composite

Optical Supercycle Core

members 6 weighting equal benchmark SPY

Equal-weight composite of the proven Wave-1 optical names: the lasers, transceivers, systems, and interconnect layers of the AI photonics build-out that NVIDIA anchored with direct investment (LITE, COHR) — plus the module and retimer layers riding the same capex (FN, CIEN, ALAB, CRDO).

Cumulative return since Sep 8 — both lines start at 0%, so the gap between them IS the out/under-performance. Hover for daily values.

	1D	7D	30D	3M	1Y
cohort	+2.5%	+1.8%	+17.8%	+0.3%	+173.9%
SPY	+0.6%	+1.2%	+2.1%	+3.1%	+16.0%
Δ	+1.9%	+0.7%	+15.7%	-2.9%	+157.9%

equal-weight · buy-and-hold from window start, no rebalancing · 3M+ windows are a current-roster backcast.

30D breadth 6/6 up

trend: 6 up · 0 flat · 0 down · avg RSI 59 · 83% above SMA200 · covered 6/6

contributors

CIEN+5.5pp+33.1%

CRDO+4.8pp+29.0%

FN+2.7pp+16.3%

ALAB+2.3pp+13.9%

LITE+1.9pp+11.6%

detractors

COHR+0.5pp+3.0%

CIEN $449.77 +5.6% +33.1% -2.4% +174.9% 67 coming into play -29.4%

CRDO $216.55 +2.2% +29.0% -16.0% +43.3% 57 coming into play -29.8%

FN $486.28 -0.2% +16.3% +3.2% +27.2% 63 retreating -35.1%

ALAB $342.21 -1.4% +13.9% -17.1% +51.8% 51 coming into play -31.5%

LITE $1103.36 +5.2% +11.6% +37.6% +590.6% 63 in trend -3.5%

COHR $312.62 +3.4% +3.0% -3.7% +155.5% 52 coming into play -28.9%