Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| PLTR |
$147.76 |
-1% |
-12% |
-15% |
-29% |
-21% |
13↓ |
🟢 Pullback |
🔍 Research |
Legend
- RSI
↓ = Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunity
- RSI
↑ = Overbought (>70) - FOMO warning, may pullback
- 52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)
Company Overview
One-Liner
Software platform that turns messy enterprise data into actionable intelligence for governments and corporations.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Data integration & AI platforms (Gotham, Foundry, AIP) |
| Who pays |
US Government, allied governments, Fortune 500 enterprises |
| Revenue model |
Subscription + consumption, multi-year contracts |
| How sticky |
Extremely sticky - becomes the data "nervous system" |
| Platform |
Customer |
Purpose |
| Gotham |
Government/Defense |
Intelligence analysis, counter-terrorism |
| Foundry |
Enterprise |
Data integration, operations management |
| AIP |
Both |
AI/LLM deployment on enterprise data |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Government |
~55% |
~15-20% |
Stable, high-margin, long contracts |
| Commercial |
~45% |
~50%+ |
Accelerating, AIP-driven |
Geographic Mix
| Region |
Revenue % |
Notes |
| US |
~65% |
Core market, defense + enterprise |
| International |
~35% |
NATO allies, select enterprise |
Competitive Analysis
Industry Position
| Question |
Answer |
| Market share |
Leader in gov data platforms; challenger in enterprise |
| Market size (TAM) |
$120B+ (data platforms + AI infrastructure) |
| Growth rate |
~25% CAGR for AI data platforms |
| Key competitors |
Snowflake (data), Databricks (analytics), legacy SIs (Accenture, Booz Allen) |
| Position |
Category creator / Leader in gov, fast-growing in commercial |
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟡 Limited |
Some data network effects within customer orgs |
| Switching costs |
🟢 Strong |
Becomes embedded in operations; 5-10 year implementation value |
| Cost advantages |
🟡 Limited |
Premium pricing, not cost leader |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 Strong |
Security clearances, gov relationships, Thiel/Karp reputation |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 Growing |
Platform economics improving with AIP |
Moat Assessment
Moat Width: Narrow (government is Wide, commercial is Narrow)
Moat Trend: Widening (AIP creating new differentiation)
Summary:
Government moat is durable (clearances, relationships, multi-year contracts). Commercial moat is emerging - AIP creates differentiation vs Snowflake/Databricks. Main risk is that better-funded cloud providers could catch up.
Management Assessment
Leadership
| Role |
Name |
Since |
Background |
Notes |
| CEO |
Alex Karp |
2003 (co-founder) |
Stanford PhD, philosopher |
Unconventional but effective |
| CTO |
Shyam Sankar |
Long tenure |
Stanford, deep technical |
Operational leader |
| CFO |
Dave Glazer |
2022 |
EA, Zillow |
Brought financial discipline |
| Chairman |
Peter Thiel |
Co-founder |
PayPal mafia |
Strategic vision, DC connections |
Founder Involvement
| Question |
Answer |
| Founder-led? |
Yes - Karp is CEO, Thiel is Chairman |
| Founder ownership |
~8% combined (significant dilution over years) |
| Skin in the game |
Yes, but heavy selling (see below) |
Capital Allocation
| Metric |
Track Record |
| M&A discipline |
Good - minimal acquisitions, organic growth |
| Buyback timing |
N/A - prioritizing growth |
| R&D investment |
High - continuous platform investment |
| Debt management |
Conservative - minimal debt, cash-rich |
Red Flags
- Excessive exec compensation - Karp's SBC is controversial (~$1B+ over years)
- High turnover in key roles - Generally stable
- Related party transactions - None significant
- Aggressive accounting - No, but SBC distorts GAAP
Management Verdict: Visionary but shareholder-dilutive. Trust the strategy, watch the SBC.
