Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| BE |
$156 |
0% |
+3.5% |
+13.6% |
+22.7% |
-12% |
54 |
🟢 Neutral |
🔒 Hold |
Legend
- RSI
↓ = Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunity
- RSI
↑ = Overbought (>70) - FOMO warning, may pullback
- 52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)
Company Overview
One-Liner
Designs, manufactures, and sells solid-oxide fuel cell systems that provide 24/7 on-site power generation for data centers, commercial buildings, and utilities — the only fuel cell company with proven hyperscaler deployments.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Bloom Energy Servers (solid oxide fuel cells), installation services, maintenance contracts, hydrogen electrolyzers |
| Who pays |
Data center operators (CoreWeave, Oracle, Equinix), utilities (AEP), commercial/industrial enterprises, governments |
| Revenue model |
Product sales (73%), service/maintenance (15%), installation (9%), electricity (3%) |
| How sticky |
High — fuel cells have 20+ year lifespans, long-term service contracts, embedded in critical power infrastructure |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Product |
73% |
+57% YoY |
Core fuel cell server sales; driving data center growth |
| Service |
15% |
Steady |
Recurring maintenance contracts on installed base |
| Installation |
9% |
Growing |
Tied to product deployments; higher with data center deals |
| Electricity |
3% |
Declining share |
Legacy PPA model; shrinking as product sales dominate |
Geographic Mix
| Region |
Revenue % |
Notes |
| US |
~70% |
Data center, commercial, government |
| International |
~30% |
South Korea (SK Group partnership), Europe, India |
Competitive Analysis
Industry Position
| Question |
Answer |
| Market share |
Leading independent fuel cell provider for data centers; ~20% of stationary fuel cell market |
| Market size (TAM) |
Fuel cell market: $18.2B by 2030 (26.3% CAGR); Data center power: $50B+ TAM |
| Growth rate |
26.3% CAGR fuel cell market; Bloom guiding 55%+ revenue growth FY26 |
| Key competitors |
Plug Power (PLUG), FuelCell Energy (FCEL), Cummins hydrogen, traditional gas turbines, nuclear (SMR, OKLO, CEG) |
| Position |
Leader in solid oxide fuel cells; only fuel cell company with hyperscaler data center wins |
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🔴 |
No network effects — each installation is independent |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
20+ year fuel cell lifespan, integrated into facility design, long-term service contracts |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Proprietary solid oxide technology; Fremont manufacturing scale (1GW, expanding to 2GW by Dec 2026) |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
200+ patents on solid oxide fuel cell tech; proven track record with hyperscalers (Oracle 90-day deploy) |
| Efficient scale |
🟡 |
Small company (2,214 employees, $2B revenue) in massive energy market; scale building rapidly |
Moat Assessment
Moat Width: Narrow
Moat Trend: Widening (data center wins expanding moat rapidly)
Summary:
Bloom has a narrow but widening moat based on proprietary solid oxide technology, 200+ patents, and proven speed-to-deploy for hyperscaler data centers. The 90-day Oracle deployment vs. years for traditional grid power is the key differentiator. Risk is that larger energy companies (GE Vernova, Cummins) or nuclear (CEG, SMR) could erode this advantage at scale.
