Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| NET |
$166.88 |
flat |
-14.7% |
-15.6% |
-27.0% |
-35.8% |
40 |
🟡 Pullback |
🔍 Research add |
Legend
- RSI
↓ = Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunity
- RSI
↑ = Overbought (>70) - FOMO warning, may pullback
- 52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)
Company Overview
One-Liner
Cloudflare provides edge computing, CDN, and security services through a global network spanning 320+ cities.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
CDN, DDoS protection, Zero Trust security, Workers edge compute, R2 storage |
| Who pays |
Enterprises (73% of revenue), SMBs, developers |
| Revenue model |
Subscription (usage-based pricing for edge compute) |
| How sticky |
High - 119% net dollar retention, infrastructure deeply embedded |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Enterprise (>$100K) |
73% |
+42% YoY |
4,009 large customers |
| SMB/Self-serve |
27% |
~15% YoY |
Developer-led growth |
Geographic Mix
| Region |
Revenue % |
Notes |
| US |
~55% |
Primary market |
| International |
~45% |
EMEA, APAC growing |
Competitive Analysis
Industry Position
| Question |
Answer |
| Market share |
~10% CDN market, growing in edge compute |
| Market size (TAM) |
DDoS protection: $17B by 2033 |
| Growth rate |
~25% CAGR for edge computing |
| Key competitors |
AWS CloudFront, Akamai, Fastly, Zscaler |
| Position |
Challenger becoming Leader |
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
More sites = better threat intelligence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Deep DNS/infrastructure integration |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Serverless model, R2 zero egress fees |
| Intangible assets |
🟡 |
Brand recognition, developer mindshare |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
320+ data centers, global reach |
Moat Assessment
Moat Width: Narrow
Moat Trend: Widening
Summary:
Cloudflare has built meaningful competitive advantages through its global network and developer-first approach. The moat is widening as Workers adoption grows and enterprises consolidate on the platform. However, hyperscalers (AWS, Azure) remain formidable competitors with bundled offerings.
Management Assessment
Leadership
| Role |
Name |
Since |
Background |
Notes |
| CEO |
Matthew Prince |
2009 |
Co-founder, Harvard MBA, JD from Chicago |
Active on X, public-facing |
| COO |
Michelle Zatlyn |
2009 |
Co-founder, Harvard MBA |
President & Co-Chair |
| CFO |
Thomas Seifert |
2022 |
Former AMD CFO |
Experienced operator |
| CSO |
Stephanie Cohen |
2024 |
Former Goldman exec |
Strategy focus |
Founder Involvement
| Question |
Answer |
| Founder-led? |
Yes - both co-founders active |
| Founder ownership |
~15% combined |
| Skin in the game |
High, though significant insider selling |
Capital Allocation
| Metric |
Track Record |
| M&A discipline |
Good - small tuck-ins (Area 1 Security) |
| Buyback timing |
N/A - growth stage |
| R&D investment |
High (~35% of revenue) |
| Debt management |
Conservative - $1.3B cash |
Red Flags
- Excessive exec compensation (SBC ~25% of revenue)
- High turnover in key roles
- Related party transactions
- Aggressive accounting
Financials
Key Metrics
| Metric |
Current |
1Y Ago |
3Y Ago |
Trend |
| Revenue |
$2.14B (FY25E) |
$1.67B |
$975M |
📈 |
| Revenue Growth YoY |
31% |
29% |
48% |
➡️ Stable |
| Gross Margin |
79% |
78% |
77% |
📈 |
| Operating Margin |
8% |
2% |
-15% |
📈 |
| FCF Margin |
~12% |
~8% |
~0% |
📈 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA |
-2.5x |
-3x |
N/A |
➡️ |
Quality Checks
| Check |
Status |
Notes |
| FCF positive? |
🟢 |
Turned FCF positive 2023 |
| Profitable? |
🟡 |
Operating profitable, GAAP net loss due to SBC |
| Debt manageable? |
🟢 |
$1.3B cash, minimal debt |
| Cash runway |
Indefinite |
FCF positive |
Revenue Quality
| Factor |
Assessment |
| Recurring % |
~95% |
| Customer concentration |
Low (no customer >10%) |
| Contract length |
Multi-year enterprise deals increasing |
| NRR/NDR |
119% |
Leading Indicators
| Indicator |
Value |
Signal |
| Revenue Acceleration |
+2.76% |
🟢 Bullish |
| YoY Growth |
+30.7% |
🟢 Bullish |
| Earnings Beat Rate |
75% |
