Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| INTU |
$380.55 |
-0.3% |
-4.8% |
-27.5% |
-42.5% |
-52.7% |
17↓ |
🔴 Extreme Capitulation |
✅ Strong Buy |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (02/16)
| Metric |
02/16 |
02/22 |
Change |
| Price |
$399.40 |
$380.55 |
-$18.85 (-4.7%) |
| RSI |
10.6 |
17.6 |
+7.0 (improving but still extreme) |
| SMA20 |
$483.00 |
$452.20 |
-$30.80 (SMA declining) |
| vs SMA |
-17.3% |
-15.9% |
Slight improvement |
Update from 02/16: Price dropped another -4.7% to $380.55. RSI improved from 10.6 to 17.6 — still in extreme territory. The notable concern: despite peak tax season (Feb-Apr is INTU's biggest revenue quarter), the stock is continuing to sell off. This either means the broader market selloff is dominating, or there is concern about IRS Direct File competing with TurboTax. The 3M -42.5% and 52wkHi -52.7% make INTU the most beaten-down name in our universe by far. At $380, it is trading near multi-year lows. The monopoly thesis remains valid — TurboTax processes 40M+ returns annually.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Intuit is the dominant tax software (TurboTax) and SMB accounting (QuickBooks) provider with near-monopoly positions in both markets.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
TurboTax (consumer tax filing), QuickBooks (SMB accounting), Credit Karma (financial products), Mailchimp (marketing) |
| Who pays |
Consumers (tax filing), SMBs (accounting/payroll), financial product seekers (Credit Karma) |
| Revenue model |
Per-return fees (TurboTax), SaaS subscriptions (QuickBooks Online), lead-gen (Credit Karma) |
| How sticky |
Very high — users return to TurboTax annually with prior years' data; QuickBooks embedded in SMB ops |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Small Business (QuickBooks) |
~55% |
+18% YoY |
QuickBooks Online, payroll, payments |
| Consumer (TurboTax) |
~30% |
+8% YoY |
Seasonal Q2 concentration |
| Credit Karma |
~10% |
+20%+ YoY |
Recovering with rate environment |
| ProTax |
~5% |
+5% YoY |
CPA/accountant tools |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Multi-year tax history locked in TurboTax; QuickBooks data migration cost |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
TurboTax brand (#1 in consumer awareness), regulatory knowledge |
| Network effects |
🟡 |
QuickBooks App ecosystem (700+ integrations), accountant network |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Scale across 40M+ annual TurboTax filers |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Stable with AI risk (IRS Direct File, GenAI tax tools) worth monitoring
Key Risk: IRS Direct File
- IRS expanded Direct File program in 2025 to all 50 states
- Currently handles only simple returns (W-2 only, standard deductions)
- INTU's core TurboTax serves complex filers — above Direct File's scope
- Mitigation: TurboTax Live (human expert hybrid) growing rapidly
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
- Tax season catalyst — Feb-Apr is peak revenue quarter. Stock selling off INTO tax season is counterintuitive.
- RSI 17.6 extreme — Historically, INTU at this RSI level snaps back sharply post-tax season.
- QuickBooks AI integration — GenAI bookkeeping assistant could expand SMB TAM.
- Credit Karma recovery — With rates stabilizing, fintech lead-gen recovering.
- 52wkHi -52.7% = generational discount — Trading at 2021 levels on a business that has grown substantially.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| Strong tax season results in May earnings |
$500 (+31%) — re-rating on beat |
| QuickBooks AI drives SMB retention improvements |
$550 (+45%) |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
- IRS Direct File expansion — If Congress funds expansion to complex returns, TurboTax TAM shrinks.
- AI disruption — New AI-native tax tools (H&R Block AI, new entrants) at lower price points.
- Consumer recession — Fewer freelancers/gig workers file self-employed returns.
- Credit Karma headwinds — Fintech slowdown, lower loan origination fees.
Thesis Killers
- TurboTax market share declines >5% in one filing season
- QuickBooks Online net churn goes negative
- IRS Direct File expands to cover Schedule C (self-employed)
Entry Strategy
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$375 |
Recent trading floor |
| Support 2 |
$335 |
Stop-loss zone; 2022 lows |
| Resistance 1 |
$452.20 |
SMA20 |
| Resistance 2 |
$520 |
3-month prior level |
| 52-week high |
$804.44 |
Peaks Jun 2025 |
| 52-week low |
~$340 |
(estimated) |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$370 - $400 |
| Starter |
2-3% of portfolio |
| Add |
Post-tax season if strong filing data (May earnings beat) |
| Full |
RSI > 30 + above SMA confirmation |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 10.6 extreme. $399.40. Action: Strong Buy. Tax season catalyst. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price refresh. $380.55 (-4.7%). RSI 17.6 (improved from 10.6 but still extreme). 7D -4.8%. 30D -27.5%, 3M -42.5%, 52wkHi -52.7%. Selling continuing despite tax season. Maintaining Strong Buy but adding caution note. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| 52wkHi -52.7% |
Most beaten-down name in our coverage; trading at 2021 price levels |
| Price -4.7% since 02/16 despite tax season |
Either market selloff dominating OR IRS Direct File concern growing |
| RSI improved 10.6 → 17.6 |
Worst capitulation phase may be easing |
| 3M -42.5% |
Extreme compression; long-term holders creating exit pressure |
Open Questions
- Is the selloff driven by IRS Direct File fears or macro selling?
- What is TurboTax filing market share trend in 2026 tax season?
- How is Credit Karma performing in Q2 (rate stabilization thesis)?
- When does INTU report Q2 2026 (tax season results)?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| None yet |
Watch for continued deterioration — RSI 17 can go to 10 |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.