Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| AMZN |
$210.11 |
+2.6% |
+3.0% |
-9.2% |
-4.8% |
-17.3% |
25↓ |
🟢 Deeply Oversold |
📈 Accumulate |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (02/16)
| Metric |
02/16 |
02/22 |
Change |
| Price |
$198.79 |
$210.11 |
+$11.32 (+5.7%) |
| RSI |
16.7 |
25.3 |
+8.6 (improving) |
| SMA20 |
$227.39 |
$221.65 |
-$5.74 |
| vs SMA |
-12.6% |
-5.2% |
Tightening |
Update from 02/16: Price recovered +5.7% from capitulation low of $198.79 to $210.11. RSI improved from extreme 17 to 25 — recovery underway but still deeply oversold. The 30D change has narrowed from -15% to -9.2%. Thesis unchanged: AWS + advertising momentum intact. Action upgraded from Strong Buy to Accumulate as price is off the absolute floor.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Amazon is the world's largest e-commerce marketplace and cloud provider (AWS), with dominant positions in digital advertising and logistics.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Cloud (AWS), 3rd-party marketplace, advertising, Prime subscriptions, direct retail |
| Who pays |
Consumers (retail, Prime), enterprises (AWS), advertisers (ad platform) |
| Revenue model |
Marketplace fees, AWS recurring, subscription (Prime), advertising CPM/CPC |
| How sticky |
Extremely high — AWS multi-year contracts, Prime ecosystem lock-in, marketplace flywheel |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| AWS |
~17% |
+19% YoY |
Cloud infrastructure, highest margin segment |
| North America Retail |
~46% |
+10% YoY |
Marketplace + direct sales |
| International |
~22% |
+9% YoY |
Growing but lower margin |
| Advertising |
~9% |
+19% YoY |
High-margin, fastest-growing |
| Other (Subscriptions) |
~6% |
+11% YoY |
Prime, digital content |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
More sellers = more buyers = more sellers (marketplace flywheel) |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
AWS: migration cost 12-24 months. Prime: annual subscription habit. |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Unmatched logistics network, AWS scale economies |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Consumer data, AWS ecosystem, logistics patents |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
Largest cloud + largest e-commerce = impossible to replicate economics |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Widening (AI/ML embedded in AWS; advertising monetization accelerating)
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
- AWS re-acceleration — AI workloads driving cloud demand. 19% growth could push to 22%+.
- Advertising flywheel — $60B+ run rate, growing 19% with huge margin expansion runway.
- RSI recovery pattern — Historically, AMZN at RSI < 20 recovers to RSI 50+ within 6-8 weeks.
- Bezos selling is noise — $10.9B in planned diversification, not a signal about business health.
- Margin expansion — Cost cuts + advertising growth driving EBIT margin from 5% to 10%+.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| AWS accelerates to 22%+ growth |
$280 (+33%) — multiple expansion |
| Advertising margin expands |
$300 (+43%) — new earnings power |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
- AWS slowdown — Enterprise cloud budgets tighten in recession.
- Consumer spending recession — Retail revenue pressured.
- Regulatory breakup risk — FTC scrutiny of marketplace/logistics.
- Capex overhang — $100B+ capex plan could compress FCF.
Thesis Killers
- AWS growth drops below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters
- Amazon loses prime subscriber base
- FCF turns negative for 2+ quarters
Entry Strategy
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$195 |
Recent capitulation low |
| Support 2 |
$185 |
Pre-2025 consolidation |
| Resistance 1 |
$221 |
SMA20 |
| Resistance 2 |
$240 |
Aug 2025 resistance |
| 52-week high |
$254.00 |
Jul 2025 |
| 52-week low |
~$158 |
Apr 2025 |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$195 - $215 (current levels) |
| Starter position |
2% of portfolio |
| Add on |
Break above SMA20 ($221) with RSI > 35 |
| Full position at |
RSI > 40 + AWS growth confirmation |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 17 extreme capitulation. -15% 30D. Action: Strong Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price refresh. $210.11 (+5.7% from $198.79 low). RSI improved 17 → 25. 30D -9.2%. Recovery underway. Upgraded action to Accumulate. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 17 on 02/16 = extreme capitulation on zero fundamental change |
Classic overreaction — Bezos selling was noise |
| RSI recovered to 25 by 02/22 (+8.6 pts in 6 days) |
Recovery momentum building |
| Price +5.7% off the $198 low |
Capitulation floor appears to have held |
| 30D change narrowed from -15% to -9.2% |
Selling pressure decelerating |
Open Questions
- When does AWS report next acceleration data?
- Is Bezos selling program fully disclosed / on a schedule?
- How does AMZN's capex cycle affect FCF in 2026?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| None logged yet |
Watch for chasing if RSI overshoots back above 60 quickly |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.