Historical energy-to-food transmission scenario. No current market claim is adopted.

Why now

Review archival scope only. Preserve the existing closure date, reason, history and calls; do not reconstruct unreviewed historical thesis details.

In scope

Identity, topic and existing closed disposition

Out of scope

Fresh thesis validation · Reopening or regrading historical calls

Expected horizon

Historical window; exact original timing remains in the archive and is not re-established by this review.

What supports it

No fresh supporting-evidence verdict; original source history is preserved.

What would break it

No live claim to invalidate; a new case requires fresh evidence and its own failure tests.

Next review On condition · No standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.

Closed 2026-05-23 · Retired-with-verdict via R31-A execution of the R23-G capacity action pack. Cascade transmission FAILED: within-stage dispersion (CF +10.7% vs MOS -11% 30d; ADM +16% vs FMC -26% 30d on the R15 5/19 tape) is LARGER than between-stage. Stage 4 (MOS) was supposed to trigger on Stage 1 re-pressurization; Stage 1 IS pressurized but Stage 4 BROKE DOWN (RSI 33, 30d -11%) — independent weakness, not transmission. The CF + ADM strength is a real signal but doesn't need a 4-stage frame — consolidated as a Stage-1 annotation on us-energy-dominance. R17 + R23-G converged on the retire recommendation; R31-A executed. No successor — durable signal lives on the parent. See research/perspectives/2026-05-03-food-security-cascade/log.md 2026-05-23 entry. Reopen trigger: MOS > $25 RSI > 50 sustained AND DBA > $28 (Stage 4 recovers off the death cross AND Stage 3 commodity leg confirms — both required to re-justify the cascade frame). Filed to memory at reference_food_security_cascade_reopen_trigger.