Management Assessment
Leadership
| Role |
Name |
Since |
Background |
Notes |
| CEO & Chairman |
KR Sridhar, PhD |
Founder (2001) |
Director of Space Technologies Lab at U of Arizona; PhD Mechanical Engineering, UIUC; NAE inducted 2016 |
Visionary founder; NASA Mars mission fuel cell researcher turned entrepreneur |
| CFO & EVP |
Daniel Berenbaum |
2023 |
30+ years finance; ex-CFO National Instruments, Micron Technology, GlobalFoundries |
Semiconductor-caliber CFO for manufacturing scale-up |
| COO |
Sharelynn Moore |
Recent |
Ex-Micron Technology executive |
Semiconductor ops background; key for manufacturing scale |
Founder Involvement
| Question |
Answer |
| Founder-led? |
Yes — KR Sridhar still CEO and Chairman |
| Founder ownership |
Significant; insider sales noted ($324M net) but typical for founder liquidity |
| Skin in the game |
Strong — founder-led since 2001, 24+ years building company |
Capital Allocation
| Metric |
Track Record |
| M&A discipline |
Conservative (organic growth focused; no major acquisitions) |
| Buyback timing |
N/A (not profitable long enough for buybacks) |
| R&D investment |
High (solid oxide tech, hydrogen electrolyzers, manufacturing automation) |
| Debt management |
Moderate ($1.75B convertible notes offering Feb 2026 to fund growth; total debt rising) |
Red Flags
- Insider selling — $324M net insider sales (bearish signal per data); typical for founder/exec liquidity at 291% stock gains
- High turnover in key roles — None; stable leadership
- Related party transactions — None flagged
- Aggressive accounting — None; GAAP reporting
- $1.75B convertible note offering (Feb 2026) — dilution risk but funds capacity expansion
Financials
Key Metrics
| Metric |
Current (FY25) |
1Y Ago (FY24) |
3Y Ago (FY22) |
Trend |
| Revenue |
$2.02B |
$1.34B |
$1.20B |
📈 |
| Revenue Growth YoY |
36% |
12% |
15% |
📈 Accelerating |
| Gross Margin |
~28% (GAAP), ~32% guided FY26 |
~24% |
~18% |
📈 |
| Operating Margin |
~2% (turning positive) |
-8% |
-15% |
📈 |
| FCF Margin |
~Low single digits |
Negative |
Negative |
📈 Turning corner |
| Net Debt/EBITDA |
High (low EBITDA, rising debt) |
N/A (negative EBITDA) |
N/A |
🟡 |
Quality Checks
| Check |
Status |
Notes |
| FCF positive? |
🟡 |
Guided $200M CFO in FY26; first meaningful positive FCF year |
| Profitable? |
🟡 |
Turning profitable — $425-475M non-GAAP operating income guided FY26 |
| Debt manageable? |
🟡 |
$1.75B convertible notes issued Feb 2026; funding growth, not distress |
| Cash runway |
Sufficient |
Convertible notes + improving ops fund 2GW expansion |
Revenue Quality
| Factor |
Assessment |
| Recurring % |
~15% (service contracts); growing as installed base expands |
| Customer concentration |
Moderate — hyperscaler concentration (CoreWeave, Oracle, AEP top customers) |
| Contract length |
Long-term: AEP multi-year up to 1GW; Brookfield $5B partnership |
| NRR/NDR |
N/A (not SaaS); backlog growth 140% YoY proxy for demand expansion |
Leading Indicators
| Indicator |
Value |
Signal |
| Revenue Acceleration |
+20.5% |
🟢 Strong acceleration |
| YoY Growth |
+35.9% |
🟢 High growth |
| Earnings Beat Rate |
100% |
🟢 Perfect |
| Insider Trading |
-$324M net sales |
🟡 Bearish signal (but context: founder liquidity after 291% stock gain) |
| Composite |
0.70 (Bullish) |
🟢 Bullish |
Valuation
Current Multiples
| Metric |
Current |
Historical Avg |
Industry Avg |
| P/S (TTM) |
17.2x |
5x (2022-2024 range) |
4.6x |
| P/S (Forward FY26) |
10.7x |
N/A |
4.6x |
| EV/EBITDA |
240x |
N/A (negative EBITDA historically) |
15x |
| P/B |
35.7x |
5x |
3x |
Historical Range
| Metric |
Current |
3Y High |
3Y Low |
% of Range |
| P/S (TTM) |
17.2x |
17.2x |
1.5x |
100% (at top) |
| Market Cap |
$41.7B |
$41.7B |
$2.5B |
Near highs |
Fair Value Estimate
| Method |
Fair Value |
Upside/Downside |
| Morningstar FV (raised 43%) |
~$120 |
-23% (overvalued) |
| Forward P/S 10x on $3.2B FY26 rev |
$119 |
-24% (overvalued) |
| Analyst Buy target ($207) |
$207 |
+33% (if execution continues) |
Fair Value: $140-160 range (based on forward P/S of 10-12x on $3.2B FY26 revenue, adjusted for growth). Currently at fair-to-slightly-stretched. Execution-dependent.
