Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| PLTR |
$135.24 |
+0.3% |
-0.3% |
-18.2% |
-12.7% |
-34.7% |
42 |
🟡 Neutral/Recovering |
🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (02/16)
| Metric |
02/16 |
02/22 |
Change |
| Price |
$131.41 |
$135.24 |
+$3.83 (+2.9%) |
| RSI |
29.7 |
42.2 |
+12.5 (significant improvement) |
| SMA20 |
$150.95 |
$144.34 |
-$6.61 (SMA declining toward price) |
| vs SMA |
-12.9% |
-6.3% |
Gap halved — rapid convergence |
Update from 02/16: PLTR shows the most significant RSI improvement in our coverage — +12.5 points from 29.7 to 42.2 in 6 days. Price also up +2.9%. The SMA gap has halved from -12.9% to -6.3% as the SMA declines toward price. This is the technical pattern you want to see for recovery. However, Karp's $4.7B insider selling continues to be a psychological overhang. The core thesis — US commercial AIP revenue growing 121% YoY — remains the most compelling growth story in government/enterprise AI.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Palantir builds AI and data integration platforms for government intelligence (Gotham), enterprise operations (Foundry), and commercial AI deployment (AIP).
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Gotham (US government), Foundry (enterprise), AIP (AI Platform for commercial), TITAN (defense) |
| Who pays |
US government agencies (DoD, IC), US commercial enterprises, international governments |
| Revenue model |
Long-term contracts (government), subscription + expansion (commercial) |
| How sticky |
Extremely high (government: classified data integration); High (commercial: AIP embedded in ops) |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| US Government |
~40% |
+45% YoY |
DoD, IC, TITAN military AI |
| US Commercial |
~35% |
+121% YoY |
AIP adoption; fastest growing |
| International Government |
~15% |
+26% YoY |
NATO allies, foreign governments |
| International Commercial |
~10% |
+5% YoY |
Slower, less AIP traction |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Government: 10+ years of classified data integration. Commercial: AIP embedded in workflows. |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Security clearances (rare), government trust built over 20+ years |
| Network effects |
🟡 |
More AIP customers = better AI models = better product |
| Cost advantages |
🔴 |
Premium pricing; not a cost leader |
Moat Width: Government = Wide; Commercial = Narrow (but widening with AIP)
Moat Trend: Widening — AIP creating a new commercial moat as enterprises become dependent
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
- US Commercial AIP +121% YoY — AI adoption in enterprises is accelerating, and PLTR is the pick-and-shovel.
- Government AI tailwind — TITAN military AI contract, DoD digital modernization. No civilian company has this access.
- RSI recovery 30 → 42 — Technical confirmation that the selloff pressure is easing.
- SMA gap halving — From -12.9% to -6.3% in 6 days. Price will meet SMA soon.
- NATO ally expansion — Defense spending increases = more international government contracts.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| AIP commercial growth sustains 100%+ for 2 more quarters |
$200 (+48%) |
| TITAN military contract expands to allies |
$220 (+63%) |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
- Karp $4.7B insider selling — Consistent, large selling by CEO. Even if routine compensation structure, the signal is concerning at face value.
- US commercial growth decelerates — 121% is unsustainable; even 60% growth could disappoint a premium multiple.
- Government contract delays — Budget continuing resolutions slow new awards.
- Valuation premium — Even at RSI 42, PLTR trades at 40x+ revenue. Any miss = large selloff.
Thesis Killers
- US Commercial growth drops below 50% for 2 consecutive quarters
- Government loses access due to DOGE-driven contract reviews
- Karp sells $5B+ in a single quarter (acceleration of selling)
Entry Strategy
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$125 |
Entry zone floor |
| Support 2 |
$110 |
Stop-loss |
| Resistance 1 |
$144.34 |
SMA20 — key level to reclaim |
| Resistance 2 |
$165 |
30D ago price |
| 52-week high |
$207.18 |
Jan 2026 |
| 52-week low |
~$20 |
Apr 2025 (early AI selloff) |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Current |
Hold core position; in entry zone |
| Add |
On SMA20 reclaim ($144) with RSI > 50 |
| Stop |
$110 (-19% from current) |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 29.7. $131.41. Karp $4.7B selling. Action: Hold. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price refresh. $135.24 (+2.9%). RSI 42.2 (largest RSI improvement in coverage: +12.5). SMA gap halved. 30D -18.2%, 3M -12.7%, 52wkHi -34.7%. Recovery underway. Hold. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Largest RSI improvement in coverage (+12.5 pts) |
PLTR recovery may lead peers — momentum shifting |
| SMA gap halved from -12.9% to -6.3% |
Price will meet declining SMA within 1-2 weeks |
| US Commercial +121% YoY — best growth in enterprise AI |
Thesis is intact; selloff was technical, not fundamental |
| Price recovered above 7D and 1D flat |
Stabilization confirmed |
Open Questions
- What is the schedule of Karp's 10b5-1 selling plan?
- Has US Commercial growth rate been confirmed for Q4 2025?
- Is TITAN contract fully awarded or still in proposal?
- What are the DOGE impacts on government contract renewals?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Conflating Karp routine selling with fundamental concern |
Routine comp structure selling is not the same as panic selling |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.