Financials
Key Metrics
| Metric |
Current |
1Y Ago |
3Y Ago |
Trend |
| Revenue |
~$2.8B ARR |
~$2.2B |
~$1.5B |
📈 Accelerating |
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+63% |
+26% |
+31% |
📈 AIP inflection |
| Gross Margin |
~82% |
~80% |
~78% |
📈 |
| Operating Margin |
~15% (adj) |
~5% |
Negative |
📈 Turning profitable |
| FCF Margin |
~25%+ |
~15% |
~5% |
📈 Strong |
Leading Indicators (from stonks)
| Indicator |
Value |
Signal |
| Revenue Acceleration |
+4.11% |
🟢 Growth accelerating |
| YoY Growth |
+62.8% |
🟢 Strong |
| Earnings Beat Rate |
100% |
🟢🟢 STRONG |
| Insider Trading |
-$4.7B net |
🟡 Heavy selling (routine) |
| Composite |
0.7 |
🟢 Bullish |
Quality Checks
| Check |
Status |
Notes |
| FCF positive? |
🟢 Yes |
~$600M+ annually |
| Profitable? |
🟢 Yes |
GAAP profitable since Q4 2022 |
| Debt manageable? |
🟢 Yes |
Net cash position |
| Cash runway |
Infinite |
FCF positive, no burn |
Revenue Quality
| Factor |
Assessment |
| Recurring % |
~95%+ (subscription-based) |
| Customer concentration |
Top 20 customers = ~50%+ |
| Contract length |
3-5 years average |
| NRR/NDR |
~115%+ (land and expand) |
Valuation
Current Multiples
| Metric |
Current |
5Y Avg |
Industry Avg |
| P/S |
~50x |
~30x |
~10x (Snowflake ~15x) |
| EV/Revenue |
~48x |
~28x |
~10x |
| P/FCF |
~100x |
N/A |
~30x |
Historical Range
| Metric |
Current |
5Y High |
5Y Low |
% of Range |
| P/S |
~50x |
~75x (2021) |
~8x (2022) |
63% |
| Price |
$148 |
~$45 (adj) |
~$6 (adj) |
High |
Valuation Assessment
The Bull View: P/S of 50x is justified for:
- 60%+ growth accelerating
- 80%+ gross margins
- Category-defining AI platform
- Rule of 40 score >85
The Bear View: Even great companies can be overvalued:
- SaaS peers trade at 10-20x revenue
- Growth could decelerate post-AIP hype
- Multiple compression risk is severe
My Fair Value: $120-140 (if growth sustains) / $80-100 (if growth slows)
Bull Case
Why This Could Work (5 Reasons)
AIP is a game-changer
- Evidence: Commercial growth accelerated from ~20% to 50%+ after AIP launch
- Implication: Palantir solved the "AI deployment" problem enterprises struggle with
Government moat is durable
- Evidence: Multi-year contracts, security clearances, irreplaceable relationships
- Implication: 55% of revenue is extremely sticky, provides base for commercial bets
Rule of 40 score is exceptional
- Evidence: ~63% growth + ~25% FCF margin = ~88
- Implication: Best-in-class efficiency, can afford premium valuation
Land and expand is working
- Evidence: NRR >115%, existing customers spending more
- Implication: Customer acquisition cost amortizes; lifetime value is massive
Alex Karp is thinking 10+ years out
- Evidence: Long-term contracts, platform reinvestment, ignoring short-term pressures
- Implication: Compounding machine if thesis plays out
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| Commercial sustains 50%+ growth |
$250+ (+70%) |
| Major government contract wins |
$200-220 (+35-50%) |
| Multiple re-rating as growth platform |
$180-200 (+20-35%) |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong (5 Risks)
Valuation compression
- How it plays out: Growth slows, market re-rates from 50x to 20x P/S
- Probability: Medium - could happen on any disappointment
AIP is a fad
- How it plays out: Enterprises find cheaper/simpler AI deployment
- Probability: Low - but possible if open-source catches up
Government spending cuts
- How it plays out: New administration cuts defense tech spending
- Probability: Low - bipartisan support for defense tech
Competition catches up
- How it plays out: Snowflake, Databricks, or hyperscalers replicate AIP
- Probability: Medium - they have resources but not the head start
Key person risk
- How it plays out: Karp or Thiel depart, culture changes
- Probability: Low-Medium - both deeply committed
Thesis Killers
- Commercial growth drops below 30% for 2+ quarters
- Major government contract loss
- Karp departure or scandal
Downside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| Growth slows to 20-30% |
$80-100 (-30-45%) |
| Multiple compresses to 20x |
$60-80 (-45-60%) |
| Broad market correction |
$100-120 (-20-30%) |
Market-Moving News
Understanding what moves this stock helps identify overreactions vs fundamental shifts.
