Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| IQV |
$162.31 |
-2.0% |
-8.4% |
-32.2% |
— |
-32.7% |
17↓ |
🔴 Extreme Oversold |
🔍 Watch |
Legend
- RSI
↓ = Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunity (but watch for continued deterioration)
- 52wkHi = -32.7% from $241.04 in-window peak
- 52wk Low = $135.97 (Apr 9, 2025)
- SMA20 = $195.64 (price is -17.0% below SMA)
Price vs Last Deep Dive (02/22)
| Metric |
02/22 |
02/26 |
Change |
| Price |
$165.62 |
$162.31 |
-$3.31 (-2.0%) |
| RSI |
25.5 |
17.4 |
-8.1 (deteriorating — alarming) |
| SMA20 |
$199.29 |
$195.64 |
-$3.65 |
| vs SMA |
-16.9% |
-17.0% |
No improvement — stuck far below SMA |
Update from 02/22: Concerning reversal. RSI slipped from 25.5 back down to 17.4 — the brief recovery attempt has failed. Price also dropped further from $165.62 to $162.31. The gap below SMA20 remains at -17% with no improvement. The -8.4% 7-day move is accelerating the downtrend. IQV is now approaching the Feb 12 capitulation levels ($156-157). If those break, the April 2025 low ($135.97) becomes the target. This remains research-only; no entry until RSI stabilizes above 20 for multiple days.
Company Overview
One-Liner
IQVIA provides data analytics, technology solutions, and contract research services to the life sciences industry.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Clinical trial management (CRO), healthcare data/analytics, technology platforms, commercial services |
| Who pays |
Pharma companies (90% of top 25 are clients), biotech firms, medical device companies, government agencies |
| Revenue model |
Long-term contracts (CRO), SaaS subscriptions (analytics), project-based (consulting) |
| How sticky |
Very high — multi-year CRO contracts, deeply embedded analytics platforms, proprietary data moat |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| R&D Solutions (R&DS) |
55% |
+4.3% YoY |
Clinical trial management, project monitoring — $8,896M in 2025 |
| Technology & Analytics (TAS) |
40% |
+7.6% YoY |
Cloud apps, real-world evidence, data analytics — $6,626M in 2025 |
| Contract Sales & Medical (CSMS) |
5% |
Flat |
HCP engagement, scientific strategy — $788M in 2025 (merging into TAS in 2026) |
Geographic Mix
| Region |
Revenue % |
Notes |
| Americas |
~50% |
US is core market |
| Europe/MEA |
~35% |
Strong CRO presence |
| Asia-Pacific |
~15% |
Growing |
Competitive Analysis
Industry Position
| Question |
Answer |
| Market share |
33% of global health analytics; #1 or #2 CRO globally |
| Market size (TAM) |
$84.6B CRO market (2025), growing to $126B by 2030 |
| Growth rate |
8.3% CAGR (CRO market) |
| Key competitors |
ICON plc ($7.8B rev), Thermo Fisher (PPD), LabCorp (Covance), Charles River Labs, Medpace |
| Position |
Leader — unique hybrid combining CRO + data/analytics |
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
More data from trials = better analytics = attracts more clients |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Multi-year contracts, deeply embedded platforms, proprietary data dependencies |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Scale across 100+ countries, largest CRO workforce globally |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Proprietary healthcare datasets covering 1B+ patient records, regulatory expertise |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
$16.3B revenue vs ICON's $7.8B — economies of scale in trial management |
Moat Assessment