Bull Case
Why This Could Work (5 Reasons)
AI data center power demand is explosive and Bloom is uniquely positioned
- Evidence: Hyperscalers (Oracle, CoreWeave, Equinix) chose Bloom for speed — 90-day fuel cell deploy vs. 3-5 years for grid power
- Implication: Data center power bottleneck creates massive demand for on-site generation
Backlog surged 140% YoY to $6B
- Evidence: Product backlog provides 2+ years of revenue visibility at current run rates
- Implication: Revenue trajectory de-risked through 2027+
Brookfield $5B partnership validates at institutional scale
- Evidence: Brookfield Asset Management committed $5B to build AI factories with Bloom servers
- Implication: Largest alternative asset manager betting on Bloom = institutional validation
Manufacturing capacity doubling to 2GW by Dec 2026
- Evidence: Fremont facility expanding from 1GW to 2GW capacity
- Implication: Revenue capacity doubles; operating leverage improves margins
FY26 guidance: $3.1-3.3B revenue (+55% YoY), $425-475M non-GAAP operating income
- Evidence: Company-issued guidance with 14% operating margins
- Implication: Transition from loss-making to solidly profitable in one year
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| FY26 revenue exceeds $3.3B + margins beat |
$200+ (re-rate on profitability proof) |
| New hyperscaler deal (MSFT, AMZN, META) |
$220+ (TAM expansion) |
| Hydrogen economy accelerates (electrolyzers) |
$250+ (second growth vector) |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong (5 Risks)
Valuation is extreme — 17x P/S, 240x EV/EBITDA, 36x P/B
- How it plays out: Any execution miss triggers 30-50% correction; stock has had 76 moves >5% in past year
- Probability: Medium-High
Natural gas dependency and regulatory risk
- How it plays out: Fuel cells primarily run on natural gas; ESG-focused investors may pressure customers away from non-renewable power
- Probability: Medium
Competition from nuclear and grid improvements
- How it plays out: CEG, SMR, OKLO nuclear solutions scale up; utility grid capacity catches up, reducing urgency for on-site generation
- Probability: Medium (long-term)
Customer concentration — hyperscaler dependency
- How it plays out: Top 3-5 customers drive majority of backlog; loss of one major customer devastates growth
- Probability: Low-Medium
$1.75B convertible note dilution + insider selling
- How it plays out: Conversion of notes dilutes shareholders 10-15%; insiders sold $324M — signals caution at these levels
- Probability: High (dilution certain if stock stays elevated)
Thesis Killers
- FY26 revenue comes in below $2.8B (miss by >10%)
- Major hyperscaler cancels or delays orders
- Natural gas price spike erodes fuel cell economics vs. alternatives
- Manufacturing scale-up to 2GW delayed beyond mid-2027
Downside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| Revenue miss + margin disappointment |
$100 (-36%, P/S compresses to 8x) |
| Hyperscaler deal cancellation |
$80 (-49%) |
| Broad energy/AI selloff + dilution fears |
$90 (-42%) |
Market-Moving News
Historical (What Moved This Stock Before)
| Date |
Event |
Impact |
Market Reaction |
Lesson |
| 2024-07 |
CoreWeave becomes first AI data center partner |
+25% |
Justified — started AI power thesis |
First-mover in data center fuel cells = thesis creator |
| 2025-Q3 |
AEP 1GW multi-year framework deal |
+40% |
Justified — massive scale validation |
Utility-scale deals move the stock violently |
| 2025-Q4 |
Brookfield $5B AI factory partnership |
+30% |
Justified — institutional-scale validation |
Big-name partners drive re-rating |
| 2025 Full Year |
Stock surges 291% |
Full-year run |
Massive re-rating on AI power thesis |
Momentum-driven; pullbacks are sharp |
| 2026-01 |
Stock rallies another 75% in January |
+75% |
Momentum + FOMO |
Extended moves invite sharp corrections |
| 2026-02 |
$1.75B convertible note offering |
-5% initially |
Mixed — dilutive but funds growth |
Capital raises cause short-term pain |
Recent News
| Date |
Headline |
Source |
Impact |
Relevance |
| 2026-02-11 |
$1.75B convertible senior notes offering |
Stock Titan |
🟡 |
Dilutive but funds 2GW expansion |
| 2026-02-10 |
Bloom Energy blossoms on accelerating outlook |
Investing.com |
🟢 |
Analyst upgrade cycle continues |
| 2026-02-09 |
Jefferies raises price target |
Robinhood |
🟢 |
Street still bullish |
| 2026-02-08 |
Initiated with Buy rating, $207 target |
Yahoo Finance |
🟢 |
New coverage adds institutional attention |
| 2026-02-06 |
Stock popped on fuel cell market reaching $18.2B by 2030 |
Motley Fool |
🟢 |
TAM expansion narrative |
News Patterns
Bloom Energy is a momentum-driven stock with extreme volatility (76 moves >5% in past year). Big deals (hyperscaler partnerships, utility frameworks) cause 20-40% pops. Capital raises and misses cause 15-30% drops. News flow is dominated by AI data center power demand narrative. The stock overreacts in both directions.
