Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| NET |
$177.14 |
-8.0% |
-6.5% |
+4.2% |
-5.0% |
-30.1% |
50 |
🟡 Neutral |
🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (02/16)
| Metric |
02/16 |
02/22 |
Change |
| Price |
$195.85 |
$177.14 |
-$18.71 (-9.6%) |
| RSI |
52.9 |
49.8 |
-3.1 (weakening) |
| SMA20 |
$179.81 |
$182.31 |
+$2.50 |
| vs SMA |
+8.9% ABOVE |
-2.8% BELOW |
Reversed — now below SMA |
Update from 02/16: Major reversal. NET was the standout winner on 02/16 — the only SaaS name above SMA (+8.9%). In the 6 days since, price dropped -9.6% from $195.85 to $177.14, and the stock is now BELOW its SMA20. Today's -8.0% single-day drop is notable. The relative strength story has reversed. NET is no longer outperforming peers. 30D is still positive (+4.2%) but the 7D and 1D trend is clearly down. Stop-loss at $162 gives about 8.4% buffer. The core thesis (Cloudflare as the security/network layer for AI-native internet) remains intact.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Cloudflare is a cloud network platform providing CDN, DDoS protection, zero-trust security, and serverless computing at the network edge.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
CDN (content delivery), DDoS protection, Zero Trust (SASE), Workers (serverless), R2 (storage) |
| Who pays |
Enterprise, mid-market, developers globally |
| Revenue model |
Tiered SaaS subscriptions; free tier drives enterprise upsell |
| How sticky |
High — network infrastructure is deeply embedded; Zero Trust requires full deployment |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Large Customers ($100K+) |
Growing |
+27% YoY |
3,000+ large customers; primary growth driver |
| Platform Overall |
100% |
+25% YoY |
~$1.6B run rate |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
300+ POPs globally; more traffic = better routing optimization |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Zero Trust deployment embedded in enterprise security stack |
| Intangible assets |
🟡 |
Edge network technology; Cloudflare Workers developer ecosystem |
| Cost advantages |
🟡 |
Global network amortized over massive user base |
Moat Width: Narrow (widening)
Moat Trend: Widening — AI agent traffic routing, zero-trust security, R2 storage alternatives to S3
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
- AI traffic layer — Every AI agent call goes through the internet. Cloudflare positioned as the "AI routing layer."
- Zero Trust secular tailwind — Enterprises moving away from VPN → zero trust. NET is the best-positioned pure-play.
- Developer platform — Cloudflare Workers/R2/D1 growing as an alternative to AWS Lambda.
- 30D +4.2% — Despite today's selloff, still up over 30 days vs peers all negative.
- $162 stop-loss — Still well-defined risk/reward.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| AI agent traffic becomes significant revenue |
$280 (+58%) |
| Zero Trust deal size expansion continues |
$250 (+41%) |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
- Competition from Zscaler / Palo Alto — Both larger zero trust competitors.
- Growth deceleration — 25% is strong but market priced for 30%+.
- Today's -8.0% signals something — Earnings warning? Macro? Monitor closely.
- Price dropped below SMA — Technical breakdown in previously strongest name.
Thesis Killers
- Net Revenue Retention drops below 115%
- Large customer growth stalls
- Security breach damages brand/trust
Entry Strategy
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$170 |
Round number / prior range floor |
| Support 2 |
$162 |
Stop-loss — critical level |
| Resistance 1 |
$182.31 |
SMA20 — needs to reclaim |
| Resistance 2 |
$200 |
Round number / prior week high |
| 52-week high |
$253.30 |
Jul 2025 |
| 52-week low |
~$60 |
Apr 2025 selloff |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Current hold |
Core position maintained above $162 stop |
| Re-add |
On reclaim of SMA20 ($182) with RSI recovering toward 55 |
| Stop-loss |
$162 — still valid; consider tightening to $165 |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 52.9. $195.85. Only SaaS above SMA (+8.9%). Action: Hold. Strongest in class. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price refresh. $177.14 (-9.6%). RSI 49.8. NOW BELOW SMA. Today -8.0%. Relative strength advantage LOST. Action: Hold with caution. Monitor $162 stop. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Was only SaaS above SMA on 02/16; now below SMA |
Relative strength advantage reversed in 6 days |
| -8.0% today |
Something specific may have triggered this — needs investigation |
| 30D still +4.2% |
Underlying trend still positive vs peers (who are -16% to -27% 30D) |
| Stop at $162 gives 8.4% buffer |
Risk remains defined |
Open Questions
- What caused today's -8.0% single-day drop? Earnings guide? Sector rotation?
- Is NET being sold by funds rotating out of tech broadly?
- Is the zero trust / SASE competitive landscape shifting?
- Should stop be tightened from $162 to $165 given new information?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Assuming relative strength persists |
Market selloffs eventually hit even the strongest names |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.