Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: A cattle disease shock could increase animal-health demand and induce protein substitution. These two transmission paths require separate evidence.

Why now

Remove the conditional disease scenario from the working set because official detection and commercial transmission were unresolved in the reviewed packet.

In scope

A cattle disease shock could increase animal-health demand and induce protein substitution. These two transmission paths require separate evidence.

Out of scope

No current campaign-level investment recommendation · No reconstruction of past returns or reassignment of original calls

Expected horizon

Weeks to months after verified detection; no current campaign window.

What supports it

Require an official USDA/APHIS out-of-zone detection and actual hurt-versus-beneficiary dispersion; verify ELAN segment results and product demand. Containment or absent commercial transmission limits the scenario.

What would break it

The closure is a research-priority decision, not a new market falsification verdict. Original evidence gaps and outcomes remain as recorded.

Next review On condition · An official APHIS detection plus identified commercial animal-health demand or protein substitution would justify a focused successor.

Closed 2026-09-06 · Remove the conditional disease scenario from the working set because official detection and commercial transmission were unresolved in the reviewed packet.