Historical (What Moved This Stock Before)
| Date |
Event |
Impact |
Market Reaction |
Lesson |
| 2021-01 |
Direct listing + meme stock frenzy |
+400% |
Overreaction |
Retail hype is temporary |
| 2022 |
Fed rate hikes, growth selloff |
-80% |
Overreaction |
Multiple compression ≠ thesis broken |
| 2023-05 |
First GAAP profitability |
+25% |
Justified |
Profitability unlocks new buyers |
| 2024-H2 |
AIP launch + commercial acceleration |
+150% |
Mostly justified |
AIP is real, but multiple got stretched |
| 2025-Q4 |
Q4 earnings beat, 70% growth |
+5% after hours |
Mixed |
Already priced in, expectations high |
Recent News (Q4 2025 / Q1 2026)
| Date |
Headline |
Source |
Impact |
Relevance |
| 2026-02-02 |
Q4 2025: Revenue $1.41B (+70% YoY), beat $1.33B est |
CNBC |
🟢 |
Fundamentals strong |
| 2026-02-02 |
2026 guidance: $7.2B revenue (61% YoY), beat $6.2B est |
BusinessWire |
🟢 |
Crushing expectations |
| 2026-02-02 |
US Commercial revenue +137% YoY |
Earnings |
🟢🟢 |
AIP is inflecting |
| 2026-02-02 |
Rule of 40 score now 127% |
Earnings |
🟢 |
Best-in-class efficiency |
| 2025-H2 |
$10B US Army contract signed |
Press |
🟢 |
Government moat intact |
| 2025-12 |
$448M US Navy shipbuilding contract |
Press |
🟢 |
Defense spending continues |
| 2025-11 |
Michael Burry reveals short position |
News |
🟡 |
Valuation skeptics exist |
News Patterns
What the market cares about for PLTR:
- Commercial growth rate - AIP adoption is the key narrative
- Government contract wins - Validates moat, provides stability
- Valuation concerns - Any deceleration → severe multiple compression
Overreaction pattern: Stock sold off 15% in 2026 despite crushing earnings. Market worried about valuation, not fundamentals. This rhymes with 2022 selloff (fundamentals fine, multiple compression).
| Symbol |
Name |
Relationship |
30D |
Status |
Notes |
| IGV |
iShares Software ETF |
Contains PLTR + peers |
-18% |
🔴 Bleeding |
Whole sector weak |
| WCLD |
WisdomTree Cloud ETF |
Cloud/SaaS peers |
-18% |
🔴 Bleeding |
Cloud selloff |
| ARKK |
ARK Innovation |
Contains PLTR (~5%) |
-7% |
🔴 Falling |
Cathie exposure |
| SNOW |
Snowflake |
Data platform competitor |
-15% |
🟢 Pullback |
Similar selloff |
| CRM |
Salesforce |
Enterprise AI peer |
-18% |
🟢 Pullback |
Similar selloff |
| NOW |
ServiceNow |
Enterprise AI peer |
-20% |
🟢 Pullback |
Similar selloff |
Sector Context
The entire enterprise software/AI sector is pulling back (-15% to -20%). PLTR is not being singled out. This suggests:
- Sector rotation, not PLTR-specific concern
- Rising tide will lift all boats when sentiment shifts
- Better to buy PLTR than sector ETF (higher conviction)
Cross-References (Where This Appears in Our System)
| Location |
File |
Context |
| Scans |
scans/2026-02-02-ai-scan.md |
-15% pullback, marked for Research |
| Scans |
scans/2026-02-03-ai-infrastructure.md |
AI infrastructure context |
| Candidates |
candidates/ai-infra/ |
Listed in AI infrastructure theme |
| Theses |
(none yet) |
Could create "Enterprise AIP" thesis |
| Ideas |
ideas/README.md |
Mentioned in overview |
| Watchlists |
ai-infra.json, ai-scan.json |
Tracked |
| Holdings |
holdings/stocks/2026-02-03-stocks.md |
Currently held (+271% gain) |
Discovered during research - tickers that should be tracked in our system.
