composite

Optical Supercycle Core

members 6 weighting equal benchmark SPY

Equal-weight composite of the proven Wave-1 optical names: the lasers, transceivers, systems, and interconnect layers of the AI photonics build-out that NVIDIA anchored with direct investment (LITE, COHR) — plus the module and retimer layers riding the same capex (FN, CIEN, ALAB, CRDO).

Cumulative return since Jul 16 — both lines start at 0%, so the gap between them IS the out/under-performance. Hover for daily values.

	1D	7D	30D	3M	1Y
cohort	+4.9%	+12.4%	+24.6%	+17.7%	+288.1%
SPY	-0.5%	-0.1%	+4.0%	+4.9%	+21.4%
Δ	+5.4%	+12.4%	+20.7%	+12.8%	+266.6%

equal-weight · buy-and-hold from window start, no rebalancing · 3M+ windows are a current-roster backcast.

30D breadth 6/6 up

trend: 5 up · 0 flat · 1 down · avg RSI 58 · 100% above SMA200 · covered 6/6

contributors

CRDO+6.6pp+39.5%

LITE+5.4pp+32.2%

COHR+4.4pp+26.5%

FNE+4.2pp+25.1%

CIEN+3.1pp+18.9%

detractors

ALAB+0.9pp+5.5%

CRDO $282.82 +8.8% +39.5% +81.0% +148.0% 63 coming into play -8.4%

LITE $968.90 +4.6% +32.2% +9.5% +711.9% 61 coming into play -10.8%

COHR $351.22 +7.8% +26.5% -3.2% +290.7% 56 coming into play -20.2%

FNE $598.58 +5.0% +25.1% -14.5% +103.4% 63 coming into play -20.1%

CIEN $445.18 +3.8% +18.9% -15.1% +395.7% 57 coming into play -30.2%

ALAB $320.17 -0.5% +5.5% +48.5% +78.8% 49 coming into play -35.9%