AI power: generation and grid equipment · Campaigns
Campaign
AI power: generation and grid equipment
active · AI · Power · Energy
Horizon 12–36 months; test order quality and delivery conversion at each quarterly release. Last research review Latest evidence Priority high
Evidence
Supports, challenges and context. A linked source is not confirmation by itself.
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CGEH — Deep Dive
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Investigation — Aschenbrenner essay vs 13F scorecard — what the Situational Awareness predictions have actually done, and the new megacap put overlay
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Investigation — Aschenbrenner research dossier — essay-mined lanes, the pair-trade put book, 13F track-record calibration, and cross-manager convergence
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Kobeissi 30d data-center capex record — tweet
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Investigation — SpaceX (SPCX) original S-1 full read, section by section
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Investigation — SpaceX S-1 picks-and-shovels / supply-chain investable map
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aibottlenecks.app monthly snapshot — 113-name chokepoint universe baseline — dashboard-snapshot
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Investigation — Following the money up Dell's supply chain — where the alpha moved and what's durable vs cyclical bubble
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Astera Labs ALAB retimer thesis — most boring chip highest gross margin in the rack — tweet
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Investigation — Nearline HDD storage chokepoint — demand corroborated, supply chain mapped, durable vs bubble and coverage decision
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AI-Lab S-1 → Thesis Crosswalk Playbook
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Thread: AI mega-IPO / Fast Entry liquidity regime
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Investigation — xAI (SpaceX AI segment) S-1/A crosswalk read — first application of the AI-lab S-1 thesis crosswalk playbook
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NVDA Q1 FY27 Calendar Correction
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Investigation — BAM-BN carried-interest split — primary filing read
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BEP — Deep Dive
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BIP / BIPC — Deep Dive
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BN — Deep Dive
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Dell upstream-suppliers map — memory then microprocessors then hard drives, supply-constrained not demand — tweet
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IREN — Deep Dive
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Investigation — ARM per-chip royalty empirical estimate
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Investigation — BAM payout-ratio 116% sustainability — primary-filing read
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NVDA Q1 FY27 Earnings (superseded cadence date — 2026-05-28)
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Thread: Anthropic IPO / compute-financing holding pen
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Investigation — Anthropic-SpaceX $15B/yr Cloud Services Contract
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BAM — Deep Dive
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CPU Shortage Thesis — First-Principles Derivation
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Investigation — $CRS FY2025 10-K customer-concentration primary-source read
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Investigation — SpaceX IPO Deep Dive: Separate Trades + the Oxygen Question
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ARM — Deep Dive
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Investigation — Optical supercycle WHY: what specifically drove the CIEN/COHR demand acceleration
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Weird-ETF rotation read — MSTR-leverage breakdown, AI-stack narrowing, defensives flat
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bufr-cap-saturation — regime signal
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CRS — Carpenter Technology Corporation — Deep Dive
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value-vs-growth-inflection — rotation signal
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vix-compression — regime signal
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Lithium Breakout — Coordinated Basket at 52wk Highs (2026-05-10)
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Thread: AI counterparty taxonomy — graduating tickers vs permanent watched entities, with Cerebras May 15 as the forcing function
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ATI — ATI Inc. — Deep Dive
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CGEH long-form pitch — third independent source on Capstone vs Bloom data-center-power thesis