| Symbol |
Name |
Relationship |
Weight |
Status |
Notes |
| ICLN |
iShares Global Clean Energy |
Contains BE |
~3-5% |
🟢 |
Broad clean energy |
| QCLN |
First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge |
Contains BE |
~2-4% |
🟢 |
Clean energy tech |
| BEG |
Leverage Shares 2x Long BE |
Single-stock leveraged |
100% |
🔴 Speculative |
2x bull exposure |
| BEX |
Tradr 2x Long BE Daily |
Single-stock leveraged |
100% |
🔴 Speculative |
2x bull exposure |
| BEZ |
Tradr 2x Short BE Daily |
Single-stock inverse |
100% |
🔴 Speculative |
Launched Feb 11, 2026 |
Sector Context
Energy sector broadly strong (XLE RSI 79, USO RSI 65). Data center power names have split: nuclear (CEG) pulled back to RSI 35, while fuel cells (BE) holding at RSI 54. The AI power demand narrative remains intact but valuations vary widely. BE is the most expensive energy name we track. GEV (GE Vernova) also extended at RSI 74.
Cross-References (Where This Appears in Our System)
| Location |
File |
Context |
| Holdings |
holdings/stocks/2026-02-11-stocks.md |
Held at $164.96 entry, -7.2%, $140 stop, $215 target, "Hold cautiously" |
| Actions |
actions/2026-02-11-actions.md |
Priority #3: HOLD BE $153 RSI 51; above $140 stop; hold cautiously |
| Candidates |
candidates/energy/2026-02-11-energy.md |
NOT listed in current energy candidates (only CEG, GEV, XLE, USO, NEE shown) |
| Watchlists |
holdings-stocks.json, energy.json, ai-scan.json, insider-universe.json |
Tracked in 4 watchlists |
| Historical |
candidates/energy/_archive/2026-02-05-energy.md |
Stop-loss nearly hit at $136.60 (-17.2%) on Feb 5; recovered since |
| Ticker |
Why Related |
Suggested Placement |
Priority |
Notes |
| PLUG |
Direct competitor (PEM fuel cells) |
Already in energy watchlist |
🟡 |
Different tech (PEM vs solid oxide); struggling financially |
| FCEL |
Direct competitor (molten carbonate) |
Already in energy watchlist |
🟡 |
Much smaller; different fuel cell chemistry |
| CEG |
Nuclear competitor for data center power |
Already tracked (energy candidates) |
🟢 |
RSI 35, entry zone — alternative AI power play |
| SMR |
Nuclear competitor (NuScale small modular) |
Already in ai-scan |
🟡 |
Pre-revenue; longer timeline than Bloom |
| OKLO |
Nuclear competitor (Sam Altman-backed) |
Already in ai-scan |
🟡 |
Pre-revenue; OpenAI connection interesting |
| GEV |
GE Vernova — gas turbine competitor |
Already tracked (energy candidates) |
🟡 |
Larger scale competitor; RSI 74 extended |
| VST |
Vistra Energy — data center power |
Already in ai-scan |
🟡 |
Utility with data center exposure |
Catalysts & Timing
Upcoming Catalysts
| Date |
Event |
Impact |
Watch For |
| 2026-Q1 (est) |
Q4 FY25 / Q1 FY26 Earnings |
🟢 |
Revenue beat, margin improvement, backlog growth |
| 2026-H1 |
2GW manufacturing milestone progress |
🟢 |
On track for Dec 2026 target? |
| 2026-H2 |
New hyperscaler deal announcements |
🟢 |
MSFT, AMZN, META potential customers |
| Ongoing |
Convertible note terms finalization |
🟡 |
Conversion price, dilution impact |
| Ongoing |
Natural gas price trends |
🟡 |
Fuel cost economics vs. renewables/nuclear |
Key Dates
| Event |
Frequency |
Next Date |
| Earnings |
Quarterly |
~March 2026 (est) |
| Analyst Day |
Annual |
TBD |
| 2GW capacity target |
Milestone |
Dec 2026 |
Entry Strategy
Position Sizing
| Conviction |
Allocation |
| Speculative |
0% (research only) |
| Low |
1-2% |
| Medium |
3-5% |
| High |
5-10% |
My conviction: Medium
Target allocation: 2-3% (high volatility warrants smaller sizing)
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$148 - $156 (currently in zone for adds) |
| Starter position |
Already holding at $164.96 |
| Add on |