🟢 Bullish |
| Insider Trading |
-$710M net |
🔴 Bearish |
| Composite |
0.2 (Neutral) |
🟡 Neutral |
Valuation
Current Multiples
| Metric |
Current |
5Y Avg |
Industry Avg |
| P/E |
N/A |
N/A |
25x |
| P/S |
44x |
35x |
8x |
| EV/EBITDA |
1,500x |
N/A |
20x |
| P/FCF |
~150x |
N/A |
25x |
Historical Range
| Metric |
Current |
5Y High |
5Y Low |
% of Range |
| P/S |
44x |
100x (2021) |
15x (2022) |
~35% |
| Price |
$167 |
$260 (Nov 2025) |
$40 (2022) |
~58% |
Fair Value Estimate
| Method |
Fair Value |
Upside/Downside |
| Analyst Target |
$227 |
+36% |
| Historical avg P/S |
$180 |
+8% |
| Growth-adjusted |
$200 |
+20% |
My Fair Value: $200 (based on 40x P/S on $5B 2028 revenue, discounted)
Bull Case
Why This Could Work (5 Reasons)
Edge Computing Leadership
- Evidence: $130M Workers contract (largest in history), 5-year deal
- Implication: Platform of choice for next-gen applications
AI Infrastructure Play
- Evidence: Clawdbot AI agent, inference at the edge
- Implication: AI workloads moving to edge = TAM expansion
Zero Trust Momentum
- Evidence: $12.7M 7-year critical infrastructure deal
- Implication: Enterprise security consolidation thesis intact
Profitable Growth at Scale
- Evidence: 30%+ growth, FCF positive, operating leverage
- Implication: Path to sustained profitability clear
R2 Storage Disruption
- Evidence: Zero egress fees disrupting AWS S3
- Implication: New revenue stream, developer loyalty
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| Hit $3B run rate by Q4 2026 |
$220-250 (30-50% upside) |
| AI inference becomes major revenue |
$280+ (new TAM) |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong (5 Risks)
Extreme Valuation
- How it plays out: 44x P/S compresses to 25x industry avg
- Probability: Medium
Hyperscaler Competition
- How it plays out: AWS/Azure bundle CDN free, squeeze margins
- Probability: Medium
Insider Selling Continues
- How it plays out: -$710M net = smart money exiting
- Probability: High (ongoing)
Growth Deceleration
- How it plays out: 30% becomes 20% faster than expected
- Probability: Low-Medium
SBC Dilution
- How it plays out: Stock comp remains ~25% of revenue
- Probability: High (structural)
Thesis Killers
- NRR drops below 100%
- Revenue growth drops below 20%
- Major security breach affecting reputation
- Matthew Prince departure
Downside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| P/S compresses to 25x |
$95-100 (-40%) |
| Growth slows to 20% |
$120-130 (-25%) |
Market-Moving News
Understanding what moves this stock helps identify overreactions vs fundamental shifts.
Historical (What Moved This Stock Before)
| Date |
Event |
Impact |
Market Reaction |
Lesson |
| Nov 2021 |
Peak at $221 |
+400% from IPO |
Overreaction to growth hype |
High P/S + low rates = bubble |
| Dec 2022 |
Bottom at $40 |
-82% from peak |
Overreaction to rate fears |
Quality growth oversold |
| Nov 2025 |
New ATH $260 |
+550% from bottom |
AI/edge enthusiasm |
Rally stretched (now pulling back) |
| Q3 2025 |
$130M contract |
+14% premarket |
Justified - validates Workers |
Large deals = catalysts |
Recent News
| Date |
Headline |
Source |
Impact |
Relevance |
| 2026-02-04 |
Shares Skyrocket |
Yahoo Finance |
🟢 |
Sentiment recovery |
| 2026-01-31 |
Wall Street Bullish |
Yahoo Finance |
🟢 |
Analyst support |
| 2026-01-27 |
Tariff concerns |
Benzinga |
🟡 |
Macro noise |
News Patterns
The market cares about: (1) Large enterprise deals - especially Workers/Zero Trust, (2) Revenue growth acceleration, (3) AI-related announcements. Overreactions occur on macro fears and sector rotation. Stock tends to run ahead of fundamentals on hype, then correct.
| Symbol |
Name |
Relationship |
30D |
Status |
Notes |
| CLOD |
Themes Cloud Computing |
2.3% allocation |
-12% |
🟡 |
Pure cloud play |
| WCLD |
WisdomTree Cloud |
Contains NET |
-15% |
🔴 |
Cloud selloff |
| IGV |
iShares Software |
Contains NET |
-8% |
🟡 |
Broader software |
| ARKW |
ARK Next Gen Internet |
Contains NET |
-10% |
🟡 |
Cathie Wood fund |
Sector Context
The entire cloud/SaaS sector is pulling back. SNOW -26%, MDB -20%, DDOG -13%. NET's pullback is sector-wide, not company-specific. This is a better setup than isolated weakness.