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Widening (AI + data flywheel)
Management Assessment
Leadership
| Role |
Name |
Since |
Background |
Notes |
| CEO & Chairman |
Ari Bousbib |
Oct 2016 |
UPenn BA, Harvard MBA. Former CEO of IMS Health, CEO of Otis Elevator (UTC). Partner at Booz Allen Hamilton. |
Architect of Quintiles-IMS merger. Also on Home Depot board. |
| CFO |
Ron Bruehlman |
Aug 2020 |
40-year career. Former IMS Health CFO, UTC senior exec, ConocoPhillips. |
Deep financial ops experience. |
Capital Allocation
| Metric |
Track Record |
| M&A discipline |
Good — strategic tuck-ins to expand data/tech capabilities |
| Buyback timing |
Good — active repurchaser |
| R&D investment |
High — investing heavily in AI/agentic platforms |
| Debt management |
Moderate — $13B+ debt from merger, but generating strong FCF |
Red Flags
- Excessive exec compensation
- High turnover in key roles
- Related party transactions
- Aggressive accounting
- Net insider selling of -$39.8M (1 buy vs 11 sells) — not unusual for large-cap but worth noting
Financials
Key Metrics
| Metric |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Trend |
| Revenue |
$16,310M |
~$15,480M |
~$14,980M |
📈 |
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+5.4% |
+3.3% |
+3.4% |
📈 Accelerating |
| Adj. EBITDA |
~$3,800M |
~$3,600M |
~$3,500M |
📈 |
| Adj. EPS |
$11.92 |
$11.13 |
$10.37 |
📈 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA |
~3.4x |
~3.5x |
~3.6x |
📈 Deleveraging |
Leading Indicators
| Indicator |
Value |
Signal |
| Revenue Acceleration |
-2.84% |
🟡 Decelerating slightly |
| YoY Growth |
+5.2% |
🟡 Moderate |
| Earnings Beat Rate |
100% |
🟢🟢 STRONG |
| Insider Trading |
-$39.8M net (1 buy, 11 sells) |
🟡 Neutral |
| Composite |
0.4 |
🟡 Neutral |
Valuation
Current Multiples
| Metric |
Current |
5Y Avg |
Industry Avg |
| P/E (trailing) |
~14x |
~50x |
~25x |
| P/E (forward) |
~13x |
~25x |
~20x |
| EV/EBITDA |
~10x |
~15x |
~14x |
| P/S |
~1.7x |
~3.5x |
~3.0x |
Note: At $162.31, market cap ~$26B. Multiples near 5Y floor.
Fair Value Estimate
| Method |
Fair Value |
Upside/Downside |
| DCF (historical avg P/E 25x fwd) |
$320 |
+97% |
| Comps (18x fwd EPS) |
$231 |
+42% |
| Conservative (15x fwd EPS) |
$193 |
+19% |
Fair Value Estimate: $210-$230 (based on 16-18x forward EPS of $12.70 midpoint guidance)
Bull Case
Why This Could Work (5 Reasons)
- Extreme valuation compression — Trading at ~13x forward P/E vs 5Y avg ~25x. EV/EBITDA at 5Y lows.
- AI/agentic platform catalyst — Strategic AWS partnership, deploying agentic AI across clinical trials.
- Irreplaceable data moat — 1B+ patient records, 33% health analytics share, 90% of top pharma are clients.
- CRO market tailwinds — CRO market growing at 8.3% CAGR to $126B by 2030.
- Consistent execution — 100% earnings beat rate, steady revenue growth acceleration.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| AI platform drives TAS growth to 10%+ |
$230 (+42%) |
| Broader market recovery + multiple normalization |
$250 (+54%) |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong (4 Risks)
- Clinical trial cancellations accelerating — Biotech funding pullback leads to more cancellations.
- Debt burden — ~$13B debt with $80M step-up in interest expense in 2026.
- 2026 EPS guidance below expectations — $12.55-$12.85 guidance disappointed consensus.
- Competition from specialized AI analytics — New entrants with superior AI capabilities.
