Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| INTU |
$389.33 |
+2.1% |
+2.7% |
-30.7% |
— |
-30.7% |
35 |
🟡 Approaching Neutral |
📈 Accumulate |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (02/22)
| Metric |
02/22 |
02/26 |
Change |
| Price |
$380.55 |
$389.33 |
+$8.78 (+2.3%) |
| RSI |
17.6 |
34.6 |
+17.0 (significant improvement) |
| SMA20 |
$452.20 |
$416.15 |
-$36.05 (SMA declining fast) |
| vs SMA |
-15.9% |
-6.5% |
Rapidly tightening |
Update from 02/22: RSI recovered dramatically from 17.6 to 34.6 (+17 points) — the largest RSI improvement in our coverage this week. Price also moved up modestly from $380.55 to $389.33 (+2.3%). Most importantly, the SMA20 has declined sharply from $452 to $416 — the gap vs price has tightened from -15.9% to -6.5%. This means price is converging with the falling SMA, which is technically constructive. The 30D worsened slightly (from -27.5% to -30.7%) due to base effect — the big drop happened 30+ days ago and is now cycling in. Still in the entry zone. Tax season is the fundamental catalyst pending.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Intuit is the dominant tax software (TurboTax) and SMB accounting (QuickBooks) provider with near-monopoly positions in both markets.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
TurboTax (consumer tax filing), QuickBooks (SMB accounting), Credit Karma (financial products), Mailchimp (marketing) |
| Who pays |
Consumers (tax filing), SMBs (accounting/payroll), financial product seekers (Credit Karma) |
| Revenue model |
Per-return fees (TurboTax), SaaS subscriptions (QuickBooks Online), lead-gen (Credit Karma) |
| How sticky |
Very high — users return to TurboTax annually with prior years' data; QuickBooks embedded in SMB ops |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Small Business (QuickBooks) |
~55% |
+18% YoY |
QuickBooks Online, payroll, payments |
| Consumer (TurboTax) |
~30% |
+8% YoY |
Seasonal Q2 concentration |
| Credit Karma |
~10% |
+20%+ YoY |
Recovering with rate environment |
| ProTax |
~5% |
+5% YoY |
CPA/accountant tools |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Multi-year tax history locked in TurboTax; QuickBooks data migration cost |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
TurboTax brand (#1 in consumer awareness), regulatory knowledge |
| Network effects |
🟡 |
QuickBooks App ecosystem (700+ integrations), accountant network |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Scale across 40M+ annual TurboTax filers |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Stable with AI risk (IRS Direct File, GenAI tax tools) worth monitoring
Key Risk: IRS Direct File
- IRS expanded Direct File program in 2025 to all 50 states
- Currently handles only simple returns (W-2 only, standard deductions)
- INTU's core TurboTax serves complex filers — above Direct File's scope
- Mitigation: TurboTax Live (human expert hybrid) growing rapidly
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
- Tax season catalyst — Feb-Apr is peak revenue quarter. RSI recovering into peak season is constructive.
- RSI 17.6 → 34.6 — Massive technical recovery; worst selling likely done.
- SMA gap tightening fast — From -15.9% to -6.5% in 4 days. Price-SMA convergence accelerating.
- QuickBooks AI integration — GenAI bookkeeping assistant could expand SMB TAM.
- Credit Karma recovery — With rates stabilizing, fintech lead-gen recovering.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| Strong tax season results in May earnings |
$500 (+28%) — re-rating on beat |
| QuickBooks AI drives SMB retention improvements |
$550 (+41%) |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
- IRS Direct File expansion — If Congress funds expansion to complex returns, TurboTax TAM shrinks.
- AI disruption — New AI-native tax tools (H&R Block AI, new entrants) at lower price points.
- Consumer recession — Fewer freelancers/gig workers file self-employed returns.
- Credit Karma headwinds — Fintech slowdown, lower loan origination fees.
Thesis Killers
- TurboTax market share declines >5% in one filing season
- QuickBooks Online net churn goes negative
- IRS Direct File expands to cover Schedule C (self-employed)
Entry Strategy
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$375 |
Recent trading floor |
| Support 2 |
$335 |
Stop-loss zone; 2022 lows |
| Resistance 1 |
$416.15 |
SMA20 — declining rapidly |
| Resistance 2 |
$460 |
3-month prior level |
| 52-week high |
$561.77 |
In-window high |
| 52-week low |
~$340 |
(estimated) |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$370 - $400 |
| Starter |
2-3% of portfolio |
| Add |
Post-tax season if strong filing data (May earnings beat) |
| Full |
RSI > 40 + above SMA confirmation |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 10.6 extreme. $399.40. Action: Strong Buy. Tax season catalyst. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price refresh. $380.55 (-4.7%). RSI 17.6 (improved from 10.6 but still extreme). 7D -4.8%. 30D -27.5%, 3M -42.5%, 52wkHi -52.7%. Selling continuing despite tax season. Maintaining Strong Buy but adding caution note. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price refresh. $389.33 (+2.3%). RSI 17.6 → 34.6 (largest improvement in coverage: +17 pts). SMA20 dropped from $452 to $416, gap tightened from -15.9% to -6.5%. 30D -30.7% (slightly worse base effect). 1D +2.1%, 7D +2.7% — positive momentum. Changed action to Accumulate. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 10.6 → 17.6 → 34.6 over 10 days |
Sustained RSI recovery — worst of capitulation is likely behind |
| SMA20 dropped from $452 → $416 → converging |
Price doesn't need to rise much for SMA to be reclaimed |
| 30D of -30.7% while 7D is +2.7% |
The 30D base effect will improve significantly by mid-March |
| Tax season is still underway |
Fundamental catalyst hasn't arrived yet — stock recovering before the news |
Open Questions
- Is the selloff driven by IRS Direct File fears or macro selling?
- What is TurboTax filing market share trend in 2026 tax season?
- How is Credit Karma performing in Q2 (rate stabilization thesis)?
- When does INTU report Q2 2026 (tax season results)?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| None yet |
RSI 17 → 34 recovery with SMA convergence = constructive setup for accumulation |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.