRVL | AI networking | Jagged | EXTENDED | WAIT — evidence pending | Reclaim 224.58, 20-day, then flag; verify design-win conversion and margins | 151.77, 200-day | Sep 11 | Names and call review |
| LRCX | Equipment | Jagged | EXTENDED | WAIT — evidence pending | Reclaim 312.76, 20-day, then flag; verify orders and memory spending | 260.90, 200-day | Sep 11 | Names and call review |
| VRT | Power and cooling | Jagged | EXTENDED | WAIT — evidence pending | 280.99 Friday high after a new flag; verify orders, backlog conversion and margins | 257.40, 200-day | Sep 11 | Names and call review |
Sources
Climate review: 2026-09-06-climate-read-campaign-01; BLS CPI, Federal Reserve calendar, Maritime Administration advisory.
Names review and frozen classification: 2026-09-06-names-read-campaign-01; classification. Price authority *, September 4 settled, with exact fields archived beside the classification.
MU dive: Micron company proof, 2026-09-06-mu-campaign-01-entry-proof; Micron quarterly filing.
Issuer disclosures: 2026-09-06-theses-read-campaign-01.receipts; Nebius, IREN, SanDisk, GE Vernova, Constellation.
Trust and call reconciliation: 2026-09-06-miss-autopsy; call-metrics. Historical published calls remain preserved for grading; 24 live instructions superseded, one historical closure restored.
Company financial preflight: the desk's own tooling and the desk's own tooling; same-quarter reconciliation in financial-series. Source statements: income-statements and key-financials; no raw annual/TTM values substituted for quarters.
The desk's counterpoint
Two calls can disagree from different first principles; that is intended.