Meaningful dips (RSI < 35) or earnings beats with margin expansion |
| Full position at |
Profitability proof (non-GAAP operating income > $100M/quarter) |
| Holding period |
3-5 years — no stop-losses; ride volatility |
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$140 |
Stop-loss level; Jan 2026 low area |
| Support 2 |
$120 |
Pre-rally breakout zone |
| Resistance |
$170 |
Entry price / recent consolidation high |
| 52-week high |
$176 |
Recent high |
| 52-week low |
$15 |
April 2025 (pre-AI data center thesis) |
Research Checklist
Fundamentals
- Review earnings results — Q3 FY25: $519M revenue, +57% YoY, first operating profit
- Understand revenue drivers — Product sales (73%), data center fuel cells, AI power demand
- Review FY26 guidance — $3.1-3.3B revenue, 14% non-GAAP operating margin, $200M CFO
Competitive
- Map competitive landscape — PLUG, FCEL, nuclear (CEG, SMR, OKLO), gas turbines (GEV)
- Assess moat durability — Narrow, widening; 90-day deploy speed is key differentiator
- Unique advantage — Only fuel cell company with proven hyperscaler data center wins
Management
- Research CEO/CFO background — Founder-led (Sridhar since 2001), strong CFO (Berenbaum ex-Micron/NI)
- Check insider ownership — $324M net sales; elevated but contextual (291% stock gain)
- Capital allocation — $1.75B convertible notes for growth; aggressive but necessary
Valuation
- Review historical multiples — P/S at all-time high (17x); historically 1.5-5x
- Compare to peers — 3x industry avg P/S; priced for perfection
- Identify entry/exit zones — $140 stop, $148-156 entry, $207 target
Risk
- Write bear case — Valuation extreme, gas dependency, competition, dilution
- Identify thesis-killers — Revenue miss >10%, hyperscaler cancellation, gas price spike
- Set stop-loss level — $140 (-10% from entry)
Sources
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-11 |
Created initial deep dive. RSI 54, -12% from highs. Revenue accelerating +20.5%, backlog $6B (+140% YoY). Holding at $165 entry, -7% underwater. $140 stop. Valuation stretched at 17x P/S but growth justifies premium if execution continues. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| 90-day fuel cell deployment vs 3-5 years for grid power |
This is the moat — hyperscalers will pay premium for speed in AI buildout race |
| Backlog $6B (+140% YoY) provides 2+ years revenue visibility |
Revenue trajectory de-risked even if new order pace slows |
| Brookfield $5B partnership = institutional validation at scale |
Smart money backing the thesis; not just retail momentum |
| $1.75B convertible note offering in Feb 2026 |
Company is capitalizing on elevated stock to fund growth; smart but dilutive |
| Stock had 76 moves >5% in past year |
Extreme volatility — position sizing must be smaller than typical hold |
| Feb 5 nearly hit $140 stop-loss at $136.60, then recovered to $156 |
Volatility tests conviction; tight stops get shaken out on this name |
Open Questions
- What is the conversion price on the $1.75B convertible notes? (dilution impact)
- Can Bloom win MSFT, AMZN, or META as data center customers?
- How does the natural gas vs. hydrogen transition timeline affect the thesis?
- Will the 2GW manufacturing expansion hit Dec 2026 target on schedule?
- Is the $140 stop-loss too tight for a stock with this volatility profile?
Mistakes (If Applicable)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Entered at $164.96 near momentum peak |
For high-volatility names, scale in rather than full position at once |
| Feb 5 dip to $136.60 tested conviction |
Long-term hold — no stop-losses; volatility is the price of admission for a 3-5yr compounder |