Price Data
| Metric |
Value |
Change from 02/04 |
| Current Price |
$144.09 |
+$2.33 (+1.6%) |
| RSI |
35.4 |
Was 23 (significant improvement) |
| SMA20 |
$159.92 |
Price 9.9% below SMA |
| 30D Change |
-18% |
Stabilizing |
| 52-Week High |
$207.52 |
-30.6% from highs |
Update from 02/04: RSI recovered from extreme oversold 23 to 35. Price up slightly from $141.76 to $144.09. The worst of the selloff appears behind us, though still well below SMA20.
Company Overview
| Platform |
Customer |
Purpose |
| Gotham |
Government/Defense |
Intelligence, counter-terrorism, military ops |
| Foundry |
Enterprise |
Data integration, operations, supply chain |
| AIP |
Both |
AI/LLM deployment on enterprise data - KEY GROWTH DRIVER |
| Apollo |
Both |
Continuous delivery infrastructure |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth (Q4 2025) |
Notes |
| US Government |
~40% |
+66% YoY |
$10B Army contract |
| US Commercial |
~35% |
+121% YoY |
AIP adoption driving acceleration |
| International |
~25% |
+20% YoY |
NATO allies, UK MoD |
Financials & Leading Indicators
| Indicator |
Value |
Signal |
| Revenue |
$4.48B |
📈 |
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+63% |
🟢 Accelerating |
| Revenue Acceleration |
+4.11% |
🟢 Bullish |
| Earnings Beat Rate |
100% |
🟢🟢 STRONG |
| FCF Margin |
~25%+ |
🟢 Strong |
| Insider Trading |
-$4.7B net |
🟡 SBC-driven |
| Composite |
0.7 |
🟢 Bullish |
2026 Guidance
| Metric |
Guidance |
vs Consensus |
| FY2026 Revenue |
$7.18B - $7.20B |
Beat ($6.22B expected) |
| YoY Growth |
+61% |
Accelerating |
Valuation
| Metric |
Current |
Context |
| P/S |
~108x |
98th percentile |
| P/E (forward) |
~175x |
Extreme |
| Rule of 40 |
~88 |
Exceptional (63% growth + 25% FCF) |
Assessment: Valuation still extreme, but justified by quality metrics. Any growth deceleration would compress multiples severely (see 2022: -85%).
Bull Case
| Factor |
Evidence |
| AIP is transformational |
US commercial +121% YoY |
| 100% earnings beat rate |
Consistent under-promise, over-deliver |
| Government moat durable |
$10B Army, $448M Navy contracts |
| Rule of 40 = 88 |
Best-in-class efficiency |
| RSI recovering |
23 to 35, worst behind |
Bear Case
| Factor |
Evidence |
| Extreme valuation |
108x P/S, any miss = pain |
| Insider selling |
-$4.7B net (SBC-driven but massive) |
| Competition |
Snowflake, Databricks, hyperscalers |
| Karp compensation |
Highest-paid CEO controversy |
| Growth decel risk |
63% to 30% = 50%+ drop |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-03 |
Created initial deep dive. -15% pullback. |
| 2026-02-04 |
Full refresh. Added management, valuation, news. RSI 23 extreme oversold. |
| 2026-02-09 |
Refreshed. RSI recovered 23 to 35. Price $144 (+1.6%). Stabilizing. |
The Gold
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI recovered from 23 to 35 |
Worst of selloff likely over |
| US Commercial +121% YoY |
AIP demand is real, not hype |
| 100% earnings beat rate |
Management reliable |
| P/S 108x still extreme |
Valuation compression risk remains |
| Sector-wide recovery |
Not PLTR-specific, rising tide |
Conviction Path
| To Increase |
To Decrease |
| 2+ quarters 50%+ commercial growth |
Commercial growth < 30% |
| Major enterprise wins |
Key customer churn |
| SBC reduction |
More dilution |
| Pullback to $115-130 |
Run to $200 without fundamentals |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.