Price Data
| Metric |
Value |
Change from 02/05 |
| Current Price |
$210.10 |
-$12.59 (-5.7%) |
| RSI |
31.7 |
Was 36 |
| SMA20 |
$235.18 |
Price 10.7% below SMA |
| 30D Change |
-10.6% |
Deepening pullback |
| 52-Week High |
$254.00 |
-17.3% from highs |
| 52-Week Low |
$161.38 |
+30.2% above |
Update from 02/05: Price dropped from $222.69 to $210.10, RSI now 32 (was 36). Now IN the entry zone. We added a paper position at $210.10 in claude-trader.
Company Overview
Business Model
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth (Q3 2025) |
Notes |
| Retail (N. America + International) |
~74% |
+11% YoY |
E-commerce, Prime, physical stores |
| AWS (Cloud) |
~17% |
+20% YoY |
Cloud computing, infrastructure, AI |
| Advertising |
~9% |
+24% YoY |
Fastest growing, highest margin new business |
Competitive Advantages (Moat)
| Moat Type |
Description |
| Scale |
Massive logistics network, 1.5M+ employees |
| Network Effects |
Marketplace flywheel: more sellers, more selection, more buyers |
| Switching Costs |
AWS enterprise contracts, Prime membership stickiness |
| Data |
Customer data advantage across retail, cloud, streaming |
| Distribution |
Same-day/next-day delivery infrastructure |
Management
| Role |
Name |
Since |
Background |
| CEO |
Andy Jassy |
July 2021 |
Harvard MBA, founded AWS |
| CFO |
Brian Olsavsky |
2015 |
20+ years at Amazon |
| New Shadow |
Dharmesh Mehta |
March 2026 |
VP Worldwide Selling Partner Services |
Financials & Leading Indicators
| Indicator |
Value |
Signal |
| Revenue Acceleration |
-0.30% |
🟡 Flat |
| YoY Revenue Growth |
+13.4% |
Solid at scale |
| Earnings Beat Rate |
100% |
🟢🟢 STRONG |
| Insider Activity |
0 buys / 100 sells |
🔴 Bearish |
| Net Insider Value |
-$10.9B |
Heavy selling |
| Composite Score |
0.1 |
🟡 Neutral |
Valuation
| Metric |
Current |
5Y Avg |
Sector Avg |
| P/E (Trailing) |
~31x |
~60x |
~25x |
| P/E (Forward) |
~26x |
— |
— |
| P/S Ratio |
~3.6x |
~3.5x |
~2x |
| EV/EBITDA |
~17x |
~25x |
~15x |
Assessment: More attractive at $210 than $223. Forward P/E ~26x reasonable for quality.
Bull Case
| Factor |
Evidence |
| AWS Dominance |
20% growth, $11.4B quarterly profit, AI workloads accelerating |
| Advertising Flywheel |
+24% growth, highest margin business |
| Consistent Execution |
100% earnings beat rate |
| AI Positioning |
$75B+ capex, custom chips (Trainium, Inferentia), Bedrock |
| Entry Zone |
RSI 32, at entry zone $210, better risk/reward than 02/05 |
Bear Case
| Factor |
Evidence |
| Massive Insider Selling |
-$10.9B net, zero buying |
| Revenue Deceleration |
-0.30% acceleration |
| AWS Competition |
Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud gaining share |
| Regulatory Risk |
FTC scrutiny, antitrust concerns |
| Capital Intensity |
$125B planned capex in 2025 |
Entry Strategy
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Current |
$210.10 |
IN entry zone |
| Support 1 |
$205 |
Entry zone bottom |
| Support 2 |
$200 |
Psychological level |
| Support 3 |
$190 |
Stop-loss level |
| Resistance |
$235 |
SMA20 overhead |
| Target |
$290 |
ATH area |
Entry Triggers
- RSI < 35 (now 32)
- Price in entry zone ($205-215)
- Insider selling slowdown
- AWS beat on next earnings
Paper Trade Activity
| Strategy |
Action |
Entry |
Shares |
Value |
| claude-trader |
BUY 02/09 |
$210.10 |
9 |
$1,891 |
| bench-signals |
Signal tracked |
$210.10 |
~5 |
$1,000 |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-05 |
Created deep dive. RSI 36, $222.69. Not yet in entry zone. |
| 2026-02-09 |
Refreshed. Price dropped to $210.10 (RSI 32). Now IN entry zone. Bought in claude-trader at $210.10. |
| 2026-02-11 |
Refreshed. Price still $210.10, RSI 32. Holding in entry zone. SaaS/cloud sector massacre deepening (CRM RSI 18, NOW RSI 24) — AMZN relatively stable. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Now IN entry zone at $210 |
Risk/reward improved significantly |
| 100% earnings beat rate |
Management under-promises, over-delivers |
| -$10.9B insider selling |
Still the main red flag |
| AWS $11.4B/quarter profit |
Cloud is the thesis, not retail |
| RSI 32 approaching extreme |
Mean reversion likely |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.