Cross-References (Where This Appears in Our System)
| Location |
File |
Context |
| Watchlists |
holdings-stocks.json |
Core holding |
| Watchlists |
web-cloud.json |
Web infrastructure theme |
| Watchlists |
cloud-etf-holdings.json |
ETF component |
| Watchlists |
ai-infrastructure.json |
Edge AI play |
| Watchlists |
ai-scan.json |
AI universe |
| Holdings |
holdings/stocks/2026-02-04-stocks.md |
+49% total, $25.5K position |
| Candidates |
candidates/web-cloud/2026-02-04-web-cloud.md |
Web infrastructure theme |
| Actions |
actions/2026-02-04-actions.md |
Stop-loss at $162 |
Discovered during research - tickers that should be tracked in our system.
| Ticker |
Why Related |
Suggested Placement |
Priority |
Notes |
| AKAM |
CDN competitor |
candidates/web-cloud/ |
🟢 |
Relative strength |
| FSLY |
CDN competitor |
candidates/web-cloud/ |
🟡 |
Speculative |
| ZS |
Zero Trust competitor |
watchlists/cybersecurity |
🟢 |
Add watchlist |
| SNOW |
Data cloud (Workers competitor) |
candidates/web-cloud/ |
🟢 |
RSI 22 entry |
| CRWD |
Security adjacent |
watchlists/cybersecurity |
🟡 |
Different focus |
Catalysts & Timing
Upcoming Catalysts
| Date |
Event |
Impact |
Watch For |
| ~Feb 2026 |
Q4 2025 Earnings |
🔥 |
Revenue growth, large deal announcements |
| 2026 |
$3B run rate target |
🟢 |
Progress toward Q4 2026 goal |
| 2026 |
Developer Week |
🟢 |
Workers/AI announcements |
Key Dates
| Event |
Frequency |
Next Date |
| Earnings |
Quarterly |
~Feb 2026 |
| Birthday Week |
Annual |
Sep 2026 |
| Developer Week |
Annual |
~May 2026 |
Entry Strategy
Position Sizing
| Conviction |
Allocation |
| Speculative |
0% (research only) |
| Low |
1-2% |
| Medium |
3-5% |
| High |
5-10% |
My conviction: High
Current allocation: ~15% (core position)
Target allocation: 10-15% (maintain)
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$155 - $175 (current) |
| Current position |
~$25.5K |
| Add on |
RSI <30 or successful earnings |
| Full position at |
Already full |
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$160 |
Recent low |
| Support 2 |
$150 |
Major support |
| Resistance |
$200 |
Psychological level |
| 52-week high |
$260 |
Nov 2025 |
| 52-week low |
$85 |
Feb 2025 |
Research Checklist
Fundamentals
- Read most recent 10-K/10-Q
- Listen to last 2 earnings calls
- Review investor presentations
- Understand revenue drivers
Competitive
- Map competitive landscape
- Assess moat durability
- Check customer reviews/NPS
Management
- Research CEO/CFO background
- Check insider ownership
- Review capital allocation history
Valuation
- Review historical multiples
- Compare to peers
- Identify entry/exit zones
Risk
- Write bear case
- Identify thesis-killers
- Set stop-loss level
Sources
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-04 |
Created comprehensive deep dive |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| 119% NRR despite macro pressure |
Customer stickiness validated |
| $130M Workers contract |
Platform validation, not just CDN |
| -$710M insider selling |
Smart money taking profits (caution) |
| 30%+ growth at $2B+ scale |
Rare - most decelerate earlier |
| Sector-wide pullback |
NET not alone, better setup |
Open Questions
- When does insider selling normalize?
- Can Workers/R2 become >50% of revenue?
- Will hyperscalers bundle aggressively?
- What's the path to GAAP profitability with SBC?
Mistakes (If Applicable)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Didn't trim at $260 ATH |
Take some profits on parabolic moves |
| Underweighted earlier |
Quality growth at scale is rare |