| Ticker |
Why Related |
Suggested Placement |
Priority |
Notes |
| SNOW |
Data cloud competitor |
Already in web-cloud/ |
🟢 |
-15% pullback, similar entry |
| CRM |
Enterprise AI (Einstein) |
Add to cloud-saas/ |
🟢 |
-18% pullback, blue chip |
| NOW |
IT workflow AI |
Add to cloud-saas/ |
🟢 |
-20% pullback, quality |
| DDOG |
Observability for AI |
Already in web-cloud/ |
🟡 |
Monitor alongside |
| C3.ai (AI) |
Pure-play AI competitor |
Consider for ai-scan |
🟡 |
More speculative |
| BAH |
Booz Allen (gov SI competitor) |
Consider for thesis |
🟡 |
Government comparison |
Catalysts & Timing
Upcoming Catalysts
| Date |
Event |
Impact |
Watch For |
| Q1 2026 |
Earnings |
🟢/🟡 |
Commercial growth rate, AIP metrics |
| Ongoing |
Government contracts |
🟢 |
Large deal announcements |
| 2026 |
AIP GA + enterprise rollout |
🟢 |
Customer count, ARR acceleration |
Key Dates
| Event |
Frequency |
Next Date |
| Earnings |
Quarterly |
~Feb 2026 |
| Investor Day |
Annual |
~TBD |
Entry Strategy
Position Sizing
| Conviction |
Allocation |
| Speculative |
0% |
| Low |
1-2% |
| Medium |
3-5% |
| High |
5-10% |
My conviction: Medium
Target allocation: 3-4%
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$130 - $150 (current range) |
| Starter position |
50% of target (1.5-2%) |
| Add on |
Pullback to $120-130 or sustained commercial growth |
| Full position at |
Conviction upgrade after 2 quarters of execution |
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Current |
$147.76 |
-15.5% from recent high |
| Support 1 |
$145 |
Recent low |
| Support 2 |
$120-125 |
Previous consolidation |
| Resistance |
$175 |
Recent high |
| 52-week high |
$187 |
AIP hype peak |
| 52-week low |
$20 |
Way below (2023 lows) |
Research Checklist
Fundamentals
- Review recent earnings data (leading indicators)
- Read most recent 10-K/10-Q
- Listen to last 2 earnings calls
- Review investor presentations
- Understand AIP pricing model
Competitive
- Map competitive landscape
- Assess AIP vs Snowflake Cortex, Databricks
- Check customer case studies
Management
- Research CEO/CFO background
- Check insider ownership trends
- Note SBC concerns
Valuation
- Review current multiples
- Build scenario model
- Identify entry zones
Risk
- Write bear case
- Identify thesis-killers
- Set stop-loss level
Sources
| Type |
Link |
Notes |
| Investor Relations |
investor.palantir.com |
|
| SEC Filings |
sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=palantir |
|
| AIP Info |
palantir.com/platforms/aip |
|
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-03 |
Created deep dive. -15% pullback entry. Leading indicators bullish (rev accel +4%, earnings 100% beat). Heavy insider selling noted but expected. |
| 2026-02-03 |
REVISED: Added price data table, market-moving news (historical + recent), related ETFs, cross-references, related tickers. Sector-wide selloff context. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Revenue acceleration is REAL (+4.11%) |
AIP is not just hype, driving actual growth |
| 100% earnings beat rate |
Management under-promises, over-delivers |
| Heavy insider selling (-$4.7B) |
Known risk, SBC-driven, but worth monitoring |
| Commercial now ~45% of revenue |
Less government-dependent than perception |
| Q4 2025: US Commercial +137% YoY |
AIP adoption is real, not just pilots |
| 2026 guidance crushed estimates ($7.2B vs $6.2B) |
Management confidence is high |
| Entire sector down 15-20% (IGV, WCLD) |
Not PLTR-specific, sector rotation |
| Michael Burry short bet |
Valuation concern is the bear case, not fundamentals |
News Pattern Analysis
| Pattern |
What Happened |
Lesson for PLTR |
| 2022 growth selloff |
Down 80% on rates, recovered |
Multiple compression ≠ broken thesis |
| 2026 post-earnings pullback |
Crushed earnings, still -15% |
Expectations are sky-high, any miss = pain |
| AIP launches |
Stock rallied, then pulled back |
Initial hype overshoots, fundamentals catch up |
Key insight: PLTR tends to overreact to sentiment. Buy on valuation-driven selloffs (like now), not momentum chasing.
Open Questions
- How sticky is AIP vs competitors launching similar products?
- What's the actual AIP revenue contribution vs Foundry/Gotham?
- Will SBC dilution slow as the company matures?
- What's the next major government contract pipeline?
Conviction Path
| To Increase |
To Decrease |
| 2+ quarters of 50%+ commercial growth |
Commercial growth < 30% |
| Major enterprise customer wins |
Key customer churn |
| SBC reduction |
More dilution |
| Pullback to $120-130 |
Run to $200 without fundamentals |