Thesis Killers
- R&DS backlog declining for 3+ consecutive quarters
- Major pharma client defecting to competitor
- Debt covenant breach or downgrade to junk
Downside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| Guidance cut + continued cancellations |
$135 (-17%) — retest April 2025 lows |
| Recession hits pharma R&D budgets |
$120 (-26%) — new 52-week lows |
Market-Moving News
Historical (What Moved This Stock Before)
| Date |
Event |
Impact |
Market Reaction |
Lesson |
| Jan 2026 |
Strong rally from $225 to $247 |
+10% |
Overbought (RSI 86) |
IQVIA overshoots in both directions |
| Feb 5, 2026 |
Q4 2025 earnings + 2026 guidance cut |
-22% in days |
Massive selloff despite revenue beat |
Guidance > beats for this stock |
| Apr 2025 |
Tariff/macro selloff |
-25% |
Hit $136 52wk low |
Recovered fully in 9 months |
| Nov 2025 |
IQVIA cuts 2025 EBITDA guidance |
-5% |
Moderate selloff |
Guidance sensitivity is a pattern |
Recent News
| Date |
Headline |
Source |
Impact |
Relevance |
| Feb 5, 2026 |
Q4 2025 earnings beat but 2026 EPS guidance below consensus ($12.55-$12.85) |
BusinessWire |
🔴 |
Triggered -22% selloff |
| Feb 12, 2026 |
Stock hit $156.67 intraday low, volume 7M (5x normal) |
Market data |
🔴 |
Capitulation volume |
| Dec 2025 |
AWS named Preferred Agentic Cloud Provider for AI platform |
Nasdaq |
🟢 |
Long-term AI catalyst |
| Feb 2026 |
Segment restructure: CSMS merging into TAS (renamed "Commercial Solutions") |
SEC filings |
🟡 |
Operational simplification |
Entry Strategy
Position Sizing
| Conviction |
Allocation |
| Speculative |
0% (research only) |
| Low |
1-2% |
| Medium |
3-5% |
My conviction: Medium
Target allocation: 2-3% (when entry conditions met)
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$155 - $170 (current levels) |
| Entry trigger |
RSI stabilizes above 20 for 3+ consecutive days |
| Starter position |
1% of portfolio |
| Add on |
Stabilization above $175 with RSI > 25 |
| Full position at |
Confirmation of Q1 2026 guidance being met |
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$157 |
Feb 12 intraday low area — now being retested |
| Support 2 |
$136 |
April 2025 52-week low |
| Resistance 1 |
$187 |
Feb 6 close (post-earnings) |
| Resistance 2 |
$195.64 |
SMA20 |
| 52-week high |
$241.04 |
In-window high |
| 52-week low |
$135.97 |
Apr 9, 2025 |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-15 |
Created deep dive. RSI 14 extreme oversold. -31% 30D on guidance miss. Wide moat, 100% earnings beat rate, fair value $210-$230. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price refresh. Price $165.62 (-0.8% from 02/15). RSI improved from 14 to 25.5 — stabilization. 30D still -31.4%. SMA20 $199.29. Still in research/watch mode. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price deteriorated. $162.31 (-2.0% from 02/22). RSI slipped from 25.5 → 17.4 (reversal of recovery). -8.4% in 7 days, -32.2% in 30 days. No stabilization forming. Approaching Feb 12 low ($156.67). Status: Research/Watch. Wait for RSI to hold above 20. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 14 → 25 → 17 (failed recovery) |
Sustained institutional selling; no bottom formed yet |
| Price approaching Feb 12 capitulation low ($156.67) |
Key support — if it breaks, next stop is $136 |
| 100% earnings beat rate vs current 13x fwd P/E |
If guidance was conservative, significant re-rating upside |
| RSI 14 on 02/15, still 17 on 02/26 |
11 days of extreme oversold — institutional selling ongoing |
Open Questions
- Is the Q4 cancellation trend in R&DS worsening or stabilizing?
- Has RSI been suppressed by forced institutional selling (index funds rebalancing)?
- What is the AI platform revenue contribution timeline?
- Is the $13B debt a concern given rising refinancing costs?
- Will the Feb 12 low ($156.67) hold, or does IQV retest the $136 April 2025 low?
Mistakes (If Applicable)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| N/A — not entered yet |
RSI bounced briefly to 25.5 then reverted — shows importance of waiting for sustained stabilization, not single-day RSI improvement |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.